Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the composite copper foil industry, highlighting significant growth potential and market opportunities. Core Insights - The composite copper foil industry has recently overcome key production challenges, particularly the laser welding yield issue, which has been resolved since December 2024, enabling mass production and cost reduction [2]. - Major battery manufacturers are expected to complete order processes for approximately 16GW of production capacity by Q2 2025, indicating initial market demand release [2]. - The price of lithium battery copper foil has been on the rise since 2020, with costs now approaching 20% of lithium iron phosphate battery production, prompting a shift towards composite copper foil to mitigate cost pressures [2][4]. - The initial pricing for composite conductive fluid is set at 4.5 yuan per square meter, offering a 16% cost advantage over traditional copper foil, with expectations for further price reductions in the coming years [2][6]. - The composite conductive fluid market is projected to reach a space of approximately 48 billion square meters by 2030, with potential profits estimated between 14.4 billion to 24 billion yuan [12]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Changes - The composite copper foil industry has received around 2GW of mass production orders since January 2025, with major battery manufacturers confirming procurement plans [2][3]. - Sodium green materials have secured 1 billion yuan in financing for expansion, reinforcing their position as a core supplier [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The copper foil cost in lithium batteries has increased significantly, with prices rising from 40,000 yuan per ton in 2020 to over 80,000 yuan currently, leading to a shift towards more cost-effective materials [4]. - The annual procurement volume for copper foil in global power batteries is estimated to be between 120 billion to 130 billion yuan, expected to exceed 250 billion yuan by 2030 [4]. Production and Technology - The composite conductive fluid has transitioned from P&T to PTC testing, with all yield issues resolved by 2024, entering a phase of large-scale production [7]. - The multi-porous structure of composite copper foil addresses technical challenges in fast charging and solid-state battery applications, indicating its broad applicability [2][8]. Future Projections - Global lithium battery shipments are expected to reach 1,900-2,000GWh in 2024 and grow to 4,000GWh by 2030, driving demand for composite conductive fluid [12]. - The equipment investment required for this transition is estimated to be between 120 billion to 160 billion yuan, with a need for over 100 billion yuan in capital expenditure in the next five years [12].

中金公司 2 月社融信贷解读 20250315 摘要 • 2 月新增社融主要由政府债券驱动，占比高达 70%，反映政府财政发力对 经济的支撑作用，但人民币贷款表现疲软，仅为 6,500 亿，表明实体经济 内生动力不足。 • 尽管存款同比多增，但市场流动性依然偏紧，M1 增速下滑，表明存款增 加并未有效转化为实体经济的流动性宽松，可能反映金融机构资金运用保 守。 • 信贷结构出现分化，公司贷款同比正增长，但居民中长期贷款减少，与商 品房销售结构变化有关，消费恢复力度仍显不足。 • 大行和中小行信贷结构差异显著，1 月大行依赖票据贴现冲量，2 月信贷 均同比多增但低于去年同期，反映项目减少和实体经济需求疲软。 • 票据贴现和非银贷款在信贷增长中扮演重要角色，表明信贷需求不理想， 存在冲量特征，非银机构融资困难也是非银贷款增加的原因。 • 存款利率下降加剧金融脱媒，资金流向固收产品，理财产品超季节性多增， 但大行负债荒导致流动性偏紧，银行间市场资金价格高企。 • 中小银行存款充裕，积极购债，而大行面临负债荒，抛售债券，预计未来 1-2 个月可能降准，以缓解大行负债荒并改善流动性。 Q&A 今年 2 月份的社融数据为 ...

• 恒生指数和恒生科技指数的显著涨幅超过其他主要市场指数，为固收加基 金通过增加港股配置以提升收益弹性提供了机会。 • 固收加港股策略产品以纯债为基础，配置港股红利和科技龙头，构建攻守 兼备的投资组合，契合个人投资者需求，具有发展潜力。 • 截至 2024 年四季度末，固收加港股策略产品数量同比增长超 50%，规模增 长超 15%，在固收加基金整体规模下降的背景下逆势增长，市场份额显著 提升。 • 2024 年固收加港股策略基金收益中位数达 7.95%，在不同细分品类固收加 基金中表现最佳，且 2025 年初累计收益中位数超过全样本水平，显示出较 强的盈利能力。 • 固收加基金对港股资产配置比例显著提升，从 2024 年一季度末的 7.8%提 高到四季度的 11.3%，通过配置香港上市公司来补足传统周期与高科技板 块缺口。 • 固收加基金在港股持仓上侧重防御性，偏好传统周期、高股息标的和互联 网龙头，而主动权益基金更偏向成长性和科技领域，持仓更为分散。 • 2024 年四季度，固收加港股策略产品增持高分红资源品和低估值周期股， 并有限参与成长股反弹，同时减持腾讯幅度超过主动权益基金，体现其较 低的风险偏好。 ...

是香港市场近期投融资活跃度提升。中金公司国际业务收入占比最高，其中绝 大部分来自香港市场。今年（2025 年）香港市场 IPO 同比提升接近 80%，首次 聆讯公告数量增加了 2 倍，这些变化将最终反映在一季度或之后的券商股业绩 中。 第三个因素是行业供给侧改革和并购重组。在供给侧集中的大环境下，中 金和银河合并的消息虽然未被确认，但投资者对头部券商合并仍抱有期望。证 券行业需要通过整合提升经营效率，相较于国际一流投行，中国券商在规模体 量上存在巨大差异，因此需要通过并购重组形成规模优势。 综上所述，中金 H 股目前处于低估值、有业绩弹性，同时受益于行业供给侧改革，是一个相对左 侧投资的时间窗口。 2025 年国内 IPO 市场前景如何？对中金公司有哪些影响？ 中金公司 20250313 摘要 Q&A 请问推荐中金公司的主要原因是什么？ 推荐中金公司有几个主要原因。首先是估值方面的安全边际。尽管自年初以来， 中金的 H 股已累计上涨约 25%，但其市净率（PB）仅为 0.76 倍，仍处于净资产 折价状态。与银行不同，券商整体杠杆较低，经营风险较小，券商行业的杠杆 大约为 4 到 5 倍，而银行普遍超过 10 ...

中金公司 红海复航不确定性增加，中国集运公司有望补涨 红海护航的不确定性对市场预期有何影响？ 红海护航的不确定性较高，从第二轮停火协议推进的曲折性以及胡塞武装组织 重新攻打以色列船舶等事件可以看出这一点。根据克拉克森的数据，截至 2 月 底，红海区域整体船舶和集装箱船舶通行量分别下降了 5 艘和 4 艘。红海不能 如期复航的概率在提升，因为胡塞武装组织态度才真正决定红海通行是否安全。 此外，从保险角度来看，需要联合战争险委员会将红海区域风险等级从当前高 风险地区下调，否则传动仍需面临较高保险成本。因此，我们认为红海复航会 面临很多不确定性，市场预期也会反复变化。 美国 301 调查可能带来哪些影响？ 20250312 摘要 Q&A 近期中国集运公司股价表现如何，与海外公司相比有何差异？ 自 1 月 19 日加沙停火协议生效以来，国内集运公司的股价普遍跑输于海外公司。 具体来看，海丰国际、中国远洋海控和东方海外的股价均出现个位数跌幅，而 马士基、ZIM 以及台湾和日韩的一些集运公司的股价则上涨了 10%到 20%。这种 • 红海护航不确定性增加，胡塞武装态度及保险成本制约复航，市场预期反 复。克拉克森数据显示， ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades ZTE Corporation (H/A) to Buy from Neutral with new price objectives of HK$32 for H shares and CNY45 for A shares [1][15][17]. Core Insights - ZTE's server business is expected to see robust expansion in 2024, driven by increased orders from Chinese telecom companies and cloud service providers (CSPs) [1][12][43]. - Despite potential near-term earnings pressure due to a soft carrier business, ZTE is positioned for a re-rating based on a positive outlook for China's Internet Data Centers (IDCs), share gain potential amid rising server demand, and its in-house CPU capabilities [1][12][15]. - The valuation of ZTE is supported by a re-rating of China IDC names, reflecting the market's growing confidence in server demand, particularly with the acceleration of AI applications [16][17]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating Changes - ZTE-H's price objective is raised to HK$32 from HK$21, and ZTE-A's price objective is lifted to CNY45 from CNY31 [3][17]. - The report reflects a change in earnings estimates for 2025-26, with a reduction of 12-17% due to margin pressures [17][18]. Financial Performance - ZTE's server sales nearly doubled year-on-year to CNY10 billion in 2024, representing an 8% mix, primarily due to breakthroughs with major CSPs [2][43]. - The company is expected to maintain robust growth into 2025-26, supported by strong capital expenditures from CSPs and a focus on data centers by Chinese telecoms [2][43]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that ZTE-H/ZTE-A trades at a discount compared to other Chinese server peers, with a current P/E of 13x for 2026E [1][32]. - The valuation gap between ZTE-A and ZTE-H has become volatile, suggesting that historical valuation trends may be more suitable for assessing ZTE-A's value [17][32].

国内及海外市场策略（三） - 中金公司 2025 年度春季投 资策略会 摘要 • 中国股债相关性转负，美国股债相关性转正，反映通胀环境差异。中国市 场关注增长，股债负相关；美国高通胀下，股债易正相关。 • 中国股票波动率或趋势下行，美国则可能上行。低利率环境通常伴随低波 动，美国高通胀、高利率政策周期导致其波动率上升。 • 中外资产相关性降低，经济基本面周期脱钩，中国与海外资产价格脱钩， 中国资产估值便宜，为全球组合提供分散风险价值。 • 更新黄金多因子模型至 2.0 版本，预测未来十年黄金价格可能涨至 3,000- 5,000 美元，长期看好，但短期关税恐慌或致流动性溢价不确定性。 • 战略性超配中国股票，因其估值便宜且能分散风险。中国市场具备长期增 长潜力，与海外市场关联度降低，是全球投资组合重要部分。 • 2025 年第一季度市场超预期，因特朗普关税低于预期、中国出口分散度 提升、Deepseek 提振风险偏好，中国股票表现优异。 • 美股脆弱性源于两年内标普 500 累计涨幅达 50%后的均值回归风险及估 值过高，建议适度降低海外资产仓位并控制风险。 Q&A 去年（2024 年）11 月发布的 202 ...

中金公司 风光公用半月谈 摘要 • 光伏组件市场竞争格局优化，龙头企业市占率提升，CR5 市占率从 2 月的 55%升至近 65%，CR10 超过 80%，二三线企业在分布式领域竞争，行 业出清趋势未变。 • 光伏产业链下游组件和电子产品价格上涨，硅料供应量约 10 万吨，硅片 排产约 50GW，电池片和组件排产均超 55GW，产业链堵点仍在硅片环节， 需观察库存以推动产业链涨价。 • 光伏新技术关注无银化和铜电镀，聚合和帝科提出不同无银化方案，国电 投推进 HJT 加铜电镀产线产业化，通威积极推进 HJT 加铜电镀互联方案， 龙头企业或国企可能推动新技术发展。 • 玻璃价格在 13.5 至 14 元/平方米，组件端博弈激烈，涨幅受压，预计四 月有小幅上调空间。涨价原因是二线企业亏损、供给低于出货量、库存消 耗及胶基酸钠价格上涨。 • 玻璃市场长期价格预计维持在 14 至 14.5 元/平方米，待库存耗尽后，若 无进一步需求，价格将保持稳定。龙头企业已实现净利润回正，二线企业 仍亏损，面临产能调整。 Q&A 目前光伏组件市场竞争格局进一步优化，龙头企业市占率持续提升。CR5（前 五大企业）的市占率从二月份的 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential range for the Hang Seng Index between 23,000 and 25,000 points, depending on market sentiment and earnings per share (EPS) realization [1][5]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance early in the year, primarily driven by small-cap stocks and market liquidity, but foreign long-term capital has not significantly flowed in yet [1][2][3]. - The divergence in performance between the US and Hong Kong stock markets is attributed to factors such as tariffs, inflation, and the development of AI, which have led to different re-evaluations of Chinese assets [1][6]. - The development of AI is significantly impacting both US and Chinese capital markets, with US AI companies facing tariff and inflation pressures, while AI is driving growth in China's technology sector [1][7][8]. - The macroeconomic environment in China is facing leverage issues, necessitating a focus on structural policies rather than aggregate policies, with an emphasis on lowering costs and improving return expectations [4][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a rapid increase post-Chinese New Year, driven by technology sentiment, particularly in software services [2]. - Less than 20% of the companies in the Hang Seng Index have outperformed the index itself, highlighting a structural characteristic of the market [2]. Capital Flows - Current data indicates that foreign long-term capital has not significantly entered the Hong Kong market, with trading funds dominating the market dynamics [3]. Economic Predictions - Static calculations suggest that if market sentiment returns to historical highs, the Hang Seng Index could reach between 23,000 and 25,000 points, contingent on EPS realization [5]. - The report emphasizes that the current range of 23,000 to 24,000 points already reflects much of the first phase of Chinese asset re-evaluation [5]. US-China Market Dynamics - The contrasting performance of US and Hong Kong markets is influenced by tariffs, inflation, and AI developments, leading to different asset re-evaluation outcomes [6]. - The report notes that the US economy is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [10][14]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends exploring investment opportunities across four dimensions: dividends, overseas expansion, new consumption, and technology [4][18]. - It suggests a structural adjustment approach rather than aggressive leverage, with a focus on individual stock opportunities in the context of broader market trends [18][19].

中金公司 宏观策略周论：两会的市场影响 摘要 • 港股估值处于历史低位，尤其零售、媒体娱乐和消费者服务等板块。股息 率高于国债利率，表明市场估值未过度亢奋。本轮反弹主要由风险溢价驱 动，AI 产业带来的科技行业重估是乐观预期的主要来源。 • 全球资金流动呈现"东升西落"趋势，港股受益于南向资金流入和科技产 业趋势增强。中国两会期间出台的政策措施和中国资产重估前景也提振了 市场情绪。短期内该趋势可能持续，但长期持续性需观察宏观经济环境和 政策变化。 • 市场情绪亢奋主要受 AI 叙事提振和资金来源影响。南向资金大举涌入导致 AH 溢价快速回落，表明其对估值、情绪和定价权有显著影响。上周南向 资金略微减少，海外资金流入不够持续，长线外资仍在流出。 • 港股静态估值不高，但动态估值已较为亢奋。短期市场空间取决于情绪能 否继续提升，中期需分别评估不同板块的驱动因素。科技板块绝对估值依 然便宜，但需注意盈利性差异。若科技股回到 2021 年高点，对应恒指可 达 25,000 点左右。 Q&A 港股市场在经历了近期的大幅反弹后，估值水平如何？是否仍有投资机会？ 从静态估值角度来看，港股市场目前的估值水平相对较低。恒生指数 ...