Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the financial sector, with strong performance in credit and social financing data exceeding market expectations [2][3]. Core Insights - March financial data showed a total credit issuance of 3.6 trillion yuan, surpassing the market expectation of 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating stable demand from major projects despite weaker demand from SMEs and private enterprises [2][5]. - Social financing reached 5.9 trillion yuan in March, driven primarily by government bond issuance, which increased by 1 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights a decline in non-bank deposits, which decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan, contributing to an overall reduction in deposits by 500 billion yuan [7][12]. - M1 growth improved to 1.6% in March, supported by increased demand for corporate current deposits due to debt swaps and major project initiations [10]. - The report notes that the U.S. banking sector faces challenges from rising interest rates and a potential stagflation environment, which could impact credit growth and asset quality, particularly for smaller banks [13][14]. Summary by Sections Credit Data - In March, credit issuance totaled 3.6 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from short-term corporate loans and long-term residential loans, although overall residential loans showed a slight decrease [5]. - The report indicates a declining trend in the real leverage level reflected by medium- and long-term loans since 2023, attributed to reduced borrowing willingness among residents [5]. Social Financing - Social financing in March reached 5.9 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations, with government bonds being the main contributor, while corporate bonds lagged due to interest rate adjustments [3][4]. Deposit Trends - March saw a year-on-year decrease in deposits by 500 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in non-bank deposits [7][12]. - The decline in non-bank deposits was linked to market volatility and redemption of financial products, which temporarily alleviated pressure on large banks [11][12]. Future Outlook - The report suggests uncertainty in future data, emphasizing the need to monitor government bond issuance and credit trends, as well as the impact of trade tensions and real estate policies on economic performance [6][16]. - It anticipates potential monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, to support financial data and banking performance amid external pressures [16][17]. Banking Sector Resilience - Chinese banks, particularly large listed banks, exhibit strong resilience with high provisioning coverage and ample financial resources to withstand additional losses [17][18]. - The report highlights that despite challenges in the U.S. banking sector, Chinese banks are less affected by external bond market fluctuations due to minimal exposure to foreign bonds [15][17].

中金公司 从美国看美国（20250413）- 关税加剧股债波动、 特朗普关税政策在过去一周内经历了多次调整。首先，他暂停了部分国家的关 税 90 天，但提高了对中国的关税，随后又宣布对一些半导体和消费电子产品进 行豁免。这些变化使得美国有效关税税率从去年（2024 年）的 2.4%大幅上升到 25%，在暂停其他国家关税并增加中国关税后进一步提升至 30.8%。电子产品豁 免后，计算结果显示降至 28.4%左右。虽然有所下降，但幅度并不大。 对于美 国经济指标，包括通胀和增长的影响，半导体和电子产品豁免预计可降低美国 CPI 约 0.2 个百分点，即从之前预期推高 2.3 个百分点降至 2.1 个百分点。这 • 美国有效关税税率大幅上升，从 2024 年的 2.4%增至 25%，增加中国关税后 达 30.8%，电子产品豁免后降至 28.4%，但对通胀的宏观影响有限，预计降 低 CPI 约 0.2 个百分点。 • 受关税政策冲击，美国资本市场出现剧烈波动，股市暴涨暴跌，VIX 指数 一度接近 60，高收益债利差显著上升，融资难度和违约风险增加，国债收 益率出现异常提升。 • 企业对未来现金流预期不确定性增加，导致 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for companies with strong domestic sales and flexible supply chains, particularly Haier and Hisense [2][9][10]. Core Insights - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese home appliance companies varies significantly, with some companies like Haier benefiting from higher local production capacity [2][12]. - Chinese home appliance firms are leveraging their supply chain stability and scale advantages to maintain competitiveness despite tariff-induced price increases [6][15]. - The long-term changes in tariff policies are expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the home appliance industry, favoring larger companies with resilient production capabilities [15]. Summary by Sections U.S. Market Exposure - Midea's revenue from the U.S. market is approximately 20% of its total export revenue, while Haier's is close to 60%, with a significant portion sourced from local suppliers [2]. - Gree has minimal exposure to the U.S. market, with only about 2% of its revenue coming from there [2]. - Hisense's revenue from the U.S. market is around 10%-20%, primarily sourced from Mexico [2]. Strategies to Mitigate Tariff Impact - Companies are adopting various strategies such as price increases and shifting production to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [4][15]. - Major OEMs like Dechang and Xinbao are relocating factories to countries like Vietnam and Indonesia to reduce tariff exposure [3][4]. Consumer Impact - The additional costs from tariffs will ultimately be passed on to U.S. consumers, leading to higher product prices and potential economic pressure [5][6]. Competitive Advantages - Haier's higher local production in the U.S. provides a competitive edge over rivals like Samsung and Electrolux [12]. - Hisense's production in Mexico allows it to effectively cover the U.S. market, potentially increasing market share despite overall demand decline [11]. Companies with Strong Domestic Market Focus - Gree Electric is well-positioned due to its low export ratio and strong domestic sales, which are less affected by U.S. tariffs [9]. - Other companies like Supor and Boss Electric also show resilience due to high domestic sales and cash dividend rates [9]. Future Areas of Interest - The report suggests monitoring the kitchen appliance sector and companies with global production capabilities that can adapt to tariff changes, such as Hisense [10].

Q&A 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响是什么？ 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响主要体现在粮价的短期冲击有限，聚焦粮食安 全和内需提振。大豆等主要农产品的贸易摩擦已经很难大幅推升粮食价格，因 为自 2018 年以来的产业链转移已显著提升应对农产品贸易冲击能力。农业板块 核心催化因素有两大主线：一是自主可控必要性进一步提升，保障粮食安全主 要抓手是种业振兴；二是在内循环重要性增强背景下，内需提振带来的畜禽产 • 中国农产品贸易应对能力显著提升，农业板块核心催化剂包括自主可控需 求驱动的种业振兴，以及内需提振带来的畜禽产品价格回暖预期，进而带 动产业链业绩反转。 • 种植链中，大豆、高粱价格小幅上涨，玉米基本面偏紧，库存消费比处于 十年低位，利好种植链业绩。种业振兴战略强化，生物育种技术储备领先 公司受益。 • 养殖链受贸易摩擦影响较小，内需提振直接拉动鸡肉、水产、猪肉价格。 美国祖代鸡引种暂停导致供给偏紧预期，餐饮需求复苏拉动鸡肉需求定价 边际好转。 • 消费链方面，常规代工短期利空，但全球布局优质产能代工利好，高端品 牌布局国货长期利多。进口宠物食品成本提升，国货龙头性价比凸显。 • 生猪供给持续增加，猪价易跌难涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the construction and building materials sector, emphasizing its resilience to tariffs and trade wars due to its reliance on domestic demand [2][3]. Core Insights - The construction and building materials sector is expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus aimed at domestic consumption and infrastructure projects, making it a key investment focus [3][6]. - Supply-side reforms are likely to favor sectors such as cement, fiberglass, and steel, which are positioned to benefit from reduced competition and improved profitability [3][8]. - Defensive stocks with high cash flow, high ROE, and high dividend yields are highlighted as valuable during market volatility, particularly cement and state-owned enterprises [3][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities Post-Tariff - The construction and building materials sector remains attractive post-tariff due to its focus on domestic demand and local operations, making it less vulnerable to external shocks [2][3]. - Key beneficiaries include sectors directly impacted by fiscal policies, such as cement and consumer building materials [3][8]. Demand Factors for Building Materials - There are clear demand drivers for building materials, particularly from infrastructure projects and consumer home improvements, indicating a stable outlook for both B-end and C-end demand [6][17]. Sector Selection Strategy - The report suggests a balanced approach between defensive cement stocks and more aggressive consumer building materials, with a preference for companies like Three Trees and North New Materials [4][7]. Cement Industry Outlook - The cement sector is projected to see improved demand driven by fiscal stimulus, with expectations for a stable or improving national cement shipment rate [10][13]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming demand season [10][13]. Glass Industry Forecast - The glass sector faces challenges due to declining construction-related demand, but low export exposure and potential rebounds in the second half of the year are noted [11][13]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are highlighted for their resilience and dividend yield, making them suitable for investment [11][13]. Fiberglass Sector Analysis - The fiberglass industry is less affected by tariffs due to low export ratios, with strong domestic demand in wind energy and thermoplastics providing a buffer [12][13]. - China Jushi is identified as a key player with a strong position in North America and Europe, mitigating tariff impacts [12][13]. Consumer Building Materials Market - The consumer building materials market is experiencing a decline in demand for waterproof materials, while gypsum board demand remains stable [17][19]. - Companies like North New Materials and Three Trees are noted for their strong performance and strategic pricing approaches [19][20]. Future Demand Drivers - Future demand in the consumer building materials sector is expected to be driven by infrastructure and home renovation projects, with Three Trees positioned for aggressive growth [24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the increasing market share of leading companies and the ongoing trends in production and pricing [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The competitive landscape of the photovoltaic module market is improving, with the market share of the top five companies (CR5) rising from 55% in February to nearly 65%, and the top ten companies (CR10) exceeding 80% [2][4]. - The supply of silicon materials is approximately 100,000 tons, with wafer production scheduled at around 50GW, while both battery and module production exceed 55GW, indicating bottlenecks primarily in the wafer segment [2][6]. - New technologies such as silver-free and copper plating are gaining attention, with companies like Guodian and Tongwei actively promoting these innovations [2][7][9]. - Glass prices are currently between 13.5 and 14 RMB per square meter, with slight upward adjustments expected in April due to supply-demand dynamics and cost increases [2][14][15]. - The report anticipates that the photovoltaic industry will continue to concentrate around leading companies, with new technologies playing a crucial role in cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Industry Developments - The photovoltaic industry has seen significant production increases, with March production estimated to have grown by over 35% compared to February, aligning with annual strategy forecasts [3]. - The competitive dynamics are shifting, with leading companies gaining market share while smaller firms face challenges in large-scale projects and overseas markets [4][5]. Pricing Trends - Downstream component prices are rising, with silicon material supply remaining stable, leading to expectations of gradual inventory depletion [6]. - The glass market is expected to stabilize at prices between 14 and 14.5 RMB per square meter, contingent on demand recovery [15][16]. Technological Innovations - Key innovations in the industry include silver-free and copper plating technologies, which are expected to drive future growth and efficiency [7][9][10]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring developments in various segments to assess their impact on market dynamics and pricing trends [9]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry will continue to evolve, with a focus on leading companies and the adoption of new technologies [9][10]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of stable growth and potential price increases as inventory levels adjust [18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has led to significant market volatility, with the effective tax rate in the US reaching its highest point in nearly a century, at least 23% [2][4] - The tariffs are expected to increase inflation by approximately two percentage points, raising overall inflation to between 4% and 5%, which complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [8][11] - The market is currently facing liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and concerns regarding the strength of the US dollar, which could impact GDP by at least 0.7 percentage points and reduce profit expectations to around 5% [11][12] Summary by Sections Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The tariffs have resulted in a uniform 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners, with some partners, like China, facing additional tariffs due to non-tariff barriers [2][4] - Market reactions include a sell-off of high-valuation stocks, a decline in US equities and the dollar, and a rise in bonds and gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][5] Future Monetary Policy Framework - Future monetary policy will need to address domestic liquidity and policy space, with central banks potentially taking measures to counteract market volatility caused by tariffs [6] - The liquidity risk can be monitored through indicators like the VIX index, with current issues primarily concentrated in the stock market [7] Inflation and Economic Growth - The tariffs are projected to push inflation higher, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and increasing the risk of stagflation [8][11] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased competition in the tech sector and the impact of tariffs on cross-border capital flows [9][10] Specific Industry Impacts - The tariffs will significantly affect export-oriented sectors in China, with an overall tariff level exceeding 70% for certain goods, leading to a need for fiscal support to mitigate profit losses [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face pressure, with potential volatility increasing due to external challenges from the tariffs [13] Long-term Risks and Considerations - The report highlights three main risks: liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and the influence of the dollar on global capital allocation [11] - The reciprocal tariffs may lead to a broader impact on global trade dynamics, affecting specialized supply chains and trade relationships [24]

Investment Ratings - The report includes a "Buy" rating for MediaTek, CR Land, Weichai Power, and Krafton, while removing Advantest, Delta Electronics, Keppel Ltd, and Zijin Mining from the APAC Conviction List [1]. Core Insights - MediaTek is transitioning from a traditional smartphone application processor provider to an AI-focused company, with expected revenue and earnings growth of 16% and 17% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, respectively [2][24]. - CR Land is positioned for recovery in business growth and profitability, with forecasts indicating a re-acceleration in contract sales growth and market share gains [3][41]. - Weichai Power is expected to benefit from an improving outlook for heavy-duty trucks and a more profitable engine portfolio, with a forecasted 18% EPS CAGR over two years [4]. - Krafton's PUBG franchise is anticipated to drive earnings, with a focus on strong performance in upcoming results [5][9]. Summary by Company MediaTek - Positioned to transition to AI applications, with a forecasted revenue growth of 16% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, driven by market share gains and new total addressable markets (TAMs) [2][24][25]. - Expected operating margin (OpM) improvement from 19% in 2025 to 22% in 2027 [25]. - Current trading at 16x/13x FY26/27E P/E, at the mid/low-end of its historical range [26]. CR Land - Forecasts indicate contract sales growth re-acceleration and market share gains, with a projected gross profit margin recovery to 18% by 2027 [3][41]. - Expected average free cash flow (FCF) yield of 11% during 2025-2027 [3]. - Current share price implies a compelling valuation at 0.4x P/B on its development property business [3]. Weichai Power - Anticipated re-rating due to improved cyclical outlook for heavy-duty trucks and a more profitable engine portfolio [4]. - Forecasted gradual increase in dividend payout supported by strong net cash position and FCF generation [4]. - Currently trades at 10x 2025E P/E with a 6% dividend yield [4]. Krafton - Focus on the strong momentum of the PUBG franchise as a key earnings driver [5][9]. - Expected to outperform consensus estimates in upcoming earnings release [9]. - Currently trading at near-historical trough level at 12x 2025E P/E [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Tencent, Xiaomi, PDD, JD, NetEase, YMM, TAL, TCOM, BYD, AMEC, Concordia, GDS, and Kuaishou [1][5][8][9][10][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from AI infrastructure to AI applications, highlighting key stock ideas around the secular AI theme [1]. - It identifies five overarching themes and stock preferences, advocating a dual-pronged approach focusing on domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive games with solid global footprints [1]. - The report outlines expected sales volume growth for BYD, projecting 5.5 million units in 2025, a 29% year-over-year increase, with a stable market share of 35% in China's NEV sales [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in Japan's tech sector around July-September, driven by a cyclical upturn and AI impact, with key stock recommendations including Murata Mfg, TDK, and Renesas [5]. - In the India QSR sector, the report expects a recovery in demand trends in the first half of FY26, with Domino's projected to outperform with 10% year-over-year LFL sales growth [5]. - AMEC is highlighted for its new product developments and increased R&D spending, with a positive outlook for growth [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections China Internet - The report discusses key investor focuses and debates following the China Internet results season, emphasizing stock ideas related to AI applications [1]. Japan Tech - The report notes early signs of recovery in Japan's tech sector, with a focus on production increases in edge AI devices expected around July-September [5]. BYD - BYD is projected to achieve a sales volume of 5.5 million units in 2025, with improvements in gross and net margins due to cost reduction efforts [5]. India QSR - The report anticipates a sluggish demand trend in Q4 FY25 but expects a recovery in the first half of FY26, with specific growth projections for Domino's and other QSR players [5]. AMEC - AMEC's recent product announcements and R&D advancements are expected to drive solid growth, with a target price set at Rmb275 [5]. Concordia Financial - Concordia Financial aims for a 9% ROE by FY3/28, reflecting a significant increase in net profits [9]. GDS Holdings - GDS's public REIT offering has been approved, with a projected distribution yield of 5.5% for 2025 [9]. Kuaishou - Kuaishou's advertising strategy focuses on content consumption ads and AI benefits, with confidence in achieving solid targets for 2025 despite a slowdown in Q1 [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates Weichai Power as a "Buy" and Sinotruk as a "Sell" based on their respective market positions and earnings outlooks [8][24]. Core Insights - The China heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry is expected to enter a multi-year upcycle driven by normalization in replacement demand, with domestic demand forecasts raised by 14-26% for 2025E-2030E, anticipating a volume doubling by 2030E compared to 2024 [1][15]. - The penetration rates for LNG HDTs and electric HDTs (eHDTs) are projected to increase to 36% and 35% respectively by 2030E, with clean/new energy HDTs expected to account for over 70% of total HDT demand by 2030E [1][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report raises the outlook for the heavy-duty truck industry in China, indicating a positive cycle inflection into 2025E, supported by a rebalanced truck fleet size against current activity levels [17]. - The expected peak in sales volume is projected at 1.2 million units by 2030E, compared to 1.55 million units at the previous cycle peak in 2020 [15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that emission policies will play a crucial role in shaping the demand trajectory, with potential upgrades to emission standards and the phase-out of high-polluting trucks expected to drive demand [2]. - The domestic HDT sales volume is anticipated to see a mean reversion, gradually moving back to normalized replacement demand levels [9]. Company-Specific Insights - Weichai Power is favored due to its improving earnings power cycle-over-cycle, while Sinotruk faces margin pressure from a slowdown in high-margin export business and the impact of truck electrification [8][20]. - Revised EPS estimates for Sinotruk for 2025E-27E are 15-25% below consensus estimates, while Weichai's estimates are 6-18% above consensus, reflecting a more favorable outlook for Weichai [20][23]. Financial Projections - The report introduces new revenue and net profit estimates for both companies, with Weichai's target price raised to HK$22.00/RMB24.00 from HK$14.61/RMB16.30, while Sinotruk's target price is adjusted to HK$18.60 from HK$17.30 [21][24]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic sales volume, with projections indicating a recovery in sales momentum driven by favorable replacement policies [25][66].