Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][27]. Core Views - The adjusted performance in Q3 continues to show strong growth, with new businesses accelerating their loss reduction. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 93.58 billion RMB (+22.4%), net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+258.0%), and adjusted net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+124.0%), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][7]. - Core local business revenue growth accelerated, with operating profit margin improving year-on-year. In Q3, core local business revenue reached 69.37 billion RMB (+20.2%), with operating profit of 14.58 billion RMB (+44.4%) and an operating profit margin of 21.0% (+3.5 percentage points) [1][9]. - New business revenue in Q3 was 24.2 billion RMB (+28.9%), with operating losses significantly narrowing to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [1][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 93.58 billion RMB, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 12.83 billion RMB, reflecting a 258.0% increase. Adjusted net profit also reached 12.83 billion RMB, up 124.0% [1][7]. - Core local business revenue grew to 69.37 billion RMB, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 20.9%, 24.3%, and 18.1% respectively [1][9]. - The operating profit margin improved to 21.0%, although it slightly decreased from Q2 due to seasonal factors [1][9]. New Business Development - New business revenue reached 24.2 billion RMB, with a significant reduction in operating losses to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [1][12]. - The company estimates that the new business, including Meituan Preferred, reduced losses to around 1.7 billion RMB in Q3, with other new businesses contributing a profit of 600-700 million RMB [1][12]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its instant retail segment, which is expected to account for over 10% of e-commerce market share by 2027, with projected GTV exceeding 200 billion RMB [1][15]. - Meituan is accelerating its overseas expansion, with Keeta entering Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in October, which may increase short-term investments but is expected to open new market opportunities in the long term [1][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 217.14 HKD for 2025, based on a 22x PE ratio [4][5][115]. Core Insights - The company is a leading high-end gold jewelry brand in China, focusing on the promotion of "Ancient Method Gold" and has established a differentiated high-end positioning that serves as a foundation for its success. The company has experienced rapid growth, with a CAGR of 58.6% in revenue and 91.2% in net profit from 2021 to 2023 [1][29]. - The market for Ancient Method Gold jewelry is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, outpacing traditional gold jewelry segments. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth through its comprehensive competitive advantages across branding, product innovation, channel marketing, and strategic development [1][53]. Company Overview - Founded in 2009, the company is recognized as the first brand in China to promote the concept of "Ancient Method Gold" and is the leading brand in the field of traditional handcrafted gold jewelry [1][23]. - The founder has extensive experience in commercializing cultural products, and the management team is stable and experienced [1][41]. Market Potential - The gold jewelry market in China is projected to reach 811 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028. The pure gold segment is expected to dominate, with a projected CAGR of 9.7% during the same period [46][47]. - The Ancient Method Gold jewelry market is anticipated to grow from 157.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 421.4 billion RMB by 2028, capturing an increasing market share [53][54]. Brand Positioning - The company fills a gap in the high-end gold jewelry market in China, recognized by high-net-worth individuals. It differentiates itself through a pricing model based on piece pricing rather than weight, which is common among traditional brands [2][62]. - The company has been recognized as one of the top ten jewelry brands favored by high-net-worth individuals in China, indicating strong brand recognition and market acceptance [62][68]. Distribution Channels - The company focuses on high-end shopping centers, achieving significant results with a coverage rate of 80% in major high-end shopping centers in China. The revenue share from five major shopping centers increased from 35.7% in 2021 to 39.1% in 2023 [2][80]. - The company plans to open 15 new stores over the next three years, indicating substantial growth potential in its distribution network [2][90]. Product Competitiveness - The company maintains a strong product development capability, with a focus on strict quality control to ensure high-end positioning. It has a unique advantage in the Ancient Method Gold market, being the only brand dedicated to this segment [3][95]. - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative products, having launched numerous new and updated products in recent years, which enhances its competitive edge [99][100]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant growth in earnings per share, projecting 6.93, 9.19, and 11.71 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Revenue is expected to grow substantially, driven by both offline and online sales channels [4][110][112].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of FY2025, with total revenue at HKD 35.734 billion, down 2.70% year-on-year, and net profit at HKD 1.761 billion, down 3.81% year-on-year. The company aims to maintain a dividend of HKD 0.5 per share for the full year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.0% [2] - Retail gas volume growth was below expectations, but segment profits showed steady growth. The company adjusted its retail gas volume growth target for the year from +5% to +2% due to lower-than-expected sales [2] - The company is experiencing a gradual price adjustment in its city gas projects, with a price difference increase of 0.29 RMB per cubic meter, and 62% of residential gas volume has achieved price alignment [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2023A, total revenue was HKD 92.423 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.31%. For FY2024A, revenue is projected to decrease to HKD 81.863 billion, a decline of 11.43%. The net profit for FY2023A was HKD 4.293 billion, down 43.96% year-on-year, while FY2024A is expected to further decline to HKD 3.185 billion, a decrease of 25.82% [1][2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2023A was HKD 0.79, projected to decrease to HKD 0.59 for FY2024A, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.89 for FY2023A and 10.64 for FY2024A [1][2] Segment Performance - The natural gas sales segment saw a profit increase of 6.28% to HKD 1.658 billion, while the connection business segment's profit rose by 13.45% to HKD 0.521 billion. The engineering design and construction segment experienced a significant profit increase of 36.25% to HKD 0.349 billion [2] - The LPG sales segment's profit plummeted by 98.96% to HKD 0.02 billion due to various market factors, while the value-added services segment's profit increased by 15.37% to HKD 1.002 billion [2] Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2025 to HKD 3.955 billion, down from the previous estimate of HKD 4.017 billion, with expected growth rates of 24%, 12%, and 10% for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [2] - The P/E ratios for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are projected to be 8.56, 7.64, and 6.96 respectively [2]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors-W (09868) [3][8] Core Views - XPeng Motors delivered 30,895 vehicles in November 2024, a 54% YoY and 29% MoM increase [3][12] - Expected sales for 2024/2025/2026 are 190,000/420,000/640,000 vehicles, with revenues of 434.0/922.9/1382.8 billion yuan, respectively [3][12] - Net profit forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 are -6.51/0.70/3.42 billion yuan, indicating a potential financial turnaround [3][12] - The MONA M03 model has been a hit, with over 10,000 units delivered monthly for three consecutive months, while the P7+ model delivered over 7,000 units in 23 days [12] - XPeng's XNGP urban autonomous driving system achieved an 85% monthly active user penetration rate in November 2024 [12] - The company is expanding globally, entering markets in Nepal and the UK, with further plans for Europe, ASEAN, and other regions [12] Financial Data and Valuation - Total shares outstanding: 1,899 million, with a market cap of 92,679.87 million HKD [8] - Net asset value per share: 20.51 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.04% [8] - Revenue growth rates for 2024/2025/2026 are projected at 41.5%/112.6%/49.8%, respectively [3][12] - EBITDA for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at -2,472.59/5,695.07/9,206.22 million yuan [13] - EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is expected to be -3.43/0.37/1.80 yuan per share [13] Industry and Market Performance - XPeng Motors operates in the automotive/passenger vehicle sector [8] - The stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week high/low of 65.50/25.50 HKD [8] - Relative performance compared to the Hang Seng Index shows XPeng outperforming in recent months [9] Strategic Developments - XPeng's "Park-to-Park" autonomous driving solution successfully completed its first test, showcasing advancements in end-to-end autonomous technology [12] - The company's AI Tianji 5.4.0 system, featuring 248 updates across AI driving, cabin, chassis, and connectivity, is now in public testing [12] - XPeng's global strategy is accelerating, with plans to expand further into Europe, ASEAN, and other key regions [12]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想汽车-W（02015） 理想汽车 11 月交付数据点评： 端到端加速推送，高阶车型占比提升 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年12月03日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 12 月 1 日，理想汽车公布 2024 年 11 月交付数据。2024 年 11 月，理想汽车交付新车 48,740 辆，同比增长 18.8%。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 1473/2054/2800 亿 元，同比增速分别为 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%，归母净利润分别为 85.3/142.4/237.2 亿元，同比 增速分别为-27.1%/67.0%/66.6%，EPS 分别为 4.02/6.71/11.18 元/股，3 年 CAGR 为 40.6%。 公司产品力提升，智能电动加速，销量兑现和盈利能力兑现。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年12月03日 理想汽车-W(02015) 理 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][27]. Core Views - The adjusted performance in Q3 continues to show strong growth, with new businesses accelerating their loss reduction. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 93.58 billion RMB (+22.4%), net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+258.0%), and adjusted net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+124.0%), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][7]. - Core local business revenue growth accelerated, with operating profit margin improving year-on-year. In Q3, core local business revenue reached 69.37 billion RMB (+20.2%), with operating profit of 14.58 billion RMB (+44.4%) and an operating profit margin of 21.0% (+3.5 percentage points) [9][14]. - New business revenue in Q3 was 24.2 billion RMB (+28.9%), with operating losses significantly narrowing to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [12][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 93.58 billion RMB, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 12.83 billion RMB, reflecting a 258.0% increase. Adjusted net profit also reached 12.83 billion RMB, up 124.0% [1][7]. - Core local business revenue grew to 69.37 billion RMB, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 20.9%, 24.3%, and 18.1% respectively [9][14]. - Operating profit for Q3 was 14.58 billion RMB, marking a 44.4% increase, with an operating profit margin of 21.0% [9][14]. New Business Development - New business revenue reached 24.2 billion RMB in Q3, up 28.9%, with operating losses narrowing significantly to 1.03 billion RMB [12][14]. - The company estimates that the Meituan Preferred segment reduced losses to around 1.7 billion RMB, while other new businesses contributed a profit of 600-700 million RMB [12][14]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on sustainable development in the dining and service consumption ecosystem, with plans to accelerate overseas expansion. Meituan's instant retail is expected to capture over 10% of the e-commerce market by 2027, with projected GTV exceeding 200 billion RMB [14][15]. - The company launched the "Prosperity Plan" in September, investing 1 billion RMB to support merchant product and business innovation [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) [1] Core Views - Simcere Pharmaceutical's new drug Xianbixin sublingual tablets have been approved for market, which is expected to synergize with the injectable form to improve stroke treatment accessibility [2] - Two other drugs, Celsera and Enlituo, have been included in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), significantly enhancing their market accessibility [3] - The company's innovative drug revenue accounted for over 70% of total revenue in H1 2024, with a noticeable increase in gross margin [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Simcere Pharmaceutical's revenue from innovative drugs reached 2 2 billion yuan, accounting for 70 7% of total revenue [4] - The company's gross margin in H1 2024 was 79 1%, an increase of 3 4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [4] - Revenue is projected to grow from 6 64 billion yuan in 2024 to 9 36 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 714 76 million yuan to 1 78 billion yuan over the same period [6][10] Product Pipeline - Xianbixin sublingual tablets showed a 64 4% functional recovery rate in clinical trials, significantly higher than the placebo group's 54 7% [2] - Celsera, a drug that protects bone marrow during chemotherapy, was successfully included in the NRDL and achieved localization in Hainan Province, potentially improving product gross margin [3] - Enlituo, a domestically developed EGFR monoclonal antibody, was approved in China in June 2024 and also included in the NRDL [3] Market Expectations - Xianbixin sublingual tablets are expected to achieve penetration rates of 0 9% and 3 9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 250 million yuan and 650 million yuan [9] - Celsera is projected to reach penetration rates of 4%, 12%, and 16% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with revenues of 220 million yuan, 420 million yuan, and 560 million yuan [9] - The company's overall revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 8% from 2024 to 2026 [10]

上海复旦（1385） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|---------------|--------------------------------|-------------| | 存量市场竞争激烈， | | FPGA | 持有 \n | 产品毛利率阶段性承压 | | | 曹凌霁 | 2024 年 12 | 月 2 日 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 328.3, representing a 29.44% upside from the current price [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 results met expectations with revenue of RMB 502.2 billion (+18.9% YoY) and net profit of RMB 25.2 billion (+18.1% YoY) [1] - Q3 gross margin improved to 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by economies of scale in NEV sales [1] - November NEV sales reached 504,000 units (+67% YoY, +1% MoM), with DM5.0 models driving strong PHEV sales of 306,000 units (+133% YoY) [1] - Full-year 2024 NEV sales expected to exceed 4.1 million units, supported by strong DM5.0 model sales and government subsidies [1] - 2025 is expected to be a breakthrough year for BEV models with new platform launches, further boosting profitability [1] Financial Performance Revenue & Profitability - Q3 revenue reached RMB 201.1 billion (+14.2% QoQ), with net profit of RMB 11.6 billion (+28% QoQ) [1] - Auto business revenue in Q3 was RMB 157.58 billion (+18% QoQ), with gross margin improving to 26% (+4 ppts QoQ) [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast at RMB 780.1/953.3/1,130.6 billion, with net profit of RMB 37.5/45.8/55.9 billion [2][4] - Gross margin expected to improve from 20.2% in 2023 to 22.6% by 2026 [4] Vehicle Sales & Profitability - YTD November 2024 sales reached 3.74 million units (+40% YoY), with premium brands (Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, Yangwang) contributing 163,000 units (+39.4% YoY) [1] - Q3 vehicle ASP increased to RMB 139,500 (+RMB 3,000 QoQ) due to higher-priced DM5.0 models [1] - Q3 vehicle profit per unit rose to RMB 9,400 (+RMB 8,000 QoQ), expected to remain stable in Q4 [1] International Expansion - November overseas sales reached 31,000 units, with YTD exports at 360,000 units (+74% YoY) [1] Valuation & Forecast - 2025 target valuation of HKD 888.1 billion based on 20x PE for auto business and 15x PE for electronics [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast at RMB 12.87/15.74/19.20, with P/E ratios of 18.3x/15.0x/12.3x [2][4] - Dividend yield expected to increase from 1% in 2023 to 2% by 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.90, which corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 14 times for FY25E [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 17.8% and a net profit growth of 23% for the first half of FY25, with total revenue reaching CNY 8.804 billion and net profit at CNY 1.130 billion [8][9]. - The main brands, Bosideng and Xuezhongfei, contributed nearly 90% of the business growth, while the women's clothing segment experienced a decline due to the consumer environment [4][9]. - The company has successfully expanded its self-operated channel for down jackets, achieving a growth of 36.7% [5][11]. - The inventory turnover days increased by 29 days to 189 days, reflecting the company's strategy to slow down the supply to distributors amid market uncertainties [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of FY25, the company achieved a gross profit of CNY 4.391 billion, with a gross margin of 49.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [8][10]. - The net profit margin improved to 12.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The down jacket business recorded revenue of CNY 6.063 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, accounting for 68.9% of total revenue [9][10]. - The OEM processing business generated CNY 2.316 billion, up 13.4%, while the women's clothing segment saw a decline of 21.5% to CNY 308 million [9]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin remained stable, with the main brands' margins improving, but the women's clothing and other brands' margins declining [10]. - Distribution expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased, contributing positively to net profit [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has invested in the Canadian luxury down jacket brand Moose Knuckles, enhancing its multi-brand matrix [15]. - New product lines, including sun protection clothing and multi-functional down jackets, have been introduced to capture off-season sales potential [14]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for FY25E to FY27E are CNY 26.398 billion, CNY 29.856 billion, and CNY 33.477 billion, with expected growth rates of 13.7%, 13.1%, and 12.1% respectively [17]. - The company aims to maintain its growth trajectory through flexible supply chain management and strong marketing capabilities [16].