港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------- ...

2024 年 11 月 30 日 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 海外进入旺季，哈利波特联名表现良好 ——名创优品（9896.HK）2024 年三季报点评 要点 公司 3Q2024 营收同增 19.3%，公司权益股东应占利润同增 4.8% 11 月 29 日,公司公布 2024 年三季报：1-3Q2024 实现营业收入 122.8 亿元， 同增 22.8%,实现公司权益股东应占利润 18.1 亿元，对应基本 EPS 为 1.54 元，同增 14.1%；实现经调整净利润 19.3 亿元，同增 13.7%。 单季度拆分来看，3Q2024 实现营业收入 45.2 亿元，同增 19.3%，实现公司 权益股东应占利润 6.4 亿元，同增 4.8%，对应基本 EPS0.52 元；实现经调 整净利润 6.9 亿元，同增 6.9%。 公司 3Q2024 综合毛利率同比上升 3.11pct，期间费用率同比上升 5.93pct 1-3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 44.13%，同比上升 3.71 个百分点。单季度拆 分来看，3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 44.89%，同比上升 3.11 个百分点。公 司毛利率同比高增主要由于 ...

港股通 证券研究报告 波司登 (3998 HK) 品牌羽绒服增长亮眼，盈利能力稳健 华泰研究 中报点评 2024 年 11 月 29 日│中国香港 服装 公司公布 FY1H25 业绩情况：公司收入同比+17.8%至 88.04 亿元，归母净 利润同比+23.0%至 11.30 亿元。中期业绩的亮眼增长主要得益于核心业务 品牌羽绒服的优异表现，FY1H25 公司品牌羽绒服/OEM/女装/多元化服装业 务营收分别同比+22.7%/+13.4%/-21.5%/+21.8%至 60.63/23.16/3.08/1.17 亿。此外，公司宣派中期股息 6.0 港仙/股。考虑到公司新品类带来新增长 动力、渠道优化及精细化运营成效佳，市场竞争力提升，维持"买入"评级。 品类持续迭代创新，线上线下均实现快速增长 在公司坚持品牌引领、产品创新和渠道优化的策略下，主品牌波司登收入同 比+19.4%至 52.80 亿元。上半财年，主品牌打造了防晒衣、单壳冲锋衣、 冲锋衣鹅绒服系列等爆款产品，实现品类延申，给淡季销售带来突破。此外， 雪中飞/冰洁期内收入分别同比+47.1%/+61.5%至 3.90 和 0.21 亿元。雪中 飞得益于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 168 70 [1] Core Views - Meituan's 3Q2024 performance exceeded expectations driven by improved profitability in core businesses and significant reduction in losses from new businesses [1] - The company's 3Q2024 revenue grew by 22 38% YoY while adjusted net profit surged by 124 00% YoY [1] - Meituan's gross margin increased by 3 99 percentage points and the expense ratio decreased by 4 73 percentage points in 3Q2024 [1] - The company's core local commerce segment saw a 20 25% YoY revenue growth with a 44 44% YoY increase in operating profit [3] - Meituan's new business segment revenue grew by 28 91% YoY although it still reported an operating loss [3] Financial Performance - Meituan's 1-3Q2024 revenue reached RMB 295 85 billion a 22 68% YoY increase with adjusted net profit of RMB 339 24 billion up 154 19% YoY [1] - In 3Q2024 Meituan's revenue was RMB 935 77 billion a 22 38% YoY increase with adjusted net profit of RMB 128 29 billion [1] - The company's gross margin for 1-3Q2024 was 38 67% up 3 12 percentage points YoY while the 3Q2024 gross margin was 39 28% [1] - Meituan's expense ratio for 1-3Q2024 was 28 49% down 3 72 percentage points YoY with the 3Q2024 expense ratio at 28 11% [1] Business Segment Analysis - Meituan's core local commerce segment contributed RMB 69 37 billion in revenue with a 21 02% operating margin in 3Q2024 [3] - Delivery services accounted for 40 05% of core local commerce revenue growing 20 89% YoY while commission income grew 24 27% YoY [3] - Meituan's instant delivery orders increased by 14 5% YoY in 3Q2024 reaching 7 078 billion orders [1] - The company's in-store hotel and travel business saw order volume grow over 50% YoY in 3Q2024 [1] Future Outlook - The report raises Meituan's 2024 2025 and 2026 adjusted net profit forecasts by 18% 7% and 4% respectively to RMB 49 07 billion RMB 54 99 billion and RMB 65 13 billion [1] - Meituan's core competitive barriers remain solid with continued improvement in profitability [1] - The company may increase investment in its overseas Keeta business although core business profitability still has room for improvement [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong and China Gas (00003) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading national city gas enterprise with a stable gas sales structure and high-quality city gas projects [1] - The Hong Kong business has stable profitability with potential for further price increases [1] - The mainland business is experiencing steady growth in gas sales volume and improving gross margins [1] - The company is diversifying into renewable energy and sustainable energy sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [1] Business Overview Hong Kong Business - The Hong Kong gas market is mature with stable user growth, covering 75% of the market [1] - Residential and commercial gas sales dominate, with residential gas sales accounting for 54% and commercial for 40% in 2023 [1] - The company has strong pricing autonomy in Hong Kong, with recent price adjustments in August 2024 [1] - Gas sales volume in Hong Kong is expected to increase by 7% by the end of 2028 compared to 2023 [1] Mainland Business - The company operates 321 city gas projects across 29 provinces in mainland China, with a user base exceeding 40 million [1] - Gas sales volume in mainland China grew at a CAGR of 8.56% from 2018 to 2023 [1] - Industrial gas sales account for 45% of total gas sales, followed by residential (22%) and commercial (14%) [1] - The gross margin for gas sales in mainland China improved to 0.47 yuan/m³ in 1H24, up by 0.05 yuan/m³ year-on-year [1] Diversified Business - The company is expanding into renewable energy, including distributed photovoltaic and energy-carbon services [1] - In 1H24, the renewable energy business contributed 1.9 billion HKD in profit, with Hong Kong and mainland businesses contributing 1.4 billion HKD and 0.5 billion HKD respectively [1] - The company is also exploring sustainable aviation fuel, green methanol, and hydrogenated vegetable oil production [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.207 billion HKD, 6.713 billion HKD, and 7.094 billion HKD for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1] - EPS is projected to be 0.33 HKD, 0.36 HKD, and 0.38 HKD for the same periods [1] - The target price is set at 7.77 HKD, representing a 31.7% upside from the current price [1] Valuation - The company's valuation is supported by its stable dividend policy, with a long-standing dividend of 0.35 HKD per share annually [1] - The DCF valuation model suggests significant upside potential as the company's cash flow grows and the city gas industry stabilizes [1]

Investment Rating and Valuation - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 31.25 per share based on a DCF valuation model [2] - The current market price is HKD 26.50, indicating a potential upside of 17.9% to the target price [3] Core Investment Thesis - The company is a global leader in the XDC CRDMO (Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization) sector, benefiting from the explosive growth of the ADC/XDC market [1] - The global ADC market surpassed $10 billion in 2023, driven by the success of HER2 ADC drugs like Enhertu, which has rewritten the standard of care for breast cancer [1] - The company's revenue, gross profit, and net profit grew by 67.6%, 133.4%, and 175.5% YoY in 1H24, respectively, showcasing its strong growth momentum [1] Industry Overview - The ADC/XDC market is experiencing rapid growth, with 7 M&A deals exceeding $1 billion in the past year, indicating strong capital market activity [1] - The complexity of ADC/XDC drug development, which combines large and small molecules, has led to a high outsourcing rate, benefiting CRDMO providers like the company [1] - The global ADC market is expected to grow from $10 billion in 2023 to $30 billion by 2028, driven by the increasing adoption of ADC drugs in cancer treatment [93] Company Strengths - The company is one of the few global players with end-to-end capabilities in XDC CRDMO, covering R&D, manufacturing, and commercialization [1] - Its "Empower, Follow, and Win the Molecule" strategy has enhanced customer stickiness, with 41 projects transitioning from early to late-stage development in 1H24 [1] - The company has a strong customer base, with the number of clients growing from 345 in 2022 to 419 in 2024, reflecting its expanding market reach [1] Capacity Expansion and Future Growth - The company is expanding its production capacity in Wuxi, Changzhou, and Shanghai, which will help reduce reliance on external suppliers and improve gross margins [1] - A new production facility in Singapore is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, catering to the growing demand for overseas orders [1] - The company plans to replace externally sourced antibodies, linkers, and payloads with in-house production, further boosting profitability [1] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 57.5%, 44.0%, and 32.6% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching RMB 3.34 billion, RMB 4.82 billion, and RMB 6.38 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit is expected to grow by 152%, 45%, and 37% in the same period, reaching RMB 715 million, RMB 1.04 billion, and RMB 1.42 billion, respectively [2] - The company's ROE is forecasted to increase from 11.63% in 2024 to 16.61% in 2026, reflecting improving profitability and operational efficiency [5] Competitive Advantages - The company has a leading position in the global XDC CRDMO market, ranking second globally and first in China by revenue in 2022 [147] - Its proprietary WuXiDAR4 technology platform enables precise control over drug-to-antibody ratios (DAR), reducing manufacturing costs and improving product homogeneity [172] - The company has a robust pipeline with 564 ADC projects and 141 XDC projects as of 1H24, providing a strong foundation for future growth [173]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a 6-month target price [1] Core Views - Tianli achieved FY24 revenue of RMB 3.3 billion, up 44% YoY, with adjusted net profit of RMB 580 million, up 56% YoY [1] - The company's comprehensive education service revenue reached RMB 1.74 billion, up 43% YoY, while product sales grew 66% to RMB 920 million [1] - Tianli's school network covers 18 provinces and cities, serving 130,000 students across 58 schools as of November 2024 [1] Financial Performance - FY24 comprehensive education service revenue: RMB 1.74 billion (+43% YoY) [1] - Product sales: RMB 920 million (+66% YoY) [1] - Comprehensive logistics services: RMB 600 million (+23% YoY) [1] - Management and franchise fees: RMB 60 million (+53% YoY) [1] - Cash and equivalents: RMB 1.358 billion [1] - Operating cash inflow: RMB 827 million [1] - Capital expenditure: RMB 410 million (-32% YoY) [1] Educational Achievements - 272 students admitted to global top 50 universities in 2024, up 114% from 2023 [1] - 9 students admitted to QS top 10 universities, including Cambridge and Imperial College London [1] - Average first-tier university admission rate in mature Sichuan campuses: 55% [1] - Average undergraduate admission rate: 90%, significantly exceeding Sichuan's average [1] Operational Developments - Tianli successfully separated 7 high schools with independent operating licenses from integrated schools by FY24 [1] - High school student enrollment reached 53,900 in autumn 2024, up 46.8% from 36,708 in 2023 [1] - Lixing Study Tour company served over 110,000 students in 2024, including 15,000 from external schools [2] Technology Integration - AI Smart Classroom pilot launched in over 10 schools in 2024 [3] - 36 students in Yibin Tianli School's college entrance exam training camp improved scores by an average of 36 points [3] - Collaboration with Beijing No. 4 High School Hohhot Branch established for AI-assisted exam preparation [3] Future Outlook - FY25-27 revenue forecasts: RMB 4.6 billion, RMB 6.4 billion, RMB 8.8 billion [4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts: RMB 800 million, RMB 1.1 billion, RMB 1.4 billion [4] - EPS forecasts: RMB 0.37, RMB 0.5, RMB 0.66 [4] - PE ratios: 11X, 8X, 6X [4]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | 中教控股（ 00839 ） | 投资评级 | 证券研究报告 2024 年 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Baidu Group-SW (09888) with a target price of HKD 90 per share, implying a 12% upside potential [10] Core Views - Baidu's AI-driven intelligent cloud business is experiencing high growth, with AI applications and autonomous driving accelerating their market penetration [3] - The domestic internet cloud business has passed its low point, and AI is driving revenue growth in both cloud and advertising sectors [3] - Baidu's AI capabilities, particularly in natural language processing (NLP), are leading in the Chinese market, with daily calls to the Wenxin large model exceeding 1.5 billion, a 30x increase from a year ago [4] - Autonomous driving services, such as "Luobo Kuaipao," are expanding, with 100% unmanned services now available in Wuhan and other cities [5] - Despite macroeconomic pressures, Baidu's core online marketing revenue remains stable, supported by a robust user base, with Baidu APP's MAU reaching 704 million in 3Q24 [5] Financial Projections - Baidu Group's revenue is expected to be RMB 133.9 billion, RMB 140.6 billion, and RMB 148.9 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of -1%, 5%, and 6% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 26.4 billion, RMB 28.1 billion, and RMB 31.5 billion for the same periods, with growth rates of -8%, 6%, and 12% [6] - The intelligent cloud business is expected to grow rapidly, with revenues of RMB 21.9 billion, RMB 25.2 billion, and RMB 29.0 billion for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 17%, 15%, and 15% [11] AI and Cloud Business - Baidu's AI framework is robust, with significant advancements in NLP and generative AI, driving the intelligent cloud business [4] - The intelligent cloud business accounted for 19% of Baidu's core revenue in 3Q24, up from 4% in 2018, with AI-related revenue contributing 11% in 3Q24 [4][5] - Baidu's AI applications are accelerating, with the 2024 Baidu World Conference focusing on AI application deployment, including the release of iRAG technology, a no-code tool "Miaoda," and AI-powered glasses [4] Autonomous Driving - Baidu's autonomous driving business, including "Luobo Kuaipao" and Apollo ADFM, is making significant progress, with full unmanned services now operational in multiple cities [5] - The company has partnered with Geely to produce smart electric vehicles, with the JiYue 001 and JiYue 007 models showing strong sales growth [5] Online Marketing - Baidu's core online marketing revenue is under pressure due to macroeconomic factors and increased competition in the online advertising space, with a projected revenue decline of 2% in 2024 [5][11] - Despite these challenges, Baidu's user base remains strong, with Baidu APP's MAU reaching 704 million in 3Q24, up 6% year-on-year [5] Industry Context - The domestic public cloud market has slowed since 2021, but AI is expected to be a key driver for growth in the cloud business for internet companies [34] - Baidu's AI capabilities, including its large models and generative AI, are positioning it as a leader in the AI cloud era, with significant advantages in data, algorithms, and computing power [34]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) for Meituan-W (03690 HK) [3] Core Views - Meituan-W reported better-than-expected Q3 2024 results with revenue of RMB 93 6 billion (+22 4% YoY) and Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 12 8 billion (+124% YoY) [4] - Local core commerce revenue grew 20 2% YoY to RMB 69 4 billion with an operating profit margin of 21% (+3 5pct YoY) [4] - New business revenue increased 28 9% YoY to RMB 24 2 billion with a narrowed operating loss of RMB 1 billion (-79 9% YoY) [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 3 376/3 941/4 461 billion in 2024/2025/2026 with Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 43 8/57 0/73 3 billion respectively [4] Business Segment Analysis Food Delivery and Instant Retail - Food delivery and instant retail transaction volume reached 7 077 billion in Q3 2024 with daily orders of 76 93 million (+14 5% YoY) [4] - Delivery revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB 27 8 billion driven by reduced subsidies and increased merchant adoption of delivery services [4] - Flash purchase business saw double-digit growth in user numbers and transaction frequency with faster growth in non-food categories [4] In-Store Hotel and Travel - In-store hotel and travel order volume increased over 50% YoY in Q3 2024 with record high annual transacting users and active merchants [4] - The business achieved rapid growth in lower-tier markets with increased user frequency and new user acquisition [4] - Hotel business maintained stable room night growth with the Shen Membership program becoming a new growth driver [4] New Businesses - New businesses excluding Meituan Select achieved overall profitability in Q3 2024 [4] - Meituan Select continued to narrow losses despite increased cold chain investments [4] - Overseas expansion began with the launch of Keeta in Riyadh in October 2024 [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15 1% from 2024 to 2026 reaching RMB 4 461 billion in 2026 [8] - Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to improve from 13 0% in 2024 to 16 4% in 2026 [8] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 16 61% in 2024 to 20 45% in 2026 [8] - P E ratio is expected to decline from 21 64x in 2024 to 12 94x in 2026 reflecting earnings growth [4]