Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Meitu, with a target price of HKD 6.96 based on a projected PE of 37X for 2025 [5][7]. Core Insights - Meitu focuses on enhancing its image and design products through AI technology, which drives membership subscription conversion and improves user experience, retention, and willingness to pay [1][2]. - The company is expanding its B-end applications, with a notable increase in productivity product users and subscription penetration rates, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][3]. - Meitu's global user base is growing, with significant contributions from overseas markets, and its advertising business is also on the rise due to increased user engagement [3][7]. Summary by Sections Strategic Focus on Image and Design Products - Meitu has refocused on its core image and design applications, leveraging AI to enhance product capabilities and user engagement, leading to a significant increase in active users and subscription rates [1][16]. - The flagship product, Meitu Xiuxiu, remains a leader in the market, with a strong daily active user (DAU) base and a comprehensive suite of features [1][58]. Expansion into Productivity Scenarios - The number of productivity product users has increased, with a 8.7% quarter-on-quarter growth in the first half of 2024, reaching 19.2 million users, which now accounts for 7.5% of total users [2][61]. - The Meitu Design Studio has seen a revenue growth of over 152%, indicating strong monetization potential in the B-end market [2][3]. Global User Growth and Revenue Streams - Domestic monthly active users (MAU) are stabilizing at over 170 million, while overseas users exceed 30%, contributing nearly 50% of revenue from image and design products [3][7]. - The advertising business has experienced a 129% revenue growth in regions outside mainland China, supported by an increase in overall MAU and the introduction of new products [3][7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Meitu's net profit to grow significantly from 378.29 million in 2023 to 925.38 million by 2026, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.09 to 0.20 [8][7]. - Revenue is expected to rise from 2.70 billion in 2023 to 4.86 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.3% [8][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite pressures, the company has potential for growth through its focus on collagen products, new product launches, and advantages in medical channels [6][41]. - The collagen protein market is still in its growth phase, providing significant opportunities for the company as a market leader [9][30]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative increase compared to the Hang Seng Index, with absolute growth rates of 5.37% over one month and 7.46% over two months [4]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.379 billion HKD in 2024 to 8.790 billion HKD in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.88%, 26.65%, and 23.17% respectively [5][41]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2.060 billion HKD in 2024 to 3.213 billion HKD in 2026, with corresponding growth rates [5][41]. Investment Highlights - The report identifies three key areas of expectation: 1. **Collagen Product Ceiling**: Concerns exist regarding the sales ceiling of the collagen stick product, but the collagen market is still growing, indicating potential for expansion [6][9]. 2. **New Product Pipeline**: The company is expanding its product lineup, with new launches expected to contribute to revenue growth [12][18]. 3. **Medical Aesthetics Market**: The company is well-positioned in the medical aesthetics sector, with recent approvals for new products that could capture significant market share [30][39]. Product Performance - The collagen stick product has achieved significant sales, with projected sales of nearly 2.4 billion HKD in 2024, indicating strong market demand [6][7]. - New products, such as the focus cream, have exceeded expectations in early sales, contributing positively to the overall revenue [18][19]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that while competition in the collagen market is increasing, the company’s established position and product offerings provide a competitive edge [23][30]. - The medical aesthetics market is characterized by high growth potential, with the company’s recent product approvals enhancing its market position [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Kerry Properties [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of the "Jinling Huating" project in Shanghai, which is anticipated to contribute significant cash flow starting in 2025 [10]. - The company's investment properties and hotels are projected to increase in gross floor area (GFA) by approximately 59% by the end of 2030 compared to H1 2024, enhancing revenue growth potential [10]. - The company emphasizes stable shareholder returns, maintaining a consistent dividend per share (DPS) of HK$1.35 from 2017 to 2023, with a stable interim DPS of HK$0.40 in H1 2024 [10]. - The gearing ratio is expected to decline in 2025 as cash flow from property sales improves, alleviating financial pressure [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kerry Properties was established in 1978 and primarily engages in real estate development and property leasing, with significant investments in mainland China since the late 1990s [13][14]. Development Business - The company's sales are primarily driven by high-end residential projects, with a notable recovery in contract sales in Hong Kong, achieving HK$7 billion in H1 2024, a 271% increase year-on-year [22][27]. - The company has a robust project pipeline in Hong Kong, with several high-end projects expected to support sales in the coming years [32][34]. Investment Properties - The company reported a consolidated property rental income of HK$2.6 billion in H1 2024, with a slight year-on-year decline of 2.8% [48]. - The investment properties are strategically located in core cities, with a focus on office and retail spaces, providing stable cash flow [53][57]. Financial Analysis - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported total revenue of HK$13.09 billion, a decrease of 10.3% year-on-year, with a projected recovery in revenue for 2024 [4][9]. - The core net profit for 2024 is estimated at HK$2.99 billion, reflecting an 18.7% increase compared to 2023 [4][9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a stable DPS of HK$1.35 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.4, 6.8, and 5.7, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Mengniu Dairy's impairment provisions have cleared historical burdens, setting a solid foundation for profit growth in 2025. The company anticipates a gradual improvement in the dairy industry supply-demand balance, which is expected to enhance the operational conditions of upstream farms [7][8] - Despite a challenging 2024, the company's main operations show resilience, with expected improvements in gross and operating profit margins due to declining raw milk prices and various efficiency enhancement measures [7] - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns, indicating that the anticipated impairments are non-cash accounting items. The company aims to maximize shareholder returns through dividend policies that exclude these impairments [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 886.82 billion, 936.85 billion, and 96.714 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -10.08%, +5.64%, and +3.23% [7] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 110.14 million, 4.83 billion, and 5.42 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -97.71%, +4289%, and +12% respectively [7] - The report projects a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.03 RMB in 2024 to 1.38 RMB in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 575.24, 13.11, and 11.68 [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Mengniu Dairy's impairment provisions have cleared historical burdens, setting a solid foundation for profit growth in 2025. The company is expected to benefit from improved operating conditions as the supply-demand imbalance in the raw milk market gradually eases [7] - The main business shows strong resilience, with operating profit margins expected to improve due to declining raw milk prices and various efficiency enhancement measures [7] - The company emphasizes stable cash flow and shareholder returns, planning to declare dividends while excluding the impact of impairment provisions [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 886.82 billion, 936.85 billion, and 96.714 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -10.08%, +5.64%, and +3.23% [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company has been revised to 110.14 million, 4.83 billion, and 5.42 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -97.71%, +4288.93%, and +12% [7] - The report indicates a significant increase in the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 to 575.24, with subsequent years at 13.11 and 11.68 [7] Market Data - The closing price of Mengniu Dairy is reported at HKD 17.26, with a market capitalization of approximately 67.62 billion HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.52 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.21% [6] Cash Flow and Profitability - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 3.12 billion RMB, with a stable cash flow outlook despite the anticipated impairments [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 37.99% in 2024, with net profit margin projected at 0.12% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics, with a target price based on the last closing price of HKD 6.58 [1][4]. Core Insights - TCL Electronics is expected to exceed performance expectations for 2024, with an adjusted net profit forecast of approximately HKD 1.3 billion to HKD 1.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62% to 112% [4]. - The company anticipates a record high in global TV shipments, reaching 29 million units in 2024, a 14.8% increase from the previous year [4]. - The integration of DeepSeek is expected to enhance multiple business lines, including smart home and mobile communications, leading to improved operational efficiency and long-term growth [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, TCL Electronics expects revenue of HKD 102.7 billion, a growth rate of 30% compared to 2023 [9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be HKD 1.57 billion, with a net profit growth rate of 111% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 0.62, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.57 [9]. Business Segments - The core TV business is expected to drive growth, with a significant increase in high-margin products, including a 69.5% increase in quantum dot TVs and a 194.5% increase in Mini LED TVs [4]. - The innovative business segments, including solar energy and full-category marketing, are also projected to contribute positively to the company's performance [4]. Market Outlook - The global TV market is anticipated to see strong demand for large-screen and high-end products, with a shift in panel production capacity towards Chinese brands, potentially increasing market concentration [6]. - The report highlights the rapid growth in sectors such as solar energy, AR/XR, and AI, which are expected to benefit TCL Electronics [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 36.00, representing a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 31.15 [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to improve operational efficiency driven by new production capacity, leading to both volume and price increases. The overall wafer average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise by 8% year-on-year in 2025, despite anticipated price competition in mature processes [6][4]. - The company plans to optimize its order structure to address differentiated demand, focusing on securing foundry needs from overseas manufacturers and expanding into AI-related products [6]. - Financial forecasts indicate a recovery in revenue and net profit, with projected revenues of USD 2.45 billion in 2025 and USD 3.44 billion in 2027, alongside net profits of USD 113.72 million and USD 382.16 million for the same years, respectively [6][14]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of USD 2.29 billion, with a gross margin of 21.3% and a net profit of USD 280.03 million. The revenue is expected to decline by 7.7% in 2024 but rebound by 22.5% in 2025 [3][14]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 20.5% by 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and cost management [3][14]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at HKD 53.54 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio estimated at 21.1 for 2023, increasing to 117.5 in 2024 before stabilizing [4][3]. Operational Performance - The company’s production capacity utilization remains high, with a 12-inch capacity utilization rate of 100.9% and an 8-inch capacity utilization rate of 105.8% as of Q4 2024 [6]. - The company is accelerating the ramp-up of its new 12-inch production capacity in Wuxi, expected to reach a monthly capacity of 40,000 wafers by mid-2025 and 83,000 wafers by mid-2026 [6]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include Huahong Group (20.25%), Huaxin Investment (13.22%), and Shanghai United Investment (11.01%) [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 486.4, indicating a potential upside of 32.3% from the current price of HKD 365.6 [4][6]. Core Insights - The launch of the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" advanced driving system aims to democratize intelligent driving technology, making it accessible to a broader consumer base [2]. - The company is projected to achieve record sales of 4.25 million new energy passenger vehicles in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [3]. - The company’s market share in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to stabilize at 35% in 2025, despite increased competition from hybrid models [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 602.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 1,018.3 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.2% [5][7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 30.0 billion in 2023 to RMB 53.7 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin projected to remain around 5.3% [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from HKD 10.3 in 2023 to HKD 18.4 in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 36.00, representing a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 31.15 [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to improve operational efficiency driven by new capacity, leading to both volume and price increases. The overall wafer average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise by 8% year-on-year in 2025, despite anticipated price competition in the mature process segment [6][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in financial performance, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 set at USD 2.45 billion, USD 2.96 billion, and USD 3.44 billion respectively, alongside net profits of USD 113.72 million, USD 279.54 million, and USD 382.16 million [6][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of USD 2.29 billion, with a gross margin of 21.3% and a net profit of USD 280.03 million. The revenue is expected to decline by 7.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery with a projected growth of 22.5% in 2025 [3][15]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 20.5% by 2027, reflecting operational improvements and cost management [3][15]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from USD 0.03 in 2024 to USD 0.22 in 2027, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [3][15]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on optimizing its order structure to address differentiated demand across various segments, including embedded storage and power management [6]. - The production capacity utilization remains high, with a 12-inch capacity utilization rate of 100.9% and an 8-inch capacity utilization rate of 105.8% as of Q4 2024 [6]. - The company plans to accelerate the ramp-up of its new 12-inch capacity in Wuxi, aiming for a monthly capacity of 40,000 wafers by mid-2025 [6]. Market Position - The company is strategically positioned to capture demand from overseas manufacturers, including STMicroelectronics and Infineon, as they expand their operations in China [6]. - The report highlights the potential asset quality improvement and capacity increase following the planned injection of Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics into the company [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 486.4, indicating a potential upside of 32.3% from the current price of HKD 365.6 [4][6]. Core Insights - The launch of the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" advanced driving system aims to democratize intelligent driving technology, making it accessible to a broader consumer base [2]. - The company is projected to achieve record sales of 4.25 million new energy passenger vehicles in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [3]. - The company’s market share in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to stabilize at 35% in 2025, despite increased competition from hybrid models [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 602.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 1,216.6 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34.2% [5][7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 30.0 billion in 2023 to RMB 65.4 billion in 2026, with a net profit margin projected to improve gradually [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from HKD 10.3 in 2023 to HKD 22.5 in 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [5][7]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s high-end brands, including Tengshi and Fangchengbao, are expected to contribute significantly to overall sales, with a projected total of 188,000 units sold in 2024 [3]. - The overall new energy vehicle market in China is expected to reach 10.9 million units in 2024, with the company maintaining a leading position despite a slight decline in market share [3]. Strategic Developments - The introduction of the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" system across various models is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and drive industry-wide adoption of intelligent driving technologies [4]. - The company plans to launch a new generation of pure electric platforms and related technologies in 2025, which is anticipated to further boost profitability and market presence [4].