Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618 HK) [4] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2604 billion RMB (YoY +5%, QoQ -11%), slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.2 billion RMB (YoY +24%, QoQ -9%), significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [4][15] - The company has repurchased $3.6 billion worth of shares as of September 30, 2024, with a new share repurchase plan allowing up to $5 billion in buybacks by August 2027 [4] Business Performance JD Retail - JD Retail revenue grew 6% YoY to 2250 billion RMB in Q3 2024, driven by increased active users and order volume [6] - The "Spring Dawn Plan" upgrade introduced 15 new initiatives, including traffic support and advertising subsidies, leading to over 20% YoY growth in third-party merchant transaction users and over 30% YoY growth in order volume [6] - Electronics category revenue grew 3% YoY, benefiting from national subsidy policies for trade-in programs [6] - Daily necessities category revenue grew 8% YoY, with supermarket and apparel categories achieving double-digit growth [6] JD Logistics - JD Logistics revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +7%, QoQ flat) [9] - Operating profit margin improved by 4.0 percentage points YoY to 4.7% [9] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue grew 5.4% YoY to 20.7 billion RMB [9] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, driven by growth in express delivery and freight services [9] Financial Metrics - Gross profit was 45 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +16%, QoQ -2%), with a gross margin of 17.3% [17] - Operating profit was 12 billion RMB (YoY +29%, QoQ +15%), with an operating margin of 4.6% [17] - Net profit was 12.8 billion RMB (YoY +56%, QoQ -6%), with a net profit margin of 4.9% [17] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are raised to 11,399/12,075/12,737 billion RMB [24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at 37.7/43.1/47.5 billion RMB [24] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 45/51.1/55.4 billion RMB, with Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 9/8/7X [24] - Target price is set at 164 RMB/177 HKD based on SOTP valuation, implying a target market cap of 523.1 billion RMB for 2025 [24][25] Market Performance - JD Group's stock price has shown significant outperformance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with 12-month returns of 28.7% compared to the index's 7.5% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][44]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a resurgence in sales with the launch of the MONA M03 and P7+ models, which are expected to strengthen its brand recognition in the intelligent driving sector [7][28]. - The introduction of the range-extended vehicle technology is anticipated to open new market opportunities, aligning with the trend towards larger battery capacities and smaller fuel tanks [9][43]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 41.4 billion, 78.1 billion, and 102.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profit projections of -6.1 billion, -1.7 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan [8][44]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance and Product Launches - The company faced low sales in the first half of 2024, but the launch of the MONA M03 in August significantly improved sales, with over 30,000 orders within 48 hours of its release [20][21]. - The P7+ model, launched in November 2024, has also received strong initial orders, indicating its potential as a best-seller [28]. Intelligent Driving Technology - The P7+ features the new "AI Eagle Eye Vision" intelligent driving system, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the intelligent driving market [24][28]. - The company has developed its own AI chip, the Turing chip, which is designed to meet the increasing computational demands of intelligent driving applications [31][33]. Financial Projections - The report projects a revenue increase of 14.2% in 2023, followed by significant growth rates of 34.8%, 89.0%, and 31.6% in the subsequent years [6][49]. - The company’s PS valuation is slightly above its peers, but its leadership in intelligent driving justifies the "Buy" rating [44][45]. Range-Extended Vehicle Technology - The company plans to launch a new range-extended vehicle with a pure electric range exceeding 400 kilometers and a total range of over 1400 kilometers, which is expected to attract a broader customer base [9][43]. - The new technology aims to address the needs of markets with underdeveloped charging infrastructure, particularly overseas [37].

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992 HK) with a focus on the potential for FY2026 profit growth driven by external factors such as tariff policies and capacity relocation plans [2][6] - FY2025Q2 performance met expectations with revenue of $17 85 billion up 24% YoY driven by growth in PC smartphone and tablet segments [7] - AI PC penetration is boosting ASP in the PC business with Lenovo's PC shipments growing 3 0% YoY in 2024Q3 outperforming the market which declined 2 4% [7] - ISG business revenue grew 65% YoY with AI servers contributing to a moderate sequential increase while SSG business grew 13% YoY [7] - FY2025Q2 net profit was $359 million with IDG business operating margin stable at 7 33% and ISG business narrowing its operating loss margin to -1 08% [7] - FY2025 full year profit is expected to be supported by promotional seasons and improved customer acquisition in ISG business [8] - FY2025Q3-Q4 AI server business is anticipated to see faster order-to-revenue conversion due to leadership changes and market dynamics [8] Financial Projections - FY2025 revenue is projected at $67 749 million up 19 1% YoY with net profit expected to be $1 271 million up 25 8% YoY [8] - FY2026 revenue is forecasted at $73 642 million up 8 7% YoY with net profit of $1 462 million up 15 0% YoY [8] - FY2027 revenue is estimated at $80 285 million up 9 0% YoY with net profit of $1 723 million up 17 9% YoY [8] - FY2025-2027 diluted EPS is projected at $0 085 $0 098 and $0 116 respectively translating to HK$0 66 HK$0 76 and HK$0 90 [6] - Current stock price of HK$9 17 implies FY2025-2027 PE multiples of 13 8x 12 0x and 10 2x [6] Business Performance - PC business saw volume and price increases with AI PC penetration driving ASP growth [7] - ISG business experienced significant revenue growth but remains in a loss-making phase with a slight improvement in operating loss margin [7] - SSG business showed steady growth with a 13% YoY increase in revenue [7] - Americas accounted for 33% of FY2025Q2 revenue with potential tariff risks under the Trump administration prompting accelerated global factory and supply chain adjustments [8]

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 29 00 [2] Core Views - The company's 24Q3 performance showed significant improvement with a 5 3% QoQ revenue increase to $1 7 billion and a gross margin of 12 2% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 222 6% YoY and 571 6% QoQ to $0 45 billion [2] - Annualized ROE improved by 1 6ppts YoY and 2 4ppts QoQ to 2 8% [2] - The company's capacity utilization rate reached 105 3% with 12-inch capacity utilization at 98 5% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor industry with a current P/B ratio of 0 7x [2] Financial Performance - 24Q3 revenue guidance is $5 3-5 4 billion with a gross margin of 11%-13% [2] - Revenue breakdown by end market: consumer electronics (10 9%), industrial & automotive (11 9%), communications (10 9%), and computers (-44 7%) [2] - Revenue breakdown by technology platform: embedded memory (3 3%), standalone memory (23 9%), discrete devices (7 1%), analog & power management (21 5%), and logic & RF (21 4%) [2] - Wafer ASP in 24Q3 increased by 1 2ppts QoQ to $415 per wafer [2] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be $19 9 billion, $25 6 billion, and $28 5 billion respectively [2] Operational Highlights - Wafer shipments in 24Q3 increased by 8 5% QoQ to 1 2 million 8-inch equivalent wafers [2] - The Wuxi Phase II 12-inch fab is progressing smoothly with a planned capacity of 20K wafers per month by the end of 2025 [2] - The total planned capacity for the Wuxi Phase II project is 80K wafers per month [2] Industry Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in demand for power management and CIS products [2] - The company's mature process capacity is less affected by US semiconductor sanctions [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor industry [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.80, indicating a potential upside of 13.0% from the current closing price of HKD 5.13 [1][4][9]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant pressure in its business segments during Q3 2024, with revenues and net profits declining by 17.8% and 50.4% respectively. The decline was attributed to various factors, including a 20% drop in the pharmaceutical segment, particularly a 31% decrease in the oncology sector due to competitive pricing pressures and inventory adjustments [1][2]. - The management anticipates a recovery in 2025, driven by the launch of six new products by the end of 2024, which is expected to restore positive growth in operating income outside of business development (BD) [1][2]. - The company has entered a significant business development phase, with a global rights deal for an Lp(a) inhibitor with AstraZeneca potentially worth up to USD 1.65 billion, including a USD 100 million upfront payment expected to be recognized in Q4 2024 [2][5]. Financial Model Updates - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward by 17-26%, and net profit forecasts have been reduced by 28-37% due to the disappointing Q3 performance [2][3]. - The updated financial projections indicate a revenue of RMB 29,632 million for 2024, down from the previous estimate of RMB 35,518 million, with a corresponding net profit of RMB 4,966 million, reflecting a significant decrease from the prior forecast [3][11]. Business Development Potential - The company is expected to generate at least two external licensing deals annually, with the potential for each deal to exceed the scale of the AstraZeneca transaction. This includes ongoing development in various innovative platforms such as ADC, siRNA, and mRNA vaccines [2][5]. - The management is actively exploring collaborations in early product development with AI drug discovery and gene therapy technologies, indicating a strategic focus on innovation and partnerships [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 3.27 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from a loss to profit in Q3 2024, with a significant recovery in gaming revenue, achieving a 74.9% increase in gross gaming revenue compared to the previous quarter, and a 12.5% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [2][3]. - Non-gaming revenue also showed a positive trend, with a 10.4% increase to HKD 1.2 billion, contributing to the overall recovery of the company [2][3]. - The report highlights the performance of key properties, with "New Lisboa" and other self-operated venues showing a recovery to 69.4% and 84.8% of their 2019 levels, respectively [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net income of HKD 282.3 million for 2024, a significant turnaround from a loss of HKD 2,009.8 million in 2023 [5]. - EBITDA is projected to grow by 32.4% to HKD 3,826.2 million in 2024, with further growth expected in subsequent years [5]. - The company's total revenue is forecasted to reach HKD 28,633.7 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 32.4% compared to 2023 [5]. Market Position - The company has improved its market share, with a reported increase of 40.8% in overall market share in Q3 2024 [2][3]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the Macau gaming market, supported by strategic initiatives to enhance customer engagement and expand service offerings [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618) and raises the target price to 176 HKD from 166 HKD based on the SOTP valuation method [3][19] Core Views - JD Group's revenue growth has rebounded under the trade-in policy, with profits exceeding expectations [2][3] - JD Retail's revenue increased by 6.1% YoY in FY24Q3, driven by growth in active users and shopping frequency, particularly benefiting from the trade-in policy [3] - JD Logistics achieved a significant increase in operating profit margin to 4.7%, with operating profit reaching 2.09 billion RMB, far exceeding market expectations [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 17.3%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY, attributed to higher-margin general merchandise and reduced logistics costs [3] Financial Performance - JD Group's FY24Q3 revenue grew 5.1% YoY to 260.4 billion RMB, with merchandise and service revenues increasing by 5% and 6% respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profit surged 29.3% YoY to 13.2 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 11.4 billion RMB [3] - JD Logistics' revenue rose 6.6% YoY to 44.4 billion RMB, with cost control measures leading to only a 2.2% YoY increase in costs [3] Business Segment Analysis - JD Retail's revenue reached 225 billion RMB in FY24Q3, with electronics and home appliance sales growing 3% YoY and daily necessities sales increasing 8% YoY [3] - JD Logistics' operating profit margin improved significantly, driven by effective cost management and low single-digit growth in labor costs [3] Valuation and Outlook - JD Group's valuation is supported by its strong supply chain capabilities, which provide efficiency advantages in inventory turnover, gross margin, and fulfillment costs [19] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer spending, with platform ecosystem improvements and content ecosystem development driving future growth [21] - Revenue forecasts for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are adjusted to 1,128.2 billion RMB, 1,183.2 billion RMB, and 1,243.0 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 44.8 billion RMB, 48.0 billion RMB, and 51.7 billion RMB [3][21]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Maoyan Entertainment (01896 HK) with a target price of 11 2 HKD [1][7] Core Views - Maoyan Entertainment is a leading online entertainment ticketing and content service provider in China with major shareholders including Tencent Meituan and Light Chaser Animation [1] - The company's main businesses are online entertainment ticketing (48% of 24H1 revenue) entertainment content services (47%) and advertising other services (5%) [1] - The film industry is expected to recover in 2025 with a new product cycle and Maoyan's film-related business is well-positioned to benefit from this recovery [1][6] - The company's live entertainment ticketing business is a new growth driver with 24H1 concert music festival GMV growing over 3x YoY [1][3] Business Analysis Online Entertainment Ticketing - The online movie ticketing market has stabilized into a "one super one strong" duopoly with Maoyan and Tao Piao Piao dominating [1][104] - Maoyan benefits from strong traffic advantages through its partnerships with Tencent and Meituan [1][115] - The movie ticketing business provides a stable cash flow base while live entertainment ticketing is a high-growth emerging segment [1][3] Entertainment Content Services - Maoyan has proven its film distribution capabilities ranking among the top 3 domestic distributors since 2021 [1][136] - The company's big data from its ticketing platform helps improve film selection and distribution success rates [1][136] - Future growth opportunities lie in deeper participation in film production and distribution including increasing investment shares and attempting more lead production projects [1][3] Industry Outlook - The Chinese film market is expected to recover in 2025 after a challenging 2024 with box office down 22% YoY to 38 4 billion RMB [1][72] - Both domestic and imported films are expected to enter a new release cycle in 2025 with major titles like "Nezha 2" and "Avatar 3" [1][80] - Long-term growth potential remains as China's per capita movie viewing frequency (1 23 times in 2019) is still far below the US level (3 8 times) [1][89] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 4 04 billion RMB in 2024 to 5 79 billion RMB in 2026 [1][7] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 663 million RMB in 2024 to 1 07 billion RMB in 2026 [1][7] - The target valuation of 12 9 billion HKD is based on 13x 2025 PE [1][7]

相对恒生指数表现 2024/11/15 2024 年 11 月 18 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 罗婉琦 S0350524050002 luowq@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 淘天商业化策略稳步推进，核心业务稳健增长 ——阿里巴巴-W（9988.HK）FY2025Q2 财报 点评 事件: 最近一年走势 2024 年 11 月 15 日公司公告 FY2025Q2 财报（对应自然年 2024Q3）， 实现营业收入 2,365 亿元（YoY+5%，QoQ-3%）；经营利润 352 亿元 （YoY+5%，QoQ-2%），经调整 EBITDA 473 亿元（YoY-4%，QoQ-7%）， 净利润 435 亿元（YoY+63%，QoQ+81%），归母净利润 439 亿元 （YoY+58%，QoQ+81%），Non-GAAP 净利润 365 亿元（YoY-9%， QoQ-10%）。 我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$30.40, representing a potential upside of 31% from the current price of HK$23.20 [1][8][9] Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery path, with a 10% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q3 2024, although the price increase was less than expected [1][4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 exceeded expectations at 12.2%, compared to the forecast of 11.5% [1][4] - The management indicated strong growth in consumer electronics, but weakness persists in industrial and automotive sectors [1][4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted downwards to a 23% year-on-year growth, a reduction of 5% from previous estimates [1][5] Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of US$45 million in Q3 2024, which was 9% higher than the forecast [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is US$0.08, with subsequent years expected to rise to US$0.12 in 2025 and US$0.16 in 2026 [1][5] - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at US$2,003 million, with a projected increase to US$2,461 million in 2025 and US$2,953 million in 2026 [5][14] Valuation - The valuation approach is based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio, with a target P/B of 1.0 times and an estimated book value per share of US$3.87 for 2025 [8][9] - The report highlights that the company’s long-term return on equity (ROE) prospects remain challenging due to high capital expenditures and competitive pressures in traditional processes [8][9] Market Comparison - The company’s current market capitalization is approximately US$5.13 billion, with a P/E ratio of 38.7 for the next fiscal year [9] - Compared to peers, the company has a lower P/B ratio of 0.8, indicating potential undervaluation relative to its competitors [9]