同程旅行(00780):25年开局良好,核心OTA利润率持续提升
EBSCN· 2025-05-26 03:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.377 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and an adjusted net profit of 788 million yuan, up 41.1% year-on-year [1]. - The core OTA revenue reached 3.792 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a robust year-on-year growth of 18.4% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 68.8%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by revenue growth and scale effects [3]. - The company announced an agreement to acquire 100% of the shares of Wanda Hotel Management (Hong Kong) on April 17, 2025, which is expected to enhance its high-end hotel management capabilities [3]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - The company's revenue from accommodation bookings in Q1 2025 was 1.19 billion yuan, up 23.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in take rate and cross-selling rates [2]. - Traffic ticket revenue reached 2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, supported by the expansion of international ticket sales [2]. - Other business revenue was 603 million yuan, reflecting a 20.0% year-on-year growth, driven by hotel management and advertising services [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 3.393 billion yuan, 4.060 billion yuan, and 4.647 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 10 for the years 2025 to 2027 [4].
同程旅行:1Q盈利超预期;预计全年盈利增长稳健。-20250526
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-05-26 03:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$24.00, representing a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HK$20.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of RMB 4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's expectations by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 788 million, up 41% year-on-year, also surpassing forecasts [1][2]. - The core OTA business revenue was RMB 3.8 billion, accounting for 86.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%, driven by strong performance in transportation ticketing and other services [2]. - The report anticipates stable growth in profits for the full year, with a projected 25% increase in operating profit and an 18% rise in non-GAAP net profit for the core OTA business in 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Total revenue was RMB 4.4 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at RMB 788 million, reflecting a 41% growth [1]. - The core OTA business saw revenue of RMB 3.8 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in transportation ticketing and accommodation services [2]. Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is expected to reach RMB 4.7 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 13% [3]. - The report notes that while core OTA revenue growth may slow due to seasonal factors, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]. Profitability and Margins - The overall operating margin improved to 18.7% in Q1 2025, up from 11.8% in Q1 2024, with the core OTA business margin expanding to 29.2% [4]. - The report predicts continued expansion of the core OTA's non-GAAP operating margin to 25.5% in Q2 2025, supported by healthy revenue growth and optimized sales and marketing expenses [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit expectations remain largely unchanged [1][12]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of RMB 19.5 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [10].
贝克微:私募完成,现聚焦于执行。-20250526
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-05-26 03:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for BaTeLab is reiterated as "Buy" with a target price maintained at HK$69.5, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current price of HK$50.70 [2][4]. Core Insights - BaTeLab successfully raised HK$120 million through a private placement, which will be used to enhance upstream manufacturing capabilities and for general operational funding. This is crucial for the company's future expansion in the industrial-grade analog IC market [1][2]. - The company is expected to experience robust revenue growth, with projected growth rates of 27%-33% from 2025 to 2027, alongside high profitability with expected gross margins of 53%-54% during the same period [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 464 million in FY23A to RMB 770 million in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 109.2 million in FY23A to RMB 216.7 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1% [3][11]. - The company's P/E ratio is currently at 12.9x for FY25E, which is significantly lower than the average of 38x for domestic peers, indicating an attractive valuation [2][10]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholders include Li Zhen with 53.5% and Zhang Guangping with 39.5% of the shares [5]. Market Performance - Over the past month, BaTeLab's stock has shown a slight increase of 0.2%, while over three months, it has risen by 59.4% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is trading at a P/B ratio of 0.43, which is appealing compared to the industry average [2]. - The projected EPS for FY25E is RMB 3.61, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.9x, indicating strong earnings potential [3][11].
海底捞(06862.HK):稳中求进,积极进取
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-26 02:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue growth and profit improvement through various strategic initiatives [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the company successfully incubating new brands and expanding its store network [8] - The company is enhancing its operational model through a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strict control over franchisee standards [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027 [1] Operational Strategies - The company is implementing a dual management model and exclusive customer manager system to optimize its management practices [8] - A strict selection mechanism for franchisees is in place, ensuring quality and operational capability [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimization are being pursued through the use of big data and AI technologies [8]
海底捞:稳中求进,积极进取-20250526
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-26 02:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue and profit growth driven by operational optimizations and new brand incubations [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with 11 new restaurant brands and 74 new stores established by the end of 2024, indicating a potential second growth curve for the company [8] - The company is implementing a strict selection mechanism for franchisees to ensure quality and service standards, with 13 franchise stores already operational by the end of 2024 [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimizations are being pursued through AI technology and data analysis, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 17.21 to 14.70 over the same period [1]
小米集团-W:发布YU7及玄戒芯片等新品,继续看好“人车家”全生态齐头并进-20250526
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-26 02:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Views - The company continues to focus on the "people, vehicles, and home" ecosystem, launching new products such as the YU7 SUV and the Xuanjie chips, which are expected to drive growth [7] - The YU7 SUV is positioned as a high-performance luxury vehicle with impressive specifications, including a maximum horsepower of 690 PS and a range of 835 km, which is the highest for mid-to-large electric SUVs [7] - The self-developed Xuanjie O1 chip marks Xiaomi as the fourth company globally to design a 3nm process mobile SoC, enhancing its product capabilities [7] - The company has seen a 15.7% year-on-year increase in total smartphone shipments, with a growing market share in both global and domestic markets [7] - The report forecasts significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 691.16 billion yuan by 2027, and net profit projected to reach 59.31 billion yuan in the same year [1][8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Xiaomi Group-W are as follows: - 2023: 270.97 billion yuan - 2024: 365.91 billion yuan - 2025: 483.50 billion yuan - 2026: 608.29 billion yuan - 2027: 691.16 billion yuan - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 17.48 billion yuan - 2024: 23.66 billion yuan - 2025: 34.31 billion yuan - 2026: 46.73 billion yuan - 2027: 59.31 billion yuan [1][8] - The report indicates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected to reach 2.29 yuan by 2027 [1][8] Market Position - Xiaomi's market share in the high-end smartphone segment has increased, with a 3% year-on-year rise to 23.3% in 2024 [7] - The company plans to expand its retail presence internationally, aiming to open approximately 10,000 new Xiaomi stores overseas in the next five years [7]
小米集团-W(01810):发布YU7及玄戒芯片等新品,继续看好“人车家”全生态齐头并进
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-26 02:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Views - The company continues to focus on the "people, vehicles, and home" ecosystem, launching new products such as the YU7 SUV and the Xuanjie chips, which are expected to drive growth [7] - The YU7 SUV is positioned as a high-performance luxury vehicle with impressive specifications, including a maximum horsepower of 690 PS and a range of 835 km, which is the highest for mid-to-large electric SUVs [7] - The self-developed Xuanjie O1 chip marks Xiaomi as the fourth company globally to design a 3nm process mobile SoC, enhancing its product capabilities [7] - The company is expanding its high-end product offerings, with a 15.7% year-on-year increase in total smartphone shipments in 2024, and a 3% increase in the domestic high-end smartphone market share [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 270.97 billion in 2023 to CNY 691.16 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from CNY 17.48 billion in 2023 to CNY 59.31 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 26.93% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from CNY 0.67 in 2023 to CNY 2.29 in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 73.19 in 2023 to 21.56 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [1] Market Position - Xiaomi's market capitalization is approximately CNY 1,043.39 million, with a closing price of HKD 53.00 [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 6.47 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.07% [6] - The company aims to expand its retail presence internationally, planning to open around 10,000 new Xiaomi stores overseas in the next five years [7]
海底捞(06862):稳中求进,积极进取
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-26 01:28
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with a strong emphasis on optimizing its operational model and expanding its store network [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the company successfully incubating new brands and expanding its market presence [8] - The company is leveraging digital upgrades and supply chain optimization to enhance customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million in 2023 to 47,244 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million in 2023 to 5,269 million by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 in 2023 to 0.95 by 2027, indicating a steady growth trajectory [1] Operational Strategy - The company is implementing a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strict standards for franchisee entry, focusing on product, scene, and management optimization [8] - The company has initiated a franchise model with a rigorous selection process, ensuring quality and standardization across its outlets [8] - The company has launched multiple new restaurant brands under the "Red Pomegranate" initiative, aiming to create a second growth curve [8] Digital and Supply Chain Enhancements - The company is utilizing big data and AI technologies to improve customer feedback processing and enhance service quality [8] - The proprietary "HiHi System" app has achieved over 20,000 monthly clicks, indicating strong user engagement [8] - The deployment of over 50 AI robots across various operational areas is aimed at improving efficiency and customer service [8]
同程旅行(0780):同程旅行2025年第一季度收益回顾持续专注于提升货币化和盈利能力
Ubs Securities· 2025-05-26 00:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tongcheng Travel with a 12-month price target of HK$24.50, implying a potential upside of 19.5% from the current price of HK$20.50 [7][29]. Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel's 1Q25 earnings were in line with revenue expectations, with a margin beat. The management highlighted improving pricing trends in domestic hotel average daily rates (ADR) and airfare, expecting this momentum to continue due to resilient travel demand and a low base effect [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing monetization through improved value-added services (VAS) sales, effective cross-selling between transportation and hotel products, and optimized subsidies, which could sustain high take rates of approximately 4% for transportation and 9.5% for accommodation in 2Q [2][3]. - Core OTA revenue is expected to slow down temporarily in 2Q with a year-over-year growth estimate of 13.4%, but is projected to return to high-teens growth in the second half of the year as the base effect normalizes [2][4]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Total revenue estimates for 2Q and 2025 remain unchanged at 9.9% and 12.1% year-over-year growth, respectively. The core OTA business is expected to maintain healthy growth at 13.4% for 2Q and 16.4% for FY25E [4][11]. - The adjusted net margin is projected to remain stable at 15.9% for 2Q and 17.2% for 2025E [4]. Business Updates - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) is estimated to have experienced negative year-over-year growth in 1Q due to weakness in domestic airfare, while domestic hotel GMV is expected to show healthy double-digit room night growth [3]. - Outbound air ticketing and hotel room nights saw robust growth of 40-50% year-over-year in 1Q, with management targeting to improve this mix to high-single digits by 4Q [3]. - The company currently manages 2,500 hotels, with over 1,400 in the pipeline, and expects the addition of Wanda Hotel Management to enhance its brand portfolio and profitability [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a DCF-based price target of HK$24.50, which implies a P/E ratio of 15x for 2025 and 13x for 2026 [5][12]. - The company is trading at a P/E of 13.3x for 2025, which is considered undemanding with a PEG ratio of 0.8x [2][5]. Financial Highlights - Revenue projections for Tongcheng Travel show significant growth from Rmb6,585 million in 2022 to an estimated Rmb19,447 million in 2025, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb646 million in 2022 to Rmb3,364 million in 2025 [6]. - The adjusted diluted EPS is projected to increase from Rmb0.29 in 2022 to Rmb1.46 in 2025, with a dividend per share expected to grow from Rmb0.00 in 2022 to Rmb0.20 in 2025 [6][8].
特海国际(09658):点评报告:一季度同店翻台率同比提升,经营利润率短期承压
Haitong Securities International· 2025-05-25 14:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Super Hi International Holding [2][6][14] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached USD 198 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with restaurant operations contributing USD 188 million, up 4.5% YoY [3][13] - The net profit attributable to owners was USD 11.94 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of USD 4.46 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a reduction in net exchange losses [3][13] - The operating profit margin at the restaurant level was 4.1%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points YoY [3][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are USD 880 million, USD 980 million, and USD 1.08 billion, respectively, with YoY growth of 13%, 11%, and 11% [6][14] - Net profit projections for the same period are USD 46 million, USD 53 million, and USD 66 million, representing YoY growth of 111%, 15%, and 24% [6][14] - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from USD 0.03 in 2024 to USD 0.07 in 2025, USD 0.08 in 2026, and USD 0.10 in 2027 [6][14] Operational Insights - The company had a total of 123 restaurants at the end of Q1 2025, with a net increase of 4 locations YoY [4] - The average daily sales for same-store operations in East Asia increased by 16.3% YoY, while the overall average table turnover rate improved to 4.0 times per day [4][6] Cost Structure - Material and consumable costs increased by 7.0% to USD 67 million, accounting for 34% of revenue [5] - Employee costs rose by 9.8% to USD 70 million, making up 35.3% of revenue [5] - Rental and related expenses increased by 26% to USD 6 million, representing 2.8% of revenue [5]