Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, with a target valuation of 25,047 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 147 USD per ADS and 143 HKD per share, indicating an upside potential of 48% and 45% respectively [5][9][118]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the domestic internet cloud business has emerged from a low point, with AI and international expansion serving as new growth drivers. The shift in focus towards AI-driven public cloud services is expected to enhance revenue growth and profitability [6][7][12]. - Alibaba's cloud business is identified as a core strategic focus, with significant investments in AI capabilities and self-developed chips, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth in the coming years [10][11][12]. - The report highlights that AI applications are beginning to show tangible contributions to revenue, particularly in cloud services and advertising, with significant growth in AI-related product revenues [75][110]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For FY2025 to FY2027, the projected revenues for Alibaba Group are 10,186 billion RMB, 10,934 billion RMB, and 11,843 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 8.2%, 7.3%, and 8.3% respectively. Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 1,570 billion RMB, 1,706 billion RMB, and 1,838 billion RMB, with growth rates of -0.9%, 8.7%, and 7.8% respectively [4][118][119]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is expected to improve, with forecasts of 7.5%, 7.8%, and 8.0% for FY2025 to FY2027 [118][121]. Key Assumptions - The report posits that Alibaba's self-developed chips and model capabilities will enhance the growth of its cloud business, with revenue growth rates for Alibaba Cloud projected at 7.5%, 10.0%, and 11.0% for FY2025 to FY2027 [10][118]. - The strategic focus on public cloud products is expected to lead to improved profit margins, as the company reduces low-margin integrated projects [7][10][110]. Market Comparison - The report notes that Alibaba's cloud business has maintained the largest market share in IaaS and PaaS, although it has seen a decline from over 40% to below 30% from 2019 to 2023, while competitors like Huawei have gained market share [63][66]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with AI becoming a critical factor in cloud service growth, as seen in the performance of international peers like Microsoft and Amazon [39][112].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 75.00, indicating a potential upside of 53.8% from the current price of HKD 48.75 [1][4][9]. Core Insights - The overall performance of New Oriental is expected to be influenced by uncertainties surrounding the Oriental Selection business, but the education and cultural tourism segments remain robust. The contribution of Oriental Selection to overall profits is deemed minor [1][2]. - The revenue contribution from Oriental Selection for the fiscal year 2025 is adjusted down to 12% from the previous 15%, with revenue forecasts for Oriental Selection set at USD 623 million for FY25 and USD 710 million for FY26 [2][3]. - The education and cultural tourism businesses are projected to grow at a rate of 31% for FY25, with an operational profit margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 13%, translating to approximately USD 580 million [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue for FY25 is forecasted at USD 5.079 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 31%. The operational profit margin is expected to improve to 13% [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is projected at USD 553 million, with a net profit margin of 10.9% [3][10]. - The report anticipates a revenue of USD 1.007 billion for Q2 FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28% [2][6]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve to 54.9% in FY25, with operational profit margins projected to reach 10.9% [3][10]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25 is estimated at USD 551 million, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [3][10]. - The report highlights a projected increase in cash flow from operating activities, expected to reach USD 1.138 billion by FY25 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 42.9 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% [6][7]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.8 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 156% [6][7]. - The company expects Q4 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 21.4% to 29.0% [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company delivered 153,000 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41% [7]. - The average revenue per vehicle in Q3 2024 was approximately 270,000 yuan, which is a decrease of 49,000 yuan year-on-year and 9,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points but an increase of 2.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1 percentage points [8]. - The selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio was 7.8%, while the R&D expense ratio was 6.0% for Q3 2024 [8]. Sales and Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts sales of new vehicles to be 510,000, 710,000, and 850,000 units for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - Revenue projections for the same years are 146 billion yuan, 206.4 billion yuan, and 250.2 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Valuation - The report uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, estimating PS ratios of 1.3, 0.9, and 0.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - The reasonable value range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 105.56 and 113.10 HKD based on a PS ratio of 1.4 to 1.5 for 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huarun Building Materials Technology (1313 HK) [7] Core Views - The report expects price elasticity in the South China market in Q4 2024, driven by seasonal factors and regional supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The Greater Bay Area construction provides medium-term growth momentum for the South China cement market [5] - The company's strategic shift from market share to collaboration has had an immediate positive impact on regional prices [5] - The company's aggressive expansion into aggregates is entering a harvest period, providing a new growth curve [5] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 16 billion yuan, down 6% YoY, and net profit of 310 million yuan, down 52% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 net profit was 140 million yuan, up 77% YoY [3] - Cement and clinker sales volume was 43 86 million tons, down 7% YoY [4] - Ready-mixed concrete sales volume was 8 29 million cubic meters, up 33% YoY [4] - Aggregates sales volume was 46 28 million tons, up 71% YoY [4] Market Dynamics - National cement production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 1 327 billion tons, down 10 7% YoY [3] - New housing construction starts in the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 22 2% YoY [3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 4 1% in the first three quarters of 2024, lower than the 5 9% growth in 2023 [3] - Cement prices in the Yangtze River Delta region have increased by approximately 100 yuan/ton since October 2024 [4] Company Strategy - The company shifted its pricing strategy from market share to collaboration in Q2 2024, leading to significant price elasticity [5] - The company is well-positioned as a regional leader with scale and location advantages [5] - The company's aggregates business is becoming a significant contributor to growth [5] Industry Outlook - Fiscal policy adjustments and increased liquidity injection by the central bank in October 2024 are expected to benefit the cement sector [5] - Debt resolution efforts may reduce interest expenses and open up mid-term leverage space, potentially improving infrastructure demand [5] - Industry supply-side changes, including overcapacity management and carbon trading, may lead to cost increases for small enterprises and strengthen collaboration [5] Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 660 million yuan and 1 16 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19x and 11x [5]

新东方（EDU/9901） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|--------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is transitioning into a manufacturer of new energy commercial vehicles, aiming to penetrate the European new energy commercial vehicle market [10] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Handerson Automotive Technology for HKD 166 million is a significant step in expanding the company's automotive business from sales and after-sales services to full-scale OEM manufacturing [2][10] - The company leverages a light-asset model to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, allowing for quicker development cycles and lower initial investments [4][5] Company Background - The company primarily engages in investment holding, with its main businesses being automotive distribution and property investment [1] - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of HKD 47.504 million, with automotive business contributing HKD 15.839 million (33%) and property investment generating HKD 31.665 million (67%) [1] Business Model and Operations - Handerson utilizes China's automotive production capacity and supply chain advantages, focusing on the development and manufacturing of new energy logistics vehicles [3] - The company has established strategic partnerships with Dongfeng Motor and JAC Motors to enhance its R&D capabilities [3] - The light-asset model allows the company to significantly reduce development time and upfront investment, exemplified by the eBOLD logistics vehicle, which took only one year from project initiation to delivery [4] Market Opportunity - The European market for new energy commercial vehicles is still in its early stages, with only 7% of new registered vans being electric as of 2023 [6][9] - The report highlights a growing demand for new energy vehicles in Europe, driven by regulatory changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions [6][9] - The company has received orders for 800 vehicles in 2024 and plans to increase this to 2,000 vehicles per month in 2025 [5] Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in Europe is low compared to traditional diesel vehicles, presenting a significant growth opportunity [7][9] - The company faces challenges from established European manufacturers and must invest in technology and brand recognition to capture a larger market share [10]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 证券研究报告 龙源电力 ( 00916 ) | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wynn Macau (1128 HK) [1] Core Views - Wynn Macau's Q3 2024 performance fell short of expectations, with market share remaining stable [1] - The company aims to maximize EBITDA by focusing on product and service enhancements, despite intense competition in Macau [2] - Q3 2024 adjusted property EBITDAR margin declined QoQ, though it improved compared to Q3 2019 levels [3] - Revenue recovery in Q3 2024 reached 81 2% of Q3 2019 levels, with gaming and non-gaming net revenues recovering to 78 9% and 93 8% respectively [3] - Adjusted property EBITDAR for Q3 2024 was USD 260 million, down 6 2% QoQ but recovering to 87 3% of 2019 levels [3] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 gaming revenue reached USD 880 million, recovering to 70 4% of Q3 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue recovered to 25 3% of Q3 2019 levels [1] - Mass market (including slots) gaming revenue recovered to 106 7% of Q3 2019 levels [1] - Total revenue forecast for 2024-2026: HKD 28 737 million, HKD 31 039 million, and HKD 32 661 million respectively [1] Profitability - Adjusted property EBITDA forecast for 2024-2026: HKD 8 995 million, HKD 9 587 million, and HKD 10 018 million respectively [1] - EV/Adjusted property EBITDA multiples for 2024-2026: 7 89x, 7 40x, and 7 08x respectively [1] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: HKD 0 48, HKD 0 56, and HKD 0 64 respectively [1] Operational Metrics - Hotel occupancy rate reached 99% in July 2024 [2] - Daily operating expenses increased by 2 0% QoQ to USD 2 55 million in Q3 2024 [3] - Adjusted property EBITDAR margin was 30 2% in Q3 2024, down 1 5 percentage points QoQ but up 2 1 percentage points compared to Q3 2019 [3] Market Position - Wynn Macau's mass market recovery (106 7%) lagged behind the industry average (107 1%) in Q3 2024 [1] - VIP recovery (25 3%) was significantly below the industry average (42 1%) in Q3 2024 [1] - The company plans to optimize and expand F&B facilities and renovate Chairman's Club to enhance service quality [2] Valuation - Target price: HKD 8 2 [4] - Current price: HKD 6 00 [5] - 52-week range: HKD 4 74 - HKD 8 30 [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" to the company, indicating a relative strength compared to the market performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 100.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.51 billion yuan, down 25.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - Q3 revenue reached 42.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 2.81 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter but a significant increase of 155.2% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q3 sales were strong, with total sales of 153,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41%. The L6 model contributed significantly, with sales of 75,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 92%, accounting for 49.2% of total sales [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 was 21.5%, with the automotive business gross margin at 20.9%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2 percentage points. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 270,000 yuan, slightly down by 0.9 thousand yuan [3][4]. - R&D expenses for Q3 were 2.59 billion yuan, with a rate of 6.0%, down 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q4 delivery volumes to be between 160,000 and 170,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.4% to 29.0%. Projected revenue for Q4 is between 43.2 billion and 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% to 10.0% [3][4]. - The company has developed and operated 1,000 supercharging stations, leading the industry in the number of self-built high-speed charging stations, which supports the sales of high-end pure electric products [4][5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are revised to 145.98 billion, 194.13 billion, and 215.65 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 7.52 billion, 12.60 billion, and 16.43 billion yuan for the same period [4][5].

股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.06 业务稳步推进，自愿禁售和回购彰显信心 锅圈(2517) [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|-------------------|-----------------------------| | | | | ——锅圈事件点评 | | | [table_Authors] 刘越男 ( 分析师 ) | 宋小寒 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38677706 | 010-83939087 | | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | | songxiaohan026736@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | ...