Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 65.10 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 operational data aligns with expectations, with retail gas sales volume increasing by 5.5% year-on-year, driven by residential and commercial sales growth of 4.6% and 6.2% respectively [1]. - The management anticipates that the overall sales volume for retail gas will grow by 5% and segment gross profit will increase by 10% for the full year of 2024 [1]. - The diversified energy segment is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 20% for the full year, supported by new projects transitioning to operations and additional management services contributing to revenue [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Gas Sales - Q3 retail gas sales volume reached 5,793 million cubic meters, with residential sales at 714 million cubic meters and commercial sales at 4,973 million cubic meters [4]. - The gross margin for gas sales was reported at RMB 0.54 per cubic meter, consistent with the annual guidance [1][5]. Capital Expenditure and Financials - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters was RMB 4.6 billion, significantly below the annual guidance of RMB 8 billion, with management prioritizing debt repayment over additional buybacks or dividends [2]. - The LNG trading segment reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 280 million for the first three quarters, within the guidance range of RMB 200-300 million [2]. Future Guidance - The company has set ambitious targets for 2024, including a 20-30% growth in energy usage scale and a 20-30% increase in smart home business gross profit [4]. - The annual target for new commercial users is set at 1,200 to 1,400 million cubic meters per day, with residential user additions expected to be between 140,000 to 160,000 households [4].

Equity – Asia Research 从复盘Moncler和Canada Goose看企业四季化转型的驱动力 Analyzing Moncler and Canada Goose: The Driving Forces Behind Seasonal Business Transformation 盛开Kai Sheng k.sheng@htisec.com 梁希Xi Liang xi.liang@htisec.com Xiaorui Hu amber.xr.hu@htisec.com 27 Oct 2024 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 投资建议与风险提示 投资建议： 通过分析对比Moncler和Canada Go ...

干源证券 商贸零售/专业连锁Ⅱ 滔搏（06110.HK） 2024 年 10 月 28 日 FY2025H1 折扣及负经营杠杆致利润承压，控费能力优异 ——港股公司信息更新报告 吕明（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/25 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 2.810 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 6.960/2.110 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 174.25 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 174.25 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 62.01 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 62.01 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 27.8 | 股价走势图 -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 滔搏 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《弱需求下经营负杠杆、折扣加深致 盈利预警，坚定高分红—港股公司信 息更新报告》-2024.9.11 《Q1 线下客流承 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 6-month outlook [2] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue surged over 120% YoY, with overseas revenue growing 4x [2] - Domestic online and offline channels showed strong growth, with e-commerce platforms increasing 135%-140% YoY [2] - International expansion accelerated, with 22 new stores opened in Q3 2024, bringing total overseas stores to 114 [3] - The company continues to diversify IP monetization channels and expand product categories [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 mainland China revenue grew 55%-60% YoY [2] - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas revenue increased 440%-445% YoY [2] - The company is projected to achieve 2024-2025 revenues of 12 5/17 2 billion yuan, representing 98 4%/37 4% growth respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for 2024-2025 is forecasted at 3 14/4 40 billion yuan, with 163%/40% growth [5] Channel Performance - Offline retail stores grew 30%-35% YoY [2] - Offline robot stores increased 20%-25% YoY [2] - Online blind box machines rose 55%-60% YoY [2] - Tmall flagship store sales jumped 155%-160% YoY [2] - Douyin flagship store sales increased 115%-120% YoY [2] Product Development - Released 11/12/9 blind box products in July/August/September 2024 [2] - Launched 6/8/4 MEGA collectible series in July/August/September 2024 [2] - Introduced new product categories including cards, building blocks, and POP CUBE series [4] - Expanded IP monetization through game integration and physical product collaborations [4] International Expansion - Opened 22 new overseas stores in Q3 2024, exceeding H1 2024 additions [3] - Expanded to multiple countries including Thailand, Netherlands, Italy, USA, and Indonesia [3] - Total overseas stores reached 114 by September 2024 [3] Market Position - Current share price: 70 75 HKD [2] - Market capitalization: 95 013 23 million HKD [1] - Price-to-book ratio: 6 85 HKD [1] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 23 28% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set above the current price of 70.75 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 120%-125% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with mainland China revenue growing by 55%-60% and revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas regions soaring by 440%-445% [2][3]. - The company is expanding its retail presence, with 22 new stores opened in Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas by the end of September 2024, bringing the total to 114 stores [3]. - The company is diversifying its IP monetization channels and enhancing product interactivity, with new product lines and collaborations with various retail partners [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024-2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.5 billion HKD and 17.2 billion HKD, representing year-on-year growth of 98.4% and 37.4% respectively [5]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period is expected to be 3.14 billion HKD and 4.4 billion HKD, with growth rates of 163% and 40% [5]. Market Expansion - The company has accelerated its international market expansion, with notable growth in overseas revenue driven by strong demand and rapid store openings [3]. - The online channels in Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas are transitioning from broad strategies to more refined operations, leveraging membership systems and holiday promotions [3]. Product Development - The company continues to innovate its product offerings, launching new categories such as cards and building blocks, and enhancing the playability of its products [4]. - Collaborations with various retail outlets have been established to facilitate rapid distribution of products [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Development, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit during the current period, attributed to project turnover timing and the structural impact of high land prices and low-margin projects [4]. - Despite the challenges, the company demonstrated strong sales resilience, outperforming the top 10 real estate companies in terms of sales decline [4]. - The company is focusing its investments on first and second-tier cities, maintaining a strong land acquisition strategy [4]. - Financially, the company remains robust with low net debt ratios and financing costs, positioning it well for future recovery [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 180,322 million RMB, with a projected revenue of 202,524 million RMB for 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 12.31% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 23,265 million RMB, with a forecasted net profit of 25,610 million RMB for 2023, indicating a growth rate of 10.08% [3]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 2.13 RMB, expected to be 2.34 RMB in 2023 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.39 for 2023, indicating a favorable valuation [3]. Sales and Market Position - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved sales of 198.848 billion RMB, a decline of 16.8% year-on-year, while the top 10 real estate companies saw a decline of 32.5% [4]. - The company ranked second among the top 100 real estate companies in terms of sales, improving its position from the previous year [4]. Land Acquisition Strategy - In the first nine months of 2024, the company acquired land in 9 cities with a total investment of 20.3 billion RMB, focusing heavily on first and second-tier cities [4]. - The equity acquisition amount reached 18.6 billion RMB, with an equity ratio of 91.5% [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a slight decrease in net profit for 2024 to 24.252 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 7.2% and 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E valuation of 6.0x for 2024, indicating potential for future appreciation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$19.58, reflecting a potential upside of 23.3% from the current price of HK$15.88 [3][6][18]. Core Insights - The company has reiterated its FY24E targets, but the report expresses caution due to weak demand and inventory buildup. However, gradual improvement is anticipated for FY25E [1][6]. - Retail sales in Q3 2024 showed a slight improvement compared to expectations, with e-commerce growth outpacing offline channels. The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival for sales performance [1][6]. - The management's focus on cost-saving measures and efficiency improvements is noted, but concerns remain regarding operating profit margins due to increased retail discounts and fixed operational costs [1][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue Overview - The company reported revenues of RMB 28,162 million for FY24E, with a projected growth of 2% [2][7]. - Revenue growth is expected to improve to 7.2% in FY25E and 8.4% in FY26E [11][14]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit for FY24E is projected at RMB 3,103 million, with a net profit margin of 11% [7][12]. - The report anticipates a gradual increase in net profit to RMB 3,466 million in FY25E and RMB 3,895 million in FY26E [7][12]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 11x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to the target P/E of 13x [6][16]. - The expected dividend yield for FY25E is 4% [6][16]. Inventory and Sales Dynamics - The inventory turnover ratio is approximately 5 months, indicating a slight increase from the previous quarter [1][6]. - Retail discounts have widened in offline channels, while e-commerce discounts have shown improvement [1][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has formed a joint venture to expand its brand presence in the Belt and Road regions, with significant investments planned [6][11]. - The management remains committed to achieving sales growth targets despite current market challenges [1][6].

28 Oct 2024 收益汇总 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Topsports(6110 香港) 尽管收益率诱人 ， 但仍需要更多时间 1H25 的业绩与盈利预警相符，但基础状况比我们先前认为的更加脆弱。鉴于 2 H25E 的前景进一步恶化，以及耐克可能需要一年到两年时间来扭转局面，我 们将 Topsports 的评级下调为"持有"，尽管其 FY2/25E 的股息收益率为 8%。 Topsports(6110 HK) 报告了上半年的内联业绩。 Topsports 销售额同比下 降8%，至人民币131亿元，净利润同比下降35%，至人民币8.74亿元，与预先 发布的盈利预警完全一致。具体来说，这些不理想的业绩主要归因于：1）线下 流量大幅下降，导致经营杠杆减弱；2）毛利率下降，主要是由于零售折扣增加 和低毛利电商销售占比上升。然而，毛利率降至41.1%（下降3.6个百分点）， 降幅超出预期，但被超出预期的成本控制所抵消（可能是因为门店关闭数量超 出预期）。另一方面，经营活动产生的净现金流入同比增长3%，每股派息人民 币1.6元，意味着接近100%的派息率（相比之下，去年为74%）。 我们认 ...

28 Oct 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Topsports (6110 HK) More time is needed despite the attractive yield 1H25 results were inline with the profit warning, but the underlying was more fragile than we previously thought. Given the worsening outlook in 2H25E and time Nike may take to turn around (might be 1 to 2 years), we downgrade Topsports' rating to HOLD, even though it has a 8% FY2/25E yield. Topsports (6110 HK) reported inline 1H25 results. Top ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][6][17]. Core Views - The company has slightly exceeded retail sales growth expectations in 3Q24, but there are concerns regarding weak demand and inventory levels for FY24E. A gradual improvement into FY25E is anticipated [2][6]. - The management has reiterated a low-single-digit sales growth and low-teen net profit margin for FY24E, but the report adopts a more conservative stance, projecting only 2% sales growth and an 11% net profit margin [2][6]. - The company is focused on cost savings and efficiency improvements, including reductions in advertising and promotional expenses and store closures, but there are concerns about operating profit margins due to increased retail discounts and fixed operating expenses [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 28,162 million in FY24E to RMB 30,195 million in FY25E, reflecting a growth rate of 7.2% [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3,103 million in FY24E to RMB 3,466 million in FY25E, with a net profit margin of 11.5% [3][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.19 in FY24E to RMB 1.33 in FY25E [3][11]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company has been raised to HK$19.58, based on a 13x FY25E P/E ratio, while the current trading P/E is 11x [4][6]. - The report highlights a dividend yield of 4% for FY25E, which is considered attractive [2][6]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a 23.3% upside potential from the current price of HK$15.88 to the target price [4]. - Recent retail sales trends indicate a mixed performance, with e-commerce growth being more resilient compared to offline sales [2][6].