Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Swire Properties (1972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.55 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with improvements in the operation of shopping centers in mainland China. Retail sales in key locations such as Shanghai and Beijing showed positive growth, while declines in other areas were significantly reduced compared to 2024 [2][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive advantage of Swire Properties due to its prime location shopping centers and robust leasing capabilities, which are expected to drive rental income growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 14,428 million, HKD 14,616 million, HKD 14,995 million, and HKD 18,638 million respectively, with growth rates of -2.1%, 1.3%, 2.6%, and 24.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -HKD 766 million in 2024, increasing to HKD 2,676 million in 2025, HKD 4,132 million in 2026, and HKD 5,671 million in 2027, with growth rates of -129.0%, 449.3%, 54.4%, and 37.2% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -HKD 0.13 in 2024, HKD 0.46 in 2025, HKD 0.72 in 2026, and HKD 0.98 in 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained full occupancy, with slight improvements in retail sales growth compared to the previous year [8]. - The overall rental market for office spaces in Hong Kong remains under pressure due to oversupply, with an occupancy rate of 89% in Q1 [8]. Investment Recommendation - Swire Properties is characterized as a commercial real estate company that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive moat. The expected growth in net profit and consistent dividend growth of 5% annually supports the investment thesis [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 604.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.9% from the current price of HKD 521.00 [1][39]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue growing 13% year-on-year to RMB 180 billion, surpassing market expectations by 4% [2][6]. - The growth was driven by strong performance in domestic games, social networking, and marketing services, with notable contributions from AI investments and cost optimizations in payment and cloud services [6][7]. - The report highlights that the integration of AI across Tencent's business ecosystem is expected to enhance platform traffic and advertising revenue stability [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show a steady increase, with expected revenues of RMB 609 billion in 2023, RMB 660 billion in 2024, and RMB 723 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.6% [3][42]. - Net profit is projected to grow from RMB 157.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 250.2 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 16.33 to RMB 27.23 over the same period [3][42]. - The report notes an improvement in gross margin, with a projected gross margin of 54.5% for Q2 2025, up from 53.5% in the previous quarter [37]. Segment Performance - Domestic game revenue is expected to continue its rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 24% in Q1 2025, supported by a low base from the previous year and the success of new game launches [6][7]. - Social networking revenue grew by 7% year-on-year, driven by increased music subscription services and mobile game in-app purchases [6][7]. - Marketing services revenue saw a significant boost, with video account revenue increasing by over 60% [6][7]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Capital expenditures reached RMB 27.5 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 91% year-on-year increase, primarily due to ongoing investments in AI and cloud service infrastructure [6][7]. - The report emphasizes that some of these investments have already started to yield revenue contributions, particularly in advertising optimization and content recommendation algorithms [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (0135.HK) [6]. Core Views - Kunlun Energy, as a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation, is positioned to benefit from the high-quality development of its natural gas terminal business, with a projected net profit of 6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1][4]. - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% by 2024, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][46]. - The natural gas sales business is expected to maintain strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7% in revenue from 2016 to 2024, supported by a stable supply of high-quality gas from its parent company [2][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Kunlun Energy is the largest natural gas terminal utilization enterprise in China, focusing on natural gas sales and comprehensive utilization, with operations covering 28 provinces and municipalities by the end of 2024 [17][26]. - The company achieved a natural gas sales volume of 54.2 billion cubic meters in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [17][26]. 2. Business Development - The natural gas sales business is expanding, with a significant focus on industrial gas sales, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24.35% from 2018 to 2024 [2][58]. - The company has established two LNG receiving stations with a total unloading capacity of 13 million tons per year, contributing a pre-tax profit of 3.577 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of 75% [3][72]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 6.649 billion yuan, 7.124 billion yuan, and 7.598 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights a stable financial structure with a projected revenue of 187.046 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.46% [5][28]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Kunlun Energy benefits from a strong resource supply from its parent company, which allows it to maintain a competitive edge in purchasing costs compared to other gas companies [2][64]. - The company is gradually transitioning from upstream oil exploration to focus on natural gas terminal utilization, reducing its cyclical exposure [3][89].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - Geely Automobile announced plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr at a suggested purchase price of $2.57 per share or $25.66 per American depositary share, aiming for complete integration of Zeekr as a wholly-owned subsidiary [2][5]. - The integration of Zeekr is seen as a positive long-term development for Geely, enhancing brand positioning and internal resource integration, which is expected to lower costs and improve competitiveness [9]. - The company is entering a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with a strong new vehicle cycle and successful transitions to new energy across its brands [9]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - On May 7, 2025, Geely announced its plan to acquire all shares of Zeekr, currently holding approximately 65.7% of the shares [2][5]. - The proposed purchase price represents a premium of about 13.6% over the last trading day’s closing price and a 20% premium over the weighted average price of the last 30 trading days [9]. Financial Performance - Zeekr is expected to contribute positively to Geely's profitability, with Zeekr achieving a quarterly profit of 150 million yuan in Q4 2024 [9]. - Geely's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 16.1 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 9.8X [9]. Product Strategy - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, including five new models and several facelifts under the Geely brand [9]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its smart driving capabilities across its product lines, with significant advancements expected in the upcoming models [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported 1Q25 performance that exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 16-17% year-on-year, gross profit growth of 20-21%, and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 28-29%. This is primarily attributed to the optimization of the distribution business structure and the continuous increase in market share of domestic brands [5][6] - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the recovery of distribution losses and the demand driven by AI, which may lead to profit elasticity release. The Southeast Asian market continues to show high gross margins and growth rates, with gross margins expected to remain relatively stable [6][7] - The company is committed to broadening its product portfolio to meet the increasingly diverse needs of customers, enhancing overall market competitiveness. By deepening partnerships with globally recognized brands, the company has successfully built a comprehensive product ecosystem covering enterprise systems, consumer electronics, and cloud computing [7] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 11.78 billion, HKD 13.15 billion, and HKD 14.29 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 11.6%, and 8.7% [5][8] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is HKD 96.42 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2%. The company’s PE ratio for 2025 is projected to be 8X [8][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 12.2% in 2024 to 14.0% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 604.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.9% from the current price of HKD 521.00 [1][39]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue growing by 13% year-on-year to RMB 180 billion, surpassing market expectations by 4% [2][6]. - The growth was driven by strong performance in domestic games, social networks, and marketing services, with notable increases in revenue from video accounts and search services [6][7]. - The integration of AI into Tencent's business ecosystem is expected to enhance platform traffic and advertising revenue, contributing to sustained growth [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 609,015 million in 2023, RMB 660,257 million in 2024, and RMB 723,532 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.6% [3][42]. - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 157,688 million in 2023 to RMB 250,235 million in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 44.1% in 2024 [3][42]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 27.23 in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][42]. Segment Performance - Domestic game revenue grew by 24% year-on-year, supported by a low base from the previous year and the success of new game launches [6][7]. - Social network revenue increased by 7%, driven by growth in paid music subscriptions and mobile game in-app purchases [6][7]. - Marketing services revenue saw a 20% increase, primarily due to strong demand for advertising on video accounts and search services [6][7]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Capital expenditures reached RMB 27.5 billion, a 91% increase year-on-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud service infrastructure [6][7]. - The report highlights that some of these investments have already started to yield revenue contributions, particularly in advertising optimization and content recommendation algorithms [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 2025 revenue reached 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 3%. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.3 billion RMB, up 22% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations by 3% [2][3] - The gaming sector showed strong performance, with both domestic and international revenues hitting historical highs. Domestic game revenue exceeded 40 billion RMB for the first time in a single quarter, with significant contributions from long-standing titles [7] - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year, driven by the performance of video accounts and search functionalities, with AI enhancements contributing to the growth [7] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, with a record high gross margin of 50.3% achieved in Q1 2025 [7] - The company is making substantial investments in AI, with capital expenditures reaching 27.5 billion RMB in Q1 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024: 660.3 billion RMB - 2025E: 733.6 billion RMB - 2026E: 790.8 billion RMB - 2027E: 843.3 billion RMB - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 157.7 billion RMB - 2024: 222.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 252.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 283.7 billion RMB - 2027E: 311.4 billion RMB [4][11] - The report projects a target price of 694 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current price [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has a long history and strong brand heritage, founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping in 2000, establishing significant brand influence in the Chinese beauty industry [6][10] - The brand is experiencing accelerated growth and has substantial room for expansion, with a diverse range of high-repurchase products in the makeup category [6] - The company is driven by both product and channel strategies, continuously innovating in product offerings and maintaining a dual-channel approach for sales [6] - The brand has strong resource barriers, including a well-known professional makeup artist IP and unique high-end department store resources, which enhance consumer relationships and brand value [6] - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 5.368 billion, 6.976 billion, and 8.785 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, and net profits of 1.2 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB respectively [6] Company Overview - Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. has established itself as a leader in the high-end beauty market in China, with a focus on makeup, skincare, and makeup training [10][11] - The company has two main brands: MAOGEPING and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, with a product mix that includes makeup, skincare, and training services [10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 1.577 billion RMB in 2021 to 2.886 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 58% in 2023 [11] - The net profit increased from 331 million RMB in 2021 to 881 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [11] Market Analysis - The Chinese beauty market is projected to continue growing, with the skincare and makeup sectors expected to reach a market size of 876.3 billion RMB by 2028, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% [25] - High-end beauty brands are experiencing steeper growth curves compared to mass-market brands, with the high-end segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% from 2023 to 2028 [29][30] Product Strategy - The company is expanding its product lines in both makeup and skincare, with a focus on high-quality, high-priced products that reflect its premium positioning [63][81] - The makeup line includes a variety of products, with a strong emphasis on foundation and color cosmetics, while the skincare line is designed to enhance makeup application [64][69] Channel Strategy - The company employs a dual-channel strategy, leveraging both online and offline sales channels to maximize reach and consumer engagement [82] - The offline channel is expected to recover and grow, while online sales continue to dominate, reflecting changing consumer preferences [35][59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with total gaming revenue reaching HKD 10.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [5] - The company has seen a significant increase in market share, with VIP and mass market gaming revenue growing by 52.3% and 7.6% respectively [5] - The opening of the Capella hotel in early May is expected to attract high-end consumers, with over 50% of guests being direct VIP customers [5] - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, with total revenue projected at HKD 48.27 billion in 2025, HKD 51.38 billion in 2026, and HKD 53.17 billion in 2027 [5][6] Financial Projections - Total revenue (in million HKD) for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is projected to be 43,432.0, 48,273.2, 51,381.2, and 53,165.0 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 11.1%, 6.4%, and 3.5% [6] - Adjusted property EBITDA (in million HKD) is expected to be 12,187.6 for 2024A, 14,248.0 for 2025E, 15,667.8 for 2026E, and 16,136.9 for 2027E, with growth rates of 28.3%, 31.4%, 11.1%, and 2.0% respectively [6] - The diluted earnings per share (in HKD) are projected to be 2.00 for 2024A, 2.65 for 2025E, 3.09 for 2026E, and 3.17 for 2027E [6] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is HKD 32.00, with a market capitalization of HKD 139,997 million [3][4] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.84 and a current EV/Adjusted Property EBITDA of 10.24 for 2024A, decreasing to 7.74 by 2027E [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 2025 performance shows strong growth in gaming and advertising, with revenue reaching 180 billion yuan (up 13% year-on-year, up 4% quarter-on-quarter) and net profit of 47.8 billion yuan (up 14% year-on-year, down 7% quarter-on-quarter) [4][5] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D and AI, with R&D expenses of approximately 18.9 billion yuan (up 20.6% year-on-year) and capital expenditures of about 27.5 billion yuan (up 91.35% year-on-year) [5] - The introduction of AI technologies is expected to enhance user experience and drive long-term growth across core business areas [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the projected net profit is 216.9 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 23.6 yuan, and a PE ratio of 20.4 times [7] - Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with estimates of 707.1 billion yuan for 2025, 752.9 billion yuan for 2026, and 800.9 billion yuan for 2027 [7] - The company maintains a healthy gross margin, projected to be 53.8% in 2025, increasing to 55.1% by 2027 [7]