Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) with a target price of HKD 88 10 [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue exceeded market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 120%-125% Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60% while overseas revenue surged by 440%-445% [1] - The company's overseas expansion is accelerating with new stores opened in key markets such as South Korea Italy the Netherlands France and the US contributing to revenue growth [1] - Pop Mart's core IPs like MOLLY SKULLPANDA DIMOO and The MONSTERS continue to drive product innovation and sales growth [1] - The company's online revenue particularly through platforms like TikTok Shop and Tmall has shown significant growth with TikTok Shop achieving a record single-session sales of USD 280 000 [1] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's total revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 12 253 million a 93 1% increase from 2023A [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 2 711 million in 2024E up 150 5% from 2023A [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve to 66 3% in 2024E from 61 3% in 2023A [6] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0 80 in 2023A to RMB 2 02 in 2024E [2] Market Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue growth is driven by both store expansion and improved store efficiency with the number of overseas stores expected to reach 130-140 by the end of 2024 [1] - The company's strategy of localizing products and adopting a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model has been effective in penetrating international markets [1] Product and IP Strategy - Pop Mart continues to innovate with new IPs such as OIPIPPI Nyota CHAKA inosoul and POLAR which have contributed to revenue growth [1] - The company is expanding its product categories including building blocks and exploring new business areas like theme parks and games to enhance the value of its core IPs [1] Valuation and Projections - The report forecasts Pop Mart's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 2 711 million RMB 3 601 million and RMB 4 458 million respectively [1] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 34 5x in 2024E to 21 0x in 2026E reflecting strong earnings growth [2] Key Financial Metrics - Pop Mart's total assets are projected to grow from RMB 9 969 million in 2023A to RMB 23 348 million in 2026E [6] - The company's operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly from RMB 1 991 million in 2024E to RMB 3 644 million in 2026E [6] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 14 7% in 2023A to 29 7% in 2024E indicating improved profitability [6]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for TCL Electronics (01070) [1] Core Views - TCL Electronics' global TV shipments in Q3 2024 reached 7.49 million units, a YoY increase of 19.7%, with Q1-Q3 global shipments at 20.01 million units, up 12.9% YoY [1] - MiniLED TV shipments surged 163% globally, benefiting ASP growth [1] - Domestic shipments in Q3 increased by 5%, while overseas shipments grew by 24% [1] - MiniLED domestic shipments in Q1-Q3 rose 181% YoY, with a significant 6.9 percentage point increase in market share [1] - Overseas MiniLED shipments in Q1-Q3 grew 145% YoY, with Europe leading at 36% growth, followed by North America at 8% and emerging markets at 6% [1] - Panel price pressures are expected to ease, with 55-inch and 65-inch panel prices stabilizing in Q3 2024, supporting margin improvement [1] - Profit forecasts have been revised upward, with expected revenue of HKD 95.5/107.8/119.9 billion for 2024-2026, and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.35/1.65/2.0 billion [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at HKD 95.476 billion, a 21% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach HKD 1.35 billion, up 81% YoY [3] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 4.45% in 2023A to 7.66% in 2024E and 8.78% in 2025E [3] - EPS is expected to grow from HKD 0.31 in 2023A to HKD 0.54 in 2024E, HKD 0.65 in 2025E, and HKD 0.79 in 2026E [3] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 18.05% in 2024E, with net profit margin improving to 1.41% [5] Market and Operational Trends - TCL Electronics has shown strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with significant contributions from MiniLED technology [1] - The company's dual-brand strategy (TCL + Leihua) has been effective in maintaining market share and driving growth in domestic markets [1] - Overseas markets, particularly Europe and North America, have shown robust growth, with North America experiencing a turnaround in Q3 2024 [1] - Cost pressures from panel price increases are expected to ease, supporting profitability improvements [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 20% above the current price of 15.5 HKD [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in retail sales across offline channels, while e-commerce sales are showing growth. The total number of sales points has increased to 6,281, with a net addition of 42 points in the last quarter [2][3]. - A joint venture has been established to develop and operate the Li Ning brand outside mainland China, with a total capital of 200 million HKD. This move aims to enhance brand reputation and leverage cross-border resources [4]. - Supply chain integration has improved efficiency and product quality, with a focus on digital management and cost control strategies [5]. - Innovations in retail channels and logistics management are enhancing product turnover and distribution efficiency [6]. Summary by Sections Basic Data - Total shares outstanding: 2,584.48 million - Total market capitalization: 40,059.45 million HKD - Net asset value per share: 10.98 HKD - Debt-to-asset ratio: 27.10% - 1-year high/low price: 31.65/12.56 HKD [1]. Sales Performance - As of Q3 2024, retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) have decreased, with offline channels seeing a significant drop. E-commerce, however, has shown a positive trend [2][3]. Joint Venture Development - The joint venture aims to expand the Li Ning brand internationally, with significant cash contributions from various partners, ensuring a majority stake for Li Ning Group and its founder [4]. Supply Chain and Efficiency - The company has expanded its supply chain capacity, enhancing overall efficiency and product quality through strict supplier selection and digital management [5]. Retail and Logistics Innovations - The logistics management platform is improving, with new logistics centers set to enhance product flow and distribution efficiency [6].

c 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月25日 滔搏（06110.HK） 上半财年收入与净利润下滑，现金流充裕保持高派息率 优于大市 上半财年收入与净利润下滑，现金流充裕保持高派息率。2025 上半财年受到 宏观需求疲软以及线下客流下滑影响，收入同比-7.9%至 130.5 亿元；主要 受毛利率下滑、负向经营杠杆影响，归母净利润同比-34.6%至 8.7 亿元。分 商业模式看：零售/批发渠道分别同比-8.9%/-2.2%；零售模式分场景看，线 上渠道表现好于线下，直营线上占整体直营销售额比例提升至 30%，24 财年 底占比为 20-30%中段。分品牌看：主力品牌/其他品牌分别同比-8.1%/-6.5%。 上半财年毛利率同比-3.7 百分点至 41.1%，影响毛利率主要因素包括：折扣 率同比加深、毛利率较低的批发渠道占比提升、存货上升产生大约 9000 万 左右的存货拨备。同时受负经营杠杆影响，总体费用率小幅提升 0.2 百分点 至 33.1%。净利率同比-2.7 百分点至 6.7%。公司仍保持良好的现金创收能力， 经营活动现金流净额为 26.1 亿元，同比+2.5%，净现比为 3.0。充裕的现金 流为派息奠定 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $60 for the US stock and HK$47 for the Hong Kong stock [1][3]. Core Insights - The initial efficacy and safety data for ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC) in the 2L+ ES-SCLC indication are excellent, significantly boosting investor confidence in the company's R&D pipeline [1]. - ZL-1310 demonstrated a 74% overall response rate (ORR) in the global Phase 1 trial, with a 100% ORR in patients with brain metastases [1]. - The company plans to accelerate the development of ZL-1310 for 2L+ ES-SCLC and aims to communicate with the FDA regarding the accelerated approval pathway [1]. Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2023 is $267 million, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [2][9]. - The company is expected to incur a net loss of $335 million in 2023, improving to a loss of $137 million by 2025 [2][9]. - The revenue is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching $995 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.3% from 2023 to 2026 [2][9]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is $28.9, with a potential upside of 107% to the target price of $60 [3][5]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of $13.4 to $31.2, indicating volatility and potential for growth [3][5]. Clinical Data Comparison - ZL-1310's ORR of 74% is higher than that of competitors like YL201 (68% ORR) and ZG006 (67% ORR), showcasing its competitive edge in the market [1][8]. - The safety profile of ZL-1310 is superior, with lower rates of ≥3 grade treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) compared to YL201 [1][8].

新东方-S（09901.HK） 优于大市 教育主业经营符合预期，运营效率持续提升 FY2025Q1 教育收入同增 34%。符合预期。FY2025Q1，净营收 14.35 亿美元， 同比+30.5%，若剔除东方甄选影响，实现净营收 12.78 亿美元，同比+33.5%， 符合 FY2024Q4 季报收入指引（31-34%）；Non-GAAP 经营利润 3.00 亿美元， 同比+22.6%，Non-GAAP 经营利润率 20.9%，同比-1.9pct，剔除东方甄选影 响经营利润率为 24%，同比+2.2pct，系收入扩张带来规模效应体现；Non-GAAP 归母净利润 2.65 亿美元，同比+39.85%，优于彭博一致预期（+36.08%）。 教育新业务增长强劲，海外&高中增速稳健。FY2025Q1，留学考培/咨询业务 分别同比+18.8%/20.7%，延续上季度（+18%）的稳健表现；国内大学生培训 业务收入同增约 30%，增速环比 F24Q4（+16%）提速明显；高中培训收入同 比增约 21.0%，环比 24Q4（+27%）有所降速，预计系部分高端产品需求有所 承压所致；教育新业务收入同增 49.8%延续强劲增 ...

特步国际（01368.HK） 服装家纺 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 24 日 主品牌 10 月流水提速，索康尼延续高增 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Xinda Biopharma (01801.HK), marking its first coverage [2][6]. Core Insights - Xinda Biopharma has established itself as a comprehensive biopharma entity with significant commercialization achievements. The company is expected to reach a profitability inflection point as new products continue to receive approvals [3][4]. - The company has a robust pipeline in oncology, particularly focusing on IO+ADC strategies, with promising data emerging from its self-developed products [3][4]. - In non-oncology areas, the company is advancing treatments for obesity and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), with major products expected to be approved within 1-2 years, providing new growth momentum [3][4]. - Overall, the company is viewed as undervalued in the market, with strong growth potential as a leading innovative drug company [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in August 2011, Xinda Biopharma has become a significant player in the biopharma sector, with 11 commercialized products and several others in various stages of clinical development [18][19]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with major international firms, enhancing its research and development capabilities [18][19]. Oncology Pipeline - The company has a deep focus on the oncology pipeline, with its PD-1 monoclonal antibody, Sintilimab, achieving nearly 2.8 billion yuan in sales in 2023, leading the domestic market [3][4]. - The PD-1/IL-2 dual antibody, IBI363, shows significant efficacy in PD-1 resistant cancer patients, positioning it as a potential leader in second-generation IO therapies [3][4]. - Multiple ADCs are in clinical stages, including IBI343 targeting CLDN18.2, which is in Phase III trials [3][4]. Cardiovascular and Metabolic Pipeline - The GLP-1 dual-target product, Masitide, is progressing well, with NDAs submitted for obesity and T2DM treatments, indicating a substantial market opportunity [3][4]. - The company has also received approval for its PCSK9 monoclonal antibody, marking a significant milestone in treating high cholesterol [3][4]. Autoimmune and Ophthalmology Pipeline - The company is expanding its autoimmune and ophthalmology product lines, with several innovative drugs entering clinical trials [3][4]. - Notable products include IBI302 for age-related macular degeneration and IBI112 for plaque psoriasis, both showing promising clinical data [3][4]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 80.19 billion, 108.53 billion, and 139.04 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.22%, 35.34%, and 28.11% respectively [4][6]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, with a reasonable equity value estimated at 966.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a target stock price of 64.91 HKD [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.95 HKD based on a 19x valuation for 2024 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for Q3 2024, with overall sales for the Li Ning brand experiencing a mid-single-digit percentage decrease compared to the previous half-year. Offline channels saw a high single-digit decline, while e-commerce channels achieved mid-single-digit growth [1]. - As of September 30, 2024, the number of sales points in China reached 6,281, a net increase of 42 from the previous quarter. This includes a net decrease of 14 in retail and a net increase of 55 in wholesale [1]. - The establishment of a joint venture with Sequoia to expand into international markets is noted, with the company investing 5.8 million HKD for a 29% stake. The financial impact of this venture is expected to be limited, with a payment of 58 million HKD in Q4 [1]. - Despite the pressure on retail revenue, the company is expected to manage inventory effectively and maintain a low double-digit net profit margin for the year, supported by strict cost control [1]. Financial Forecast and Ratios - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.20, 1.37, and 1.54 CNY, down from previous estimates of 1.24, 1.47, and 1.69 CNY [2][7]. - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 25,803 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.4%, followed by 7.6% and 8.6% in subsequent years [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.2% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to decrease from 11.5% to 11.0% [5].