证券研究报告·公司点评报告·汽车零部件 拓普集团（601689） 2024 年年报点评：业绩稳健向好，机器人打 开成长空间 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 19,701 | 26,600 | 32,879 | 40,774 | 48,929 | | 同比（%） | 23.18 | 35.02 | 23.60 | 24.01 | 20.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,151 | 3,001 | 3,554 | 4,460 | 5,652 | | 同比（%） | 26.49 | 39.52 | 18.46 | 25.47 | 26.72 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.24 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 2.57 | 3.25 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.85 | 29.99 | 25.32 | 20.18 | 15.93 | [Table_Tag] [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's core business is operating steadily, focusing on refined management practices [1] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 254.13 million yuan, narrowing by 31.01% [7] - The company is in a growth phase, with expectations for revenue to reach 4.823 billion yuan in 2025 and 5.533 billion yuan in 2026 [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.815 billion yuan, 4.823 billion yuan, 5.533 billion yuan, and 6.147 billion yuan respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to improve from a loss of 254.13 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 49.41 million yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.11 yuan in 2024 to 0.02 yuan in 2027 [1] Business Operations Summary - The company reported a total of 2.5727 million outpatient and emergency service visits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.70%, and 205,700 inpatient service visits, an increase of 10.73% [7] - The Xi'an High-tech Hospital achieved revenue of 1.525 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 85 million yuan, reflecting a net profit margin of 5.6% [7] - The company is focusing on developing specialized services such as integrated Chinese and Western medicine, high-end health management, and smart traditional Chinese medicine [7] Valuation and Future Outlook - The company's revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted down to 4.823 billion yuan and 5.533 billion yuan respectively, with a projected market value corresponding to price-to-sales (PS) ratios of 2.4 and 2.1 times [7] - The company is expected to gradually improve its valuation as its core hospital bed capacity increases [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue and profit growth, driven by strong demand for 400G and 800G optical modules, with 2024 revenue reaching 23.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.64%, and a net profit of 5.171 billion yuan, up 137.93% [1][6] - The gross margin has been improving, reaching 33.81% in 2024 and 36.70% in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of high-end products and cost reductions [6][7] - The company is expected to see significant growth in 800G product shipments in 2025, with 1.6T products gradually ramping up in Q2 and Q3 [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.862 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.171 billion yuan, with Q1 2025 revenue at 6.674 billion yuan and net profit at 1.583 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 37.82% [1][6] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 3.165 billion yuan, a 66.81% increase year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 2.164 billion yuan, up 232.74% [6][7] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.277 billion yuan, 10.134 billion yuan, and 11.814 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.1, 9.1, and 7.8 [6][7] Market Outlook - The domestic market is expected to see increased orders and revenue in 2025, with significant growth in 400G optical module demand and accelerated adoption of 800G modules by customers [2][6] - The overseas market also showed strong performance, with 2024 overseas revenue reaching 20.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.32% [2][6] - Supply-side constraints in optical chips are anticipated to ease as overseas manufacturers expand capacity, and the company plans to increase its silicon photonic module production in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has seen a recovery in the market due to consumer stimulus policies, with increased demand driven by low initial customer inventory and the resumption of foreign sales [6] - The company reported a revenue of 1.343 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.01% to 134 million yuan [5][6] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market for MCU products and has successfully introduced new clients in Europe and Japan [6][7] - The company has increased its R&D investment to 300 million yuan, accounting for 22.35% of its revenue, with a focus on smart home appliance chips and automotive electronics [7] Financial Summary - The company achieved a total chip sales volume of 885 million units in 2024, a nearly 9% increase year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.60%, a decrease of 2.01% compared to the previous year, primarily due to intense market competition affecting pricing [6] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.551 billion, 1.824 billion, and 2.004 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 150 million, 204 million, and 250 million yuan [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading connector system manufacturer in China, focusing on electric vehicle electrification, intelligence, and battery-related fields, showcasing innovative technologies and products at the Shanghai International Auto Show [2]. - Revenue from new energy connectors has significantly increased, accounting for 90.28% of total revenue in 2024, up from 87.92% in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 59.46% [3]. - The company has established a strong customer base, including major global clients such as BYD, Tesla, and NIO, positioning itself for continued growth as the penetration of new energy vehicles increases [3]. - The company is expanding into emerging fields such as AI servers, humanoid robots, and medical applications, supported by five production bases in China and abroad, which is expected to drive long-term growth [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2.415 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 55.29%, with a net profit of 175 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 28.11% [4][9]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 211 million RMB, 340 million RMB, and 396 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 22, and 19 [4][9]. Financial Metrics - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.106 RMB in 2024 to 2.501 RMB in 2027 [9]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.36% in 2024 to 14.29% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 9.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of +15.09% and -10.38% respectively. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, up 22.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.52 billion yuan, up 30.45% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [2] - The demand for PCBs is significantly driven by AI, with a notable increase in sales volume expected in 2024. However, delayed shipments are anticipated to pressure Q4 performance [3] - The global AI wave presents unprecedented opportunities for the PCB industry, with a focus on high-end products and expansion in Southeast Asia. The company aims to capture these opportunities, with revenue from Southeast Asia expected to rise to nearly 20% in 2024 [4] - In the advanced packaging sector, the company is focusing on LDI technology, which shows great potential in optimizing interconnect speeds for AI chips. The domestic market for ABF substrates is also expected to grow, with the company positioned to benefit from this trend [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 16.1 billion yuan, 19.7 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 3.33 billion yuan, 4.34 billion yuan, and 5.25 billion yuan for the same years. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 31, 24, and 19 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 9.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +15.09% and a decline of -10.38% respectively. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, up +22.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.52 billion yuan, up +30.45% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [2] - The demand for PCBs is significantly driven by AI, with a forecasted revenue of 7.81 billion yuan from PCB sales in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.55%. However, delayed shipments are expected to pressure Q4 2024 performance [3][4] - The company is capitalizing on the AI wave and the expansion of production capacity in Southeast Asia, with an expected revenue contribution from this region reaching nearly 20% in 2024 [4] - In the advanced packaging sector, the LDI technology shows great potential, particularly in optimizing interconnect speeds for AI chips. The company is also focusing on domestic substitution in the IC substrate market, with a current domestic capacity share of only 4% [5] Financial Projections - The company anticipates revenues of 16.1 billion yuan, 19.7 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 3.33 billion yuan, 4.34 billion yuan, and 5.25 billion yuan for the same years. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 31, 24, and 19 times [5]

事件：2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 2.13 亿元，同比+33.41%，归母净利润 0.33 亿元，同比+47.71%。 内销国补带动的电器销售较强，收入显著增长 分业务看，25Q1 北鼎自有品牌/ODM 代工收入同比分别为+46.5%/-8.66%； 自有品牌中内外销收入同比分别为+51.4%/+0.63%。国内市场方面，政府通 过以旧换新补贴政策在品类、地区、渠道维度的范围拓展与持续深化，有 效激活居民消费意愿，加速释放需求潜能；外销方面，国际贸易格局中关 税壁垒与反制措施的动态博弈持续发酵，全球产业链重构趋势与贸易规则 碎片化趋势交织，企业跨境贸易业务的复杂性与风险敞口显著扩大。 公司推广力度加大，内部降本增效显成效 2025Q1 公司毛利率为 49.87%，同比+0.19pct，净利率为 15.7%，同比 +1.52pct。毛利率同比基本持平，净利率显著改善。2025Q1 公司季度销售、 管理、研发、财务费用率分别为 26.02%、6.41%、4.12%、-0.63%，同比+2.43、 -3.82、-1.94、+0.36pct。销售费用率同比显著提升，主要由于公司推广力 度加大及业务收入结构变动导致 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 17.65 billion in 2024, a decrease of 33.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 9.7% to 0.835 billion [1]. - The gross profit margin improved significantly, contributing to a notable increase in profitability despite revenue pressure [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.43 billion in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 51%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.72% [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 0.965 billion, 1.115 billion, and 1.279 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.4, 8.1, and 7.1 [1]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.52 billion, down 28.21% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.78% to 0.232 billion [1]. - The engineering contracting business saw a gross margin of 13.61%, up 6.06 percentage points year-on-year, which significantly enhanced overall profitability [2]. - The overall gross margin for the year improved by 5.71 percentage points to 14.5% [2]. Order Growth and Internationalization - The company signed new orders worth 19.67 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with international orders growing significantly [3]. - The company has made substantial progress in international projects, particularly in mining and steel production, with several key projects successfully launched [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s cash flow from operations (CFO) for 2024 was 1.5 billion, an increase of 1.36 billion year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow performance [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 4.95%, up 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q1 2025 net profit margin was 6.82%, up 2.25 percentage points [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 18.49 billion, with a growth rate of 4.8% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.58, with a P/E ratio of 10.87 [5]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 9.08 billion [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 107.24 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 7.21 billion yuan, down 19.92% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated at 6.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.69% year-on-year [2][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is expected to decline due to a slowdown in domestic project advancement, with the engineering construction segment generating 92.95 billion yuan, down 10.53% year-on-year. The highway investment and operation business is projected to earn 2.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.96% year-on-year. The total number of newly awarded projects is 524, amounting to approximately 138.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% decline year-on-year [13] - The overall gross margin for the company is anticipated to be 15.68%, down 2.47 percentage points year-on-year, with the engineering construction gross margin decreasing by 2.41 percentage points and the highway investment operation margin declining by 2.85 percentage points. However, margins in mining, new materials, and clean energy sectors have improved [13] - The company recorded a net cash inflow from operating activities of 3.43 billion yuan, with a cash collection ratio of 90.07%, an increase of 6.44 percentage points year-on-year. The total dividend payout for 2024 is approximately 360 million yuan, representing about 50% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [13] Future Outlook - The demand for infrastructure in Sichuan province is robust, with the company expected to see stable growth in performance. In June 2024, Sichuan province announced 36 highway projects with a total investment of approximately 840 billion yuan. The company has successfully secured several projects, totaling over 260 billion yuan in investment, which lays a solid foundation for future development [13] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to 60% from 2025 to 2027, with a projected dividend yield exceeding 6.5% if the company's performance surpasses 8 billion yuan in 2025 [13]