证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 02 日 软通动力（301236.SZ） 基本盘稳健运营，AI+国产化多点开花 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 并购整合导致公司 24 年利润承压，软件业务基本盘企稳向好趋势巩固。看好公 司软硬一体协同发展，紧抓 AI+国产化机遇实现多点开花。 ❑ 风险提示：信创等政策扶持力度不达预期；云计算、AI 产业技术发展低于预 期；行业竞争加剧；技术创新不及预期 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 17581 | 31316 | 32906 | 34387 | 35762 | | 同比增长 | -8% | 78% | 5% | 4% | 4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 485 | 123 | 387 | 469 | 552 | | 同比增长 | -51% | -75% | 214% | 21% | 18% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 534 | 180 | 370 | 452 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in both revenue and net profit, with a 2024 total revenue of 3.338 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 521 million yuan, up 135% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 824 million yuan, up 16% year-on-year, and net profit was 141 million yuan, up 73% year-on-year. The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in revenue and over 100% growth in net profit for 2025 [3][4] - The company is positioned as a key player in the import substitution of innovative materials, with an optimistic long-term outlook. Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 3.973 billion yuan in 2025, 4.859 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.729 billion yuan in 2027, alongside net profits of 715 million yuan, 834 million yuan, and 1.004 billion yuan respectively [3][4] Financial Summary - In 2024, the semiconductor segment generated revenue of 1.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.4%. The CMP polishing pad segment alone achieved revenue of 716 million yuan in 2024, up 71.51% year-on-year, and 220 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 63.14% year-on-year. The company continues to solidify its leading position in the domestic market for CMP polishing pads [4] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 46.88%, an increase of 9.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.14%, up 8.4 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 48.82%, up 4.56 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 20.44%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained at "Buy" [1][6][16] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is in line with expectations, achieving a revenue of 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached 16.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, with a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [6] - The company has a strong dividend payout ratio of 60.4% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 3.2% for 2025 [6] - Future profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 13.45 billion yuan, 14.68 billion yuan, and 15.91 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 9.2%, and 8.3% respectively [6] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from high-end and low-end liquor segments in 2024 was 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 9.4% [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue from Fenjiu and other liquor categories was 16.21 billion yuan and 270 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a decline of 15.5% respectively [7] - The company is expected to see further growth in mid-tier products, with a significant focus on controlling the production of lower-tier products [7] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Sales cash receipts for 2024 amounted to 36.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, while Q1 2025 saw receipts of 13.79 billion yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year due to the timing of the Spring Festival [8] - As of the end of Q1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.8 billion yuan, indicating a historically high level of recognition and positive cash flow from channels [8] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved by 1.34 percentage points to 78.8%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 40.28% due to increased sales expenses [9] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) forecast, with expected values of 27.6%, 24.2%, and 21.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][12]

食品饮料/非白酒 百润股份（002568.SZ） 预调酒目标企稳增长，威士忌业务推进顺利 相关研究报告 《预调酒销售持续承压，期待业绩逐 步改善 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.11.3 《预调酒销售短期承压，下半年新品 值 得 期 待 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.1 《预调酒业务行稳致远，威士忌新品 前 景 可 期 — 公 司 首 次 覆 盖 报 告 》 -2024.7.3 ——公司信息更新报告 | 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） | | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790521060002 | 证书编号：S0790524010001 | |  | 业绩表现符合预期，期待威士忌放量增长，维持"增持"评级 | | | 百润股份 2024 | 年营收 30.5 亿元，同比-6.6%，归母净利润 | 7.2 亿元，同比- ...

| 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 128.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 178.76/106.33 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,995.63 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,995.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 38.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 38.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 32.17 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究报告 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 《业绩稳健增长，彰显品牌韧性—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 《业绩稳健，核心矛盾明显改善—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.5.3 开局状态良好，渠道酝酿积极变化 ——公司信息更新报告 | 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） 张恒玮（分析师） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec. ...

电子/电子化学品Ⅱ 鼎龙股份（300054.SZ） 收入净利双双高增，平台化布局成长可期 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 29.80 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 32.40/18.31 | | 总市值(亿元) | 279.61 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 217.00 | | 总股本(亿股) | 9.38 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.28 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 161.91 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 鼎龙股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q3 业绩持续高增长，新材料平 台公司成型—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.9 《2024H1 业绩同比高增，半导体材料 平台公司成型—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.20 《抛光液加速验证与放量，业绩新增 长极逐步成型—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.7.9 陈蓉芳（分析师） 陈瑜熙（分析师） chenrongf ...

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 128.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 178.76/106.33 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,995.63 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,995.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 38.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 38.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 32.17 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究报告 《业绩稳健增长，彰显品牌韧性—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 《业绩稳健，核心矛盾明显改善—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.5.3 开局状态良好，渠道酝酿积极变化 ——公司信息更新报告 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

食品饮料/非白酒 百润股份（002568.SZ） 预调酒目标企稳增长，威士忌业务推进顺利 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 26.10 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 31.70/15.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 273.89 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 187.39 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.49 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.18 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 82.73 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 百润股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《预调酒销售持续承压，期待业绩逐 步改善 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.11.3 《预调酒销售短期承压，下半年新品 值 得 期 待 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.1 《预调酒业务行稳致远，威士忌新品 前 景 可 期 — 公 司 首 次 覆 盖 报 告 》 -2024.7. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][8][20] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 82.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, and a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the high demand for gold and jewelry in Beijing, where the company has a significant presence [1] - The company benefits from a high proportion of revenue from precious metal investment products, which saw a strong demand in Q1 2025 due to rising gold prices [1] - The company plans to expand its brand influence through an omnichannel strategy, combining online and offline sales [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 202 billion yuan, a 22.2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.20 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 77.9% [2] - The revenue from precious metal investment products is expected to grow by 45.3% in 2024, while gold jewelry sales are projected to decline by 11.1% [3] - The company opened 20 new direct stores in 2024, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [3] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 7.9 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 16.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.87 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6][14] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 8.9%, with a net margin of 3.6% [3][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.297 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 92.52 million yuan, a decrease of 46.86% year-on-year [8] - The company focuses on Southeast Asia and the Middle East, leveraging 20 years of experience to enhance customer loyalty and pursue high-quality orders, achieving 72 new projects worth 2.05 billion yuan in 2024, a 93% increase year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to benefit from its innovative technology and comprehensive geotechnical engineering services, with a second growth curve driven by perovskite materials [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 54.24% [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 252.11 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year's decline [8] - The company's comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 29.6%, down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 6.7%, down 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was -83 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 217 million yuan year-on-year [8] - The asset-liability ratio at the end of 2024 was 22.4%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [8]