证券研究报告 中国铝业 (2600 HK/601600 CH) 港股通 铝价维持高位或支撑公司业绩稳定 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 25 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 基本金属及加工 | 中国铝业发布一季报，2025 年 Q1 实现营收 557.84 亿元（yoy+13.95%、 qoq-11.86%），归母净利 35.38 亿元（yoy+58.78%、qoq+4.56%）。铝价维 持高位，对公司利润形成一定支撑，看好公司业绩穿越周期保持稳定，我们 维持"买入"评级。 公司一季度盈利能力受氧化铝价格下跌有所拖累 公司 25Q1 毛利率为 15.86%，同比+0.52pct，环比-1.33pct，根据 SMM， 25Q1 电解铝现货均价为 2.04 万元/吨，同比上升 7.28%，环比下降 0.47%， 但氧化铝 25Q1 均价为 3833 元/吨，同比上涨 15.16%，环比下降 28.09%， 由于公司有部分氧化铝外售，价格下跌对公司业绩形成一定拖累。费用方面， 一季度公司合计期间费用 21.52 亿元，同比下降 ...

证券研究报告 北方导航 (600435 CH) 25Q1 业绩高增长，下游需求全面复苏 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 25 日│中国内地 | 其他军工 | 北方导航发布 24 年报和 25 年一季报，2024 年实现营收 27.48 亿元 （yoy-22.91%），归母净利 5903.74 万元（yoy-69.29%），低于我们此前 1.79 亿元归母净利的预期，主要原因是部分产品受技术状态变更、订货合同延迟 签订等因素影响，已确定的订单未能在当期确认收入，导致较上年同比下降。 25Q1 公司产品交付和收入确认节奏有所恢复，交付量较上年有明显提升， 实现营业收入 3.52 亿元（yoy+347.47%）；归母净利-1676 万元，上年同期 为-4976 万元，亏损有所收窄。考虑到"十四五"国防建设任务需要按期完 成，我们预计公司 25 年将实现较快增长，维持"买入"评级。 24 年多因素导致业绩下滑，25Q1 已逐步恢复正常 2024 年行业因素导致公司业绩有所下滑，核心军民两用产品实现收入 26.90 亿元，同比下滑 22.31%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 22.80 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 12.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 40% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.57 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 34% [1]. - The company is facing some pressure on profitability due to high ethane costs impacting the C2 segment, while the C3 segment has shown some recovery with a 7% increase in the propylene-propane price spread [2]. - The company is advancing its high-end new materials project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and officially start production in early 2026, indicating potential for long-term growth [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of RMB 6.4 billion, RMB 8.3 billion, and RMB 9.2 billion respectively, which is a downward revision of 13%, 4%, and 4% from previous estimates [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.90, RMB 2.47, and RMB 2.74 respectively [4]. - The target price is based on a 12x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous 11x PE [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 68.00 CNY, indicating a strong potential for returns over the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, achieving total revenue of 550 million CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.50%, and a net profit of approximately 93.59 million CNY, up 11.09% from the previous year [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the renewable energy power forecasting sector, with a strong demand for high-precision forecasting services and intelligent grid control products due to increasing integration of renewable energy sources [13]. - The company is expanding its market presence internationally, with overseas revenue reaching 8.90 million CNY, a significant increase of 162.38% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 550 million CNY, with various product lines contributing to this growth, including: - Revenue from renewable energy power forecasting products was 309 million CNY, up 15.55% [3]. - Revenue from intelligent control products for renewable energy grid integration was 124 million CNY, an increase of 28.01% [3]. - The gross margin for power forecasting products remained stable at 69.34% [3]. - The company forecasts revenues of 738 million CNY, 905 million CNY, and 1.22 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 136 million CNY, 183 million CNY, and 259 million CNY for the same years [15][13]. Market Trends - The demand for distributed energy systems is expected to grow due to new regulatory requirements emphasizing the "four capabilities" of distributed photovoltaic power generation: observable, measurable, adjustable, and controllable [4]. - The ongoing reforms in the electricity market are anticipated to drive the company's performance, as new policies will enhance the market demand for electricity trading-related products [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively exploring the integration of artificial intelligence in electricity trading, aiming to provide advanced market data predictions and asset profitability services for renewable energy stations [12]. - The company is expanding its business boundaries by actively engaging in emerging sectors such as electricity market trading and virtual power plants, which are expected to further enhance growth opportunities [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5][17]. Core Views - The company achieved excellent performance in 2024, with revenue of 14.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.12%. Domestic and international revenues grew by 29.39% and 26.08%, respectively, with overseas exports accounting for 57.41% of main business revenue [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.10 billion yuan, up 40.72% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1]. - The company is transitioning towards high-tech, high-quality, and high-value-added products, significantly shortening the average development cycle for new products [2]. - The acquisition of Shanzhong Construction Machinery has strengthened the company's business integrity and exceeded performance commitments, contributing positively to future earnings [2][3]. - The chairman's proposal to repurchase shares reflects confidence in the company's long-term development and aims to stabilize and enhance company value [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 20.05% and a net profit margin of 7.77%, both showing year-on-year increases [1]. - The company’s operating income is projected to grow to 16.33 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 23.94% [9][11]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 18.50 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.09% [11][12]. Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its product line with new high-end products, including large bulldozers and mining excavators, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2]. - The integration of resources within the Shandong Heavy Industry Group has provided significant competitive advantages through capital, technology, and talent support [3]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the machinery and engineering equipment industry, with a strong focus on export markets and a diversified revenue structure [5][17].

通信/通信服务 普天科技（002544.SZ） 业绩短期扰动，卫星+低空前景光明 2025 年 04 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 20.21 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 26.25/15.60 | | 总市值(亿元) | 137.54 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 137.25 | | 总股本(亿股) | 6.81 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 6.79 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 89.84 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 普天科技 沪深300 相关研究报告 《卫星互联网和低空通信前景光明— 公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.29 《业绩短期波动，前瞻布局卫星和低 空蓝海 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.4.26 陈宝健（分析师） chenbaojian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520080001 中国电科通信板块上市平台，维持"买入"评级 考虑到公司新兴业务战略 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][15] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic AI sector, and due to increased R&D investments, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards. The expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 709 million, 920 million, and 1,184 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31, 0.40, and 0.51. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 147.3, 113.6, and 88.3 for the respective years [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.658 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.74%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -193 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.68% [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 23.343 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million, a decrease of 14.78%. The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 613.4% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment in AI, amounting to 740 million, which has led to a rise in R&D expenses by 410 million [6] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.868 billion, 36.334 billion, and 45.388 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 25.9%, and 24.9% [8][11] Key Developments - The company has upgraded its Starfire X1 model, which now competes with leading models from OpenAI and DeepMind in reasoning, text generation, and language understanding tasks. The commercialization of the Starfire model has accelerated, with significant revenue growth in various sectors [7]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·软件开发 同花顺（300033） 2025 年一季报点评：整体业绩稳健，成本控 制较强 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,564 | 4,187 | 5,112 | 6,080 | 7,504 | | 同比（%） | 0.14% | 17.47% | 22.11% | 18.93% | 23.42% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,402 | 1,823 | 2,391 | 3,070 | 3,866 | | 同比（%） | -17.07% | 30.00% | 31.13% | 28.41% | 25.92% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.61 | 3.39 | 4.45 | 5.71 | 7.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 99.95 | 76.88 | 58.63 | 45.66 | 36.26 | [Table_Summary] ...

无锡银行披露 2025 年一季报，25Q1 营业收入、PPOP、归母利润同比增速分 别为3.53%、5.48%、3.13%，增速分别较24A变动-0.62pct、-0.89pct、+0.78pct， 营收增速下行，归母净利润增速回升。累计业绩驱动上，规模、成本收入比下 降形成正贡献，息差收窄、中收负增长、其他非息、拨备计提和有效税率上升 形成负贡献。 核心观点： 亮点：（1）贷款增速回升，存款增长边际修复。资产端，25Q1 末公司总生息 资产同比增长 7.30%，增速较 24 年末有所回落，但贷款同比增长 10.68%，增 速环比提升 1.19pct。新增信贷结构依旧偏弱，个人贷款规模缩量，对公贷款稳 健增长，票据贴现同比多增。另外，25Q1 投资类资产增长偏弱，尤其 AC 规模 缩表 21 亿元，预计 25Q1 债市波动下，公司交易户浮亏压力较大，加大了 AC 类资产的浮盈兑现力度。负债端，25Q1 存款单季度增长 108 亿元，环比同比均 多增，存款增长明显修复，主要是个人存款定期存款增长较好。（2）测算净息 差稳定。根据我们测算，公司 25Q1 净息差 1.42%，环比 24Q4 持平，25Q1 净 利 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, down 16% year-on-year, and a net profit of 168 million yuan, down 22% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery with a revenue increase of 19% year-on-year to 351 million yuan and a net profit increase of 23% year-on-year to 50 million yuan [1][4] - The company is focusing on the automation sector and expects its heat pump business to recover. The revenue from the new energy vehicle thermal management business grew significantly by 47.23% year-on-year [4] - The company is investing in robotics and industrial automation, aiming for technological innovation and market expansion, which may create new growth points [4] - There are signs of recovery in the European heat pump export market, which is expected to positively impact the company's business and profits [4] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to increase from 1.297 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.737 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 33.9% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 168 million yuan in 2024 to 260 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 54.6% [3] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 25% for the coming years [3] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 40.53 in 2024 to 26.22 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation [3] - The estimated net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 260 million yuan, 350 million yuan, and 409 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 34.8%, and 16.8% [4]