更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 6 May 2025 | 8:54AM CST Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclos ...

May 9, 2025 04:58 AM GMT SMIC | Asia Pacific Weak 2Q25 guidance; EW 2Q25 guidance missed: SMIC guided 2Q25 revenue to be down by 4-6% Q/Q and GM of 18-20% (down 2.5-4.5ppts Q/Q), due to: 1) blended ASP decline given lower yield caused by one-time maintenance incident and new equipment's underperformance; 2) rising equipment depreciation. Management believes new equipment debugging will take time and blended ASP pressure may persist until Q3. Here are some key takeaways from SMIC's 1Q25 analyst meeting: Keep ...

9 May 2025 | 9:51AM HKT SMIC (0981.HK): 1Q GM beat at 22.5%; UT rate improving with capacity in continuous expansion 1Q25 Revenue of US$2.2bn (+28% YoY/ +2% QoQ) was largely in-line with GSe/ Bloomberg consensus. 1Q25 GM of 22.5% was stronger than management's guidance and our / street's expectations, which we attribute to the increase of UT rate (89.6% in 1Q25, vs. 85.5% in 4Q24). Capex came in at US$1.4bn in 1Q25, vs. US$1.7bn in 4Q24. We expect Chinese foundries including SMIC to continue to invest meani ...

May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China – Film | Asia Pacific Reducing 2025 Industry Outlook | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT | | Idea | | China – Film Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Rebecca Xu | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Reducing 2025 Industry | Rebecca.Xu@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7359 | | | Gary Yu | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Outlook | Gary.Yu@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-6918 | | | Greater China Media | | Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line | | | | Company | Ticker | Ra ...

7 May 2025 | 3:35PM CST China Industrial Tech 1Q25 results largely in-line; prefer domestic China (Buy Nari, on CL) vs. tariff-hit stocks; still like AI beneficiaries 1Q25 sector results were overall largely in-line with 14/13/5 companies delivering earnings miss/in-line/beat (median revenue/gross profit/operating profit/net profit were -0%/-4%/-12%/-6% vs. GSe and GPM/OPM/NPM at -0.9pp/-1.7pp/-0.5pp vs. GSe). We lower our estimates primarily on expectations of tariff impact ahead, cut our sector average 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report has lowered the average 2025 net profit growth forecast for covered banks to -5%, reflecting a decrease of 1 percentage point from previous estimates [15]. Core Insights - Negative net profit growth in 1Q25 for large SOE banks and CMB has led to stock price declines, prompting a reassessment of profit forecasts and target prices [1]. - Despite negative net profit growth, banks may still attract long-term funds due to limited downside on dividend yields compared to government bond yields [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of net profit growth in 1Q25, as investors have heightened expectations for shareholder returns following two years of excess returns [3][4]. - The report indicates that banks are facing challenges in achieving positive net profit growth in 2025 due to lower-than-expected net interest income (NII) and loan growth [11][15]. Summary by Sections Net Profit Growth - The average net profit growth forecast for covered banks is now -5% for 2025, with small banks BONB and BONJ expected to achieve 7% growth [15]. - Most banks are still releasing provisions, but not sufficiently to drive positive profit growth, and the potential for further provision releases is limited [5][15]. Dividend Payout Ratios - Banks may need to increase their dividend payout ratios to maintain stable dividends per share (DPS) amidst negative EPS growth [22][30]. - The report suggests that banks have the capacity to increase dividends, but their willingness remains uncertain [22][26]. Loan Growth and NIM - Loan growth for major banks is projected to be lower than previously expected, with NIM also declining more than anticipated [11][13]. - The report notes that while credit growth is expected to accelerate, overall loan demand remains weak due to external factors such as tariffs [13][40]. Fee Income and Consumer Finance - Some banks have reported better-than-expected growth in fee income, driven by bancassurance and fund sales [33]. - A potential recovery in consumer finance is anticipated in the second half of 2025, influenced by low base effects and banks seeking new business opportunities [31][34]. Stock Selection and Recommendations - Among large and medium-sized banks, CMB is viewed as having the least EPS dilution and the lowest required increase in dividend payout ratio, making it more capable of maintaining stable DPS [41]. - BONB is favored for its high growth potential relative to larger banks, while BONJ is rated Neutral due to ongoing convertible bond conversion processes [41].

6 May 2025 | 1:38PM HKT China Semis: Espressif (688018.SS): RSIC-V Wi-Fi SoC local player; Wi-Fi 7 and AI edge chipsets in expansion We talked to Espressif (688018.SS, Not Covered) management recently. Espressif is a local WiFi chipset firm with connectivity solutions for AIoT, energy, industrial clients based on RISC-V architecture. It is also expanding into an integrated solution combining Bluetooth functions. Overall, management is positive on 2025 growth, with the company's product expansion to diversif ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the wealth management market, with an expected growth rate of approximately 8% for 2025, consistent with 2024 [1][9]. Core Insights - The wealth management market has shown signs of recovery in Q2, with a year-to-date growth rate nearing 5%, although this is weaker compared to previous years. Short-term indicators are trending towards normalization [1][2]. - Fixed-income products dominate the market, accounting for 75% of the total, with a total value of approximately 21.7 trillion. Short-term fixed-income products have seen significant growth, now representing 40.2% of the total [1][5]. - Regulatory scrutiny on valuation smoothing mechanisms is increasing, with expectations for compliance and market-based valuation systems to be established by the end of 2025 [1][7]. - The concentration of the wealth management market is rising, with the top 15 institutions holding 88% of the market share, reflecting a trend towards dominance by a few key players [3][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall performance of the wealth management market in 2024 is expected to show a trend of lower growth initially, followed by recovery in Q2 due to improved liquidity and a recovering bond market [2]. - The growth rate for state-owned banks' wealth management is projected at 16.6%, outpacing joint-stock banks, while regional banks are expected to achieve the highest growth rate of 19.6% [1][12]. Product Structure and Risk Management - The reliance on valuation smoothing mechanisms has helped stabilize product performance, with a recent improvement in net asset values following a peak in March [4][6]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards short-term fixed-income products, which are becoming more prevalent, while the sales of structured products are declining [5][10]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies are emphasizing the need for fair and market-based valuation practices, with a focus on reducing risks associated with shadow banking [7][8]. - The anticipated regulatory changes are expected to enhance transparency and accountability in the wealth management sector [6][8]. Client Preferences and Trends - There is a notable preference among investors for low-volatility, stable products, with a significant increase in the popularity of wealth management products compared to traditional savings [27][29]. - High-value clients are growing at a faster rate than retail clients, indicating a shift in focus towards wealthier segments [29][30]. Future Outlook - The wealth management sector is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on enhancing digital capabilities and personalized advisory services to meet client needs [35][36]. - The overall trend indicates a gradual recovery in the wealth management market, driven by regulatory improvements and a more favorable economic environment [9][26].

6 May 2025 | 1:27AM HKT Cambricon (688256.SS): 2025 private placement on AI chips and Software platform; R&D commitment to support long term growth; Buy Cambricon announced a 2025 private placement on May 1 (link), aiming to issue within 21m shares, or no more than 5% of current shares in exchange of no more than Rmb4,980m (US$685m) cash, to develop: (1) AI chips for generative AI, 58% of the funding, (2) Software for generative AI, 32% of the funding, and (3) supplement working capital, 10% of the funding. ...

1Q25 takeaways: Fast product iterations with active R&D across the supply chain China Humanoid Robots 6 May 2025 | 7:05AM CST We follow closely comments from robot makers and supply chain names on their latest humanoid technology and products progress. From FY24/1Q25 earnings disclosures, an increasing amount of humanoid makers (EV/home appliance/industrial automation players/humanoid startups) and supply chain names have been putting strong emphasis on humanoid robot related R&D, reinforcing this future te ...