来源：中国能源网 投资要点 全球天然气市场供需格局重塑，预计2026年起全球LNG产能集中释放，而全球需求增速2025年或放 缓，2026年或略有回升，供需宽松背景下全球天然气价格有望持续下行周期。中石化经研院预测2026年 东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5美元/百万英热，TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国 受到下游需求和出口增长驱动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续 下行趋势，EIA预测2026年布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 华源证券近日发布燃气行业2026年度投资策略：中石化经研院预测2026年东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5 美元/百万英热，TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国受到下游需求和出口增长驱 动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续下行趋势，EIA预测2026年 布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 以下为研究报告摘要： 国际油气价格下行趋势有望促进城燃公司成本改善、需求释放。城燃公司气源结构主要来自三桶油、海 外长协及现货等，三桶油方面，低成本国产 ...

以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 华源证券近日发布燃气行业2026年度投资策略：中石化经研院预测2026年东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5 美元/百万英热，TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国受到下游需求和出口增长驱 动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续下行趋势，EIA预测2026年 布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 全球天然气市场供需格局重塑，预计2026年起全球LNG产能集中释放，而全球需求增速2025年或放 缓，2026年或略有回升，供需宽松背景下全球天然气价格有望持续下行周期。中石化经研院预测2026年 东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5美元/百万英热，TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国 受到下游需求和出口增长驱动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续 下行趋势，EIA预测2026年布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 国际油气价格下行趋势有望促进城燃公司成本改善、需求释放。城燃公司气源结构主要来自三桶油、海 外长协及现货等，三桶油方面，低成本国产气产量高增、占比提 ...

投资评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 燃气Ⅱ 2025年12月31日 阵痛转型步入尾声 业务重构开启新机 --燃气行业2026年度投资策略 证券分析师 姓名：秦雨茁 邮箱：qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点 2 n 全球天然气市场供需格局重塑，预计2026年起全球LNG产能集中释放，而全球需求增速2025年或放缓，2026年或略有回升， 供需宽松背景下全球天然气价格有望持续下行周期。中石化经研院预测2026年东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5美元/百万英热， TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国受到下游需求和出口增长驱动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美 元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续下行趋势，EIA预测2026年布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 n 国际油气价格下行趋势有望促进城燃公司成本改善、需求释放。城燃公司气源结构主要来自三桶油、海外长协及现货等，三 桶油方面，低成本国产气产量高增、占比提升，同时油价下行有望带动进口管道气成本改善，三桶油成本端全方位改善，面 临海气价格冲击下 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The new stock N Hengtong opened significantly higher, exceeding 1000%, trading at 350 yuan, and remained up over 966% at the time of reporting [4] - The A-share market saw all three major indices open higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3970.76, up 0.14%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13623.39, also up 0.14% [3] - Various sectors such as education, retail, real estate, semiconductors, automotive, consumer electronics, and AI glasses were active at the market opening, while sectors like shipbuilding, diversified finance, and precious metals saw declines [3] Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - The Zhipu AI concept sector experienced a surge, with Desheng Technology hitting the daily limit, and other companies like BlueFocus and Hand Information showing significant gains [7] - Zhipu AI updated its Hong Kong IPO details, confirming the issuance of 37.42 million new shares at a price of 116.20 HKD per share, with a potential total of 43.03 million shares if the over-allotment option is exercised [9] Group 3: Education Sector - The education sector was active, with Kevin Education hitting the daily limit and other companies like Zhonggong Education and Dou Shen Education also rising [10] - The Ministry of Education announced plans to further promote AI in education, with a policy document expected by 2026 to establish a future-oriented education system [10] Group 4: Robotics and Industrial Sector - The robotics sector showed repeated activity, with companies like Wanxiang Qianchao and Wuzhou Xinchun achieving multiple consecutive gains [11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a plan to accelerate the application of AI in key areas of the automotive industry, promoting the large-scale use of intelligent robots [11] Group 5: Mining and Materials Sector - Zijin Mining announced an expected net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 59% to 62%, attributed to increased production and rising sales prices of key minerals [11] - The long-term storage concept saw gains, with Hefei Urban Construction hitting the daily limit, and other companies in the sector also performing well [12]

Group 1 - The core proposal from the controlling shareholder, Foshan Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., suggests a cash dividend of RMB 2.5 per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025, based on the total share capital on the record date [1][2] - The proposal is based on the company's stable operating conditions and positive development outlook, aiming to share the business results with all shareholders [1][3] - The proposal requires approval from the company's board of directors and is not yet a finalized decision, indicating that its implementation is subject to further review [2][3] Group 2 - The company has completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Foshan Funeng Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Co., Ltd., following a phased approach where 49% was acquired first, and then 51% after certain conditions were met [7][9] - The acquisition process included necessary regulatory approvals, with the company obtaining the relevant registration documents from the local market supervision authority [8][9] - Following the completion of the acquisition, the company will fulfill its guarantee obligations as stipulated in previous agreements related to the acquired entity [12][16]

Macro Highlights - The implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China will take effect on January 1, 2026, aiming to improve tax incentives and clarify the standards for various VAT exemption projects [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notice regarding the large-scale equipment update and old-for-new consumption policy to be implemented in 2026, detailing the support scope, subsidy standards, and work requirements [1] Subsidy Policies - Consumers purchasing energy-efficient home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters will receive a subsidy of 15% of the product price, capped at 1,500 yuan per item [2] - For digital and smart products like smartphones and smartwatches, a similar subsidy of 15% applies, with a maximum of 500 yuan per item [2] - Consumers who scrap their personal vehicles and purchase new energy vehicles or fuel vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less will receive subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 yuan) and 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) respectively [2] Housing Tax Policy - Individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will be subject to a 3% VAT, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from VAT starting January 1, 2026 [2] Special Bonds and Consumption Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the old-for-new consumption policy, ensuring a smooth implementation and monitoring of subsidy funds [3] Automotive Industry Digital Transformation - A digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry aims to enhance smart manufacturing capabilities and digital levels of enterprises by 2027, with significant improvements in digital public service systems by 2030 [4] Company News - Zijin Mining expects a net profit increase of approximately 59%-62% for 2025 [5] - Tianpu Co., Ltd. has seen its stock price rise by 718.39% from August 22 to December 30, leading to a suspension for verification [5] - Daye Co., Ltd. has not yet achieved substantial revenue from its robotic tendon products, which are not in mass production [5] - Longjiang Power plans to distribute 2.1 yuan per 10 shares as a profit distribution for the first half of 2025 [5] - Zhejiang Rongtai intends to issue H-shares and list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, 佛燃能源, has successfully completed the acquisition of 100% equity in 佛山福能智造科技有限公司, enhancing its strategic position in the market [2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - 佛燃能源's subsidiary, 广东佛燃科技有限公司, signed a share transfer agreement with 福能东方, agreeing to acquire 100% of 福能智造's equity [2] - The acquisition is structured in two phases: the first phase involves acquiring 49% of 福能智造, while the second phase will occur after 福能智造 meets specific investment criteria, leading to the acquisition of the remaining 51% [2] - The company has completed the acquisition of 51% equity in 福能智造 and has obtained the necessary registration documents from the local market supervision authority [2]

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Fuan Energy (002911.SZ) proposes a cash dividend distribution of RMB 2.5 per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting confidence in the company's stable operations and positive growth prospects [1] Group 1: Dividend Proposal - The proposal is based on the recognition of Fuan Energy's stable operating conditions and good development outlook [1] - The cash dividend of RMB 2.5 per 10 shares is to be distributed to all shareholders, with no bonus shares or capital reserve conversion into share capital [1] - This proposal aligns with the company's articles of association and the "Shareholder Return Plan for the Next Three Years (2025-2027)" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fuan Energy (002911), has announced a profit distribution proposal for the first three quarters of 2025, suggesting a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, with no stock bonus or capital reserve conversion [1] Group 1 - The proposal is based on the total share capital as of the equity registration date for the profit distribution plan [1] - The cash dividend is inclusive of tax [1] - The proposal does not include any stock dividends or capital reserve transfers [1]

Core Viewpoint - 佛燃能源 has proposed a profit distribution plan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting its stable operational performance and positive growth outlook [1] Group 1: Profit Distribution Proposal - 佛燃能源's controlling shareholder, 佛控集团, has submitted a proposal for the profit distribution plan for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The proposal suggests a cash dividend of RMB 2.5 per 10 shares (tax included) to all shareholders, based on the total share capital on the record date for the profit distribution [1] - The plan does not include stock dividends or capital reserve transfers to increase share capital [1]