归根结底还是电力缺口。 作者丨 蒲凡 来源丨 投中网 什么样的公司能够股价暴涨？ 即使你不是一位老股民，应该也能本着基础经济学常识给出答案，比如实现了重大技术突破、迎来了重大政策利好、拿到了震 撼行业的大合同、创造了超预期的业绩表现，进而让投资者集体"虎躯一震"。前不久的甲骨文就是个好例子，由于在 9 月 10 日公布的财报显示公司的未完成订单（即剩余履约义务，可以简单粗暴理解为计划内的远期收入）总规模达到了史无前例的 4550 亿美元，甲骨文股价盘中最高暴涨 42% ，让创始人拉里・埃里森（ Larry Ellison ）短暂地当了一把全球首富。 但最近，美股却诞生了一个极端反例。 这家公司至今收入为 0 ，也没有任何实际的商业落地场景，甚至成立 10 多年来一直 处于 " 技术转化阶段 " ，每年需要也纯粹的研发端投入超过 1 亿美元，却能够在 2025 年 10 月 20 日之前的 12 个月里 暴涨 900% ，市值一度突破了 230 亿美元（约合人民币 1635 亿） 。 这家公司叫做 Oklo ，一家由 OpenAI 创始人萨姆 · 奥特曼参与孵化的公司，目的是推进模块化小型核反应堆的研发和建 设 ...

特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克与OpenAI联合创始人山姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）之间的口水战在周末继 续升级。这两位科技巨头再次互相指责对方行为不道德。 起因是上周奥尔特曼发帖称，由于特斯拉Roadster多年未交付，他决定取消预订并申请退款。奥尔特曼 分享了一封2018年7月的邮件截图，确认他支付了4.5万美元，用于预订下一代特斯拉Roadster。另一张 截图显示，他后来要求退回5万美元，但邮件被退回，因为负责预订的邮箱地址似乎已经失效。 随后，马斯克在周六发帖回应道："你偷走了一个非营利组织。"此言直指OpenAI近期转为营利结构一 事。这一举动引发了包括马斯克在内的多方质疑，认为该公司已背离最初的使命。 针对奥尔特曼晒出特斯拉退款邮件出错的截图，马斯克回击说，奥尔特曼"故意省略"了特斯拉在24小时 内就已退款的事实，并讽刺道："这很符合你的本性。" 马斯克与奥尔特曼于2015年与伊利亚·苏茨克维尔（Ilya Sutskever）和格雷格·布罗克曼（Greg Brockman）共同创立了OpenAI，当时这是一家非营利性AI研究公司。但此后，两人的关系逐渐恶化， 在社交媒体与法律文件中多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The value in the AI infrastructure market is expected to shift from chip manufacturers like NVIDIA to cloud service providers, but this perspective is challenged by the current economic realities of data centers and intense competition from Chinese firms [1][2]. Group 1: Cloud Profitability Reality - Cloud service profitability is significantly lower than anticipated, as evidenced by Oracle's data center gross margin disclosures, which reveal limited profitability even after accounting for GPU depreciation [3][4]. - The economic model resembles a monopoly upstream (NVIDIA) extracting major profits, while the downstream (cloud services) faces fierce competition and high costs, leading to limited profits [4][5]. Group 2: Downstream Application and Competition - Downstream profits are not as optimistic as market expectations, with many enterprises finding token demand lower than anticipated and economic benefits from tokens not materializing immediately [6][7][8]. - The competition from Chinese firms, particularly Alibaba's Qwen series, is reshaping cost structures with significantly lower token prices, creating downward pressure on pricing [10][11][20]. Group 3: Capital Cycle Perspective - The AI infrastructure investment is projected to exceed $4 trillion over the next 5-7 years, with signs of overcapacity and declining unit profits reminiscent of the historical railway boom [23]. - Key indicators of a potential cycle turning point include declining utilization rates, intensified price wars, and tightening financing conditions [23]. Group 4: Future Value Distribution - The ultimate value in AI is expected to flow towards application developers rather than cloud service providers, as chip manufacturers currently extract high profits, but as model costs decrease, the real profits will shift to AI enterprise software and vertical industry solutions [24][25]. - Alibaba's low-price strategy for tokens indicates a future where tokens become cheap and replaceable resources rather than high-margin products [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., on November 3, 2025. The trends include upward, downward, and fluctuating movements, and the intensity of the trends is also indicated [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 921.92 yuan, up 1.07% [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11,441 yuan, up 1.66% [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 87,010 yuan, down 1.08% [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,355 yuan [14]. - **Lead**: The continuous reduction of overseas inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17,390 yuan, up 0.23% [2][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 283,910 yuan, up 0.11% [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity will move upward. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,300 yuan [22]. - **Alumina**: It is anchored by supply reduction. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view. The price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2,793 yuan [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It will run strongly. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,805 yuan [22]. - **Nickel**: The accumulation of inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while the uncertainty at the ore end provides support. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan [25]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The expectation of复产 restricts the upward space, and it will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 79,300 yuan [28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The reduction of warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Si2601 contract closed at 9,100 yuan [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Driven by positive sentiment, the futures price has risen. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the PS2601 contract closed at 56,410 yuan [33]. - **Iron Ore**: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 12601 contract closed at 800 yuan, down 0.31% [36]. - **Rebar**: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the RB2601 contract closed at 3,106 yuan, down 0.48% [41][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the HC2601 contract closed at 3,308 yuan, down 0.72% [42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract closed at 5,500 yuan [46]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the manganese silicide 2601 contract closed at 5,772 yuan [46]. - **Coke**: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the J2601 contract closed at 1,777 yuan, down 0.5% [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Driven by macro - economic factors and sector themes, it will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the JM2601 contract closed at 1,286 yuan, down 0.2% [51]. - **Log**: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 743 yuan [53][54]. - **Rubber**: It will run in a fluctuating manner. The price and trend intensity are not specified in the provided text [57]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: It will fluctuate strongly, and the volatility will continue to increase [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to strengthen at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market reached a record high for the year [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It will consolidate in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They will return to fundamentals and fluctuate in the short term. The strategy is to go long on PF and short on PR [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The driving force for the oil market is lacking, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The rebound of US soybeans supports the expansion of the soybean - palm oil spread [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans reached a new high, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow and fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Soybean**: It may fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Sugar**: It will mainly consolidate within a range [4]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the seed cotton price on the cotton futures has weakened [4]. - **Egg**: It will adjust in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Live Pig**: The price center may further decline [4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4].

Core Insights - The current challenge in the AI industry is not an oversupply of computing resources but a lack of sufficient electricity to power GPUs, as stated by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella [2] - The demand for electricity in AI data centers is projected to increase significantly, with a forecasted growth of 160% by 2030, leading to a need for an additional $50 billion in capital expenditure in the U.S. [2] - The competition for electricity resources among AI data centers is causing a rise in residential electricity costs, impacting ordinary citizens [5] Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand - Nadella emphasized that the main issue is the inability to provide adequate power for the existing GPU inventory, rather than a shortage of chips [2] - Goldman Sachs reported that the share of electricity demand from U.S. data centers is expected to rise from 3% in 2022 to 8% by 2030 [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts an addition of 63 GW of power supply this year, with major AI companies accounting for approximately 41.3% of this new capacity [3] Group 2: Impact on AI Development - If electricity supply does not keep pace with the growing demand from AI data centers, it could become a bottleneck for AI development [4] - Dell Technologies noted that some clients have delayed delivery times for AI servers due to power supply issues, highlighting the critical need for sufficient energy alongside computing power [4] - OpenAI has called for the U.S. government to add 100 GW of generating capacity annually to maintain competitiveness with China in AI [5] Group 3: Future Considerations - There is speculation about the potential for advanced edge AI hardware to replace the need for large data centers, which could change the landscape of AI infrastructure [5] - Sam Altman mentioned the possibility of developing consumer hardware capable of running advanced AI models at low power, which could pose a risk to large centralized computing clusters [5]

Core Insights - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman denied rumors of an IPO in 2024, stating there is no specific date or decision from the board regarding going public [1][2] - OpenAI's revenue is reportedly much higher than the previously mentioned $13 billion, with Altman expressing optimism about future earnings [2] Company Structure and Financials - OpenAI has completed a capital restructuring, establishing a non-profit organization called OpenAI Foundation, which holds approximately $130 billion in equity of its for-profit arm, now named OpenAI Group PBC [1] - The OpenAI Foundation owns 26% of the for-profit entity, while current and former employees and investors collectively hold 47% [1] Investment and Valuation - Microsoft supports the restructuring, with its investment in OpenAI Group PBC now valued at around $135 billion, representing 27% of the diluted shares [2] - Despite significant funding and revenue generation, OpenAI is expected to continue facing losses, with estimates suggesting a quarterly loss exceeding $12 billion [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Monitor risks in US banks [2] - Silver: Oscillate and rebound [2] - Copper: Lack clear drivers, prices to oscillate [2] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Lead: Declining overseas inventories support prices [2] - Tin: Focus on macro impacts [2] - Aluminum: Center of gravity to shift upwards [2] - Alumina: Anchor on supply reduction [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Run strongly [2] - Nickel: Smelting end inventory accumulation suppresses, while mine end uncertainties support [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices to oscillate in a narrow range at low levels [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Gold and silver prices showed mixed trends. For example, Comex gold 2512 fell 0.62% to 4013.40, while Shanghai silver 2512 rose 1.66% to 11441. Trading volumes also varied, with Comex silver 2512 seeing a significant increase of 57,975 in trading volume [4]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: Gold and silver ETF holdings and inventories changed. SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 1 to 1,039.20, and Comex gold inventories (in ounces) decreased by 216,666 to 38,243,477 [4]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Included news such as China's Ministry of Commerce's export exemptions for Nexperia and Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai copper's main contract fell 1.08% to 87,010, and London copper 3M electronic trading fell 0.35% to 10,892. Trading volumes and positions also changed [10]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: Shanghai copper inventories increased by 2,273 to 39,710, and London copper inventories decreased by 325 to 134,625. Spreads such as LME copper spreads and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Included news like the reversal of a copper smelting pollution - control regulation by US President Trump and production data from Anglo American and Glencore [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai zinc's main contract was at 22355, and London zinc 3M electronic trading rose 0.18% to 3050. Trading volumes and positions decreased [13]. - **Spreads and Inventories**: Shanghai 0 zinc spreads and LME CASH - 3M spreads changed, and both Shanghai and London zinc inventories increased [13]. - **News**: Included statements from US Treasury Secretary Bezant on interest rate cuts and Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai lead's main contract rose 0.23% to 17390, and London lead 3M electronic trading rose 0.15% to 2025. Trading volumes increased, and positions changed [16]. - **Spreads and Inventories**: Shanghai 1 lead spreads and LME CASH - 3M spreads changed, and London lead inventories decreased by 3875 to 220300 [16]. - **News**: Included statements from Pan Gongsheng on financial policies and China's October PMI data [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai tin's main contract rose 0.11% to 283,910, and London tin 3M electronic trading rose 1.29% to 36,180. Trading volumes and positions changed [18]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 58 to 5,674, and London tin inventories increased by 85 to 2,875. Spreads such as SMM 1 tin spreads changed [18]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, included news on trade policies, Fed interest rate cut views, etc. [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 21300, and LME aluminum 3M closed at 2888. Trading volumes and positions of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: LME aluminum inventories increased, and spreads such as LME aluminum cash - 3M spreads and near - month vs. consecutive - month spreads changed [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Included news on China's initiative at the APEC meeting and the US government shutdown [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai nickel's main contract was at 120,590, and stainless steel's main contract was at 12,655. Trading volumes and positions changed [24]. - **Industry News**: Included news on Indonesia's takeover of a nickel mine and China's suspension of a non - official subsidy for Russian imports [24][25].

Core Insights - Google is preparing to launch its next-generation AI model, Gemini 3, expected to be released in 2025, which aims to surpass Gemini 2.5 Pro and narrow the gap with OpenAI's GPT-5 [1] - CEO Sundar Pichai emphasized that while improvements in AI models are accelerating, significant breakthroughs will take time, indicating a gradual evolution rather than immediate results [1] - Gemini has become central to Google's AI strategy, with Alphabet's quarterly revenue projected to exceed $100 billion for the first time in Q3 2025, marking the official entry into the generative AI era [1] User Engagement - Gemini currently boasts over 650 million monthly active users, with query volume doubling compared to the previous quarter [2] - Despite this growth, Gemini still trails behind ChatGPT, which has reported 800 million weekly active users [2]

奥尔特曼和马斯克"吵起来了"，OpenAI曾被批"成功率为0%" 刘晓洁 北京时间11月3日，马斯克(Elon Musk)和OpenAI CEO 奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)掀起新一轮口水战。奥尔特曼发帖称，"我帮助你把原本以为已经夭折的组织， 变成了有史以来规模最大的非营利组织。" Sam Altman 9 $ @sama i helped turn the thing you left for dead into what should be the largest non-profit ever. you know as well as anyone a structure like what openai has now is required to make tha happen. 由 Google 翻译自英语 我帮助你把原本以为已经夭折的组织,变成了有史以 规模最大的非营利组织。 你比任何人都清楚，要实现这一点， 需要像 OpenA 在这样的架构。 = Elon Musk @ × @elonmusk · 1天 You stole a non-profit "你说我们成功率为0%。现在你们拥有一 ...

据巴克莱研究，美国正在规划或建设的数据中心项目总容量超过45吉瓦，预计总投资额将超过2.5万亿美 元，OpenAI、亚马逊、Meta、微软、xAI等超大规模云厂商是主要参与者。巨额投资背后是复杂的融资 结构，除了科技巨头自身的资本支出，私募股权公司和专业基础设施基金扮演了关键角色。 一场由人工智能驱动的基建竞赛正在美国全面展开。 巴克莱10月31日的研报显示，美国目前已规划的大型数据中心项目总容量超过45吉瓦（GW），这股建 设热潮预计将吸引超过2.5万亿美元的投资。 报告明确指出，这轮扩张的主要推手是OpenAI的Stargate项目、亚马逊、Meta、微软等超大规模厂商以 及埃隆·马斯克的xAI。这些公司为训练和运行日益复杂的AI模型，正以前所未有的速度规划和建设算力 集群。 这不仅是科技巨头间的算力军备竞赛，更对美国的电力基础设施构成了前所未有的挑战。激增的电力需 求正撞上美国现有电网的"电力墙"。电网容量不足、审批延迟和供应限制，正迫使这些科技巨头采取"自 备电力"（Bring-Your-Own-Power）策略。 巨头领衔：Stargate、超大规模厂商与xAI主导建设 根据巴克莱的追踪，少数几家科 ...