高盛发布研报称，去年中国消费必需品行业呈现"上下半年分化"格局，5月18日发布的反贪腐政策成为 关键分水岭。政策出台前，行业表现稳定，部分企业凭借产品周期、市占率提升或稳定股东回报实现增 长，如农夫山泉(09633)、中宠股份（002891）(002891.SZ)、万洲国际(00288)、康师傅控股(00322)及百 威亚太(01876)。 高盛指出，行业竞争加剧且分化显著。食品饮料行业竞争激烈，企业需加大促销及新产品推广力度;啤 酒行业面临价格竞争加剧;而调味品及预制食品龙头企业的竞争环境相对有利。 高盛建议，在2026年上半年仍以增长股为主，下半年随筑底机会浮现，可逐步转向价值股。整体而言， 高盛看好饮料行业的长期增长潜力，并对调味品、预制食品及乳业的复苏持更乐观态度。 展望2026年，高盛认为行业复苏仍取决于再通胀进程及政策方向，扩大内需已成首要任务，聚焦三大主 题：(1)筑底或转势;(2)渠道重组与自有品牌影响;(3)竞争动态与成本趋势。 该行认为行业有望在下半年筑底，尤其是烈酒、乳业的周期性复苏，以及啤酒、调味品和预制食品等即 饮场景的增长，预计烈酒今年下半年逐步复苏，主要由于商务宴请及高端需求回暖 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Budweiser APAC (01876) will see natural sales and EBITDA decline by 6.4% and 8.6% respectively in 2025, followed by average annual growth of 4% and 6% in 2026-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 8.5 to HKD 7.9, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The expected dividend yield for the company is projected to reach 5.7%, providing downside support for its stock price [1] Group 2: Recent Performance - The company is anticipated to report a 5.4% year-on-year decline in natural revenue and a 10.5% drop in EBITDA for the fourth quarter of last year, compared to declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in the third quarter [1] - Budweiser APAC's business in China remains weak, while growth in South Korea has slowed due to a high base, and strong growth in India has not significantly improved overall group performance [1] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategy - Despite increasing advertising and promotional investments in home channels, sales and profits in China continue to be under pressure [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the beer industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The beer industry is entering a new normal characterized by stock competition, with structural opportunities arising from category and channel changes. The demand for beer in China has been gradually declining in 2023, and it is expected to follow a long-term downward trend similar to overseas experiences. The average selling price (ASP) of leading companies is projected to increase by only 0.4% in 2024 due to weaker-than-expected demand recovery and inflation decline [4][7] - The rise of craft beer represents a significant opportunity for the industry, with leading companies likely to benefit from this trend. The penetration rate of craft beer in China is estimated to be around 3%, which is still significantly lower than the 5-15% levels seen in developed countries [4][20] - New retail channels are rapidly growing, driven by consumer demands for convenience, rationality, and differentiation. The estimated sales of beer through new retail channels are around 30 billion yuan, with a penetration rate of approximately 6% and an annual growth rate of about 20% [4][61] Summary by Sections 1. Industry New Phase: Stock Era, Channel Change, Craft Beer Rise - The beer industry in China is experiencing a new normal with both volume and price entering a downward trend. The production volume is expected to decline by 0.4% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024 [7][4] - The concentration of leading companies is expected to decrease slightly, with the CR5 ratio projected to drop by 3.5 percentage points to around 74.8% in 2024 [14][4] 2. Category Change: Demand Shift Creates Opportunities, Large Companies to Benefit - The demand for beer in China is at a turning point, with potential for big single product opportunities. The younger generation is becoming the main consumer group, leading to a shift in drinking culture towards personal preference [23][24] - The craft beer market is expected to grow significantly, with an estimated annual growth rate in sales exceeding double digits. The penetration rate of craft beer is projected to reach around 3% by 2025 [29][30] 3. Channel Change: Demand Stock Competition, Impact on Structure Manageable - The structure of beer distribution channels is changing, with a decline in traditional on-premise sales and an increase in new retail channels. The new retail channel is expected to account for about 6% of total beer sales, with significant growth in instant retail and membership warehouse stores [56][61] - The rapid growth of new retail channels is driven by improved logistics efficiency and changing consumer preferences for convenience and differentiated products [57][61]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Budweiser APAC (01876) will experience a decline in natural sales and EBITDA by 6.4% and 8.6% respectively in 2025, followed by annual growth of 4% and 6% from 2026 to 2027 [1] Financial Projections - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 8.5 to HKD 7.9, while maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The expected dividend yield for the company is projected to reach 5.7%, providing downside support for its stock price [1] Recent Performance - For the fourth quarter of the previous year, Budweiser APAC's natural revenue is expected to decline by 5.4% year-on-year, with EBITDA dropping by 10.5%, compared to declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in the third quarter [1] Regional Business Insights - The company's business in China continues to show weakness, while growth in South Korea has slowed due to a high comparison base; strong growth in India has not been sufficient to boost overall group performance [1] - Despite increased advertising and promotional investments in home channels, sales and profits in China remain under pressure [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights the short-selling ratios and amounts for various companies, indicating significant market activity and investor sentiment towards these stocks [1][2][3] Group 2 - The top three companies by short-selling ratio are Anta Sports-R (82020) and Li Ning-R (82331) at 100.00%, and Tencent Holdings-R (80700) at 90.68% [1][2] - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for Alibaba-W (09988) at 3.199 billion, Meituan-W (03690) at 1.835 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) at 1.518 billion [1][3] - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) has the highest deviation value at 45.50%, followed by Beike-W (02423) at 40.51% and China National Offshore Oil-R (80883) at 40.26% [1][3]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 百威亞太控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01876 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 18,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 180,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 18,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 180,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 180,000 ...

Group 1 - Budweiser APAC (01876) announced that Mr. Nelson Jamel will resign as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee to seek other opportunities [1] - Mr. Fernando Tennenbaum will be appointed as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee [1] - Mr. John Blood, Mr. David Almeida, and Ms. Katherine Barrett will no longer serve as Mr. Jamel's alternate directors and will be appointed as Mr. Tennenbaum's alternate directors, effective from January 1, 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Budweiser APAC announced the resignation of Mr. Nelson Jamel as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee to seek other opportunities [1] - Mr. Fernando Tennenbaum will be appointed as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee [1] - Mr. John Blood, Mr. David Almeida, and Ms. Katherine Barrett will no longer serve as Mr. Jamel's alternate directors and will be appointed as alternate directors for Mr. Tennenbaum, effective from January 1, 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) announced changes in its board of directors effective January 1, 2026 [1] - Nelson Jamel will resign as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee to seek other opportunities [1] - Fernando Tennenbaum will be appointed as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee [1] - John Blood, David Almeida, and Katherine Barrett will no longer serve as alternate directors for Jamel and will be appointed as alternate directors for Tennenbaum [1]

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited 百威亞太控股有限公司 非執行董事 鄧明瀟 （董事會聯席主席） （John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett女士為其替任董事） Ricardo Tadeu （John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett女士為其替任董事） Fernando Tennenbaum （John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett 女士為其替任董事） 獨立非執行董事 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1876） 董事名單及其角色與職能 自2026年1月1日起，百威亞太控股有限公司董事會（「董事會」）成員將包含下列 七名董事： 執行董事 程衍俊 （董事會聯席主席） （John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett女士為其替任董事） 鄧明瀟 （主席） 楊敏德 郭鵬 香港，2025年12月31日 郭鵬 楊敏德 曾璟璇 董事會設有三個委員會。各委員會的成員將如下： ...