【导读】 做空英伟达后，"大空头"又对特斯拉开火 中国基金报记者 泰勒 做空人工智能之后，美国大空头，盯上了特斯拉！ 在刚刚批评当前AI热潮之后，因电影《大空头》而闻名的投资人Michael Burry在博客文章中把矛头对准电动车制造商特斯拉，称这家由马斯克领导的公 司"估值荒谬"。 Burry 估算，特斯拉目前每年通过股权激励等方式摊薄股东持股约3.6%，且公司并未实施回购，而马斯克那份史无前例的巨额薪酬方案将会让这种摊薄继 续下去。 Burry 发表在他Substack付费通讯《Cassandra Unchained》上的文章中写道："特斯拉当前的市值从估值角度看极其荒谬，而且已经荒谬了很长一段时间。" 根据该薪酬方案，如果马斯克能够确保公司在未来十年内完成一系列业绩与市值目标，他最多可获得价值高达1万亿美元的特斯拉股票。马斯克已经是全 球首富。 截至上一个交易日收盘，特斯拉股价约对应209倍远期市盈率，远高于其自身过去五年94倍的平均水平。相比之下，标普500指数当前约为22倍远期市盈 率。 Burry于去年11月创办了《Cassandra Unchained》通讯，他表示，在关闭旗下对冲基金Scion ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry criticizes Tesla's valuation as "absurdly overvalued" and highlights concerns over stock dilution due to stock compensation plans and lack of buybacks [1] Group 1: Michael Burry's Critique - Burry points out that Tesla dilutes its shares by 3.6% annually through new stock issuance without conducting buybacks [1] - He expresses skepticism about Tesla's strategic shifts, mocking the company's transitions from electric vehicles to autonomous driving and now to robotics, suggesting that competition will undermine these ventures [1] - Burry has not disclosed any positions in Tesla stock but has established significant short positions in Nvidia and Palantir through put options [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Performance - Despite Burry's warnings, Wall Street analysts are increasingly optimistic about Tesla, with Melius Research labeling it a "must-have" stock due to advancements in autonomous driving and chip manufacturing [3] - Stifel raised its price target for Tesla, reaffirming a "buy" rating based on the company's advantages in full self-driving (FSD) and robotaxi services [3] - Tesla's November sales data reveals a significant decline in major European markets, with sales dropping 58% in France, 49% in Denmark, and 59% in Sweden, indicating ongoing weakness [3] - Conversely, Norway's sales surged by 175% in November, setting a new annual sales record, driven by consumer anticipation of future electric vehicle tax incentives [3]

Michael Burry explains why he stopped running his hedge fund. - MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images Michael Burry has been opening up to the world after he stopped running money for Scion Asset Management, with a more active social-media presence and a new Substack, and he just had an interview with the person who made him famous in the first place: Michael Lewis, author of “The Big Short.” In the “Against the Rules” podcast, Burry explained why he deregistered his hedge fund last month. Most Rea ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, a notable short seller, has criticized Tesla for being "ridiculously overvalued," citing excessive stock-based compensation and potential dilution from Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay package [1][7][10]. Tesla Stock Dilution Concerns - Burry highlighted that Tesla dilutes its stock by approximately 3.6% annually and does not engage in stock buybacks to mitigate this dilution [1][7][10]. - He expressed skepticism about Tesla's shifting focus from electric vehicles to autonomous driving and now to robotics, suggesting that this pattern may continue as competition increases [2][13]. Market Reactions and Analyst Opinions - Despite Burry's criticisms, some Wall Street firms have become more optimistic about Tesla, with Melius Research labeling it a "must own" and Stifel raising its price target due to Tesla's strengths in full self-driving and robotaxis [6][13]. - Tesla shares have increased by 6.5% this year, which is significantly lower than the 21% rise in the Nasdaq-100 Index, indicating a stretched valuation as Tesla trades at nearly 200 times its expected profits for the next year [9][13]. Controversial Pay Package - Tesla is facing scrutiny over Musk's $1 trillion pay package, which is contingent on performance milestones, with Norway's sovereign wealth fund voting against it due to concerns about its size and risk [8][13]. - Analyst Tareck Horchani remarked that Tesla shares are priced as if they are part of an "AI or robotaxi moonshot," indicating that many factors must align quickly to justify the current valuation [8][13].

Market Volatility - Recent market volatility has decreased as the potential for more rate cuts is being digested, with the VIX Index closing at 17.24 after reaching a high of 28 earlier in November and briefly dropping below 16 this month [1] Long Straddle Strategy - A long straddle is an advanced options strategy aimed at profiting from significant price movements in either direction or an increase in implied volatility, requiring the purchase of both a call and a put option [2][6] - The maximum loss for this strategy is the total premiums paid for the call and put options, while the potential profit is theoretically unlimited, although daily losses may occur due to time decay if no significant price movement happens [3] Long Straddle Example - An example of a long straddle on KO involves buying a $72.50-strike call and a $72.50-strike put with a premium of $323, which represents a maximum loss, while the maximum profit remains theoretically unlimited [7] - The lower breakeven price for this trade is $69.27 and the upper breakeven price is $75.73, with the premium paid being 4.49% of the stock price and an estimated probability of profit at 44.2% [7]

Michael Burry估计特斯拉基于股票的薪酬方案在无回购抵消的情况下，每年会稀释股东权益约3.6%。Burry特别针对马斯克提出的价值1万亿美元的薪 酬计划提出批评，认为该计划的规模和潜在稀释效应已成为机构投资者评估公司风险的焦点。 电影《大空头》原型、以成功预测2008年金融危机闻名的投资人Michael Burry再度做空特斯拉股票，称其"估值高得荒谬"，并警告马斯克提出的薪酬方 案将进一步稀释股东权益。这一举动延续了Burry对高估值科技股的看跌立场，也呼应了他此前做空英伟达和Palantir的策略。 周二，据媒体援引Burry在付费订阅平台Substack发布的文章报道， 他估计特斯拉基于股票的薪酬方案在无回购抵消的情况下，每年会稀释股东权益约 3.6%。Burry特别针对马斯克提出的价值1万亿美元的薪酬计划提出批评，认为该计划的规模和潜在稀释效应已成为机构投资者评估公司风险的焦点。 Burry近期将批评矛头集中指向人工智能行业，称英伟达向华尔街分析师分发的内部反驳备忘录"令人失望"并充斥着"稻草人论证"。他在Substack博客中 表 示"不敢相信"这些回应出自全球市值最高的上市公司，并称该文 ...

Group 1 - Michael Burry, a well-known short-seller, criticized Tesla (TSLA.US) for being "absurdly overvalued" and highlighted the company's annual dilution of shares by 3.6% through new stock issuance without buybacks [1] - Burry pointed out that CEO Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan would further dilute Tesla's stock, which was recently approved by shareholders [1] - Burry mocked Tesla's strategic shifts, noting the company's past focus on electric vehicles, then autonomous driving, and now robots, each time facing increased competition [1] Group 2 - Jim Chanos, another prominent short-seller, expressed concerns about Nvidia's use of supplier financing to boost sales, a sentiment previously echoed by Burry [2] - Despite Burry's warnings about Tesla's high valuation, Wall Street has become increasingly optimistic, with Melius Research labeling Tesla as a "must-hold" stock due to its advancements in autonomous driving and chip manufacturing [3] - Tesla's November sales data in major European markets showed a significant decline, with sales dropping 58% in France, 49% in Denmark, and 59% in Sweden, while Norway saw a 175% increase in registrations due to uncertainty over future tax incentives [3]

电影《大空头》原型、以成功预测2008年金融危机闻名的投资人Michael Burry再度做空特斯拉股票，称其"估值高得荒谬"，并警告马斯克提出的 薪酬方案将进一步稀释股东权益。这一举动延续了Burry对高估值科技股的看跌立场，也呼应了他此前做空英伟达和Palantir的策略。 周二，据媒体援引Burry在付费订阅平台Substack发布的文章报道，他估计特斯拉基于股票的薪酬方案在无回购抵消的情况下，每年会稀释股东权 益约3.6%。Burry特别针对马斯克提出的价值1万亿美元的薪酬计划提出批评，认为该计划的规模和潜在稀释效应已成为机构投资者评估公司风 险的焦点。 持续看空AI概念股并升级与英伟达论战 Burry近期将批评矛头集中指向人工智能行业，称英伟达向华尔街分析师分发的内部反驳备忘录"令人失望"并充斥着"稻草人论证"。他在Substack 博客中表示"不敢相信"这些回应出自全球市值最高的上市公司，并称该文件"读起来几乎像个骗局"。 Burry透露他"继续持有针对Palantir和英伟达的看跌期权"，直接向市场传递了对这两家AI明星公司前景的看空信号。根据Scion Asset Management 11月 ...

"The Big Short" investor Michael Burry, known for his profitable bet against the U.S. housing market during the 2008 financial crisis, has slammed Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation. Could the EV giant be his next target?‘Ridiculously Overvalued,' Says Michael BurrySharing his thoughts in a blog post on Monday, the investor criticized the EV giant's valuation. "Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today," Burry said in the blog post, adding that market cap and valuation have been overv ...

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings cycle for 2025 has shown strong growth, with many companies exceeding consensus expectations, particularly American Express, Palantir, and Roku [1] Roku - Roku achieved a double-beat on expectations, with adjusted EPS tripling and a 14% increase in sales [2] - The company reported positive operating income for the first time since 2021, driven by advertising efforts and subscription growth [2] - Following the strong results, Roku raised its fiscal year outlook and currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [2] American Express - American Express also posted a double-beat, with adjusted EPS climbing 19% and a 10% increase in sales [3] - The company raised its current year sales and EPS outlook, benefiting from strong quarterly results [3] - Sales reached $18.4 billion, a quarterly record, supported by successful launches of updated Platinum Cards and increased Card Member spending [4] Palantir - Palantir reported quarterly sales of $1.2 billion, marking a record with a 63% year-over-year increase [5] - US commercial revenue surged 121% YoY, while US government revenue increased by 52% [5] - The company closed over 200 deals worth at least $1 million, with a total contract value of $2.8 billion, up 340% from the previous year [6] - Customer count grew by 45% YoY, indicating strong demand and market presence [6] Overall Market Sentiment - The Q3 earnings cycle has been positive, with Roku, Palantir, and American Express contributing robust results, reflecting strong business momentum [7]