Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims rose to 241K, exceeding the expected 225K and the revised previous week's 223K, marking the highest level since February [3] - Continuing Claims surpassed 1.9 million, reaching 1.916 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating potential labor market weakness [4] Q1 Earnings Reports - Eli Lilly (LLY) reported earnings of $3.34 per share, missing expectations by 5%, but revenues of $12.73 billion exceeded projections and last year's $8.77 billion, driven by strong sales of the weight-loss drug Mounjaro [5] - McDonald's (MCD) posted earnings of $2.67 per share, slightly above consensus, but revenues of $5.96 billion missed expectations, with same-store sales at their lowest in five years [6] - CVS Health (CVS) beat earnings expectations with $2.25 per share, a 31.6% surprise, and revenues of $94.59 billion, up 1.76% from estimates, contributing to a 48% year-to-date gain [7] - Wayfair (W) reported a surprise profit of $0.10 per share, compared to an expected loss of $0.18, with revenues of $2.73 billion slightly above estimates, leading to a 6% increase in shares [8] Market Expectations - Anticipation for S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing data, with S&P expected to slightly decrease to 50.6, while ISM is projected to drop to 47.8, indicating potential contraction [9] - Construction Spending for March is expected to decline to +0.2% from +0.7% in February, reflecting potential shifts in trade policy [10] Upcoming Earnings - Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are set to report Q1 earnings after the market closes, along with other companies like Mastercard (MA), Amgen (AMGN), and Twilio (TWLO) [11]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has adjusted earnings expectations and target prices for most companies in the North American internet sector due to anticipated tariff impacts and a weakening macro environment [1] Online Advertising - Citigroup has lowered online advertising revenue forecasts due to macroeconomic uncertainties and expected spending cuts by advertisers, particularly in the second half of the year [2] - The Trade Desk is expected to be most directly affected by tariffs, with revenue projections for FY2025 reduced from $2.879 billion to $2.755 billion and target price cut from $70 to $63 [2] - Criteo's revenue forecast for FY2025 has been adjusted from $1.168 billion to $1.147 billion, with target price decreased from $60 to $47 [2] - IAC's target price has been lowered from $47.55 to $45, ZiffDavis from $52 to $35, and Outbrain from $5.9 to $4 [3] E-commerce - Consumer confidence is near historical lows, prompting a reduction in forecasts for discretionary e-commerce companies due to potential tariff impacts [4] - eBay is considered to have the strongest defense against tariffs, with FY2025 GMV expectations adjusted from $75.923 billion to $75.436 billion and target price from $80 to $79 [4] - Etsy's FY2025 GMS forecast has been lowered from $12.115 billion to $11.749 billion, with target price cut from $53 to $48 [4] - Wayfair's FY2025 revenue expectation has been reduced from $11.830 billion to $11.464 billion, with target price slightly increased from $28 to $30 [4] Website Builders - Website builders like GoDaddy and Wix.com are seen as having strong fundamentals despite potential pressures on small businesses from tariffs and economic slowdown [5] - GoDaddy's FY2025 revenue forecast has been adjusted from $4.934 billion to $4.888 billion, with target price cut from $260 to $234 [6] - Wix.com's FY2025 revenue expectation has been lowered from $1.989 billion to $1.963 billion, with target price reduced from $280 to $238 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on AMZN, SHOP, and CHWY, indicating confidence in their resilience compared to other eCommerce stocks [24][7]. Core Insights - The digital consumer is perceived as resilient but is showing signs of slowing in Q1 operating trends, with expectations for the upcoming earnings season to reflect this dynamic [2][19]. - There is a downward risk to operating estimates in Q2 and beyond due to higher global tariffs, which could negatively impact consumer demand and gross margins for exposed platforms [2][21]. - The report revises the 2025 US eCommerce growth forecast down to +6% YoY from +7.5%, reflecting lower GDP growth expectations [2][24]. Summary by Sections Ratings, Stock Price Performance and Street Estimate Revisions - AMZN's 12-month price target is revised to $255 from $220, with a current price of $173, indicating a 27% upside [7]. - SHOP's price target is adjusted to $150 from $130, with a current price of $84, showing a 55% upside [7]. - CHWY maintains a price target of $45, with a current price of $35, reflecting a 28% upside [7]. Where is the Digital Consumer Today? - The report suggests that the digital consumer remains resilient, but there is a notable slowdown in travel trends and discretionary eCommerce goods [19][20]. - Investor fears have been more anticipatory, reacting to data points from other industries and soft consumer confidence [19][20]. Downside Analysis: What Could Happen to eCommerce Estimates? - The report highlights that eCommerce could decelerate by as much as -10 percentage points in a recession scenario, starting from a revised baseline of +6% YoY growth in 2025 [47][46]. - The analysis provides downside scenario analyses to help investors understand potential risks to estimates in more negative scenarios [46][22]. Refreshing the US eCommerce Industry Model - The report updates the US eCommerce model, reducing growth forecasts due to macroeconomic headwinds and structural views [2][24]. - The analysis indicates that eCommerce stocks face a higher risk of downward estimate revisions compared to the average company in the Internet coverage [23][24]. Key Industry Trends and High-Frequency Data Heading Into Q1 Earnings - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on consumer goods, suggesting that they could accelerate the shift of consumers towards services, benefiting sectors like experiences, travel, and mobility [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly for companies like AMZN [54][56].

点击蓝字，关注我们 关税飓风下的电商突围战：高盛维持对亚马逊、Shopify以及Chewy的"买入"评级，因其业绩与 业务敞口更具增长韧性。 智通财经 APP 获悉，华尔街金融巨头高盛集团在最新发布的一份美国电商行业研究报告中，系统性 地分析了全球关税政策升级对美国电商行业的多维度冲击，重点聚焦终端需求变化与美国关税政策之 下的电商成本传导机制。高盛研究团队基于宏观经济模型、历史周期对比 (2007-2009 年金融危机参 照) 以及高频数据跟踪，预判 2025Q1 与 Q2 电商板块面临关税成本带来的盈利预期下行风险，但结构 性的投资机遇存在于未来消费者们愈发向服务性质的消费转移以及电商龙头平台的强大业绩韧性， 这些颇具弹性的电商股有望大幅跑赢美股大盘 —— 标普 500 指数。 密歇根大学消费者调查数据显示， 消费者信心指数创下自 2022 年 6 月以来的最低水平，消费者们对 一年后的通胀预期达到了 1981 年以来的最高水平 。纽约联储此前公布的 3 月消费者预期调查显示， 消费者们对未来财务状况的信心进一步恶化，认为自己家庭在一年后的财务状况将会更糟的受访者比 例上升至 30.0%，为自 2023 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头高盛集团在最新发布的一份美国电商行业研究报告中，系统性地分析了全球关税政策升级对美国电商行业的多维度冲 击，重点聚焦终端需求变化与美国关税政策之下的电商成本传导机制。高盛研究团队基于宏观经济模型、历史周期对比(2007-2009年金融危机参照)以及高频 数据跟踪，预判2025Q1与Q2电商板块面临关税成本带来的盈利预期下行风险，但结构性的投资机遇存在于未来消费者们愈发向服务性质的消费转移以及电 商龙头平台的强大业绩韧性，这些颇具弹性的电商股有望大幅跑赢美股大盘——标普500指数。 在美股市场，多数电商股，以及零售类股票自4月以来持续面临抛售，大幅跑输标普500指数，并且美国金融市场出现史上罕见的"股债汇三杀"，主要逻辑在 于全球资金对于美元资产的持有信心因特朗普关税政策带来的宏观经济层面巨大不确定性，以及特朗普政府欲罢免鲍威尔威胁到美联储独立性而大幅削减， 加之多数投资者押注特朗普激进的进口商品关税政策带来的通胀卷土重来趋势，可能令近年来因通胀持续高企而钱包捉襟见肘的美国消费者们愈发削减支 出。 密歇根大学消费者调查数据显示，消费者信心指数创下自2022年6月以来的最低水平， ...

Core Insights - The "Trump Tariff Losers" index increased by over 2.4%, reaching 78.18 points, despite a cumulative decline of 0.3% from Monday to Thursday, indicating a V-shaped recovery trend [1] Company Performance - Dollar Tree saw a significant rise of 8.1% on Thursday [1] - Five Below experienced an increase of approximately 7.7% [1] - Wayfair's stock rose by over 5.8% [1] - Gap's shares increased by over 4.9% [1] - Nike's stock went up by over 4.1% [1] - Best Buy saw an increase of over 3.9% [1]

Wayfair's biggest event of the year delivers unbeatable deals up to 80% off and new deals dropping every 24 hours to help shoppers make the most of every home updateBOSTON, April 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W), the destination for all things home, today announced that its annual Way Day will kick off on Saturday, April 26 at 12 a.m. ET. The global three-day sale is Wayfair's biggest event of the year. Way Day runs online and in-stores for Wayfair, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Joss & Main, with ...

百思买涨13.32%，Five Below涨12.39%，耐克涨11.36%，蔻驰涨11.02%，孩之宝涨8.81%。 周三（4月9日），"特朗普关税输家"指数涨12.57%，报82.99点。 成分股Wayfair收涨22.87%，SharkNinja涨19.97%，Gap涨16.11%，史丹利百得涨14.97%，斑马技术涨 14.16%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple is adjusting its supply chain strategy in response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods by increasing iPhone production in India to meet U.S. demand, as tariffs on Indian goods are significantly lower than those on Chinese goods [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Strategy - Apple plans to send more iPhones made in India to the U.S. market due to a 54% tariff on Chinese goods compared to a 26% tariff on Indian goods [1]. - Approximately 50% of American demand for iPhones could potentially be satisfied with devices manufactured in India [2]. - The company is seeking exemptions from the tariffs, similar to its previous efforts during the Trump administration [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Apple has increased its inventory ahead of the tariffs, which is expected to delay the impact until the next quarter [3]. - To prevent a rise in iPhone prices, Apple may reduce its margins and exert pressure on suppliers, maintaining the starting price of its flagship device at $999 since 2017 [3]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Consumer concerns over potential price increases due to tariffs led to increased foot traffic in Apple stores, resembling holiday shopping patterns [4]. - Following the announcement of new tariffs, Apple experienced a significant stock price decline, resulting in a $300 billion reduction in market capitalization [4][5].

BOSTON, April 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W), the destination for all things home, today announced it will release financial results for its first quarter ending March 31, 2025 before the opening of the market on May 1, 2025.Wayfair will host a conference call at 8 a.m. ET on Thursday, May 1 to review results. Investors and participants can register for the webcast in advance here.The call will also be available via dial-in here. The archived webcast will be available shortly after the call a ...