证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（195） 优于大市 奶牛存栏节后有望维持去化，石化链涨价或带动橡胶价格 原奶：奶牛去化有望延续，原奶价格 2026 年或迎拐点。2026 年 2 月 5 日， 国内主产区原奶均价为 3.04 元/kg，周度环比持平，同比-2.56%。 周度农产品跟踪：年内肉奶周期有望共振反转，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 2 月 14 日生猪价格 11.61 元/公斤，周环比-2.60%；7kg 仔猪价格约 357.14 元/头，周环比-0.13%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 2 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 2.33 元/羽，周环比+18.27%；毛鸡价格 7.32 元/公斤，周环比+0.27%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 2 月 10 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.7/4.4/5.6 元，周环比分别 +2.17%/-6.38%/+0.00%。 豆粕：估值处于历史低位，关注潜在天气或贸易端催化。2026 年 2 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The major shareholders of Guai Bao Pet are planning to reduce their holdings by up to 7.61 million shares, representing 1.90% of the total share capital, during the period from March 6 to June 5, 2026, following a significant decline in the company's stock price and a drop in net profit [1][3]. Stock Price and Financial Performance - The company's stock price has been on a downward trend, falling from a peak of 125.38 CNY per share in mid-2025 to 60.82 CNY as of February 13, 2026, marking a decline of 51.5% [2]. - The reduction in stock price has led to a significant decrease in the cash amount that can be realized from the planned share reduction [2]. Company Fundamentals - In the third quarter of 2025, the company experienced its first quarterly net profit decline since its listing, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.65% in net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. - The decline in profit is attributed to increased sales expenses, reduced foreign exchange gains, and rising depreciation costs, which have contributed to a slowdown in performance and negatively impacted market sentiment [3]. Capital and Technical Analysis - From February 9 to 13, 2026, there was a continuous net outflow of main funds, with a total net selling amount of 18.6372 million CNY, indicating a cautious attitude among institutional investors [4]. - Technically, the stock price has fallen below all major moving average supports, with the lower Bollinger Band positioned at 59.76 CNY, suggesting a weak short-term trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guibao Pet (301498.SZ), is expanding its production capabilities internationally, with a focus on long-term strategies and brand development, unaffected by short-term profit fluctuations [2]. Group 1: Company Expansion - Guibao Pet currently has a production base in Thailand and is in the process of building a high-end pet food project in New Zealand [2]. - The company emphasizes a long-term commitment to its self-owned brand strategy, prioritizing brand share over immediate profits [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - The company is dedicated to the core business of pet food, pursuing a strategy of high-end, functional, and global development [2]. - Guibao Pet aims to build long-term barriers through product upgrades, channel expansion, cost optimization, and research transformation [2]. Group 3: Market Positioning - The pet industry has significant market potential, with various companies adopting unique development paths [2]. - Guibao Pet is committed to differentiated competition, continuously strengthening its advantages in the market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guibao Pet (301498), has not disclosed specific new product launch plans or channel cooperation details, emphasizing that relevant operational data and performance contributions should be referenced from the company's periodic reports [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on its interactive platform regarding its business secrets [1] - The company maintains that it has not publicly shared specific plans related to new product launches or partnerships [1] - Investors are advised to refer to the company's regular reports for accurate operational data and performance contributions [1]

Group 1 - The company, Guibao Pet (301498), stated that it strictly adheres to regulatory requirements for information disclosure and has not disclosed or committed to specific growth rates or gross margin targets for 2026 [1] - The company emphasized that relevant operational data should be referenced from its periodic reports [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market concluded the Year of the Snake with all major indices showing positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 25.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 38.84%, and the ChiNext Index leading with a remarkable gain of 58.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Nearly 4,700 stocks recorded gains throughout the year, with 779 stocks doubling in price and over 100 stocks achieving gains exceeding 200% [1] - The top ten performing stocks, excluding those listed after 2025, are: - Shangwei New Materials - Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255) - Jiamei Packaging (002969) - *ST Yazhen (603389) - Honghe Technology (603256) - Dingtai High-tech (301377) - Feiwo Technology (301232) - *ST Yushun (002289) - Shengtong Energy (001331) - Chaojie Co., Ltd. (301005) [1] Underperforming Stocks - Despite the overall positive index performance, some stocks experienced significant declines. The top ten underperforming stocks, excluding newly listed and ST stocks, are: - Kangle Weishi - Hualian Co., Ltd. (000882) - Tianjian Co., Ltd. (301383) - Wantai BioPharm (603392) - Transsion Holdings - Guibao Pet (301498) - Yihualu (300212) - Aibo Medical - Longda Food (002726) - Beishidake (300822) [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a strong performance in the Year of the Snake, with major indices all showing positive growth. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 25.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 38.84%, and the ChiNext Index led with a remarkable gain of 58.73% [1] - Nearly 4,700 stocks recorded gains over the year, with 779 stocks doubling in price and over 100 stocks increasing by more than 200% [1] - The top ten stocks by growth in the Year of the Snake, excluding those listed after 2025, included companies such as Shangwei New Materials, Tianpu Co., and Jiamei Packaging [1] Group 2 - Despite the overall positive index performance, some stocks experienced significant declines. The top ten stocks with the largest declines, excluding newly listed and ST stocks, included companies like Kangle Weishi, Hualian Co., and Tianjian Co. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guibao Pet, confirmed its commitment to timely and compliant reporting of its 2025 annual report and the first quarter report of 2026 [2] Group 1 - The company will continue to launch and promote new products in 2026 [2] - The company's goals will be supported by product strength and research and development capabilities [2]

Group 1 - The company, Guibao Pet, is committed to cash dividends as a way to reward investors and is exploring other feasible methods for shareholder returns [2] - The company aims to continuously improve and establish a diversified shareholder return mechanism to better appreciate the support and companionship of its shareholders [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company, Guibao Pet, is committed to maintaining stable profitability in its overseas business by aligning its strategies with market conditions [2] - The company is actively addressing risks associated with fluctuations in overseas markets through initiatives such as a global supply chain layout [2] - Investors are advised to refer to the company's regular reports for relevant operational data [2]