Core Insights - Capri Holdings reported an unexpected quarterly loss and warned of potential margin impacts due to tariffs amid rising economic uncertainty affecting consumer sentiment and retail operations [1][2] - The company anticipates an unmitigated tariff impact of approximately $85 million in fiscal 2026 [1] Financial Performance - Capri's quarterly gross margin decreased to 61% from 62.3%, primarily due to a 130-basis-point negative impact from tariffs [3] - The company posted a quarterly adjusted loss of 3 cents per share, contrasting with Wall Street estimates of a profit of 13 cents per share [3] - Quarterly revenue reached $856 million, surpassing estimates of $825.7 million [5] Brand Performance - Revenue for the Michael Kors brand declined by 1.8% on a reported basis, an improvement from a 5.9% decline in the previous quarter [4] - Capri's turnaround efforts included the sale of its struggling Versace label to Prada earlier this year [4] Market Outlook - CEO John Idol projected a gross margin decline of 200 to 250 basis points for Q3, attributing this to higher inventory costs due to full tariffs [2] - Analyst Rachel Wolff noted that while Capri's earnings indicate some recovery in the luxury industry, demand remains uncertain due to economic turbulence affecting consumer sentiment [4]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) reported Q3 2025 earnings of $8.32 per share, missing estimates by 11.77% but increasing 6.26% year over year. Revenues rose 39.5% year over year to $7.41 billion, surpassing estimates by 2.15% [1][9] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenues were driven by strong growth in commerce and fintech segments, which grew 33% and 49% year over year to $4.17 billion and $3.24 billion, respectively [2] - Brazil generated $4.01 billion in net revenues (54.1% of total), up 37.6% year over year. Mexico's revenues reached $1.65 billion (22.3% of total), increasing 44.2% year over year. Argentina's revenues were $1.44 billion (19.4% of total), reflecting a 39.5% year-over-year increase [5] - Other countries contributed $308 million (4.2% of total revenues), representing a growth of 39.4% year over year [6] Key Metrics - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) was $16.5 billion, increasing 28% year over year and 35% on a foreign exchange-neutral basis [7] - Items sold grew 39.3% year over year to 635.2 million, with unique buyers increasing by 26% to 76.8 million [3] - Fintech Monthly Active Users rose 29% year over year to 72.2 million, with Assets Under Management growing 89% to $15.1 billion [3] Advertising and Market Performance - Revenues from advertising services rose 56% year over year on a reported basis and 63% on a foreign exchange-neutral basis [4] - MELI's shares appreciated 35% year-to-date, outperforming the Internet-Commerce industry's return of 12.1% [4] Operating Details - Gross margin contracted to 43.3%, while operating margin declined 70 basis points to 9.8% [9][11] - Operating expenses increased 32% year over year to approximately $2.5 billion, but as a percentage of revenues, it contracted to 33.5% [11] Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $2.58 billion, down from $3.01 billion as of June 30, 2025. Net debt increased to $4.6 billion [13]

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fifth week, causing disruptions to economic data and uncertainty for investors [1] - Key economic indicators expected in November include the S&P final U.S. manufacturing and services PMI readings, ISM data, and the ADP employment report [1] Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports will be released from various companies including Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bumble, BP, Capri Holdings, D-Wave Quantum, e.l.f. Beauty, Fastly, Harley-Davidson, IonQ, Live Nation Entertainment, Lyft, Match Group, Mosaic, ON Semiconductor, Palantir Technologies, PENN Entertainment, Pfizer, Shopify, Spotify Technology, Toast, Uber Technologies, Wendy's, and Yum! Brands [2] Key Market Events Schedule - On November 3, the S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing reading, construction spending, and auto sales data will be released [3] - November 4 will feature updates on the U.S. trade deficit, factory orders, and job openings data [3] - The ADP employment report, S&P final U.S. services PMI, and ISM services data are scheduled for November 5 [4] - Weekly jobless claims, U.S. productivity data, and wholesale inventories will be released on November 6, along with remarks from Federal Reserve officials [4] - The U.S. employment report, hourly wages, preliminary consumer sentiment data, and consumer credit readings are set for November 7, with additional remarks from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan [5]

Group 1: Fund Performance - Rowan Street Capital's fund remained unchanged in Q3 2025, with a return of +0.22%, leading to a year-to-date return of +20.4% net of fees, outperforming the S&P 500's +14.8% [1] - Over the past three years, the firm's capital compounded at approximately +54.2% annually, resulting in a cumulative return of +266%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's +24.9% annualized gain [1] Group 2: Shopify Inc. Overview - Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) has been in Rowan Street Capital's portfolio for over three years, compounding at 29% annually and being the best performer in 2025 [3] - The stock's one-month return was 8.86%, and it gained 103.38% over the last 52 weeks, closing at $162.01 per share with a market capitalization of $210.003 billion on October 22, 2025 [2] Group 3: Shopify Inc. Performance Drivers - Shopify's performance is attributed to operating leverage, margin expansion, and renewed investor confidence in its long-term growth prospects [3] - The company is enhancing its ecosystem through product innovation, deeper merchant integration, and new AI-driven tools, including a partnership with ChatGPT [3] Group 4: Market Position and Competitiveness - Shopify delivered $2.7 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, reflecting a 31% year-over-year increase [4] - Despite its potential, Shopify is not among the top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 69 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q2 2025, down from 77 in the previous quarter [4]

Upgrades - BofA upgraded Eversource (ES) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $85, up from $73, citing an "improving regulatory tone" and a projected 6% EPS growth through 2029 [2] - Leerink upgraded Exelixis (EXEL) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $48, up from $38, following the Phase 3 STELLAR-303 trial results, which established important levers for long-term investment despite a 12% stock decline [3] - Citi upgraded Nextracker (NXT) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $114, up from $66, highlighting its dominant position in tracker sales and potential revenue contributions from acquired businesses by FY30 [4] - Citi upgraded Sunrun (RUN) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $26, up from $11, noting benefits from rising electricity rates and increased leverage over suppliers due to market shifts [5] - Raymond James upgraded Capri Holdings (CPRI) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $25, indicating a favorable turnaround position supported by improving demand and conservative guidance [6] Downgrades - JPMorgan downgraded Goldman Sachs (GS) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $750, up from $625, citing high current valuations compared to European investment banks [7] - BNP Paribas Exane downgraded Verizon (VZ) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $44, raising concerns about strategic direction following a recent CEO change [7] - BNP Paribas Exane downgraded NuScale Power (SMR) to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $25, down from $41, due to concerns over cumulative shipments and financial commitments [7] - Citi downgraded NuScale to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $37.50, down from $46, highlighting potential sales by Fluor and stretched valuations [7] - TD Cowen downgraded Tempus AI (TEM) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $88, up from $72, viewing the stock as fairly valued after a significant rally [7] - Wells Fargo downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) to Underweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $11, describing the recent stock rally as "excess exuberance" [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is showing resilience and steady growth, with a GDP increase of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year, despite external pressures and internal challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters [2]. - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year [2]. - The average urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2% [2]. - Key manufacturing indices, such as the Purchasing Managers' Index, showed positive trends, indicating a stable macroeconomic environment [2]. Innovation and Development - The growth rates of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors outpaced the overall industrial growth by 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively [2]. - China is expected to enter the top ten in the global innovation index by 2025, reflecting a strong focus on innovation and technology [2]. - Notable advancements include the development of a new in-car infotainment system by Porsche's local team and the establishment of a major innovation center by Henkel in Shanghai [2]. Trade Resilience - China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 4% year-on-year, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth [3]. - The country has expanded its trade partnerships, being among the top three trade partners for 166 countries and regions [3]. - September saw the fastest export growth in six months, showcasing China's trade resilience [3]. Policy Support - The Chinese government has implemented proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic stability, including measures to boost service consumption and enhance project organization [3]. - The upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee are expected to provide strategic direction for China's economic development [4]. Future Outlook - The international community views China's economic planning as significant for global economic stability, with expectations for continued policy stability and expanded openness [4]. - Foreign enterprises express confidence in the Chinese market, seeing it as a valuable opportunity for future growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is showing resilience and stability, with a projected doubling of revenue performance in the next 3 to 5 years according to Coach's China President, Li Lian [1]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reflecting a solid economic performance amidst external pressures and internal challenges [1][3]. - The growth rate of China's GDP in the first three quarters accelerated by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year and the same period last year, respectively [3]. - Key economic indicators such as industrial added value and retail sales also showed positive growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.2% and retail sales rising by 4.5% [3]. Innovation and Development - The growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors outpaced overall industrial growth by 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively [4]. - China's innovation index is projected to enter the global top ten by 2025, indicating a significant advancement in innovation capabilities [4]. Trade Resilience - China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 4% year-on-year in the first three quarters, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth [5]. - In September, China's export growth reached its fastest pace in six months, showcasing strong resilience in international trade [5]. Policy Support - The Chinese government has implemented proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic growth, including measures to expand service consumption and enhance project organization [7]. - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to outline strategic plans for China's development over the next five years, which is anticipated to have significant implications for the global economy [7]. Future Outlook - Despite external challenges, the stability, progress, and resilience of the Chinese economy are expected to continue, providing new opportunities for global markets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is showing resilience and stability, with a projected GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, despite external pressures and internal challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance - China's GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters indicates a steady economic performance, surpassing major economies like Germany [1][4]. - Key economic indicators show positive trends: industrial value added increased by 6.2%, retail sales grew by 4.5%, and the urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2% [4]. - The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth, while China's economy continues to be a reliable growth driver [4]. Group 2: Innovation and Development - The growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors outpaced overall industrial growth by 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively [5]. - China's innovation index is projected to enter the global top ten by 2025, reflecting a strong integration of innovation and industry [5]. - Companies like Porsche and Henkel are enhancing their R&D capabilities in China, indicating a rapid development pace in local innovation [5]. Group 3: Trade Resilience - China's goods trade saw a 4% year-on-year increase, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth, demonstrating strong trade resilience [6]. - The country has expanded its trade partnerships, being among the top three trading partners for 166 countries and regions [6]. - Bloomberg reported that China's export growth in September was the fastest in six months, showcasing robust trade performance [6]. Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has implemented proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic growth, including measures to boost service consumption [8]. - The upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee are expected to provide strategic direction for China's economic development [8][9]. - The international community views China's stable policies and commitment to opening up as significant for global economic growth [9].

Mergers and Acquisitions - In January 2017, Luxottica merged with Essilor in a deal valued at 46 billion euros ($49 billion), creating the world's largest eyewear group [11] - LVMH acquired Tiffany & Co. in November 2019 for $16.2 billion in an all-cash deal [11][12] - Bernard Arnault consolidated control over Christian Dior in April 2017 through a 12 billion euro transaction, acquiring the Christian Dior Couture brand for 6.5 billion euros [4][12] - JAB Holding increased its stake in Coty Inc. to 60% in February 2019, totaling about $9.4 billion [5][12] - L'Oreal repurchased 8% of its shares from Nestle for 6.5 billion euros in February 2014, making Nestle L'Oreal's second-largest shareholder with a 20.16% stake as of October 2025 [6][12] - LVMH acquired Bulgari for 3.7 billion euros in March 2011 [7][12] - Estee Lauder agreed to buy Tom Ford for $2.8 billion in November 2022 [8][12] - L'Oreal acquired Aesop for around $2.5 billion in April 2023, aiming for international expansion [9][12] - Coach purchased Kate Spade for $2.4 billion in May 2017 to leverage its popularity among millennials [10][12] - Prada announced a deal to buy Versace for an enterprise value of $1.375 billion in April 2025 [11]

Core Insights - JD.com is actively promoting its 11.11 shopping festival, emphasizing significant discounts and a wide range of products available for immediate purchase [1][12] Apparel and Beauty - JD.com is offering a 50% discount on various apparel categories, including women's, men's, and children's clothing, with discounts up to 2500 yuan [3] - The festival features a variety of beauty products from both domestic and international brands, with promotions such as buy one get one free and additional discounts [7] Children's Products - The event includes a selection of children's warm clothing designed for comfort and protection, featuring items like lightweight down suits and multifunctional jackets [5] Accessories and Luxury Goods - JD.com is showcasing a range of accessories and luxury items, including gold jewelry and designer bags, aimed at enhancing overall style [9] Footwear - The festival highlights various types of footwear, including sports shoes and casual boots, designed for comfort and style during the autumn and winter seasons [11]