荣耀终端股份有限公司（以下简称"荣耀"）的上市进程近日取得了重要进展。据证监会官网信息，6月 26日，荣耀已完成上市辅导备案，辅导券商选定为中信证券。按照辅导计划，该公司预计将在2026年1 月至3月期间完成上市辅导工作。 在市场竞争方面，荣耀的表现依然强劲。根据市场研究机构Canalys发布的数据，2024年全年，荣耀在 中国大陆智能手机市场的份额接近15%，位居国内市场第五位。尽管在全球市场，荣耀的销量份额仅为 5%，排名第七，但其在国内市场的稳固地位仍然为其上市提供了坚实的基础。随着华为手机业务的逐 步恢复，荣耀也面临着来自原用户市场的竞争压力。 从股东结构来看，荣耀目前拥有23家股东，其中包括深圳市鹏程新信息技术合伙企业、深圳市春芽联合 科技合伙企业、深圳市智信新信息技术有限公司、深圳市宝安区投资管理集团有限公司、国信资本、京 东方科技集团股份有限公司、中国电信、中国移动、金石星耀（深圳）智能设备私募股权投资基金合伙 企业等。值得注意的是，春芽联合集合了27家荣耀的渠道商和代理商，这显示了荣耀在渠道建设方面的 强大实力。 在资本层面，荣耀也动作频频。2024年8月下旬，荣耀宣布获得中国移动的投资。同年 ...

Core Insights - The Canton Fair, established in 1957, is a significant biannual event that showcases the internationalization of China's trade [2][3] - The current edition has attracted nearly 43,000 exhibitors and around 250,000 visitors, covering an area of 1.55 million square meters [3][4] Global Reach and Promotion - The fair has expanded its international reach through promotional events in various cities, including Vienna, Budapest, and Amsterdam, as well as in African countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya [5] - The Canton Fair has been instrumental in helping Chinese brands, such as BYD, Huawei, Haier, and Lenovo, gain global recognition and market penetration [6] Opportunities for Businesses - The fair provides a platform for both large and small businesses to network and expand beyond major Chinese cities [8] - It accommodates a diverse range of sectors, with the spring fair focusing on electronics and home appliances, while the autumn fair emphasizes textiles and consumer goods [9] Changing Business Mindset - The participation of big companies aims to enhance international exposure and experience, reflecting a shift in the business mindset of Chinese exhibitors towards more proactive engagement in international trade [11][12] - The rise of Chinese fashion brands and designers illustrates the evolving outlook of Chinese enterprises in the global market [13] Cultural Appeal - The fair is complemented by the cultural attractions of Guangzhou, enhancing the overall experience for visitors [14] Future Prospects - The latest edition of the Canton Fair is expected to be larger and more impactful, aligning with the growing importance of international trading opportunities [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast for China at 4.5% for 2025, indicating a stable outlook despite lingering deflationary pressures [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariffs have de-escalated, challenges remain, particularly with persistent deflation expected to last for 15 quarters from Q2 2023 to Q4 2026 [4][5]. - A supplementary fiscal package of RMB 0.5-1 trillion is anticipated in Q4 2025 to support infrastructure and key sectors, reflecting a shift towards a consumption-centric stimulus approach [12][10]. - The report outlines three scenarios: a base case with lingering deflation, an upside scenario with continued tariff de-escalation, and a downside scenario with tariff re-escalation [12]. Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is projected at 4.5% for 2025, with a slight decline to 4.2% in 2026 under the base case scenario [12]. - The GDP deflator is expected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures, with estimates of -0.9% for 2025 and -0.7% for 2026 [12]. Tariff Analysis - The report assumes that US average tariffs on China will remain around 40%, with potential escalations still possible [13][14]. - China's export growth is expected to remain robust in Q2 2025 before declining in the second half of the year [15]. Domestic Stimulus and Policy Response - The focus of domestic stimulus will be on front-loading the announced RMB 2 trillion stimulus in the first three quarters of 2025, with a supplementary budget expected to be delayed until Q4 2025 [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from supply-centric policies to more consumption-driven strategies to address economic imbalances [70]. Consumption and Social Welfare - Consumption improvement has been policy-driven, but underlying momentum remains weak due to a sluggish job market [44]. - The report discusses the fragmented and unbalanced social welfare system in China, highlighting the need for reforms to enhance social safety nets [89][90]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is still too high relative to demand, with a need for structural reforms to address overcapacity issues [67][68]. - The report indicates that corporate pricing power remains subdued, with improvements in industrial profit driven by volume and cost reductions rather than pricing power [56]. RMB Outlook - The report forecasts mild appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with expectations of USDCNY reaching 7.15 by the end of 2025 [102][106]. - It also discusses the PBoC's plans for RMB internationalization and the establishment of a digital yuan international operations center in Shanghai [107][119].

Economic Shift & Geopolitics - The speaker argues there has been a rapid shift of economic power in the last 25 years, largely unnoticed [5] - The world order has changed significantly in the last 24-25 years [6] - The speaker challenges the Western media's narrative about China, finding it untrue based on personal observation [3][7] - The speaker highlights the "Thucydides Trap," suggesting the West is threatened by China's rise [16] - The speaker advocates for a multipolar world order, opposing hegemonic dominance by any single state [20][21][25] China's Economic Model & Development - China's economic model is described as a "socialist market economy," where the government owns core infrastructure but allows a private sector [14] - The private sector contributes significantly to China's GDP (60%), urban employment (80%), and new job creation (90%) [15] - China's rapid growth is likened to going from a bicycle to a spaceship in one lifetime, driven by economic reforms starting in 1978 [12] - The "Mayor's Economy" is mentioned as a development strategy, where local mayors are responsible for economic growth with state oversight [13] - China's Belt and Road Initiative is presented as a model for shared prosperity, contrasting with the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few in some Western economies [18][19] China's Future & Global Leadership - The World Bank projects China to be the number one economy by 2030 [27] - China is currently leading in areas like AI, electric vehicles (60 million), and digital finance [26] - The speaker emphasizes China's work ethic and long-term vision as key factors in its success [28] - A unified, multipolar system is needed to address global challenges like AI governance and pandemics [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [6]. Core Insights - Taiwan has added Huawei and SMIC to its export control list, requiring government permission for Taiwanese firms to conduct business with these companies, marking a significant regulatory shift [3][8]. - The report highlights Disco and Advantest as key players in the back-end semiconductor production equipment (SPE) market, which is less exposed to regulatory risks compared to front-end processes [8][10]. - There is an ongoing trend in China to promote domestic production of SPE, particularly for front-end processes, although the report suggests that China will eventually achieve self-sufficiency in high-performance components [4][9]. Summary by Sections Export Controls and Market Dynamics - Taiwan's Bureau of Foreign Trade updated its entity list, adding major Chinese firms, which may lead to similar actions by other US allies [3]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential export restrictions from US allies on Japanese SPE [8]. Back-End Equipment Focus - The back-end process equipment is simpler and has seen successful localization in China, reducing the impact of export restrictions [9]. - Disco and Advantest are highlighted for their strong market positions and engineering capabilities, which allow them to maintain high market shares in China [10]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - Advantest is rated Overweight with a target price of ¥10,300 based on expected earnings growth [17]. - Disco is also rated Overweight with a target P/E of 25.1x, reflecting its strong growth potential [14].

Asia Memory Equities Memory prices continue to hover higher Korea Soaring memory prices: We reiterate our positive view on the memory sector. Previously, we highlighted a faster memory turnaround from April (see: Asia Memory report, 10 March). We now see that memory prices are hovering higher throughout 2Q, with a higher level of blended ASPs of +3-8% q-o-q due to 1) earlier phase-out of DDR4 products leading to aggressive purchases on the fear of shortages while solid demand for DDR4 is supported by the le ...

Core Insights - Arm Holdings (ARM) faces increasing risks of slower growth in China due to the country's shift towards RISC-V architecture, which contributed 19% of ARM's total sales in fiscal 2025, with revenues from China rising only 7.5% year over year [1][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China's ambition to localize its semiconductor ecosystem is driving the promotion of RISC-V as an alternative to Arm's proprietary models, offering cost advantages and design flexibility [2] - Major Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba Cloud, Huawei, Tencent, and ZTE, are backing RISC-V, which raises competitive pressure on ARM's presence in China [3][7] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA and AMD are closely monitoring China's shift to RISC-V, as it poses a threat to their market positions in AI hardware and server chips [4][5] - AMD's EPYC server chips directly compete with China's new Lingyu RISC-V server chip, indicating potential market share erosion for AMD if RISC-V adoption accelerates [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - ARM's stock has gained 18% year to date, outperforming the industry's 5% rally, but it trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 31.5, significantly higher than the industry's 8.1 [6][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARM's earnings has been declining over the past 60 days, reflecting potential challenges ahead [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [8] Core Insights - Total server shipments grew by 22% year-over-year (y/y) in 1Q25, primarily driven by cloud demand for both AI and general servers [1][2] - AI server shipments are expected to continue growing sequentially throughout 2025 [1][15] - High-end server shipments saw significant growth, increasing by 491% y/y in 1Q25, indicating strong demand for AI servers [12][13] Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - Global server shipments totaled 3.9 million units in 1Q25, reflecting a slight decrease of 1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) but a robust increase of 22% y/y [2] - The US market outperformed other regions with a 43% y/y growth in shipments, while Western Europe experienced a decline of 7% y/y [11] Segment Analysis - High-end servers outperformed with a 491% y/y growth, followed by mid-range servers at 143% y/y and entry-level servers at 12% y/y [12] - In terms of value, high-end servers rose by 679% y/y, while mid-range and entry-level servers increased by 179% y/y and 12% y/y, respectively [13] Vendor Performance - ODM direct shipments increased by 50% y/y in 1Q25, with a market share of 47.4%, up 10 percentage points from the previous quarter [14][15] - Major vendors like Dell, HP, and Lenovo saw declines in market share, with Dell at 9.1% and Lenovo at 4.9% [15] Stock Implications - Preference for ODMs/OEMs over components, with specific companies highlighted for investment potential including Giga-Byte, Hon Hai, and Quanta [7]

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing unprecedented demand driven by AI advancements and geopolitical tensions [3][5] - China's AI semiconductor market is expected to see significant growth, with local GPU revenue projected to reach Rmb287 billion by 2027 [21][19] - The overall AI semiconductor market is anticipated to deliver over 30% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, with inference AI semiconductors growing at 55% CAGR [78][77] Summary by Sections China AI Semi Demand and Supply - The top six companies' capital expenditures are forecasted to grow 62% YoY to Rmb373 billion [10] - China's GPU self-sufficiency ratio was 34% in 2024 and is expected to reach 82% by 2027 [16] - The total addressable market (TAM) for China's cloud AI is projected to be US$48 billion by 2027 [18] Semiconductor Solutions and Technology Trends - Moore's Law is expected to continue with chip scaling to 3nm/2nm for better power efficiency [78] - Advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS and SoIC are being utilized to increase data speed and memory bandwidth [78] - The EDA market in China is projected to grow at a 12% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching US$3.3 billion [29] Investment Opportunities - AI semiconductors are expected to account for approximately 34% of TSMC's revenue by 2027 [148] - The demand for custom AI semiconductors is increasing, driven by major cloud service providers and tech companies [120][121] - The global semiconductor market size may reach US$1 trillion by 2030, with AI semiconductors being a major growth driver [59]

全球重点区域： | Africa: top TWS vendors, Q1 2025 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Vendor | | Unit share | Annual growth | | #1 # | Transsion | 52% | +26% | | #2 个 | Xiaomi | 20% | +170% | | #3 10 | Samsung | 9% | +6% | | #4 | Apple | 6% | -3% | | #5 + | Huawei | 1% | +109% | | Source: Canalys estimates (sell-in shipments), Smart Personal Audio Analysis, May 2025 | | | | | APAC (excludes Greater China): top TWS vendors, Q1 2025 | | | | | Vendor | | Unit share | Annual growth | | #1 | boAt | 20% | +31% | | #2< | ...