证券研究报告 2026年2月26日 行业评级：优于大市 评级变动：维持 飞机交易市场韧性犹存，国际航线进一步修复 ——飞机租赁行业跟踪报告 分析师 资格证书 联系邮箱 ：钟奕昕 ：S0650524030001 ：zhongyixin@mgzq.com 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 核心要点 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 2 • 飞机制造商产能在缓慢恢复，积压订单飞机数量仍维持高位。受供应链及劳动力短缺等因素影响延续，飞机制造商产 能受限、交付延迟问题依然严峻。 2026年1月，波音飞机交付量为46架，空客飞机交付量为19架。IBA预测，2026年 空客预计交付略高于900架飞机，波音方面预计全年交付约670架。飞机订单需求持续火热，积压订单量继续维持在历 史高位水平。 • 根据IBA，自疫情影响消退以来，飞机二级交易市场持续走强。在二手交易市场中，窄体机依然占据主导地位，其中 以空客A320/A321系列以及波音737NG系列最为活跃。需求来源不仅包括现有运营商，也涵盖了拆解交易商与备件供应 商。与此同时，宽体机的市场价值与租金水平亦呈上行趋势，主要受发动机大修成本高企以及维修工位紧缺的影响。 展 ...

The London Company, an investment management company, released its fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter for its “The London Company Mid Cap Strategy”. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In Q4 2025, US equities posted the third consecutive quarter of higher returns, with the Russell 3000 Index rising 2.4%. The market highlighted how investors balanced the optimism on earnings growth and concerns regarding AI returns and cooling macroeconomic factors. In the quarter, the portfolio returned 3.2% (3.0% ...

Of the dozens of smaller and mid-range airlines that filed for bankruptcy over the last year, one of the most high-profile names is Spirit Airlines. The future of the Florida-based budget carrier known for its bright yellow livery is looking increasingly uncertain as it struggles under a second Chapter 11 filing less than a year after the first. Another major carrier to face bankruptcy is Azul Linhas Aereas, or Azul Airlines in English. Launched out of São Paulo in 2008, the budget carrier quickly grew ...

Core Viewpoint - Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. has announced a non-binding agreement with AerCap Holdings N.V. for the early return of 24 A320neo aircraft and plans for 10 future sale-leaseback transactions [1] Group 1: Aircraft Returns - The agreement involves the early return of 24 A320neo aircraft currently in operation [1] - All aircraft have lease agreements that are scheduled to expire within the next two to eight years [1] Group 2: Future Transactions - The company plans to engage in 10 future sale-leaseback transactions as part of the agreement with AerCap [1]

Core Insights - AerCap reported a record financial performance in 2025, driven by aircraft sales, leasing demand, and insurance recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict, with a GAAP net income of $3.8 billion and adjusted net income of $2.7 billion [3][6][12] Financial Performance - The company generated $5.4 billion in operating cash flow and had cash capital expenditures of $6.1 billion in 2025 [2] - AerCap returned $2.6 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, with a net debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1x [2][4] - Full-year revenue reached $8.5 billion, with sales volumes totaling a record $3.9 billion [2][6] Insurance Recoveries - Ukraine-related insurance recoveries contributed significantly, with AerCap receiving $1.5 billion in 2025, bringing total pre-tax recoveries since 2023 to approximately $3 billion [1][6] Market Conditions - The aviation demand remains robust, supported by record-high industry load factors, while supply is constrained due to delivery delays and maintenance backlogs [10][11] - AerCap executed 705 transactions in 2025, selling 189 assets with a gain-on-sale margin of 27% [12] 2026 Outlook - Management issued adjusted EPS guidance of $12 to $13 for 2026, excluding gains on asset sales, and forecasted lease rents of about $6.7 billion and Cash CapEx of approximately $5.2 billion [5][18] - The company anticipates a structural shortage of aircraft to persist through the end of the decade [11] Capital Allocation Strategy - AerCap reiterated a $1 billion share repurchase program and emphasized disciplined capital deployment, focusing on a "barbell" portfolio approach [4][21] - The company sold assets at high gain-on-sale margins and extended 87% of its leased aircraft in 2025, reflecting strong customer demand [4][13] Growth Initiatives - AerCap expanded its partnerships and acquired aircraft orders to enhance delivery certainty, including a notable acquisition from Spirit Airlines [14][21] - The company also received certification for its cargo conversion program, indicating resilience in the cargo market [16]

Core Concept - The article discusses the concept of "economic moats" as defined by Morningstar, emphasizing the importance of a company's ability to generate excess returns over a long period [6][7][8]. Group 1: Economic Moat Definition and Characteristics - Economic moats are defined as a company's ability to maintain excess returns, with a wider moat indicating a slower decline into mediocrity [8]. - Morningstar categorizes economic moats into three types: Wide Moat, Narrow Moat, and No Moat, with specific quantitative definitions and characteristics for each [10]. - A company with a Wide Moat is expected to sustain excess returns for at least 20 years, while a Narrow Moat can maintain excess returns for at least 10 years [9][10]. Group 2: Importance of Valuation - Valuation is crucial in assessing moat companies, with Morningstar advocating for a dynamic valuation standard based on the certainty of a company's business model [17][18]. - Different levels of uncertainty in a company's valuation require varying degrees of discount for buying and premium for selling [20]. - The article highlights that a more nuanced approach to valuation, based on business models, is more aligned with market realities than a blanket tolerance for good companies [21]. Group 3: ETF and Performance Comparison - Morningstar's moat investment philosophy is encapsulated in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT), which has been in existence since 2012 [22]. - As of the end of 2025, the MOAT ETF underperformed the S&P 500 index, primarily due to the recent market dynamics dominated by a few large-cap stocks [23][25]. - Despite underperforming the S&P 500, the MOAT ETF still showed better performance compared to an equal-weighted S&P 500 index [25]. Group 4: Evolution of Moat Concept - The article references Pat Dorsey, who expanded on the moat concept after leaving Morningstar, introducing categories like Legacy Moat and Reinvestment Moat [27][28]. - Legacy Moat companies have strong competitive advantages but limited growth opportunities, while Reinvestment Moat companies can reinvest profits into high-return opportunities [28]. - The article also discusses the emergence of Capital Light Compounders, which leverage network effects for growth with minimal capital investment [29].

Core Insights - Snap (SNAP) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 4, with expected revenues of $1.7 billion, reflecting a 9.12% increase year-over-year, while earnings per share are estimated at 15 cents, indicating a 6.25% decline from the previous year [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Snap's fourth-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $1.7 billion, indicating a 9.12% increase from the year-ago quarter's reported figure [1]. - The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 15 cents per share, which has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, implying a 6.25% decline from the year-ago quarter's earnings of 16 cents [1]. Group 2: Recent Performance and Trends - Snap has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing it once, with an average negative surprise of 46.43% [2]. - The company is expected to have entered the fourth quarter of 2025 with improving advertising momentum, particularly in the Small and Medium-sized Business (SMB) segment, which is anticipated to show robust growth rates [3]. - The advertising platform's machine learning investments are expected to have driven improved attribution accuracy, particularly for purchase-related advertising, which is projected to grow substantially faster than overall ad revenue [3]. Group 3: Content Engagement and Innovations - Content engagement trends are expected to have strengthened due to improvements in the company's recommendation model, with significant year-over-year increases in Spotlight views [4]. - The creator ecosystem is anticipated to have expanded rapidly, with Snap Star activity growing nearly 180% year-over-year in North America [4]. - New product launches, such as Animate It and Quick Cut, along with expansion to Amazon Fire Tablets, are expected to enhance user engagement and accessibility [4]. Group 4: Challenges and Headwinds - Fourth-quarter results are expected to reflect significant headwinds from regulatory pressures, including Australia's social media minimum age law, which is likely to have caused immediate user attrition [5]. - The rollout of platform-level age verification is expected to pressure daily active user metrics across multiple geographies [5]. - The introduction of Memory Storage Plans, which end unlimited free storage for users exceeding 5GB, is likely to have generated resistance among engaged users [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" [1][51] Core Insights - Aircraft manufacturers are slowly recovering their production capacity, but delivery delays persist due to supply chain and labor shortages. Boeing is expected to deliver 600 aircraft in 2025, averaging about 50 per month, while Airbus is projected to deliver 793 aircraft, averaging about 66 per month. The backlog of aircraft orders remains at historically high levels [2][5][7]. - Global civil aviation passenger traffic growth has slowed down, with all regions except Africa experiencing a decrease in year-on-year growth rates compared to October. Africa's airlines saw an increase of 12.6%. Europe accounted for the largest share of international passenger traffic, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% in November, while Asia's international passenger traffic grew by 9.3% [2][11][15][18]. - Overall, while aircraft manufacturers' production capacity is recovering, it still cannot meet the continuously expanding demand for aircraft. The aircraft leasing market remains strong, benefiting from the tight supply-demand situation. The Asia-Pacific aviation market has significant growth potential, providing broader development space for Chinese aircraft leasing companies, which are currently undervalued compared to global leader AerCap [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Aircraft Supply Continues to be Tight - Boeing's monthly delivery volume has significantly improved compared to last year, while Airbus's delivery volume is slightly better than the same period last year. However, both manufacturers' delivery levels are still far from previous highs [5]. - The backlog of aircraft orders remains at historical highs, with Boeing and Airbus accumulating new orders of 1,175 and 1,000 aircraft respectively in 2025 [7]. 2. Update on Civil Aviation Passenger Demand - In November 2025, global aviation revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) grew by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.6% in October. The global passenger load factor (PLF) reached 83.7%, the highest for November on record [11][15]. - The international passenger traffic in November showed robust growth, with Asia-Pacific and Europe regions maintaining strong performance, while North America saw a growth of 4.0% [18]. 3. Tracking Aircraft Leasing Companies - As of June 30, 2025, Bohai Leasing has the largest number of owned aircraft (628), while China Aircraft Leasing has the least (151). In terms of aircraft orders, Bohai Leasing also leads with 442 orders [39][44]. - The average remaining lease term for China Aircraft Leasing is relatively long at 7.9 years, ensuring long-term stability for the company's leases [47].

Core Insights - L1 Capital International Fund focuses on investing in high-quality companies with favorable cashflow-based valuations, emphasizing the importance of valuation analysis for AI-focused investments [1] - The fund achieved a return of 2.2% in Q4 2025, underperforming the benchmark MSCI World Net Total Return Index, which returned 2.5% [1] - For the full year 2025, the fund returned 9.8%, compared to the benchmark's 12.4% [1] Company Focus: AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) - AerCap Holdings N.V. is engaged in leasing, financing, selling, and managing flight equipment, with a market capitalization of $25.48 billion [2] - The stock closed at $141.84 on January 14, 2026, with a one-month return of -1.02% and a 52-week gain of 48.04% [2] - The fund has slightly trimmed its investment in AerCap due to valuation and risk management reasons, despite it being the fund's largest position [3] Investment Sentiment - AerCap is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 55 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q3 2025, down from 63 in the previous quarter [4] - While AerCap is recognized for its potential, the fund believes certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Group 1 - Oakmark Fund's objective is to deliver capital appreciation by investing in diverse large-cap US companies, and in Q4 2025, it outperformed the S&P 500 Index with a return of 4.78% compared to the index's 2.66% [1] - AerCap Holdings N.V. is highlighted as a key stock, with a market capitalization of $25.727 billion, a one-month return of 2.36%, and a 52-week gain of 49.13% [2] - AerCap is recognized as the largest aircraft lessor globally, benefiting from secular growth in global travel demand, and possesses scale advantages that allow for a higher return on equity (ROE) than its peers [3] Group 2 - The management's opportunistic, returns-focused approach to growth is seen as a key driver of AerCap's performance, with shares purchased at a modest premium to book value or a single-digit price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple [3] - AerCap is not among the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds, with 55 hedge fund portfolios holding its shares at the end of Q3, down from 63 in the previous quarter [4] - While AerCap is acknowledged for its investment potential, certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]