| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、纯苯成本支撑走强 | 3 | | | 二、纯苯下游周度加权开工负荷较一月回升 | 5 | | | 三、2 月苯乙烯供应回归，基本面转弱 | 8 | | | 四、苯乙烯产业链下游-需求平稳反馈有限 | 11 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 13 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 纯苯苯乙烯 2 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 纯苯苯乙烯报告 装置供应回归，关注出口情况 【行情回顾】 2 月份国内石油苯开工负荷回归至 80%以上，环比上月上升，截至 19 日开 工负荷在 82.61%，加氢苯负荷较1 月有所降低，截至19 日开工负荷在 62.36%。 大榭石化、京博石化计划 3 月份前后重启，浙江石化 2 月中旬装置恢复。加氢苯 多套装置春节后存重启计划，行业开工有一定回升空间。纯苯供需格局存缓解预 期，但是现在库存依旧高企，消化需要时间。2 月苯乙烯行业整体处于盈利，2 月负荷较 1 月环比上升，主要来自几套装置的供应回归，2 月天津渤化 45 万吨/ 年装置以及中化泉州 45 万吨/年装置重启， ...

Navigating adverse economic climate Roadshow presentation covestro.com FY 2025 │ IR Roadshow Presentation 0 Covestro investment highlights FY 2025 │ IR Roadshow Presentation 1 Covestro is diversified across geographies and end-markets Key performance indicators and sales split 51% 47% 18% 18% 14% 14% 6% 31% Performance Materials Solutions & Specialties Sports / leisure, cosmetics, health, diverse industries Chemicals Electrical, electronics & Construction Furniture & wood Automotive & transportation 2025 sa ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for European M&A activity, expecting continued momentum into 2026, with a strong case for consolidation across various sectors [3][4][6]. Core Insights - European M&A deal value increased by 12% in 2025, reaching approximately $820 billion, driven by a shift in investor asset allocation towards Europe [3]. - Corporate profitability in Europe has risen by 50% from pre-2008 levels, yet many companies remain sub-scale, indicating a strong need for acquisitions to build capabilities [5]. - A robust pipeline of announced but uncompleted deals, along with favorable capital availability and regulatory conditions, suggests sustained M&A activity in 2026 [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Banking Sector - European banking M&A has seen a doubling in deal volumes since 2020, driven by restored profitability and regulatory support for consolidation [13]. - Banks are expected to generate over $500 billion in excess capital above regulatory minima over the next three years, which will be increasingly deployed in M&A [15]. 2. Asset Management - The asset and wealth management sector is facing consolidation due to profit margin pressures, with predictions of a 20% reduction in the number of asset managers by 2030 [17]. - M&A activity is expected to intensify, with 100 to 200 transactions anticipated annually in Europe [19]. 3. Telecommunications - The European telecom market is maturing, necessitating M&A for value-accretive deals amid high investment needs for 5G and fiber [20]. - The average EU operator has about 5 million subscribers, compared to 107 million in the US, highlighting the need for consolidation [20]. 4. Defense Sector - Military spending in Europe is projected to grow at approximately 9% annually through 2030, leading to increased demand for production capabilities [23]. - M&A is shifting towards acquiring production capabilities, with a focus on modernizing technical advantages [25]. 5. Logistics - The logistics sector is prioritizing transformative M&A strategies to address e-commerce growth and traditional mail network contraction [28]. - Acquirers are focusing on contract logistics and technology capabilities as core to deal value capture [31]. 6. Pharmaceuticals - Pharma dealmaking is becoming essential as companies face patent expirations and pipeline gaps, with a focus on high-value assets [33]. - Transaction activity is expected to be dominated by selective, de-risked acquisitions and structured deals to manage valuation risks [36]. 7. Chemicals - The chemical industry is leveraging M&A to refocus portfolios on specialty segments and secure cash flow amid economic challenges [37]. - Larger transactions are aimed at building global platforms and enhancing sustainability efforts [39]. 8. Insurance - M&A activity in the insurance sector is driven by private equity consolidation, accounting for about 90% of transactions by volume [42]. - The report anticipates continued acquisitions of specialty underwriting franchises by strategic buyers [45]. 9. Private Equity - European corporates hold approximately €2.6 trillion in cash, creating opportunities for trade buyers of private equity-backed assets [48]. - In 2026, over 1,500 European PE-backed assets, representing $760 billion in enterprise value, could potentially come to market [49]. 10. Portfolio Rebalancing - Portfolio rebalancing is becoming a core theme in European M&A as companies respond to economic headwinds and high capital costs [56]. - One-third of European corporates deliver returns below their cost of capital, indicating a need for divestitures of non-core assets [56].

封闭型聚氨酯固化剂是一种通过使用封闭剂（如酮肟、醇类、胺类、酯类等）将异氰酸酯官能团暂时失活的交联剂，可 在储存和运输过程中避免 NCO 与水、醇等发生副反应，具有优异的贮存稳定性与环境兼容性。在固化条件（通常为加 热至 100 ～ 180 ℃）下，封闭剂解离，释放活性 NCO ，与树脂中的羟基发生交联，形成高性能的聚氨酯网络结构。其 固化后涂层具有优异的耐水性、耐化学性、附着力和机械强度，广泛用于汽车涂装、金属防腐、木器涂料、电子封装、 织物后整理等高性能涂装领域。作为低 VOC 和环保配方的关键助剂，封闭型聚氨酯固化剂正朝着低温解封、快速反 应、高交联效率等方向持续发展。 封闭型聚氨酯固化剂行业发展总体概况 0 1 封闭型聚氨酯固化剂行业近年来呈现稳步发展的态势，其驱动力主要来自环保法规趋严、高性能涂料与胶黏剂需求增长以及下游 应用领域的不断拓展。与传统游离异氰酸酯固化剂相比，封闭型聚氨酯固化剂在储存稳定性、安全性及施工便利性方面具备显著 优势，能够在常温或较低温度下保持反应活性被 "封闭"，在加热或特定条件下释放活性基团实现交联固化。这一特性使其广泛应 用于工业涂料、粉末涂料、电子封装、木器涂饰、汽车零 ...

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call on the China Chemical Sector Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China Chemical Sector, specifically MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), refrigerants, electrolytes, and TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) [2][3][4][5] MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - **Price Trends**: pMDI prices have decreased year-to-date (YTD), averaging Rmb15,986/t, down 6% YoY, with a forecast range of Rmb14,500-16,000/t for 2026 [8][11] - **Supply Dynamics**: Expected capacity additions in 2026 include Wanhua (700ktpa), BASF (160ktpa), and Covestro (40ktpa) [9] - **Demand Outlook**: Modest domestic demand growth anticipated in 2026, with a projected consumption growth of 2-6% for major downstream applications [10] - **Export Challenges**: Exports expected to decline to ~0.8mt in 2025, primarily due to reduced shipments to the US [10] Refrigerants - **Pricing Divergence**: Significant price variations observed YTD, with R32 and R134a prices increasing by 57% and 47% YoY, respectively, while R22 prices fell due to weak demand [12][15] - **Future Price Projections**: R32 and R134a prices expected to reach Rmb69,500/t and Rmb63,500/t by end-2026, respectively [14] - **Demand Risks**: Potential downside risks from new air conditioning demand and increased overseas capacity, particularly in India [15] Electrolytes - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Anticipated moderation in supply-demand imbalance for LiPF6 in 2026, with a price range forecast of Rmb80,000-90,000/t [16][17] - **Capacity Growth**: Expected capacity growth of 6.8% in 2026, with a slowdown to ~5.4% CAGR from 2026-2030 [17] - **Additives Pricing**: Significant price increases for electrolyte additives noted, with vinylene carbonate rising to Rmb108,000/t [18] TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) - **Market Conditions**: Domestic TiO2 producers facing losses due to oversupply and high costs, with average prices projected to decline 3% YoY to Rmb13,500/t in 2026 [5][23] - **Capacity Additions**: Anticipated new capacity of 1.12mtpa in 2026, with 200ktpa expected to come online early in the year [21] - **Export Recovery**: Mild recovery in TiO2 export volumes expected, driven by global demand growth and potential changes in India's anti-dumping policies [22] Additional Insights - **Risks in the Chemical Sector**: Key risks include price volatility due to fluctuations in oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties affecting demand, and rapid capacity expansions leading to oversupply [24] - **Analyst Insights**: The opinions expressed by experts do not necessarily reflect the views of UBS, and the firm disclaims responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided [7]

Core Viewpoint - Abu Dhabi state oil firm ADNOC and Germany's Covestro have received final regulatory approval for their €14.7 billion ($16.9 billion) takeover deal [1] Group 1 - The takeover deal marks a significant investment in the chemical sector by ADNOC, enhancing its portfolio and strategic positioning [1] - Covestro, a leading global supplier of high-performance plastics, will benefit from ADNOC's resources and market access [1] - The approval from the German economy ministry is a crucial step in finalizing the acquisition, indicating regulatory support for foreign investments in Germany [1]

Core Viewpoint - The regulator believes that Adnoc's proposal to share Covestro's sustainability patents with certain competitors will alleviate concerns regarding the impact on the EU's internal market [1] Group 1 - Adnoc's offer is seen as a measure to balance competitive dynamics within the EU [1]

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. won conditional European Union approval for its €12 billion takeover of Covestro after it dealt with the bloc's concerns that its state subsidies could stifle competition https://t.co/T4IDyz4xM5 ...

Core Insights - Abu Dhabi state oil firm ADNOC has received the EU's conditional approval for its €14.7 billion ($17 billion) bid for German chemicals company Covestro [1] Group 1 - ADNOC's bid for Covestro is valued at €14.7 billion, equivalent to $17 billion [1]

市场趋势与行业动态 - 亚洲股市从四月份以来最大两日跌幅中反弹，逢低买入者回归，此前对估值过高的担忧有所缓解 [1][48] - 美国最高法院对特朗普总统的全球关税表示怀疑，暗示其可能越权 [1][7][49] - 科技股回调引发市场抛售，但对人工智能的乐观情绪依然存在 [16][20] - 美国十年期国债收益率大幅走高，达到 4.15%，财政部暗示可能增加供应 [4][51][95] - 美国经济状况依然强劲，企业盈利表现良好，标普 500 指数近 80% 的公司报告盈利，同比增长 12%，每股收益超出预期 6% [22] - 沙特阿拉伯下调对亚洲的官方售价，并持续关注美国库存的增长 [5][52] - 美元走强，测试 200 日移动平均线，为一年来首次 [6][53] - 尼日利亚重返全球债务市场，通过债券销售筹集 20 亿美元 [39] - 刚果共和国重返全球债务市场，以 13.7% 的收益率出售 6.7 亿美元债券 [42] - 中国将取消对美国农产品的关税，并解除对美国公司的出口限制 [46] 投资机会与潜在风险 - 最高法院对特朗普关税的质疑可能导致关税重新评估和退款 [3][50][51][96] - 估值过高并非股市大跌的唯一原因，需要更大的负面催化剂 [26][27] - 预计标普 500 指数年底将达到 7000 点或接近该水平 [27] - 英国央行预计将维持利率不变，关注即将到来的预算和疲软的数据 [2][49][79][81] - 预计利率下调和市场流动性增加将推动市场上涨 [28] - 卡塔尔计划向埃及投资 35 亿美元，开发旅游景点和高尔夫球场 [64][71] 公司财务表现 - ARM 预计第三季度销售额将达到 13 亿美元，超过预期，人工智能技术需求强劲 [29] - 高通公司对本季度给出了乐观的预测，称销售额已达 120 亿美元，对高端安卓芯片的需求依然强劲 [29] - 土耳其航空公司指责发动机制造商垄断并抬高价格，利润率超过 25% [44][75] - 国泰航空宣布将从卡塔尔航空回购股份，表明对香港航空枢纽地位的信心 [78]