Copper is undergoing a profound structural shift. After years of cyclical trading, it’s broken out, driven by an irrefutable reality: the world simply doesn't have enough of it to meet future demand.For investors, the narrative is shifting from a standard cyclical play to a potential long-term macro investment, based on supply demand dynamics.This backdrop creates a compelling opportunity for ASX-listed miners, particularly those capable of bringing new, long-term supply online in tier-one jurisdictions lik ...

Core Viewpoint - Australia is projected to maintain its position as the world's largest iron ore producer, with production expected to reach 993.4 million tonnes (mt) by 2026, driven by ongoing project ramp-ups and new developments [1][3]. Production Overview - In 2024, Australia accounted for 36.8% of global iron ore production, with an output of 967.8 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [1]. - Key projects contributing to this growth include MRL's Onslow, BHP's South Flank, and Fortescue's Iron Bridge, along with the new Western Range mine, which has a production capacity of 25 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) [1]. Challenges and Adjustments - Operational challenges have impacted production, including the ramp-down of BHP's Yandi mine due to resource depletion, reduced output from Roy Hill amid lower iron ore prices, and weather-related disruptions like Cyclone Zelia [2]. - The Koolyanobbing mine was placed on care-and-maintenance due to limited reserves and high operating costs, further constraining output [2]. Future Projections - Australia's iron ore production is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, reaching 993.4 million tonnes, supported by ramp-ups at existing projects and the planned start-up of McPhee Creek and Lamb Creek [3]. - The Koolyanobbing mine is anticipated to resume operations in December 2025 following its sale [3]. Long-term Outlook - Over the forecast period from 2026 to 2035, Australia's iron ore output is expected to trend higher, despite a temporary dip in 2033 due to scheduled mine closures [4]. - New projects such as Mulga Downs, Rhodes Ridge, and others are expected to support supply, while depletion-driven shutdowns at various mines will partially offset this growth [4]. Growth Rate - Overall, Australia's iron ore production is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1%, reaching 1,094.6 million tonnes by 2035 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract fell 2.48%. During the long - holiday, the iron ore spot market was quiet, with few inquiries, quotes, and transactions. The Singapore iron ore swap declined slightly. It's expected that post - holiday restocking demand from steel mills will be low, providing limited support to the market. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - From February 16th to 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.31 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.133 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.984 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 21.524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.656 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.277 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.033 million tons [4][30][31]. 3.2 Market Outlook - After the holiday, it's expected that steel mills' restocking demand will be low, offering limited support to the futures market. It is advised to stay on the sidelines [5][32]. 3.3 Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, arbitrage, and options trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][33]. 3.4 Important Market Information - On February 16th, President Xi Jinping's article emphasized that in 2026, economic work should focus on key points, adhere to domestic - demand leadership, and build a strong domestic market. - On February 18th, Fortescue applied to the Western Australian EPA to build a 12 - million - ton - per - year Wyloo North iron ore project in the Pilbara region. - On February 21st, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods starting from February 24th, which was later raised to 15%. Trump also claimed that the US trade deficit had decreased by 78% [13][14]. 3.5 Supply - Side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, an increase of 9.11 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.16 per ton, a decrease of $0.33 from the previous month. - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 61.112 million tons, a decrease of 10.281 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's shipment volume was 18.891 million tons, a decrease of 8.744 million tons from the first half of the month [17][21]. 3.6 Demand - Side Situation - The report mentions data sources for 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, 247 steel mills' profitability rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire - rod procurement volume, but no specific data is provided [23][24][27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - From February 16th to 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.31 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.133 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.984 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.211 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.746 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 21.524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.656 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.277 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.033 million tons. - Rio Tinto expects the unit cash cost (FOB basis) of Pilbara iron ore in 2026 to be between $23.5 and $25 per wet ton. - By the end of 2025, over 80% of China's crude steel production capacity achieved ultra - low emissions. The energy consumption of blast furnaces and converters in 143 enterprises decreased by 2.5% and 12.2% respectively compared to 2023, saving 13.2 million tons of standard coal and reducing 34 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [30][31].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an underlying EBITDA increase of 9% to $25.4 billion, driven by strong operational performance and productivity improvements [6][12] - Stable underlying earnings were recorded at $10.9 billion, with a dividend payout of 60%, equating to $6.5 billion returned to shareholders [6][13] - Net debt increased to $14.4 billion, reflecting the Arcadium acquisition, but remains manageable with a gearing ratio of 18% [13][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper equivalent production increased by 8%, setting annual records for both copper and bauxite, with copper EBITDA more than doubling to $7.4 billion [5][20] - Iron ore delivered $15.2 billion of EBITDA, with unit costs in line with guidance at $23.50 per ton [20] - Aluminum maintained stability, with EBITDA up 20%, benefiting from stronger market conditions [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 9%, with copper ending the year 44% higher than the previous year [14] - The demand for lithium has surged, with prices increasing significantly, reflecting a strong market recovery [14][60] - The iron ore market remains supported by Chinese steel export growth, with a structurally balanced market [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for copper equivalent production through the end of the decade, focusing on operational excellence and cost reductions [7][10] - A significant portion of the exploration budget (85%) is now directed towards copper, indicating a strategic focus on this commodity [9] - The company is committed to capital discipline, with rigorous capital allocation guiding all investment decisions [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the need for improved safety measures following a tragic incident at the Simandou site, emphasizing the importance of safety in operations [3][4] - The leadership expressed confidence in achieving production targets, including the ramp-up to 60 million tons per annum of iron ore from Simandou [9][58] - The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly in aluminum, lithium, and copper, despite some market challenges [7][14] Other Important Information - The company is actively testing the market for asset sales, including RTIT and the Borates businesses, to generate cash proceeds of $5 billion to $10 billion [10] - The management has restructured its organization to enhance operational efficiency and accountability [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Glencore discussions and coal ownership - Management discussed the valuation gap in the Glencore talks, emphasizing a focus on underlying asset quality and potential synergies [30][39] Question: Opportunities in streaming agreements - Management indicated that while there are options for streaming agreements, the focus remains on systematically evaluating the best capital release opportunities [32][33] Question: Cost-cutting opportunities in Pilbara - Management confirmed that the $650 million productivity program is expected to exceed initial targets, with ongoing efforts to identify further cost reductions across all business lines [34][35] Question: Iron ore negotiations and market dynamics - Management acknowledged ongoing conversations with CMRG and other market participants, focusing on securing supply and understanding customer needs [74][75] Question: Geopolitical risk considerations - Management highlighted the importance of value assessment and risk mitigation strategies when considering investments in higher-risk regions [92][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underlying EBITDA increased by 9% to $25.4 billion, driven by strong operational performance and productivity improvements [6][12] - Stable underlying earnings of $10.9 billion, with a dividend payout of 60%, equating to $6.5 billion returned to shareholders [6][13] - Net debt rose to $14.4 billion, with a modest gearing of 18% [13][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper equivalent production increased by 8%, setting annual records for both copper and bauxite [5][6] - Copper EBITDA more than doubled to $7.4 billion, with shipments up 60% at Oyu Tolgoi [20][21] - Iron ore delivered $15.2 billion of EBITDA, with unit costs in line with guidance at $23.50 per ton [20][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 9%, with copper ending the year 44% higher than the previous year [14] - Iron ore remains supported by Chinese steel export growth, with a structurally balanced market [13][14] - Lithium markets showed strong momentum, with battery storage demand emerging as a fast-growing pillar of the energy transition [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 3% CAGR for copper equivalent production through to the end of the decade, focusing on operational excellence and cost reductions [7][10] - A significant portion of the exploration budget (85%) is directed towards copper, emphasizing the importance of value-accretive projects [9] - The company is committed to capital discipline, with rigorous capital allocation guiding every investment decision [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the need for improved safety measures following a recent tragedy at the Simandou site, emphasizing the importance of safe operations [3][4] - The company is confident in achieving its production targets, including the 60 million tons per annum of iron ore from Simandou [9][58] - Future growth is expected to be driven by strong demand for aluminum, lithium, and copper, despite some supply constraints [7][14] Other Important Information - The company is actively testing the market for RTIT and the Borates businesses, aiming to deliver $5 billion-$10 billion in cash proceeds from its asset base [10] - The company has a strong balance sheet and is generating stable operating cash flow from its diversified portfolio [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Glencore discussions and coal ownership - Management assessed the transaction with a focus on underlying asset quality and potential value creation, concluding that an agreement could not be reached [30][39] Question: Opportunities in streaming agreements - Management indicated that various options exist across the portfolio for capital release, including potential streaming agreements [32][33] Question: Cost-cutting opportunities in Pilbara - Management confirmed that the $650 million run rate for productivity improvements is expected to be exceeded in 2026, with a multi-year program in place [34][35] Question: Iron ore cost targets compared to competitors - Management emphasized the importance of comparing full unit costs and highlighted ongoing efforts to drive efficiencies in the Pilbara [67][69] Question: Future of iron ore negotiations - Management confirmed ongoing conversations with customers, focusing on securing supply and creating value together [74][75] Question: Geopolitical risk considerations - Management acknowledged the complexities of operating in high-risk regions and emphasized the importance of value and risk mitigation in decision-making [92][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underlying EBITDA increased by 9% to $25.4 billion, driven by strong operational performance and productivity improvements [4][10] - Stable underlying earnings of $10.9 billion, with a dividend payout of 60%, equating to $6.5 billion returned to shareholders [4][22] - Net debt rose to $14.4 billion, reflecting the Arcadium acquisition, but remains manageable with a gearing of 18% [11][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper equivalent production increased by 8%, setting annual records for both copper and bauxite [4][10] - Copper EBITDA more than doubled to $7.4 billion, driven by higher prices and rising volumes, with shipments up 60% at Oyu Tolgoi [18][19] - Iron ore delivered $15.2 billion of EBITDA, with unit costs in line with guidance at $23.50 per ton [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 9%, with copper ending the year 44% higher than the previous year [12][18] - Iron ore remains supported by Chinese steel export growth, with a structurally balanced market [11][12] - Lithium markets showed strong momentum, with battery storage demand emerging as a fast-growing pillar of the energy transition [12][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 3% CAGR for copper equivalent production through to the end of the decade, focusing on operational excellence and cost reductions [5][6] - A disciplined approach to capital allocation is emphasized, with all projects required to create shareholder value [8][9] - The company is prioritizing copper in its exploration budget, directing 85% towards copper projects [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the need for improved safety practices following a recent tragedy at Simandou, emphasizing the importance of safe operations [2][3] - The company is confident in achieving its production targets at Simandou despite recent challenges [59] - Future growth is expected to be driven by strong demand for aluminum, lithium, and copper, with supply constraints in the sector [5][12] Other Important Information - The company is actively testing the market for asset sales, including RTIT and the Borates businesses, aiming for $5 billion-$10 billion in cash proceeds [8] - The company has a robust project pipeline to extend growth into the 2030s, with a focus on copper [7][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Glencore discussions and coal ownership - Management assessed the transaction with a focus on underlying asset quality and potential value creation, ultimately deciding against the merger due to limited synergies [10][39] Question: Opportunities in streaming agreements - The company has various options to release capital across its portfolio, including potential streaming agreements, but will prioritize value-driven decisions [31][32] Question: Cost-cutting opportunities in Pilbara - The $650 million productivity program is expected to exceed initial targets, with systematic reviews across all business units to identify further cost reductions [33][34] Question: Iron ore negotiations and market dynamics - Ongoing conversations with customers focus on securing supply and pricing, reflecting the evolving iron ore market [76][77] Question: Geopolitical risk considerations - The company evaluates opportunities in high-risk regions with a focus on value and potential returns, using higher discount rates for riskier projects [96][100]

Market Overview - The S&P/ASX 200 closed up on February 17, 2026, gaining 21.80 points or 0.24% to reach 8,958.90, with a 1.03% increase over the last five days and currently 1.71% off its 52-week high [1][10] - The mining subindex rose by 1.3%, driven by BHP's strong performance [2][10] Top Performers - JB Hi-Fi Limited (JBH) led the gains, closing at A$89.10, up A$6.70 or 8.13% [6][11] - Pro Medicus Limited (PME) followed, finishing at A$125.96 after rising A$8.99, a gain of 7.69% [6][11] - Other notable gainers included A2 Milk Company Limited (A2M) up 6.26%, PEXA Group Limited (PXA) up 4.76%, and BHP Group Limited (BHP) up 4.73% to A$52.74 [7][11] Sector Performance - The materials sector was the best-performing sector, gaining 1.28% on the day and 1.41% over the past five days [8][11] - Financials remained relatively unchanged, with losses in three of the big four banks offsetting Westpac's 0.3% gain [9][11] Upcoming Events - Investors are awaiting Rio Tinto's earnings report on February 19, 2026, and Fortescue's report next week, focusing on iron ore demand and sector outlook [3][10] - Traders are also eyeing upcoming jobs data expected to show a cooling in hiring and a slight uptick in unemployment, which will be crucial for the country's rate outlook [10][11]

Market Overview - Asian stock markets are mostly trading lower, influenced by negative cues from Wall Street, particularly in technology stocks amid valuation concerns and the impact of artificial intelligence [1][15] - The Australian stock market is sharply lower, with the S&P/ASX 200 falling below the 8,750 level, driven by weakness across all segments, especially mining stocks [2][3] Australian Market Details - The S&P/ASX 200 Index is down 159.40 points or 1.79 percent to 8,729.80, after reaching a low of 8,714.10 [3] - Major miners are experiencing declines: Rio Tinto down 0.4 percent, BHP Group down almost 3 percent, Fortescue down almost 1 percent, and Mineral Resources down more than 4 percent [3] - Oil stocks are also weak, with Santos down more than 1 percent, Woodside Energy down almost 2 percent, and Beach Energy down almost 4 percent [4] - Among tech stocks, Afterpay-owner Block is down almost 7 percent, WiseTech Global down almost 5 percent, and Appen down almost 9 percent [4] Banking and Gold Mining Sector - In the banking sector, ANZ Banking and National Australia Bank are down more than 1 percent each, while Commonwealth Bank and Westpac are down 0.1 percent each [5] - Gold miners are facing significant losses, with Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources down more than 2 percent each, and Newmont and Genesis Minerals down more than 6 percent each [5] Company-Specific News - REA Group shares are down more than 10 percent after first-half financial results missed analysts' expectations [6] - Web Travel Group shares plummeted almost 29 percent following an audit announcement by the Spanish Tax Agency [6] Japanese Market Overview - The Japanese market is showing a mixed performance, with the Nikkei 225 Index up 255.48 points or 0.47 percent to 54,073.52 after earlier lows [7][8] - SoftBank Group is gaining almost 2 percent, while Fast Retailing is down almost 1 percent [8] - In the banking sector, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is up almost 2 percent, and Mizuho Financial is gaining more than 2 percent [9] Economic Indicators - Japan's household spending decreased by 2.9 percent month-on-month in December, missing forecasts [12][13]

Summary of Iron Ore Market Analysis Industry Overview - **Industry**: Iron Ore - **Date**: February 2, 2026 - **Source**: Morgan Stanley Research Key Points Iron Ore Market Dynamics - Iron ore has shown resilience despite a decline in Chinese steel output and the commencement of shipments from the Simandou mine, with modest downside expected ahead [1][3] - China's crude steel output decreased by 5% in 2025, but pig iron production via blast furnaces only fell by 2%, indicating a continued demand for iron ore [3][25] - Iron ore port inventories in China have reached near all-time highs, suggesting a robust demand story despite the increase in seaborne supply [26][42] Supply and Demand Factors - Seaborne iron ore supply from Australia, Brazil, and South Africa increased by 2.2% in 2025, totaling 1,396 million tonnes, marking a new all-time high [11][4] - Domestic iron ore output in China fell by 2.8% in 2025, with significant declines in Hebei province due to environmental inspections and resource depletion [19] - India's iron ore imports surged by 46% YoY in 2025, indicating a shift in sourcing patterns as domestic production struggles to keep pace with rising steel capacity targets [20] Price Outlook - The average iron ore price is projected to be $100 per tonne in 2026, with a potential trough of $95 per tonne in Q3 [5][42] - The cost curve indicates that around 60 million tonnes of production is above $100 per tonne, influenced by rising oil prices and a weaker USD [4][36] - The introduction of a new 61% Fe benchmark in January 2026 reflects a shift in pricing dynamics, complicating the market landscape [39][40] Risks and Opportunities - Upside risks include a sharp decline in China's domestic iron ore output, large-scale stimulus measures, and seasonal supply disruptions [42] - Downside risks involve accelerated supply growth, reduced blast furnace utilization, and potential steel export restrictions from China [42] - The activity of China's joint purchasing group (CMRG) could impact market dynamics, particularly if disputes over pricing negotiations lead to restricted shipments [38] Conclusion - The iron ore market is navigating a complex landscape characterized by resilient demand from blast furnaces in China, increasing seaborne supply, and evolving pricing benchmarks. While modest price declines are anticipated, the overall market remains supported by cost structures and potential demand from emerging markets like India [1][42]

Market Overview - ASX 200 futures indicate a potential advance of 47 points, approximately +0.5%, despite Wall Street's mixed performance [1] - The Nasdaq experienced a decline due to a software selloff, while other markets, including London and Japan, showed positive movement [2] Company News - Nine Entertainment (ASX:NEC) is expected to announce the sale of its national radio network, including stations 2GB, 3AW, and 4BC [4] - Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) faces pressure from U.K. shareholders to merge with Glencore, with discussions about potentially scrapping its FTSE listing [4] - Twiggy Forrest's green hydrogen project at Fortescue (ASX:FMG) has reportedly cost Australian taxpayers up to $80 million before being abandoned [5] - Barkly Rare Earths is set to debut on the ASX under ticker code "BAK," aiming to raise $8 million at an offered price of 20 cents per share [6] - Wiluna, a $400 million gold miner, is preparing for a return to the ASX after being placed in receivership in CY22 [6] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at US 70 cents [8] - Iron Ore prices increased by +1.5%, currently at $104.60 per tonne in Singapore [8] - Brent Crude oil rose by +3.2%, now priced at $70.64 per barrel [8] - Gold is trading at $5,401 per ounce [8] - US natural gas futures increased by +4.2%, reaching $3.89 per gigajoule [8]