行业研究丨深度报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 内卷这道题该怎么解？——美国电力的经验 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC：S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 [Table_Summary] 美国 PJM 市场近年来恰好经历反内卷的脱困，其脱困原因不仅仅是 AI 带来的需求修复，供给 改革同样重要，其修改容量市场供给曲线来实现容量电价的数倍上涨，最终实现内反内卷的成 功。我们认为国内可靠容量机制推广具有类似的结果，而且火电走出内卷困境的方式无疑也可 以作为我国众多过剩产业脱困的关键思路：政策发力强制产能退出才能有效、直接解决供求过 剩的矛盾，强制退出的重要手牌中，"低碳"、"环保"往往是最优先考虑的选项，同时核定产能 规则调整所带来的变化对供给侧的影响最为有效，也更容易被大多数市场主体所接受。如果能 够 ...

Group 1 - The nuclear power sector showed mixed performance on January 16, with Talen Energy declining over 10%, Vistra Energy falling more than 8%, and Constellation Energy dropping over 6% [1] - In contrast, GE Vernova experienced an increase of nearly 5%, while Eaton rose by approximately 3% [1]

Core Insights - Talen Energy plans to acquire three gas-fired power plants totaling 2,567 MW for $3.45 billion from Energy Capital Partners [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The power plants include a 480-MW combustion turbine facility in Mount Sterling, Ohio, a 1,218-MW combined cycle facility in Lawrenceburg, Indiana, and a 869-MW combined cycle facility in Waterford, Ohio [2] - Talen intends to finance the acquisition with $2.55 billion in cash funded by debt and $900 million in Talen stock [5] Group 2: Market Context - The acquisition occurs amid a trend of consolidation in the power sector, with other companies like NRG Energy and Constellation Energy also pursuing significant acquisitions [2] - The U.S. Department of Justice is reviewing these transactions due to market power concerns, with Constellation agreeing to divest more capacity than required by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [3] Group 3: Operational Impact - The Lawrenceburg and Waterford plants operated at approximately 87% capacity factors in 2024, while the Darby plant had a nearly 13% capacity factor, producing 15,715 GWh [5] - Talen's overall capacity will increase to about 13,110 MW, primarily within the PJM footprint, which includes plans to retire two power plants in Maryland totaling 1,975 MW [4] Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - The deal is expected to close in the early second half of the year, pending approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission [6] - Moody's Ratings has affirmed Talen's existing below-investment-grade ratings, citing a negative outlook due to weak funds-from-operations-to-debt ratios since emerging from bankruptcy in May 2023 [7]

Summary of Nuclear Renaissance – Key Questions For 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the nuclear energy sector, highlighting the potential for a nuclear renaissance in 2026 and the investment opportunities within the nuclear value chain [2][12]. Key Questions and Insights 1. **Conventional Nuclear Supply** - Incremental nuclear supply is expected in the US, Japan, and China, with a more positive outlook for the US and Japan. The fastest pathways to add capacity are restarts and life extensions of existing reactors [13][14]. - Japan's nuclear policy is supportive, with recent approvals for reactor restarts, while the US has several plant restarts underway, including Palisades and Crane Clean Energy Center [15][16]. 2. **Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)** - The SMR market is becoming selective, with only projects that have clear regulatory pathways and credible financing likely to succeed. Demand from hyperscalers is strong, but execution risks remain [3][17]. - Currently, only four SMRs are operational globally, with many still in the design phase [20]. 3. **Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain** - Uranium is highlighted as a preferred commodity for 2026, with utilities returning to the market and spot buying remaining robust. The expected price is projected to reach US$90/lb by Q3 2026 [4][23]. - The supply chain is constrained, with long-term contracting activity improving as US utilities re-engage in the uranium market [24][30]. 4. **Fusion and Thorium Technologies** - Fusion and thorium remain long-term technologies with limited near-term impact on power supply. However, they are gaining attention and funding, indicating potential future relevance [5][31]. - China is advancing thorium technology with active projects, while the US is restarting research on molten salt reactors [33][36]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies 26 Overweight-rated stocks across the nuclear value chain, including: - **Nuclear Power Generation**: Talen Energy, Public Service Enterprise Group, Hokkaido Electric Power [2][11]. - **Uranium Mining**: CGN Mining, Paladin Energy [4][11]. - **Equipment & Plant**: Curtiss-Wright, GE Vernova, Rolls-Royce [3][11]. Market Performance - Uranium mining stocks have shown significant outperformance, indicating strong investor interest and potential for growth in this sector [6][11]. Monitoring Signals for 2026 - Key signals to watch include: - Japan's safety review processes and government support for nuclear projects [16]. - Progress on US nuclear plant restarts and regulatory streamlining [16]. - Long-term uranium contracting trends and advancements in enrichment capacity [30][31]. Conclusion - The nuclear sector is poised for growth, driven by increasing demand for clean energy and supportive policies in key markets. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and clear pathways to capitalize on the nuclear renaissance [2][12].

Core Insights - Talen Energy has entered into a deal valued at approximately $3.5 billion to increase its natural gas generation capacity by 2.6 gigawatts, which is aimed at enhancing its services for data centers [1] Company Summary - The deal will significantly expand Talen Energy's portfolio in the natural gas sector, indicating a strategic move to cater to the growing demand from data centers [1]

Core Insights - The utilities sector is not typically seen as a growth stock haven, yet it remains attractive for investors seeking high dividends and low volatility [1] - The Vanguard Utilities ETF gained 16.5% last year, ranking as the fourth-best sector in the S&P 500, closely trailing the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF's 17.8% increase [2] - The Vanguard Utilities ETF offers a 30-day SEC yield of 2.73%, more than double that of the S&P 500 counterpart, highlighting its appeal for income-focused investors [3] Sector Performance - The utilities sector can generate solid returns, as evidenced by the Vanguard Utilities ETF's performance [2] - The ETF's strong showing is complemented by its attractive dividend yields compared to other sectors [3] AI Influence - The utilities sector is experiencing a growth refresh due to the artificial intelligence boom, with increased power demands from data centers [5] - Goldman Sachs projects a 2.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in U.S. power consumption from 2023 to 2030, largely driven by data centers [6] Strategic Partnerships - Constellation Energy, a major holding in the ETF, has secured long-term power purchase agreements with Meta Platforms and Microsoft, indicating the sector's alignment with AI-driven growth [7] - Talen Energy has also established a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon for an AWS data center, further showcasing the sector's relevance in the AI landscape [7] Investment Considerations - While not the highest-yielding fund, the Vanguard Utilities ETF is considered a smart investment for certain investors, particularly in the context of potential interest rate cuts [8]

Summary of U.S. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) - **Forecast**: U.S. BESS deployments expected to grow from 54 GWh in 2025 to 88 GWh in 2030, representing a 10% CAGR [1][9][14] Key Insights Growth Drivers - **Utility-Scale Visibility**: Strong project pipeline with 19 GW of planned inventory for 2025 and 32 GW through Q3 2027, with over 80% of next four quarters' additions already under construction [1][14][20] - **Interconnection Queue**: 356 GW of BESS interconnection requests expected to support growth from 2028 to 2030, even after applying a 70-80% reduction for historical operational rates [1][35] Data Center Demand - **Emerging Demand**: Data centers are increasingly integrating BESS for load flexibility and diesel replacement, with Wood Mackenzie tracking 34 GW across 12 U.S. sites, representing a potential one-third of the utility-scale forecast for 2026-30 [2][10][46][49] Supply Chain Dynamics - **Bifurcation Risks**: FEOC restrictions starting in 2026 complicate supply chains linked to China, with Korean suppliers emerging as credible alternatives. LG Energy Solution (LGES) is scaling up ESS capacity significantly [3][62][76] - **Tariff Impacts**: Tariffs on Chinese cells have fluctuated, impacting project economics, but the threat of re-escalation remains a concern [62][63] Economic Competitiveness - **Cost Analysis**: Utility-scale solar LCOE averages $50/MWh, and adding 4-hour storage raises it to ~$101/MWh, competitive with gas turbine costs [4][62] - **Domestic Content Incentives**: The 45X manufacturing tax credit and domestic content requirements are critical for maintaining project economics, with increasing thresholds from 2026 onward [79][81] Alternative Chemistries - **Emerging Technologies**: While LFP remains dominant, alternative chemistries like zinc-hybrid and sodium-ion are gaining traction for specific applications, particularly where duration and compliance with FEOC rules are critical [5][87][88] Additional Considerations - **Residential Market**: A forecasted decline in residential storage in 2026 due to the phaseout of the 25D residential solar tax credit, followed by a recovery driven by higher attachment rates [55][56] - **C&I Market**: The commercial and industrial (C&I) storage market is expected to grow at a 17% CAGR, albeit from a small base, with California being the primary market [61] Conclusion The U.S. BESS market is poised for significant growth driven by utility-scale projects, data center demand, and evolving supply chains. However, challenges such as regulatory changes, tariff impacts, and competition from alternative technologies will shape the landscape moving forward.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the new industrial sector, particularly focusing on data centers and energy infrastructure, driven by the increasing demand for AI and cloud services. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in data center capacity in Europe, expected to double due to rising demand from new cloud services. In the U.S., residential electricity prices rose by 7.4% year-on-year in September, indicating a tightening energy market [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory clarity from FERC regarding the connection of large data centers to the grid, stressing that they should only connect when grid reliability is assured [1][3]. - The U.S. energy market is experiencing a shift, with a notable increase in electricity demand driven by industrial returns, AI data center construction, and decarbonization efforts [5][9]. Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - Data center vacancy rates in North America have reached a historic low of 1.6%, with significant price increases for data center cabinets due to high demand and limited power supply [8]. - The U.S. Department of Energy is pushing for the construction of data centers on federal land as part of its AI strategy, which includes significant investments in energy infrastructure [9][10]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index in the U.S. increased by 5.49% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month as of September 2025, reflecting strong demand in the energy sector [15][17]. - The report notes that the U.S. electricity demand is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating an increase of 15.8% by 2029 [23][27]. Global Energy Industry - The wholesale electricity prices in the U.S. have shown significant fluctuations, with the average retail electricity price reaching 14.23 cents/kWh, a 7% increase year-on-year [3][29]. - The report indicates that the U.S. is investing heavily in transmission infrastructure, with over $50 billion approved for new transmission expansions [27][28]. Global New Materials - The report tracks the uranium spot price at $75.80 per pound, with a slight decrease of 5% month-on-month, while the long-term price remains at $86.00 per pound [4]. Key Company Insights and Comments - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in AI power operations and energy equipment, such as Entergy, Talen Energy, and Oklo, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing energy transition [5][42]. - Companies like GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are expanding their manufacturing capabilities to meet the growing demand for energy infrastructure [44][45].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the nuclear power industry, particularly in the U.S., with a focus on companies involved in nuclear fuel supply, equipment manufacturing, and power operations [9][16]. Core Insights - The U.S. government has signed a cooperation agreement with Westinghouse Electric to build nuclear reactor projects valued at no less than $80 billion, indicating significant investment in the nuclear sector [1][11]. - The commercialization of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in the U.S. is expected to accelerate by 2025, driven by the demand from AI tech giants' data centers, regulatory support, and demonstration projects from leading SMR companies [2][12]. - The U.S. nuclear supply chain is heavily reliant on foreign suppliers for critical components and fuel, which presents both challenges and opportunities for domestic manufacturers and foreign suppliers from Japan, South Korea, and Europe [3][13]. - The surge in demand from AI data centers is revitalizing interest in nuclear power as a stable, low-carbon energy source, highlighting the urgency for new nuclear builds to meet rising electricity demands [4][14]. Summary by Sections Upstream - Focus on companies with scarce licenses and limited capacity, such as Cameco and Centrus Energy, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for nuclear fuel [9][16]. Midstream - Attention should be given to nuclear equipment manufacturers like BWX Technologies, Doosan Enerbility, and NuScale Power, which are expected to see growth as demonstration projects come online [9][16]. Downstream - Emphasis on nuclear power operators such as Talen Energy and Entergy, which are likely to have visible operating cash flows and benefit from the increasing reliance on nuclear energy [9][16].

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's extensive experience as a Merchant Seaman and a growing interest in investing over the past 15 years, particularly in Tech stocks due to an engineering background [1] - The author attributes much of their investment knowledge to The Motley Fool, indicating a reliance on established investment resources for insights [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure stating that the author has no current stock or derivative positions in any mentioned companies and has no plans to initiate any such positions in the near future [1] - The article emphasizes that the views expressed are personal opinions and not influenced by any compensation or business relationships with the companies mentioned [1]