加美领导人通话讨论贸易与安全关系 中新社北京8月22日电 渥太华消息：加拿大总理办公室当地时间21日发表声明称，加总理卡尼当天与美 国总统特朗普通电话，双方进行"富有成效且广泛的交谈"。加拿大广播公司称，这是本月1日美国上调 加拿大输美商品关税税率以来，两国领导人首次公开承认通话。 声明称，卡尼与特朗普讨论了当前加美经济与安全关系中的贸易挑战、机遇及共同优先事项，双方还讨 论了支持乌克兰和欧洲实现"长期和平与安全"。两国领导人同意近期再次通话。 据加拿大《环球邮报》等媒体援引加方消息人士的话称，此次通话是卡尼主动提出的，通话"时间较长 且内容充实"，但消息人士未透露更多细节。《环球邮报》称，此次通话表明加美仍在进行贸易谈判。 据彭博社报道，特朗普政府官员证实两国领导人通话，并表示双方讨论了贸易问题，但未进一步说明具 体细节。 特朗普当地时间7月31日签署行政令，从8月1日起将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。卡尼 随后对此表示失望。据《环球邮报》报道，关税税率上调后，加拿大谈判团队一直与美方团队保持联 系。同时，卡尼致力于深化加拿大与其他国家的贸易关系。彭博社报道称，预计卡尼将于今年9月访问 墨西哥 ...

美联储古尔斯比：关税上调似乎远未结束，存在通胀持续的风险。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated that the Eurozone's economic growth is expected to slow in the third quarter due to the fading "front-running" effect from prior tariff expectations and the impact of new tariffs [1] Economic Impact - The "front-running" effect refers to importers placing orders early and increasing inventory in anticipation of tariff hikes, which temporarily boosts trade and output, followed by a subsequent decline [1] - In the first quarter of this year, sectors with high exports to the U.S., such as pharmaceuticals, experienced growth that exceeded expectations [1] - The slowdown in Eurozone economic growth was already evident in the second quarter of this year [1] Tariff Changes - According to a recent trade agreement between the EU and the U.S., tariffs on Eurozone goods are expected to be higher than those prior to April, with the effective average tariff rate from the U.S. on Eurozone goods projected to be between 12% and 16% [1] - This new tariff level is lower than the previously considered scenario of "over 20%" but still presents uncertainty, particularly regarding specific tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [1] Labor Market and Trade Relations - The labor market in the Eurozone remains generally robust, with an unemployment rate of 6.2% as of June [1] - While the U.S. continues to be a significant trading partner for Europe, there is a call for Europe to diversify its trade relationships to enhance resilience and leverage its export-oriented economy [1]

Economic Data Summary - In July, economic data showed that external demand was stronger than internal demand, with production growth outpacing demand growth. The industrial output and service production index in constant prices grew by 5.7% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, while prices remained at a low level for the year [2][3][4] - The retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month. Fixed asset investment for the first seven months saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.2 percentage points to 1.6%, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showing a downward trend [3][4] Automotive Sales Trends - In early August, automotive sales turned negative, with retail sales of passenger cars from August 1 to 10 reaching 452,000 units, a 4% decrease compared to the same period last year. Factors contributing to this decline included reduced "trade-in" incentives, diminished promotional discounts, and lower loan rebates [6][10] - The outlook for automotive sales remains weak, although the third batch of subsidy funds was distributed in late July, which may gradually restart "trade-in" programs in some regions. However, the intensity of price wars in the automotive sector has decreased, leading to higher consumer purchase costs and sustained high levels of consumer hesitation [10] U.S. Tariff Increases - In June, the U.S. customs reported an increase in tariff rates, with the overall tariff rate rising to 10%. The tariff rate on China decreased from 48.2% in May to 40.3% in June, with expectations that it will stabilize around 40% moving forward, which is an increase of 29.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [11][13] - Tariff rates for other major trading partners, such as Vietnam, Japan, and Germany, also increased to 9.3%, 15.9%, and 11.8%, respectively, which may further suppress U.S. import demand [14] South Korea Export Data - In early August, South Korea's export data showed a decline, with exports falling by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten days of August, following two months of positive growth. This decline is attributed to the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on South Korean goods [15][17] - The number of container ships departing from China to the U.S. remained low, while the number heading to Vietnam also began to decline in early August. However, China's port cargo throughput and container throughput showed a significant rebound in the second week of August, with week-on-week increases of 10.9% and 19.6%, respectively [17] Commodity Price Trends - The prices of major commodities showed a weak performance in early August, with 18 out of 50 tracked production materials experiencing price increases, while 29 saw declines. Notably, coking coal and coke prices led the gains, while agricultural products and non-ferrous metals performed poorly [17]

Economic Data Summary - July economic data indicates that external demand is stronger than internal demand, production is stronger than consumption, and constant price metrics outperform current price metrics[4] - In July, industrial output and service production indices grew by 5.7% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, with GDP growth estimated at around 5% in constant prices[4] - Retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month, while fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Automotive Market Insights - In August, national retail sales of passenger cars reached 452,000 units from August 1-10, a 4% decrease compared to the same period last year[7] - The automotive market has been negatively impacted by reduced "trade-in" policy effectiveness and declining promotional efforts, leading to a 1.5% year-on-year drop in July retail sales[7] Trade and Tariff Developments - In June, the U.S. tariff rate increased to 10%, with tariffs on Chinese goods decreasing from 48.2% in May to 40.3% in June[11] - The tariff rates for major trading partners like Vietnam, Japan, and Germany also increased, potentially suppressing U.S. import demand[11] Commodity Price Trends - Overall commodity prices showed weakness in early August, with coking coal and coke prices rising by 9.6% and 3.6% respectively compared to late July[16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound to around -3% year-on-year due to low base effects from the previous year[16] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Ongoing geopolitical changes and international market fluctuations could continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]

每经编辑｜金冥羽 8月15日，瑞士手表品牌Swatch（斯沃琪）因一张"眯眯眼"宣传图引发争议。 照片中，一位男模特摆出夸张的"眯眯眼"造型，这一形象被认为具有对东亚人的种族歧视意味。对此，不少中国消费者表示强烈抗议。 8月16日，Swatch发布致歉声明称，公司注意到近期对于Swatch ESSENTIALS系列图片中模特形象的关注。公司对此事高度重视，并已在第一时间在全球 范围内删除所有相关资料。对于由此造成的冒犯和困扰，深表歉意。 公开信息显示，斯沃琪集团是全球最大的钟表制造和分销集团之一，除了基础款Swatch，旗下手表还包括浪琴、天梭、欧米茄、宝玑等知名品牌。 斯沃琪集团在7月17日公布的2025上半财年报告显示，公司实现销售额30.59亿瑞士法郎，同比下滑了11.2%；净利润从1.47亿瑞士法郎大幅下滑88%至1700 万瑞士法郎；净利润率为0.6%，去年同期为4.3%。斯沃琪集团将销售额的下滑归因于中国市场拖累。 | | | Change in % | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1st half | 1st half | | Total at constant ...

8月15日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜因美元走软小幅上涨，市场观望美俄首脑会晤结果。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月15日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫称，俄美双方的谈判全程或需至少6 至7小时。其中普京与特朗普的一对一闭门会谈，双方助理将在场。 他强调，俄罗斯方面希望普京与特朗普在阿拉斯加的会晤能够取得成果。 俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普定于当地时间8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇举行会晤，这将是 俄美领导人2021年6月以来的首次面对面会晤。 伦敦时间8月15日17:00(北京时间8月16日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨7.5美元，或0.08%，收报每吨 9,773.5美元。 随着数据密集的一周接近尾声，美元走软支撑市场。 美元贬值使得以美元计价的商品对使用其他货币的买家来说价格降低。 上海期货交易所周五的数据显示，本周铜库存再次上升，过去两周增加了20%，达到86,361吨，为两个 月来的最高水平。 美国COMEX期铜上涨0.4%，至每磅4.50美元，使COMEX期铜对LME期铜的溢价达到每吨137美元，或 1.4%。 花旗（Citi）将未来三个月的铜价预估从之前的每吨8,800美元上调至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising tariffs on consumer prices in the U.S., highlighting that while overall inflation remains moderate, specific goods are experiencing significant price increases due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][9]. Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June, indicating a growing inflationary pressure [3][5]. - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was 0.3%, the largest since January [3]. Group 2: Price Increases in Specific Goods - Prices for non-food and non-energy commodities rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month in July, with notable increases in footwear (1.4%) and furniture (0.9%) [6][8]. - The price of shoes is projected to rise by 40% and clothing by 38% in the short term due to tariffs, with long-term increases expected to be 19% and 17%, respectively [6][12]. Group 3: Tariff Impact on Imports - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to reach 17.3%, the highest since 1935, with predictions that it could exceed 18% [11][12]. - The tariffs are anticipated to lead to a decline in global trade over the next four quarters, with significant impacts on the prices of imported goods [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that while tariffs have not yet caused significant overall inflation, they are contributing to rising prices for imported goods such as furniture, toys, and appliances [9][12]. - The gradual impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to manifest as a slow decline in purchasing power rather than an immediate inflation spike [12][13].

Core Insights - The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported a significant decline in U.S. imports, with a year-over-year decrease of 8.4% in June, exceeding expectations due to tariff increases implemented by the Trump administration [1] - Effective from August 7, several tariffs have been enacted, with some product tax rates reaching as high as 50% [1] - NRF forecasts a 5.6% decline in total imports for the year 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - NRF Vice President Gold expressed concerns that tariffs are driving up prices and will lead to a reduction in the variety of goods available, urging for trade agreements to lower tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. tariff increase on Indian goods, particularly a 25% additional tariff on textiles and apparel, is expected to significantly impact India's export competitiveness, especially in the labor-intensive textile sector [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Indian Textile and Apparel Industry - The U.S. is the largest market for Indian textiles and apparel, with these products being a major export category for India [1]. - The textile and apparel sector is projected to be one of the most affected industries due to the increased tariffs, with potential export declines of $2.5 to $3 billion [1][2]. - Indian exporters are facing difficulties due to the high tariffs, which could lead to a loss of competitive advantage in the U.S. market [1]. Group 2: Responses from Industry Leaders - Some companies are experiencing order cancellations and are attempting to expedite shipments before the full 50% tariff is implemented [2]. - Companies are considering relocating production to countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Guatemala to mitigate tariff impacts [1]. - Industry leaders are calling for direct financial support from the Indian government to help small and medium-sized enterprises survive the adverse effects of the tariffs [2].