136 号文转变行业发展逻辑，利好因素累积绿电有望否极 泰来 20250613 摘要 绿电板块市净率已降至 0.7-0.8 倍，但 136 号文稳定存量项目收益预期， 通过差价结算机制保障燃煤标杆电价收入，同时增量项目市场化交易促 使运营商投资更加谨慎，有望改善现金流。 绿电运营商应收账款普遍偏高，补贴问题若能解决，将带来较大向上弹 性。全国化债背景下，专项资金或可解决历史欠款，北京和广州已成立 结算服务公司，通过融资发放资金。 绿电的绿色价值是其核心竞争力，中国绿证体系逐步完善，获得国际认 可，并通过强制消费体系绑定，对高耗能行业提出最低消纳比例要求， 丰富绿电脱销场景。 2025 年初发布的 136 号文明确新能源上网电量全部进入市场化交易， 并通过场外差价结算机制稳定存量项目收益预期，增量项目则通过竞价 形成机制电价，竞争加剧。 光伏行业内卷整治表明高层推进增量项目有序建设的态度，运营商将选 择度电成本更低的项目，资本开支趋于理性，有助于改善绿电公司现金 流，提高分红和股东回报。 Q&A 绿电行业的估值现状如何？有哪些主要因素影响了当前的估值？ 经过近三年的回调，绿电板块的估值已经基本回落到 2020 ...

2011-2015 年熊市周期与当前周期的比较 日期：2025年7月 研究所·李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 研究所·金园园（联系人） 从业资格号：F03134630 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint —硅铁篇 宏观经济疲软，工业产能过剩背景下，供需平衡存在必要性 ◼ 全球经济复苏乏力，中国经济增速放缓： 中国GDP增速放缓，宏观经济较为谨慎 2011-2015年，全球金融危机余波持续， 欧美经济复苏缓慢；中国GDP增速从 2011年的18.2%降至2015年的7.1%，经 济结构调整（如去产能和环保升级）直 接影响钢铁产业链。供给侧改革后期， 淘汰落后产能并将有效产能兼并重组政 策，提高粗钢生产量级，有效推动硅铁 需求的复苏。 ◼ 2020年至今，受到全球疫情因素的冲击， 工业与制造业需求断崖式收缩，钢铁生 产短暂影响停滞。2021年后期，受到基 建和出口需求的影响，钢铁需求增速呈 现V型反弹，供应表现相对平稳，支撑硅 铁需求，但拉动相对有限。 资料来源 Mysteel ，铁合金在线： ，国泰君安期货 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] ESG 投资评级 —— 上次评级 —— 欧盟委员会提出《欧洲气候法》修订案，设定 2040 年减排目标 [Table_Industry] ESG 周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 05 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 欧盟委员会提出《欧洲气候法》修订案，设定 2040 年减排目标 [T ...

供给侧改革关键节点与煤炭、钢铁期货价格波动时间线 2021-2023年,能 耗双控政策采化, 煤炭、有色供给 百年 超星,PPI回升, 3288.2 5414 工业景气度改善。 2016年2月,《天 4656 2729.3 于化解钢铁煤炭过 剩产能的意见》设 定钢铁、煤炭去产 能里化目标,行政 与市场手段结合。 2025年7月,中央 2170.5 财经委会议提出 "防内卷",治 年10月,日 2015年11月,中央财 理低价音争,排 百次明确能想保 经领导小组十一次会 释放煤矿先进产能 议首次提出"供给侧 高质量 的经 2022年2月,俄马冲 1611.7 结构性改革" 突加剧能源危机 2015年12月,中央经 2022年3月,美国盲 T作会议细化"二 布释放1.8亿桶原油 补" 任务 储备 2024年3月,《曲廣 20年7月起,疫情直 作报告》设定单位GDP 2384 1052.8 次复苏,大宗商品供 能耗降低目标(2.5%) 2017-2018年,产能出 音音歌 2024年5月,《节能降 843.0 清完成,钢铁、煤炭产 2020年9月,"双張" 碳行动方案》,分行 能利用率回升至合理水 目标提出,改革重 ...

Group 1 - The next five years mark the beginning of a comprehensive market entry for renewable energy in China, with expectations for continued growth beyond coal-fired power generation capacity [1][11] - China's energy development is transitioning towards a safe, efficient, and clean green direction, with a strong emphasis on reducing carbon emissions [1][3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a 13.5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP and an 18% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions [3][4] Group 2 - Despite the acceleration in energy transition, challenges remain, particularly regarding energy security and the "impossible triangle" of energy security, economy, and cleanliness [2] - The transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control is a significant policy shift, emphasizing the role of carbon emissions in the energy revolution [5][6] - The focus on carbon emissions will facilitate the development of non-fossil energy sources and alleviate constraints faced by enterprises using clean energy [6] Group 3 - By 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption is expected to reach around 20%, with non-fossil energy generation accounting for approximately 39% of total generation [7][8] - As of July 2024, the installed capacity of wind and solar energy reached 1.206 billion kilowatts, surpassing coal power capacity [8] - The rapid development of renewable energy poses challenges for the energy system, necessitating enhanced flexibility and security measures [8][10] Group 4 - The upcoming five years will see renewable energy fully entering the electricity market, with expectations for continued growth in installed capacity [11][12] - The transition to a carbon emission control system will require significant efforts to manage the increasing pressure on the electricity grid due to higher renewable energy integration [12][13] - Climate change and extreme weather events are becoming critical factors in electricity planning, necessitating a new adaptive planning approach for the energy system [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "low inventory, low price, low demand, high supply elasticity" weak equilibrium state, with future trends dependent on the intensity of production cuts and the speed of policy implementation [1][2] Supply - The government is continuing to implement crude steel production controls and promote "dual control of carbon emissions" [3] - Strict enforcement of production capacity replacement is mandated, prohibiting the addition of new steel production capacity under various pretenses [3] Demand - The proportion of steel used in manufacturing has been steadily increasing, nearing 50%, supported by stable traditional manufacturing and rapid growth in high-end manufacturing and strategic emerging industries [4] - The forecast for steel demand in manufacturing is projected to reach 440 million tons by 2025, driven by supportive monetary and fiscal policies [4] Profit - If a production cut of 50 million tons is implemented, the annual crude steel output would be 955 million tons, leading to a potential recovery in industry profitability with gross profit per ton expected to reach around 400 yuan [5][6] - If production remains at last year's levels, a rebound in output in the second half of the year could lead to oversupply and further profit decline [6] Investment Recommendations - For ordinary steel investments, focus on high dividend and high yield companies, particularly leaders in various downstream sectors, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [7] - For special steel and new materials, the demand for high-end special steel is expected to grow rapidly, with companies like Nanjing Steel and Jiu Li Special Materials being highlighted for potential investment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the 2025 Hunan Province Energy Conservation Promotion Week aims to enhance public awareness and capabilities in energy conservation and carbon reduction, promoting a green and low-carbon lifestyle and production method [2]. Group 1: Achievements in Energy Conservation - Hunan Province has exceeded the national energy consumption intensity reduction targets for the 14th Five-Year Plan ahead of schedule, receiving national commendation for its performance in energy-saving goals [3]. - By the end of 2024, the installed capacity of renewable energy in Hunan is expected to reach 49.27 million kilowatts, accounting for 63.7% of the province's total power generation capacity [3]. - The province has cultivated 271 national-level green factories, 27 green parks, and 30 green supply chain management enterprises, with a green public transport ratio of 98% [3]. Group 2: Policy and Future Plans - In 2024, Hunan aims to secure 13.77 billion yuan in special national bonds for equipment updates and trade-in programs, promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development in industries [3]. - The province plans to focus on carbon emission control and is preparing for the 15th Five-Year Plan's energy-saving initiatives, ensuring robust energy support for high-quality development [4].

公司紧抓政策机遇，构建全链条碳市场服务体系，提供 碳核查、碳资产、碳交易、碳足迹等"碳排双控"服务；同 时依托区位优势支撑国际绿色能源组织运营，参与标准编制 与认证服务，研究境内外低碳认证体系，并联合探索动态电 碳因子在成员企业"碳足迹"中的应用。 4.人工智能的业务布局有哪些？ 证券代码：002063 证券简称：远光软件 远光软件股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号： 20250012 投资者关系活动 类别 特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 □媒体采访 业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 □现场参观 其他 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 世邦私募基金崔卫国、于千可 时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日 地点 线上会议 上市公司接待人 员姓名 副总裁、董事会秘书袁绣华，证券事务代表刘多纳 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 1. 公司 2025 年发展机遇有哪些？ 2025 年公司将紧抓三大发展机遇：一是数字经济政策红 利持续释放。新质生产力、高质量发展激发技术、管理、数 据等生产要素活力，数字技术的突破扩大了数字业务的市场 空间，各个企业对于数字化的理解更深、需求更强。国资央 企要做强做优做大，在增强核心功能、提升 ...

Group 1 - The city of Qingtongxia is focusing on ecological priority and green development, emphasizing new construction, renovation, and industrial extension to inject new momentum into high-quality development [1][5] - The Helan Mountain Wind Farm project by Ningxia Yinxing Energy Co., Ltd. has successfully upgraded its capacity by 254% through the replacement of old wind turbines with 18 new 5.0 MW units, achieving a total power generation of 32,851.92 million kWh [3] - Qingtongxia has implemented several major renewable energy projects, including pumped storage power stations and wind power, with a total installed capacity of 1.8562 million kW and an annual power generation of 3.076 billion kWh [3] Group 2 - Ningxia Dinghui Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in the development and recycling of zinc-containing industrial solid waste, utilizing a new technology that significantly improves energy efficiency and metal recovery rates [4] - The company can process 180,000 tons of zinc-containing waste annually, producing 20,000 tons of regenerated zinc ingots and achieving an industry-leading resource utilization rate [4] - The company holds over 80% market share in regenerated zinc products in Ningxia and has extended its technology to extract precious metals like gold and silver [4] Group 3 - Qingtongxia is actively implementing the "dual carbon" and "dual control" policies, focusing on technological upgrades to transition traditional industries from scale-speed models to quality-efficiency models [5] - From January to April, the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value decreased by 9.6%, and water consumption per unit of industrial added value dropped by 12.1% compared to 2020 [5] - The city has established four national-level green factories and three autonomous region-level green factories, continuously enhancing the "green content" of its industry [5]

Core Insights - The 2025 Shanghai International Carbon Neutral Technology, Products, and Achievements Expo (Carbon Expo) was held from June 5 to 7, focusing on "Green Electricity, Zero Carbon Future" [1] - The event highlighted the increasing attention on green electricity and green certificates as essential tools for promoting green energy consumption under the national "dual carbon" strategy [1] - The establishment of the Green Electricity and Green Certificate Service Center marks a significant step towards facilitating green electricity consumption and supporting enterprises in their low-carbon transitions [3] Group 1 - The event featured a trade matching segment where representatives from enterprises engaged in in-depth discussions with service providers, enhancing their understanding of the green electricity and green certificate trading process [4] - Industry experts provided valuable insights on policy interpretation, service solutions, and practical innovations related to green electricity procurement agreements [1][4] - The market for green electricity and green certificates is expected to experience significant growth as China transitions from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, creating a golden development window [4] Group 2 - The unveiling of the Green Electricity and Green Certificate Service Center was attended by key officials, indicating strong governmental support for green energy initiatives [3] - Several companies signed agreements for green electricity and green certificate services, marking the official start of collaborative trading efforts [3] - Qikun Technology was recognized as one of the first service points and entered into a strategic partnership with Yuantonghui Energy Technology to explore opportunities in green electricity procurement and compliance [3]