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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and tapping cessation, with overseas raw material prices likely to rise and cost support strengthening. - Demand remains weak. Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a high proportion of European exports are operating at a relatively high level, but domestic sales are slow. - Inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are relatively strong. - From a static perspective, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. Upstream inventory is low and there is a strong willingness to hold prices, but there are issues such as proxy reselling at a loss. - Dynamically, PP's supply pressure is relieved due to more overhauls, while PE's standard product pressure increases and downstream demand enters the off - season [2]. LPG No clear view on price trends is provided in the report. Only price, inventory, and upstream - downstream开工率 data are presented [3]. Urea - Supply is sufficient as the daily output has reached a high level after the resumption of previous maintenance devices. - Demand is weak. Industrial procurement is sporadic, and agricultural demand has limited pulling effect. - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile due to supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak demand. - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the price is expected to oscillate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. - **Glass**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is high. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels. - **Styrene**: The short - term price is relatively strong, but the supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the price is expected to face pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil The recent oil price trend is dominated by news such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US cold snap. Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply losses support the oil price increase. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol The methanol market has a weak supply - demand situation. The inventory in inland factories is being depleted, but high production suppresses the rebound space. Port inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand for MTO is weak. The price rebound is limited [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is still bullish in the medium term. - **PTA**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan/ton and is bullish in the medium term. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term and strong in the long term. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price and processing fee follow the cost side [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of most varieties decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, except for the prices of cup rubber and glue, which increased slightly. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of most contracts decreased, with the exception of the 1 - 5 spread, which increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November 2025, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends. The production of China increased. The tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in December 2025 all increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, while the general - trade inbound rate increased [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads of some contracts also changed. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The PE device开工率 increased, while the PE downstream加权开工率 decreased. The PP device开工率 increased slightly, while the PP powder开工率 decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [2]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most LPG contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased, while the port inventory and storage - capacity ratio decreased. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - main refinery开工率 increased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - production ratio decreased, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased significantly [3]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only slight changes in a few. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, the inventory decreased, and the order days of production enterprises decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of most PVC and caustic - soda contracts and spot products decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry开工率 increased slightly, while the PVC total开工率 decreased slightly. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic - soda downstream industries decreased, while the开工率 of some PVC downstream products increased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda - ash contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The basis increased. - **Supply**: The soda - ash开工率 and weekly production decreased slightly, while the float - glass daily melting volume increased slightly. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased slightly, while the soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new - construction area, completion area, and sales area improved, while the construction area decreased [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and pure benzene changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene contracts and spot decreased slightly. The spreads and cash - flows changed. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flow**: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol and styrene changed. - **Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains changed to different extents [8]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, while the SC crude - oil price decreased. The spreads also changed. - **Refined - Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of most refined - oil products increased, and the spreads changed. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of most refined - oil products changed [10]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads and basis changed significantly. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, while the port and social inventories increased slightly. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - domestic enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, while the downstream - some device开工率 changed to different extents [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PX contracts and spot changed. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PTA contracts and spot decreased. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of MEG contracts and spot decreased. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation decreased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the polyester industrial chain decreased [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly, with a firm basis and a somewhat subdued overall negotiation. The inland supply remained high, traditional demand was weak, and there was short - term pressure. However, under the expectations of spring maintenance and new production capacity, the long - term pressure might ease. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the MTO demand was weak, suppressing the price rebound. The risk premium from the reduction in imported methanol arrivals was gradually fading, and the geopolitical factors still had an impact [1]. Polyolefins (L2605, PP2605) - For PE, the HD - LL spread narrowed, the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) was expected to increase, and demand entered the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. For PP, the supply - demand situation was weak on both sides, but the balance improved compared to the previous period. The weighted profit was repaired, and the far - month futures offered PDH hedging profits [2]. Natural Rubber - The supply in northern Thailand and northern Vietnam was decreasing, and overseas raw material prices stopped falling and rose, strengthening cost support. The demand of some semi - steel tire enterprises with a large proportion of European exports was sufficient, but the overall inventory of enterprises increased, and domestic sales were slow. The inventory in China continued to accumulate. The rubber price was expected to oscillate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton [3]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - The supply - demand of pure benzene improved marginally, but the absolute level of port inventory was still high, and its own driving force was limited. Styrene was strong due to export - driven inventory reduction and unexpected device shutdowns, which drove up the price of pure benzene. However, the spread between styrene and pure benzene was expected to have limited room for further expansion. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand was tight, there was an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space was limited [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the main contract SA605 fell for five consecutive trading days. The supply was at a high level, demand did not improve significantly, and the factory inventory was at a historically high level. The futures price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. For glass, the main contract FG605 fell. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory was still high. The futures price was expected to continue the weakening trend in the short term [5]. Urea - Urea futures oscillated and closed up, and the spot price was generally stable. The supply was sufficient in the short term, and demand from both agriculture and industry increased. The inventory continued to decline, and the price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures fell weakly, and the spot market price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remained, with high inventory and weak demand, and the price was expected to continue to decline under pressure. For PVC, the futures opened low and moved lower, the supply was at a high level, and demand weakened before the festival. The price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but the cost support limited the downward space [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply was at a high level, and demand was weak. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA was expected to weaken. For PTA, the supply - demand was expected to weaken in January, and it would follow raw material fluctuations. For MEG, there was a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation, and the price was under pressure. For short - fiber, the supply - demand was weak, and it would follow raw material fluctuations. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply decreased, and it would follow cost - end fluctuations [8]. Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded. Geopolitical risks eased to some extent, but the instability remained. The temporary shutdown of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan and the increase in fuel demand due to the Arctic cold wave supported oil prices in the short term. However, the supply - demand expectation of crude oil was still weak, and the upward space of oil prices was limited. Brent crude oil was expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars/barrel [9]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose slightly. The refinery inventory ratio and port inventory decreased. The upstream refinery开工率 increased slightly, while the downstream PDH开工率 decreased. The price trend was affected by supply - demand and external market factors [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2605 closed at 2209 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; MA2609 closed at 2232 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The MA59 spread was - 23 yuan/ton, down 21.05%. The port - inland regional spreads increased [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78% to 43.842 million tons, port inventory increased by 1.55% to 145.7 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.51% to 189.6 million tons [1]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.23% to 77.91%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO装置开工率 decreased by 11.22% to 70.03% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2605 closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; PP2605 closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 34 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.37% to 33.50 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 7.85% to 43.10 million tons [2]. - **开工率**: The PE装置开工率 decreased by 2.48% to 81.59%, and the PP装置开工率 increased by 0.20% to 75.62% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of whole - milk rubber was 15400 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 730 yuan/ton, down 8.96% [3]. - **Production and 开工率**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons, and the开工率 of automobile tires (semi - steel) increased by 7.55% to 73.44% [3]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 2.94% to 584897 tons [3]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, up 2.7%. The price of styrene East China spot was 7470 yuan/ton, up 1.4% [4]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 8.3% to 29.70 million tons, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 7.1% to 10.06 million tons [4]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene开工率 decreased by 0.9% to 77.0%, and the domestic styrene开工率 increased by 4.7% to 85.0% [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of glass 2605 was 1039 yuan/ton, down 1.61%; the price of soda ash 2605 was 1163 yuan/ton, down 1.19% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 5.93% to 84.70%, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.92% to 15.01 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69% to 5551.80 million cases, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% to 157.25 million tons [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of urea futures was - 29 yuan/ton, down 26.09% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production was 19.98 million tons, up 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 4.07% to 94.60 million tons [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was 1946.9 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC was 4500 yuan/ton, down 1.3% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry开工率 increased by 0.3% to 89.1%, and the PVC total开工率 increased by 0.3% to 79.1% [7]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 3.2% to 22.6 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 5.3% to 31.1 million tons [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of PTA East China spot was 5015 yuan/ton, up 1.4%. The price of MEG East China spot was 3601 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX开工率 decreased by 1.7% to 89.4%, and the PTA开工率 decreased by 1.3% to 76.9% [8]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased by 0.9% to 79.5 million tons [8]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil was 65.24 dollars/barrel, up 0.49%. The Brent M1 - M3 spread was 1.11 dollars/barrel, down 4.31% [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The temporary shutdown of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan and the increase in fuel demand due to the Arctic cold wave affected the supply - demand situation [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main PG2603 contract was 4069 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The PG03 - 04 spread was - 277 yuan/ton, down 3.75% [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio decreased by 2.77% to 23.2%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 4.89% to 203 million tons [11]. - **开工率**: The upstream main - refinery开工率 increased by 0.34% to 77.24%, and the downstream PDH开工率 decreased by 3.36% to 73.1% [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views LLDPE and PP - PE: HD - LL spread narrows, some full - density plants switch to LLDPE production. There is short - term positive feedback in the spot market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The marginal supply of LLDPE is expected to increase, and demand enters the seasonal off - peak season [1]. - PP: The supply and demand are both weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The balance of PP has improved significantly, and the weighted profit has recovered compared with the previous period [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures rose in the morning and then fell back. The spot was purchased as needed. The basis weakened rapidly. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance plans [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated weakly. The supply is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand situation and may fluctuate weakly without new stimuli [7]. Natural Rubber - The supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yield tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. The demand has a certain boost, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to follow the futures to decline and continue to be weak in the short term [12]. - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has declined, and the supply is high while the demand has slightly decreased. The inventory needs to be reduced, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC: The price fluctuated, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term price is affected by export policies, and short positions should be temporarily on the sidelines [13]. - Caustic Soda: The market is weak. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement. The price is expected to be stable and slightly weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the price follows the crude oil to fluctuate. The strategy is to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [14]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the downstream resistance is strong. The price increase space is limited, and the strategy is to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee when it is high [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and be low - bought in the medium term [15]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to weaken in January, and the price follows the raw materials. The strategy is to short - term fluctuate in the range of 5,000 - 5,300 and low - buy in the medium term [15]. - MEG: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure, and the strategy is to pay attention to the pressure at 4,000 for EG2605 [15]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee should be shrunk when it is high [15]. - Polyester Bottle Chip: The supply and demand both decrease, and the price and processing fee follow the cost. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [15]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the upstream and downstream operating rates have changed slightly. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Crude Oil - The oil price rose. The instability in Iran continues, and the potential supply risk supports the short - term strength of the oil price, but the increase is limited due to the weak overall supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices**: The prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LDPE, etc. have also fluctuated [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 6.66%, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 4.69%. The trade - related inventory of PP increased by 15.52% [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.52%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have changed. The spot prices in different regions have also fluctuated [4]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.54%, and some downstream operating rates decreased [4]. Urea - **Prices**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The production capacity has recovered, and the daily output has reached a high level [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the futures inventory in the factory warehouse decreased by 1.74% [9]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: The production in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rates of some tire enterprises changed [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The prices of glass in different regions and soda ash in different regions have changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash factory inventory increased [12]. - **Operating Rates**: The soda ash operating rate increased, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased slightly [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms have changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PVC and caustic soda in some regions has increased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the PVC and caustic soda industries have changed slightly [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream products such as pure benzene and styrene have changed [14]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of pure benzene and styrene has changed [14]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream polyester products have changed [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory situation of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. has changed [15]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain have changed slightly [15]. LPG - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of LPG have increased [17]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG have decreased slightly [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG have changed slightly [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, etc. have increased, and the prices of refined oil products have also changed [19]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products have changed [19].

Group 1 - The chemical market is experiencing its worst sentiment in nearly seven to eight years, with expectations for 2026 indicating a continued oversupply and a potential decline in price volatility [1] - The chemical market is projected to face a "downward trend" in 2025, with excess pressure from industry expansion becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year [1] - Energy prices, including crude oil, ethane, and propane, have not yet found a bottom, and coal price support has weakened after a rebound [1] Group 2 - The methanol market is expected to normalize due to changes in logistics, with limited domestic supply increases but significant impacts from foreign production on port operations [2] - The polyester industry chain maintains optimistic demand expectations, with a potential increase in operating levels in 2026 and a recovery in profitability, particularly for ethylene glycol [2] - PVC faces historically high inventory issues, with prices dropping below historical records, and the main drivers in 2026 will come from capacity reductions in domestic and foreign supply [2] Group 3 - The main uncertainties for 2026 are related to "anti-involution" and "dual control," with the overall chemical sector lacking sufficient demand and driving forces, leading to a likely decrease in price volatility [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The methanol futures market was volatile and slightly weaker, with the basis slightly weakening and overall trading volume being average. - In December, the port arrivals of methanol were still high, but due to gas restrictions and device failures in Iran, a large amount of production capacity was shut down, and the expectation of reduced imports in the far - month significantly increased. Although there was still inventory accumulation pressure at the port in December, the supply - demand balance sheet was expected to shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. - In the inland areas, the transfer price in Inner Mongolia decreased month - on - month, mainly affected by high production and factory inventory accumulation. The supply was expected to remain stable due to the repair of enterprise profits from falling coal prices, and the demand from traditional downstream industries increased slightly, with new MTO capacity being put into operation. The inland supply - demand pattern was expected to be stable, and the price would fluctuate within a narrow range [3]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin market was characterized by high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. The market was short - sold, and in 2026, the market was expected to face both lower costs and compressed profits, with the price center moving further down. - For PP, supply increased while demand decreased, the valuation of marginal devices was still low, and inventory slightly decreased. For PE, both supply and demand were weak, and some full - density devices switched from LL to HD production, with the marginal supply of standard products decreasing [6]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the geopolitical tension between Thailand and Cambodia had not eased, affecting the local raw material supply in Thailand, and the domestic production areas were accelerating into the off - season, providing bottom support for rubber prices. - On the demand side, the resumption of work in some enterprises supported the overall capacity utilization rate, but due to increasing production and sales pressure, enterprises would maintain production control in the short term. - In the market, some agents replenished inventory moderately to meet annual targets, but it was the seasonal off - season for demand, and the actual market trading was mainly based on rigid demand. The market continued to operate weakly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the off - season demand limited the upward space for rubber prices. The rubber price was expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The spot price continued to weaken. The demand from the float glass end decreased significantly due to the cold repair of multiple production lines, and the photovoltaic end continued to develop. The supply was expected to increase with the trial production of Yuanxing's second - phase project, and the overall demand for soda ash was in a contraction pattern. The price was in a downward trend, and after a technical rebound in the recent period, a short - selling strategy after the rebound was recommended [9]. - Glass: The northern demand decreased significantly, and the mid - and downstream purchasers slowed down their procurement and focused on consuming their own inventory. Some northwest manufacturers had set winter - storage prices, and some mid - and downstream players started winter - storage. The southern region still had some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, the market was concerned about the sustainability of future demand. The high inventory in the trading and futures - cash sectors also pressured the spot price, and the futures market was expected to face further pressure [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation still faced some pressure. Although some regional enterprises reduced their inventory and some downstream buyers were more active, the inventory level was still high, and there was no obvious positive news in the short term. The price was expected to be weak in the next week, especially in the East China region where supply was expected to increase [10]. - PVC: The supply pressure remained this week, but the market rebounded due to the shutdown of overseas devices. The operating rate was expected to decline slightly next week. Both domestic and foreign demand were under pressure, and the demand in the off - season was weak. The cost support was expected to weaken, and the PVC market was expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The domestic petroleum benzene supply was stable, but the supply increased due to the restart of many hydro - benzene devices, and the port inventory was at a high level. The overall demand from downstream industries decreased slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand situation was weak, and the cost support from crude oil was limited. However, the spring maintenance plan was gradually released, and the price might be boosted in the short term but with limited upside potential. The BZ2603 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [11]. - Styrene: The industry profit improved, and some maintenance devices restarted, increasing the overall supply. The downstream industry profit was compressed, and the terminal demand was weak. The inventory of styrene - benzene increased, but some East China factories had export transactions. The price was boosted by the short - term rebound of crude oil and the rise of PX, but there was an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the cost support was limited. The rebound space was expected to be limited [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply was high supported by short - process production, and the maintenance plan might be postponed if the efficiency improved. The PXN spread widened significantly, and the processing fees of downstream PTA and polyester products were further compressed. The terminal demand was weakening, and the polyester industry was under pressure. The price might continue to be strong in the short term but could decline if the polyester industry reduced production substantially [12]. - PTA: The supply - demand situation was not under great pressure in November - December, but the processing fee was compressed. The price followed the raw material PX, and a short - selling strategy after the rebound was recommended, with a long - term low - buying strategy and a long - short spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [12]. - MEG: The high polyester operating rate provided some support, but the overseas supply reduction was offset by sufficient imports, and the port inventory was expected to accumulate. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level, and a reverse spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a short - selling strategy for EG2605 - C - 4100 were recommended [12]. - Short - fiber: The supply was high, and the demand was seasonally weak. The price followed the raw material, and a strategy of short - selling the processing fee was recommended [12]. - Bottle chips: The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the processing fee was expected to be compressed. A strategy similar to PTA was recommended, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [12]. Crude Oil - The international crude oil price rebounded on Monday, driven by geopolitical factors such as the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker and the mutual attacks on energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine. - After the US - Ukraine negotiation, although the "peace plan" draft was completed, the situation in the Gaza Strip was still complex, and the repeated process would affect the crude oil price. The price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel, and the geopolitical situation should be continuously monitored [13]. LPG - The LPG futures prices of different contracts increased to varying degrees. The port inventory decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased slightly. - The market was affected by factors such as international prices and domestic supply - demand conditions, but no specific long - term trend prediction was provided in the report [16]. Urea - The urea futures market was weak, while the spot price was stable. The market mainly executed previous orders, and new orders were purchased cautiously, with a slight decline in trading volume. - India's new urea tender provided short - term support for the futures price. On the supply side, although the industry operating rate decreased slightly due to the shutdown of some gas - fired devices in Southwest and Inner Mongolia, the daily urea production remained at a high level of 19 - 20 million tons, and the supply pressure still existed. - On the demand side, agricultural demand was in the off - season, but the fertilizer reserve demand in Northeast and Guangdong provided some support, while industrial demand weakened marginally. The urea price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 1680 - 1730, and the device restart rhythm and downstream demand progress should be monitored [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 remained unchanged, while MA2605 increased slightly. The MA15 spread decreased, the basis in Taicang weakened, and the MTO05 disk price decreased significantly. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the regional spreads also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86% to 39.114 million tons, the port inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.9 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 1.43% to 161.0 million tons [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.29% to 77.63%, the overseas enterprise operating rate in Shanghai decreased by 5.43% to 60.5%, and the operating rates of different downstream industries showed different trends, with the acetic acid operating rate increasing significantly [3]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all decreased. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 3.65% to 48.8 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.67% to 46.9 million tons. The PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory both decreased to zero [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.30% to 63.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.28% to 42.5%. The PP device operating rate increased by 1.37% to 79.4%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 53.8% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased by 0.34%, the basis weakened, and the prices of other varieties also showed different trends. The monthly spreads between different contracts changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires were stable, and the domestic tire production and export volume increased in November [7]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515,227 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory in the SHFE decreased by 1.02% to 58,968 tons [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The glass and soda ash prices in different regions and contracts showed different trends, and the spreads and basis also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [9]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different regions and contracts changed, and the spreads and basis also showed different trends [10]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory decreased slightly [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries showed different trends, and the operating rates of downstream industries also changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the spreads between different contracts and products also changed [11]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [11]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries showed different trends [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products increased, and the spreads and processing fees between different products changed [12]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester industry chain was affected by factors such as production and demand [12]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates decreasing [12]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [13]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of refined oil products increased, and the spreads between different contracts and products also changed [13]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of different refined oil products increased to varying degrees [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained unchanged, and the port inventory decreased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased slightly [16]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The industry operating rate decreased slightly, but the daily production remained at a high level [18].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority for 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market from both supply and demand sides [10][11] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive tone, with continued implementation of moderate easing measures to lower financing costs and support key sectors of the economy [10][11] - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure on December 18, 2025, with significant adjustments to tax policies, expanding the number of zero-tariff items [10] Group 2 - The report indicates a bearish outlook for various commodities, including methanol, glass, and cotton, while PTA and soybean oil show a bullish trend [5][3] - The steel market is experiencing weak demand, with new housing sales declining significantly and construction projects facing funding pressures, leading to a decrease in overall demand for building materials [19][20] - The iron ore and coke prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and low profit margins for steel mills, with a potential for further price declines [20][22] Group 3 - The report highlights a significant increase in foreign long-term capital inflows into the Chinese stock market, contrasting with the outflows seen in 2024, indicating a positive sentiment towards Chinese assets [11] - The automotive industry is undergoing a major restructuring, with Ford shifting focus from electric vehicles to fuel and hybrid vehicles, reflecting broader trends in the sector [13] - The lithium market is expected to see limited price declines due to strong demand, despite some signs of weakening fundamentals [28][29] Group 4 - The agricultural sector is facing mixed signals, with cotton supply pressures and expectations of reduced planting areas, while sugar prices are under pressure from new sugar supply [33][34] - The egg market is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and limited demand, although there are signs of potential recovery as the holiday season approaches [39][40] - The apple market is experiencing slow sales and high prices, with expectations of continued weak demand due to competition from other fruits [36] Group 5 - The oil market is facing downward pressure due to oversupply and geopolitical factors, with prices expected to remain volatile [40][41] - The rubber market is stable with no significant supply-demand imbalances, while synthetic rubber prices are influenced by raw material costs and cautious purchasing behavior [43][44] - The caustic soda market is showing signs of strength due to favorable market conditions, although overall demand remains weak [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints Methanol - Yesterday, methanol futures fluctuated narrowly, with the basis slightly weakening and overall trading volume being fair. In the port area, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, with shipments slowing down. In the inland area, both supply and demand increased. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at low prices after the reduction in shipments [3]. Polyolefin (LLDPE & PP) - Polyethylene's supply is increasing while demand is weakening after reaching its peak, and inventory remains flat this week. PP shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that the spring maintenance volume will be large, and the balance of the 05 contract is expected to improve. Pay attention to the restocking situation of the industrial chain after the macro - situation improves [6]. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude approaching the $60 per barrel mark. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and oil prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the EIA inventory data, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [8]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Pure benzene's short - term supply - demand is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement. It is expected that the downside space is limited, and the BZ2603 may fluctuate between 5300 - 5600. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is expected to fluctuate between 6400 - 6700 [10]. LPG - The price of LPG futures has increased, and the inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed. There is no clear overall view provided in the text [12]. Natural Rubber - The market is in a short - term stalemate between long and short positions. It is expected that rubber prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [14]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is continuously bottom - seeking. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Glass's spot and futures prices are falling, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [16]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. PVC's supply pressure remains, demand is sluggish, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to continue to be bearish [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX's short - term drive is limited and will follow oil prices to adjust. PTA's short - term absolute price drive is limited, and it may fluctuate between 4500 - 4800. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber's absolute price drive is limited and follows raw materials. The processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. Urea - The overall price of the urea futures and spot market declined slightly on Monday, and the trading atmosphere remained light. The supply is still at a high level, and the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the downstream demand progress and the device restart rhythm [20]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, the MA15 spread decreased, and the basis weakened. Regional spreads also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [2]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates changed [3]. Polyolefin (LLDPE & PP) - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and spreads such as L15, PP15, etc., also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream weighted operating rates changed [6]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices changed, and spreads such as Brent - WTI also changed. Refined oil prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [8]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Price and Spread**: Prices and spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed [10]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industrial chains changed [10]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads such as PG01 - 02 and PG02 - 03 changed. Spot prices and basis also changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery capacity utilization ratio, port inventory, and port capacity utilization ratio increased [12]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main refinery operating rate and some downstream operating rates changed [12]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices, basis, and inter - month spreads of natural rubber changed [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: Production, import, and export data of natural rubber in different regions changed, and operating rates of tire - related industries also changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased [14]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices changed, and basis also changed [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and glass melting volume data are provided, and inventory data of glass and soda ash changed [16]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, and spreads such as V2605 - V2601 also changed [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Operating rates of the PVC and caustic soda industries, downstream operating rates, and inventory data changed [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed [18]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [18]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed [18]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices and related spreads changed, and spot prices in different regions also changed [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea production, inventory, and order data changed [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][5][7][9] 2. Core Views Methanol - Yesterday, methanol futures oscillated narrowly at low levels. The supply in the inland increased with the restart of some devices, but the profits of coal - and gas - based methanol were weak. The traditional downstream demand slightly improved, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, due to gas restrictions in Iran, many devices stopped production, leading to an expected significant decline in imports in Q1 and strengthened inventory - reduction expectations, but current overseas shipments were still high, and there were many recent warehouse receipts registrations, resulting in weak prices. Pay attention to the subsequent trend of MTO05 [1] Polyolefins - The polyolefin market continued to decline, with a pessimistic market sentiment and weak trading. The polyethylene supply is increasing as the operating rate gradually recovers, and although upstream inventory is being depleted faster, it is still higher year - on - year. The profit of PE is relatively good among ethylene downstream products, so there is no obvious drive for production reduction. The polypropylene supply is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion has accelerated, but the overall inventory level is still higher than in previous years. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of the PP production process, and the overall valuation is moderately to low. The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [5] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices continued to fall on Tuesday. Although API data showed a significant decline in US crude oil inventory last week, it was still difficult to alleviate market concerns about oversupply. Geopolitical situations such as the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine peace talks still affected oil prices. The Fed's interest - rate meeting on December 11 may boost market sentiment. It is expected that Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - $65 per barrel in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the announcements of the IEA, OPEC, and the Fed meeting [7] Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the expectation of an increase in overseas supply is rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia may cause market speculation. On the demand side, the production scheduling of tire - maintenance enterprises is gradually recovering, which drives overall output to some extent. However, the shipment rhythm of tire enterprises is slow, and production control behavior still exists, limiting the increase in overall capacity utilization. The market is mainly digesting inventory, and the short - term purchase rhythm has slowed down, with end - users maintaining rigid demand. Overall, the inventory accumulation in Qingdao spot market has slowed down, and due to the geopolitical conflict, the bearish sentiment in the market has converged. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate [9] LPG - The LPG market shows a complex situation. Futures prices generally declined, while some spot prices remained stable or had small fluctuations. The inventory of LPG refineries and ports decreased, and the operating rate of upstream and downstream industries had minor changes. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and international prices [11] Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the operating rate has returned to a high level, and production remains high. The pending orders of soda ash plants have decreased, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern this week, with a significant oversupply. Downstream demand has decreased, especially in the float - glass industry, and the photovoltaic industry is difficult to grow in the short term. The overall demand for soda ash has contracted. Without actual capacity withdrawal or production - load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. The overall situation is still bearish, and the price will continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. Short positions can be held. For glass, the spot price in some areas has shown signs of weakness, and the production - sales ratio has declined. The short - term demand in some southern regions is supported by the year - end construction rush, but there are concerns about the long - term demand. With the decrease in temperature in the north, outdoor construction will stop, and the outflow of glass from the northeast and northwest will put pressure on other regions. The 01 contract will still face pressure as the delivery month approaches, and the high inventory in the middle - stream trade and futures - spot sectors will also pressure the spot price. It is expected that the futures market will still face pressure [13] PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the supply - demand situation still has certain pressure. The operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is at a high level, and the inventory of main downstream enterprises is high. There is no obvious positive news in the short term. The supply in the East China region is still abundant, and the traditional off - season of demand continues, with no obvious boost from exports. It is expected that the price in East China will continue to weaken, and the long - term supply - demand situation still has pressure. The price of caustic soda is expected to run weakly, and short positions can be held. For PVC, the supply pressure remains this week, and the operating rate still has room for improvement. The demand is sluggish, and although the support from soft products is relatively good, the overall downstream operating rate remains low. The traditional off - season from November to January and the reduction of real - estate demand in the north due to winter have a negative impact. Although domestic PVC has a price advantage in exports and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected implementation of anti - dumping duties makes it difficult for external demand to increase significantly. The overall demand has weak support for PVC, the supply - demand situation is in an oversupply pattern. The price is not optimistic, and although the absolute price is low and the futures market has been strong recently, it is difficult to form a continuous upward drive. It is expected to continue the weakening trend at the bottom [14] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, although the short - term impact on supply is limited due to short - process operating rate support, there is an expected supply contraction in Q1 with the planned maintenance of some Asian devices. The demand side is weak due to concentrated PTA device maintenance and seasonal decline in end - demand. The short - term drive is limited, but there is support at low levels due to the expected improvement in medium - term supply - demand. It is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton. For PTA, the device maintenance in December is still concentrated, and the reduction of polyester operating rate is postponed due to domestic and foreign demand support. After the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the export expectation has increased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with a phased repair of the basis. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively loose in Q1, and the repair space of the basis is limited. The absolute price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton, and a long - short spread strategy for TA5 - 9 can be considered. For ethylene glycol, the port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is loose from January to February. However, the high - level operation of polyester production provides support for ethylene glycol demand. At the same time, many domestic ethylene glycol devices have been shut down or reduced production, narrowing the inventory - accumulation amplitude in December. It is expected to oscillate at low levels in the short term, and the EG1 - 5 spread reversal strategy can stop loss and exit. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation remains weak. The supply is at a high level as there is still profit and low inventory pressure. The end - demand is seasonally weakening. The short - fiber price will oscillate weakly following the raw materials. The strategy is the same as that for PTA, and the processing margin on the futures market can be shorted when it is high. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply in December is expected to increase, and it is the off - season of demand. The supply - demand situation remains loose. The main contradiction is the high inventory and weak demand. The price will mainly follow the cost, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The strategy is the same as that for PTA, and the processing margin of the main contract is expected to oscillate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton. The short - term strategy is to short the processing margin [15] Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, some disproportionation devices and individual large plants plan to conduct maintenance and reduce production load, but some devices will resume production. The domestic supply is expected to remain stable. The overall downstream cash - flow has improved, but the increase in device maintenance and future shutdown plans limit the demand. There will still be a large amount of imports arriving at ports, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price drive is weak. The US - Asia arbitrage window theoretically exists. Pay attention to South Korea's export situation. The short - term self - drive of BZ2603 is weak. Pay attention to domestic device changes, and the price may follow the oil price and styrene. For styrene, the planned and unplanned maintenance of styrene devices is expected to increase, but the overall operating rate may slightly increase as the profit continues to recover, and the overall supply pressure may remain. Some downstream industries' operating rates have decreased due to cold air, and the high inventory and profit - decline pressure limit the demand. There will be export shipments in December, and the port inventory may continue to decrease. The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, but due to weak cost support and seasonal decline in end - demand, the upward space is limited. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions. In the short term, the spot market has obvious long - short games, and the futures market may be affected by oil prices and macro - factors. The short - term EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly [17] Urea - The current spot price of urea has shown signs of weakness, and the trading atmosphere in mainstream regions has weakened, with a slowdown in trading enthusiasm. The daily production of urea has significantly rebounded, further intensifying the supply pressure, while the downstream demand is still in the seasonal off - season. The contradiction between weak supply and demand is prominent, which will suppress the urea price in the short term. It is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. If the spot price continues to weaken, the futures price will further decline. Pay attention to the 1620 - 1700 yuan/ton range [18] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closing prices decreased, with declines of - 1.10% and - 1.56% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 11, with a change rate of - 12.50%. The Taicang basis increased by 11, with a change rate of - 366.67%. The MTO05 spread increased by 12, with a change rate of - 7.45%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang changed, with changes of - 0.75% and 0.36% respectively, and the Taicang spot price remained unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.32%, the port inventory decreased by 1.03% (1.41 million tons), and the social inventory decreased by 1.52% [1] - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 0.59%, the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.34%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio decreased by 3.69%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 2.00%. The downstream formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE operating rates had minor changes [1] Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.29%, - 1.46%, - 1.32%, and - 1.41% respectively. The L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LDPE decreased, with declines of - 0.47% and - 1.06% respectively [5] - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 9.80% (4.93 million tons), the PE social inventory decreased by 3.05%, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 8.00% (4.75 million tons), and the PP trader inventory decreased by 7.73% [5] - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.54%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.22%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 0.68%, and the PP powder operating rate decreased by 4.68% [5] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices decreased, with declines of - 0.88%, - 1.07%, and - 1.56% respectively. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads changed. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also decreased [7] - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, and Singapore gasoline increased, while the crack spreads of US diesel and Singapore diesel decreased [7] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, the full - latex basis increased by 21.92%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 3.25%. The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads changed [9] - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in October decreased, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production and export volume in October decreased, and the natural rubber import volume decreased [9] - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 1.49%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE increased by 11.79%, the dry - rubber bonded - warehouse delivery rate in Qingdao decreased, and the general - trade warehousing and delivery rates increased [9] LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 decreased, with declines of - 1.17%, - 1.00%, and - 1.06% respectively. The PG01 - 12, PG01 - 02, and PG01 - 03 spreads changed. The South China spot price and deliverable spot price remained stable or had minor declines [11] - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio decreased by 1.31%, the port inventory decreased by 7.04% (20.8 million tons), and the port storage - capacity ratio decreased by 7.05% [11] - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 0.11%, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased by 0.99%, the downstream PDH operating rate increased by 0.57%, and the downstream alkylation operating rate decreased by 5.25% [11] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2601 price decreased by 1.80%, and the 01 basis increased by 31.03% [13] - **Soda Ash**: The prices of North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest remained unchanged. The soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices decreased, with declines of - 0.71% and - 1.15% respectively, and the 01 basis increased by 4.79% [13] - **Supply and Inventory**: The soda - ash operating rate increased by 0.82%, the weekly soda - ash production increased by 0.83% (0.6 million tons), the float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.40%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged. The glass inventory decreased by 4.68% (292 million cubic meters), the soda - ash factory inventory decreased by 5.35% (8.5 million tons), and the soda - ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.64% (2.7 million tons) [13] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the V2601 and V2605 prices decreased, with declines of - 1.4% and - 1.5% respectively. The V basis increased by 77.4% [14] - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic - soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2%, the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.2%, the alumina industry operating rate decreased by 2.5%, and the PVC downstream product operating rate decreased [14] - **Inventory**: The liquid - caustic East China factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.2%, the liquid - caustic Shandong inventory decreased by 3.5%, the PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.0%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 0.3% [14] Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China MX decreased [15] - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - Flow**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products remained stable or had minor declines. The cash - flows of POY

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw materials may accelerate its decline. With seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and poor terminal demand, multiple short - term negatives are suppressing the price. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Crude Oil - There are more positive factors in the news of the short - term crude oil market, and the oil price is generally strong. However, the main logic of the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the rebound space of the oil price is limited. It is expected that the short - term Brent oil will fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Although the inventory has decreased in stages, the over - supply problem still exists, and the demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. - Glass: In the short - term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, the demand will shrink, and the price will be under pressure [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply pressure remains, and the demand is lackluster. It is expected to continue the range - bound operation and maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [7]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases, but the profit is weak. The traditional downstream demand is supported, and the port is expected to reduce inventory. The price is currently weak [8][9]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply and demand both increase, and the overall valuation is neutral to low. - LLDPE: The supply increases, and attention should be paid to the basis repair near the delivery [14]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand support is limited, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory. The price drive is weak. - Styrene: The supply pressure eases, the supply - demand structure improves, but the upward space is limited due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand [16]. Urea - The daily production increases, the inventory decreases, and the orders increase. The overall supply - demand situation shows certain changes [17]. LPG - The price of LPG futures and spot shows a certain decline, the inventory decreases, and the downstream PDH start - up rate increases slightly [18]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The short - term drive is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to improve, but the absolute price increase is restricted by the oil price. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is tight, and it follows the raw material fluctuations. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to continue to explore the bottom. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is compressed. - Polyester bottle - chip: The supply - demand is loose, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [20]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber remained unchanged, the basis of whole - milk decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, etc. [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while the production in India increased. The tire production and export decreased, and the natural rubber import decreased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, and the出库 rate and入库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [1]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions and different contracts changed, and the basis changed [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions and different contracts changed, and the reference basis changed [6]. - **Volume**: The start - up rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased significantly [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new - start area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different regions and different contracts changed, and the spreads changed [7]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quote & Export Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China increased, and the export profit increased significantly [7]. - **PVC Overseas Quote & Export Profit**: The overseas quotes of PVC decreased, and the export profit decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Start - up Rate & Industry Profit**: The start - up rate of the caustic soda industry decreased slightly, and the start - up rate of PVC increased. The profits of different production processes changed [7]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the start - up rate of the printing and dyeing industry decreased [7]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PVC downstream products decreased slightly, and the pre - sales volume decreased slightly [7]. - **Chlor - alkali Inventory: Social Inventory & Factory Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in different regions increased [7]. Methanol - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [8]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol decreased [8]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The upstream start - up rate increased slightly, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries changed [9]. Polyolefins - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts decreased [14]. - **Futures Contract Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of LLDPE and PP changed [14]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased, and the basis changed [14]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the social inventory of PE decreased slightly [14]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [14]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, and pure benzene changed, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Benzene - Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The prices of benzene - styrene futures and spot changed, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene changed [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of different industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [16]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of urea futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [17]. - **Main Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of the main futures contracts changed [17]. - **Raw Material and Spot Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea in different regions changed [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea changed [17]. LPG - **LPG Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **LPG Outer - market Price**: The outer - market prices of LPG increased [18]. - **LPG Inventory**: The refinery inventory ratio, port inventory, and port inventory ratio of LPG decreased [18]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG changed [18]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, and ethylene changed [20]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [20]. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: The prices of PX and its spreads changed [20]. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: The prices of PTA and its spreads changed [20]. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: The prices of MEG and its spreads changed [20]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [20].