什么是拉尼娜状态，对我国影响怎样，该如何应对？就上述问题，科技日报记者采访了国家气候中 心首席预报员、气候预测室副主任章大全。 第一问：什么是拉尼娜状态，与拉尼娜事件是一回事吗？ 章大全介绍，拉尼娜是指赤道中东太平洋海表温度大范围持续异常偏冷的现象。根据国家标准，将 赤道中东太平洋（170°W～120°W，5°S～5°N）范围内海表温度距平平均值定义为尼诺（NINO）3.4指 数。当NINO3.4指数3个月滑动平均值小于等于－0.5℃时，即认为进入拉尼娜状态。当拉尼娜状态持续 时间大于等于5个月，则判定为形成一次拉尼娜事件。 针对公众关心的"双重拉尼娜"，章大全解释，这并不是指同一年内发生两次拉尼娜事件，而是指连 续两个冬季均出现了拉尼娜事件。此外，近期《自然》杂志刊文指出，近年来"双重拉尼娜"和"多年拉 尼娜"现象频繁发生，与西太平洋海温持续上升有关。 国家气候中心监测显示，当前拉尼娜状态仍在持续，预计将延续至2026年初，总持续时长不满5个 月。章大全指出，该状态发展为拉尼娜事件的可能性相对较低。因此今年冬季出现双重拉尼娜事件的概 率较小。尽管如此，拉尼娜状态的持续仍会对我国气候产生一定影响。 第二问：拉 ...

国家气候中心监测显示，今年10月，赤道中东太平洋已经进入拉尼娜状态。截至12月16日，拉尼娜状态 仍在持续。通常情况下，拉尼娜会导致我国冬季气温偏低，2024年12月至2025年1月，赤道中东太平洋 曾经短暂进入拉尼娜状态，"今冬是否会出现双重拉尼娜""今年会是冷冬吗"等成为公众关注的焦点。 什么是拉尼娜状态，对我国影响怎样，该如何应对?就上述问题，科技日报记者采访了国家气候中心首 席预报员、气候预测室副主任章大全。 第一问：形成拉尼娜事件的可能性大吗? 章大全介绍，拉尼娜是指赤道中东太平洋海表温度大范围持续异常偏冷的现象。根据国家标准，将赤道 中东太平洋范围内海表温度距平平均值定义为尼诺(NINO)3.4指数。当NINO3.4指数3个月滑动平均值小 于等于-0.5℃时，即认为进入拉尼娜状态。当拉尼娜状态持续时间大于等于5个月，则判定为形成一次 拉尼娜事件。 此外，北方和西南部分地区可能发生阶段性低温和雨雪冰冻天气，将对输电线路、能源供给、交通运输 等带来较大影响。阶段性低温也易导致经济林果等遭受冻害，需提前预防。 对于今冬气候趋势，章大全表示，综合判断，我国冬季气温接近常年同期到偏暖为主，但阶段性变化特 征 ...

章大全介绍，拉尼娜是指赤道中东太平洋海表温度大范围持续异常偏冷的现象。根据国家标准，将赤道 中东太平洋范围内海表温度距平平均值定义为尼诺（NINO）3.4指数。当NINO3.4指数3个月滑动平均值 小于等于-0.5℃时，即认为进入拉尼娜状态。当拉尼娜状态持续时间大于等于5个月，则判定为形成一 次拉尼娜事件。 国家气候中心监测显示，今年10月，赤道中东太平洋已经进入拉尼娜状态。截至12月16日，拉尼娜状态 仍在持续。通常情况下，拉尼娜会导致我国冬季气温偏低，2024年12月至2025年1月，赤道中东太平洋 曾经短暂进入拉尼娜状态，"今冬是否会出现双重拉尼娜""今年会是冷冬吗"等成为公众关注的焦点。 什么是拉尼娜状态，对我国影响怎样，该如何应对？就上述问题，科技日报记者采访了国家气候中心首 席预报员、气候预测室副主任章大全。 第一问：形成拉尼娜事件的可能性大吗？ 针对公众关心的"双重拉尼娜"，章大全解释，这并不是指同一年内发生两次拉尼娜事件，而是指连续两 个冬季均出现了拉尼娜事件。此外，近期《自然》杂志刊文指出，近年来"双重拉尼娜"和"多年拉尼 娜"现象频繁发生，与西太平洋海温持续上升有关。 国家气候中心监测显示 ...

（原标题：我国进入拉尼娜状态，今年冬天到底是冷还是热？） 来源：央视网综合央视新闻、中国天气网、潮新闻 拉尼娜现象，指的是赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象。国家气候中心监测显示， 今年10月，我国已经进入拉尼娜状态。 拉尼娜状态到底意味着什么？对普通人的生活又会有哪些影响？气候专家对此做出了解释。 拉尼娜状态≠拉尼娜事件 国家气候中心气候预测室副主任章大全介绍称，气象业务上用"NINO（尼诺）3.4指数"来表征赤道中东 太平洋的海温。一般来讲，当NINO（尼诺）3.4指数跌破零下0.5摄氏度的时候，表示赤道中东太平洋进 入拉尼娜状态。 然而，拉尼娜状态并不等于拉尼娜事件，根据国家标准，尼诺3.4指数需要连续5个月在零下0.5摄氏度以 下，才会被认为是发生了一次拉尼娜事件。 拉尼娜在西班牙语里是"小女孩"的意思。但在天气系统中，它的能量不可小觑。自21世纪以来，"双重 拉尼娜"曾经出现过三次，分别在2000年、2011年和2021年，增加气候异常事件的发生概率。2021年 的"双重拉尼娜"，持续时间最长，峰值期间海温偏低1.3℃，受其后续影响，第二年夏季我国出现了极 端高温热浪天气。 "通常，拉 ...

Core Insights - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has shown an increase of 0.81% as of November 28, 2025, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Hupoo Co., Ltd. (11.62%), Jereh Group (10.00%), and others [1] - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its oil production policy unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 during the upcoming meeting, while the heating season is anticipated to extend due to the late Lunar New Year, leading to higher energy demand [1] - The forecast indicates a potential "double La Niña" condition in 2025, which may result in extremely cold weather, thereby increasing natural gas heating demand significantly [1] Industry Summary - The oil and gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 65.09% of the index, with major players including China National Petroleum (601857), Sinopec (600028), and CNOOC (600938) [2] - The "Three Barrels of Oil" companies are expected to benefit from the deepening market-oriented reforms in natural gas pricing, leading to improved profitability in their natural gas business [1]

点击注册小程序 截至2025年11月21日，布伦特、WTI 原油分别报收 62.51、57.98 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别下跌2.8%、 3.3%。今年以来国际原油供需格局呈失衡状态，给予油市显著压力，就主要产油组织OPEC来看，2025年4 月开始OPEC+计划逐步增产，原计划至2026年9月结束，每月约13.80万桶/日的增产力度，但5至7月增产 力度已经上调至40万桶/日、8至9月上调至55万桶/日左右，计划提前一年结束，10至12月各增产13.70万桶/ 日。4至11月累计增产274.10万桶/日。10月OPEC产量2846万桶/日，较年初增长6.68%。供应持续增长而需 求转弱，全球原油供需关系从之前的供应趋紧转为供应过剩，全球原油供应过剩幅度从4月的50万桶/日升 至10月的200万桶/日。OPEC+计划明年1-3月暂停增产，有望缓解全球原油供需过剩幅度持续扩大，也反 映出OPEC+平衡油价的诉求。 "三桶油"油价下行期业绩韧性凸显，体现穿越周期属性 2025年前三季度，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油归母净利润分别同比-4.9%、-32.2%、-12.6%，Q3 单季 归母净利润分别同比-3.9%、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - The international oil market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to downward pressure on oil prices. As of November 21, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $62.51 and $57.98 per barrel, reflecting declines of 2.8% and 3.3% respectively from the previous week. The OPEC+ group plans to pause production increases from January to March 2026, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply situation [1][4] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC) have demonstrated resilience during the current downturn in oil prices, with their net profits declining less than many international oil giants. For the first three quarters of 2025, their net profits fell by 4.9%, 32.2%, and 12.6% respectively, showcasing their ability to navigate through cyclical challenges [2] - Anticipated cold winter conditions in 2025 are expected to significantly boost natural gas demand, benefiting the natural gas business of the "Big Three." The companies are enhancing market expansion efforts, leading to rapid growth in natural gas sales. The ongoing market reforms are expected to improve pricing flexibility and profitability in their natural gas operations [3] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand - The global oil supply has shifted from a tightening to an oversupply situation, with the surplus increasing from 500,000 barrels per day in April to 2 million barrels per day in October 2025. OPEC+ has adjusted its production increase plans, reflecting a desire to stabilize oil prices [1] Company Performance - In Q3 2025, the "Big Three" oil companies' net profits showed a smaller decline compared to international peers, indicating their strong performance amid falling oil prices. Their production levels and cost control capabilities have allowed them to maintain profitability above historical levels [2] Natural Gas Outlook - The expectation of a cold winter is likely to drive up natural gas demand, with the "Big Three" positioned to capitalize on this through increased sales and improved pricing structures due to market reforms [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the "Big Three" and the oil service sector, alongside favorable conditions for chemical products in the long term. Specific companies to watch include China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, CNOOC, and various subsidiaries involved in oil services and refining [4]

Core Insights - International oil prices continue to rise, with WTI crude oil increasing by 5.03% to $61.440 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 4.91% to $65.661 per barrel, driven by sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia's largest oil companies [1] - The sanctions are expected to significantly tighten global crude oil supply, impacting market dynamics [1] - The upcoming winter is anticipated to be extremely cold due to strengthening conditions for a "double La Niña," which may boost natural gas demand [1] Oil and Gas Market Dynamics - The natural gas apparent consumption from January to August 2025 showed a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1%, an improvement from a 3.4% decline in the first two months of the year [1] - The "Three Barrels of Oil" companies in China reported a 3.2% year-on-year increase in natural gas sales in the first half of 2025, outpacing domestic natural gas demand growth [1] - The marketization reform of natural gas pricing in China is expected to enhance the profitability of the "Three Barrels of Oil" companies as the regulated portion of their sales continues to decrease [1] Stock Performance - As of October 23, 2025, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.92%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as PetroChina (3.15% increase) and Sinopec [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 64.68% of the index, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]

Group 1 - Oil prices continue to decline due to easing regional tensions and demand concerns, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $61.34 and $57.25 per barrel respectively, down 1.2% and 1.7% from the previous week [1] - The IEA forecasts a subdued global oil demand growth of 700,000 barrels per day for 2025, revised down by 40,000 barrels per day from last month's prediction, while global oil supply is expected to increase by 3 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ contributing 1.4 million barrels per day and non-OPEC+ 1.6 million barrels per day [1] - The current global oil market faces risks of oversupply and inventory accumulation, which may continue to pressure oil prices in the short term [1] Group 2 - In response to external uncertainties and oil price volatility, China's three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) plan to increase their oil and gas equivalent production by 1.6%, 1.5%, and 5.9% respectively for 2025 [2] - The three companies are expected to achieve long-term growth through continuous cost reduction and production increase efforts, highlighting their long-term investment value [2] - Natural gas demand has shown improvement since Q2 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% in apparent consumption from January to August, a significant recovery from a 3.4% decline in the first two months [2] Group 3 - As of October 23, 2025, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) increased by 0.48%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as PetroChina (10.01%) and Sinopec (7.51%) [3] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) rose by 0.54%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, and is closely tracking the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 64.68% of the index, with PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC being the largest components [3]

Core Insights - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has seen a strong increase of 1.78%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Dazhong Public Utilities (600635) up by 9.94% and Diweier (688377) up by 9.51% [1] - Rystad Energy's report highlights increasing threats to five critical maritime chokepoints due to regional disputes, piracy, and environmental hazards, which could lead to soaring energy prices and increased transportation costs if operations are disrupted [1] Group 1 - The oil and gas ETF (159697) rose by 2.17%, with the latest price reported at 1.08 yuan [1] - The report indicates that the conditions for a "double La Niña" are strengthening, potentially leading to extremely cold weather in winter 2025, which may boost natural gas demand [2] - Natural gas apparent consumption from January to August 2025 showed a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1%, an improvement from a 3.4% decline in the first two months of the year [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index as of September 30, 2025, include major companies like China National Petroleum (601857) and Sinopec (600028), accounting for 64.68% of the index [2] - The oil and gas ETF closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [2]