9月28日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，就"十五五"时期扩大有效投资听取企 业意见建议。郑栅洁强调，民间投资是反映经济活跃程度的重要风向标，对稳就业稳经济具有重要作 用。"重要风向标"的界定，可以看出对扩大民间投资的重视和希望。 座谈会上，参会企业建议国家在编制"十五五"规划时，进一步突出企业创新主体地位、优化科技创新平 台建设布局、完善投融资机制、加强知识产权保护等，支持企业抢抓人工智能创新发展应用等机遇，不 断拓展民营企业投资空间、释放投资潜力。 同时，参会企业表示将积极参与国家重大项目建设，围绕新技术、新产业、新业态、新模式扩大有效投 资，更好助力经济社会高质量发展。 半个月前的9月12日，国务院常务会议研究部署了进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施，提出要拓宽民 间投资空间，支持民间资本加大新质生产力、新兴服务业、新型基础设施等领域投资。 显然，两次会议的关键词都是"新"，国家政策层面以"新"作为引领，民营企业以"新"作为投资重点方 向。 强调"新"，不仅是为了抵消传统行业投资增速放缓的压力，更体现了中国经济转型升级的逻辑。新兴产 业、新模式往往需要更灵活的机制、更敏锐的市场判断，而民 ...

新型政策性金融工具有望向民营企业倾斜。 作为破解当前投资困境、推动经济高质量发展的关键抓手，新型政策性金融工具迎来新进展。 今年5月以来，广东、江苏、河北、湖南、山东等多个省份的地市级发改委及部分行业主管部门，组织 开展了2025年新型政策性金融工具专题培训暨项目申报培训会议，以期抢抓机遇，精准对接项目和资 金。 国家发改委新闻发言人李超29日在发布会上透露，为促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投资， 国家发改委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿 元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 李超表示，正会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具体项目，后续将督促各地方推动 项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投资，促进经济平稳健康发展。 当前民间投资已连续3个月负增长，新型政策性金融工具有望向民营企业倾斜。第一财经记者了解到， 进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施即将发布，部署拓宽民间投资空间，破除限制民间投资的各种隐性 壁垒。支持民间资本加大新质生产力、新兴服务业、新型基础设施等领域投资。 有望撬动6万亿投资 我国政策性金融工具运用由来已久。比如， ...

Trade and Export - Zhejiang's total import and export value reached 3.68 trillion yuan from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 2.79 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%, while imports were 0.89 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8% [1] - The province's import and export growth rates exceeded the national averages by 2.0, 0.8, and 0.4 percentage points respectively [1] - Mechanical and electrical products exports increased by 9.0% to 1.31 trillion yuan, accounting for 46.7% of total exports [1] - Private enterprises contributed over 90% to export growth, with their total import and export value at 3.02 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase [1] Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.9% from January to August, but investment excluding real estate development grew by 6.7% [1] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.5%, while infrastructure investment increased by 6.4% [1] - Investment in livelihood sectors such as ecological protection, transportation, energy, and water conservancy grew by 6.5% [1] - Equipment and tool purchases saw a significant increase of 10.3% due to large-scale equipment renewal policies [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 308.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [2] - Online retail sales surged by 15.9%, indicating strong growth in e-commerce [2] - Retail sales of quality-of-life products, including wearable devices and home appliances, saw substantial increases, with some categories growing by over 100% [2] - From January to August, total retail sales amounted to 2.51 trillion yuan, a growth of 5.1% [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value of Zhejiang's large-scale industries grew by 4.6% in August, with 22 out of 37 major industrial sectors reporting positive growth [2] - Key sectors such as automotive, instrumentation, and petroleum processing saw significant increases in added value, contributing to overall industrial growth [2] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries also showed robust growth, with increases of 9.4% and 6.7% respectively [2] Service Sector - From January to July, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises reached 2.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [3] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors experienced a revenue growth of 12.8% [3] - Emerging service industries, including digital economy core services and high-tech services, reported revenue growth rates of 13.2% and 11.3% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent policy signals from the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Council emphasize the importance of promoting private investment for sustainable economic development, enhancing investment quality and efficiency, and injecting new vitality into the market [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The State Council meeting, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, highlighted the need to stimulate private investment and expand its scope, particularly in new productive forces, emerging services, and new infrastructure [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to introduce policies to facilitate private investment, including setting minimum shareholding ratios for private capital in major projects in sectors like railways, nuclear power, and oil and gas pipelines [3][4]. - The use of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) is encouraged to transform "heavy assets" into "light securities," allowing private capital to invest in infrastructure projects with lower initial costs and improved exit efficiency [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that private investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year from January to August, but when excluding real estate development, it grew by 3.0% [5]. - Manufacturing sector private investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year during the same period, surpassing the overall private investment growth rate [6]. - In 31 manufacturing sectors, 16 experienced double-digit growth in private investment, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (22.6%) and transportation equipment (16.2%) [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite current pressures on private investment due to complex domestic and international environments, the long-term outlook for economic development in China remains positive, providing support for private investment growth [7]. - The introduction of private capital is expected to broaden funding sources, alleviate fiscal burdens, and enhance the market-oriented operation of major projects, fostering technological and management innovations [7]. - The key to realizing policy benefits lies in effectively implementing and refining these policies to ensure private capital can transition from being merely visible to being tangible and profitable [7].

Group 1 - From January to August, private fixed asset investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous seven months [1] - The decline in private investment growth is primarily due to a 16.7% drop in real estate development investment, which lowered the overall private investment growth rate by 4.5 percentage points [1] - Excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 3% year-on-year, indicating strong investment willingness and capability in the real economy [1] Group 2 - Private investment in the manufacturing sector increased by 4.2% in the first eight months, with over half of the 31 manufacturing categories achieving double-digit growth [1] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a remarkable investment growth rate of 22.6%, while investment in railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing grew by 16.2% [1] - Private capital is actively aligning with industrial upgrading trends, increasing innovation investments, and integrating into the modern industrial system [1] Group 3 - Private capital participation in major infrastructure construction is expanding, with a 7.5% year-on-year increase in private investment in infrastructure [2] - The accommodation and catering industry experienced a 17% growth in private investment, while the cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a 7% increase, reflecting the trend of service consumption expansion and quality improvement [2] - Despite challenges faced by some private enterprises, the long-term positive fundamentals of the economy remain unchanged, providing ample space for private investment [2] Group 4 - Future trends in private investment include a shift towards high-quality development sectors, increased capital flow into new productivity, emerging services, and new infrastructure [3] - Investment models are becoming more diversified, with improved government and social capital cooperation, and the normalization of infrastructure REITs to further stimulate private investment [3] - The investment ecosystem is evolving with large private enterprises leading innovation and small and medium-sized enterprises focusing on niche markets, creating complementary advantages [3] Group 5 - To further stimulate private investment, coordinated efforts are needed across multiple dimensions to ensure that private capital can invest effectively and efficiently [3] - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized addressing key concerns of enterprises and implementing practical measures to expand access and enhance support [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on policies to promote private investment development and establish mechanisms for private participation in major national projects [3]

Group 1 - From January to August, private fixed asset investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous seven months [1] - The decline in private investment growth is primarily due to a 16.7% drop in real estate development investment, which reduced the overall private investment growth rate by 4.5 percentage points [1] - Excluding real estate development investment, private project investment grew by 3% year-on-year, indicating strong investment willingness and capability in the real economy [1] Group 2 - Private investment in the manufacturing sector showed significant growth, with a 4.2% increase in the first eight months, and over half of the 31 manufacturing categories achieving double-digit growth [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a remarkable investment growth rate of 22.6%, while the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors grew by 16.2% [1][2] - Private capital is actively aligning with industrial upgrading trends, increasing innovation investments, and integrating into the modernization of the industrial system [1] Group 3 - Private capital participation in major infrastructure construction is expanding, with a 7.5% year-on-year increase in private infrastructure investment in the first eight months [2] - The accommodation and catering industry saw a 17% increase in private investment, while the cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors experienced a 7% growth, reflecting the trend of service consumption expansion and quality improvement [2] - Despite challenges faced by some private enterprises, the long-term positive fundamentals of the economy remain unchanged, providing ample space for private investment [2] Group 4 - Future trends in private investment include a shift towards high-quality development sectors, increased capital flow into new productive forces, emerging services, and new infrastructure [3] - Investment models are becoming more diversified, with improved government and social capital cooperation, and the normalization of infrastructure REITs to further stimulate private investment [3] - The investment ecosystem is evolving with large private enterprises leading innovation and small and medium-sized enterprises focusing on niche markets, creating complementary advantages [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's private investment is undergoing a structural transformation towards high-quality development, with more private capital flowing into new productive forces, emerging services, and new infrastructure [1][3] - From January to August, private fixed asset investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous seven months, indicating pressure on overall data [1][2] - Despite the overall decline, the structure of private investment shows positive changes, reflecting strong resilience and playing a crucial role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and ensuring employment [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in private investment growth is primarily influenced by a 16.7% drop in real estate development investment, which reduced the overall private investment growth rate by 4.5 percentage points [2] - Excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 3% year-on-year, indicating strong investment willingness and capability in the real economy [2] - Manufacturing sector performance is notable, with private investment in manufacturing growing by 4.2%, and over half of the 31 manufacturing categories achieving double-digit growth, particularly in the automotive manufacturing sector with a 22.6% increase [2] Group 3 - Private capital's participation in major infrastructure construction is expanding, with private investment in infrastructure growing by 7.5% year-on-year [2] - The service sector is also a hotspot for investment, with private investment in accommodation and catering growing by 17%, and cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors increasing by 7% [2] - These trends reflect the confidence of private capital in economic development and the continuous optimization of the investment environment [2] Group 4 - Despite challenges faced by some private enterprises, the long-term positive fundamentals of the economy remain unchanged, providing broad space for private investment [3] - Private enterprises are actively engaging in emerging industries such as green industries, artificial intelligence, and embodied robotics, showcasing strong innovative vitality [3] - Future trends in private investment include a shift towards high-quality development fields, diversification of investment models, and increased collaboration among investment entities [3][4] Group 5 - To further stimulate private investment, coordinated efforts are needed across multiple dimensions, ensuring that private capital can invest effectively and exit smoothly [4] - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized addressing key issues for enterprises, implementing practical measures to expand access, unblock bottlenecks, and strengthen guarantees [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on policies to promote private investment development and establish mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in major national projects [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it discusses the potential for long-term growth and investment opportunities in the context of market adjustments and policy support [3]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-shares trading volume reached 27.71 billion yuan on September 12, 2025, an increase of 0.49 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1600.88, down 2.11% [8][14]. - The report highlights that the cyclical sector is showing strength due to multiple factors, including domestic economic growth policies, global central bank easing, and a rebound in industrial metal demand [3]. - The upcoming change in stock codes for existing companies on the North Exchange, effective October 9, 2025, aims to enhance market recognition and trading efficiency, potentially attracting more institutional investors [3][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On September 12, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares saw a trading volume of 27.71 billion yuan, with 275 companies listed, of which 61 rose, 2 remained flat, and 212 fell [8][16]. - The top five gainers included Chicheng Co. (30.0%), Xinweiling (11.6%), Guoyi Bidding (8.6%), Guangzi International (7.6%), and Hujiang Materials (7.5%) [16][18]. - The top five losers were Guangdao Digital (-14.5%), Donghe New Materials (-7.2%), Naconoer (-7.2%), Juxing Technology (-6.0%), and Fangsheng Co. (-5.7%) [16][17]. Important News - The State Council meeting on September 12, 2025, emphasized support for private capital investment in new productive forces, emerging services, and new infrastructure [2][19]. - The North Exchange will implement new stock codes for existing companies starting October 9, 2025, to improve transaction processes and market efficiency [20]. Key Company Announcements - Night Light announced a plan to invest up to 100 million yuan of idle funds in safe and liquid financial products [21]. - Chuangyuan Xinke reported using 79 million yuan of idle funds for financial products, with a remaining balance of 94.26 million yuan [22]. - Hongzhi Technology received a patent for a smart rice cooker control method based on dynamic temperature curve learning [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In August, China's economic performance was below expectations, with fixed - asset investment, social consumption, industrial added value, export, and service production index all showing less - than - expected growth, and the real estate market continuing to decline. To maintain rapid economic growth, domestic demand needs to continue to play a key role. The government will introduce policies to expand service consumption, promote private investment, and launch new policy - based financial tools [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Content Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.3% and the 1.6% in January - July. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 5.4% year - on - year, narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 2.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3%. In August, manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, and narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year [1][4]. Real Estate Market - From January to August, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 7.3%. In August, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month for the fifth consecutive month, and those in second - and third - tier cities also continued to decline. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 12.5% year - on - year, and the newly - started and completed floor areas also showed year - on - year declines [2][5][7]. Industrial Added Value - In August, the value - added of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. From January to August, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing maintained rapid growth, with an 8 - month growth of 9.5% year - on - year. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 96.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [9]. Exports - In August, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 5.9%. From January to August, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased significantly. Due to the low base in September last year, export growth is expected to be rapid in September, but may decline in the fourth quarter [2][10][11]. Social Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. From January to August, it increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The growth rate of consumer goods related to the trade - in policy decreased, while the growth of improved consumption accelerated. The retail sales of the automobile category increased by 0.8% year - on - year [14][15]. Service Industry - In August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, lower than the 5.8% in July. From January to August, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Information transmission, software and information technology services, finance, and leasing and business services had faster growth rates [16]. Unemployment Rate - In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year. The unemployment rate of migrant workers decreased slightly [16]. Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. On September 12, the State Council executive meeting deployed measures to promote private investment. New policy - based financial tools will be launched to support emerging industries and infrastructure projects [3][18].

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 09 月 15 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1.八部门印发《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，方案提出，目标 2025 年 力争实现全年汽车销量 3230 万辆左右，同比增长约 3%，其中新能源汽车销量 1550 万 辆左右，同比增长约 20%；汽车出口保持稳定增长；进一步规范汽车产业竞争秩序。 详情>> 2.上周，建筑钢材钢厂检修规模明显缩小，复产规模有所扩大。具体来看，检修产线 5 条、较上一周减少 12 条，复产产线 8 条、较上一周增加 6 条，按照轧机日均产量测 算，产线检修影响产量 25.78 万吨，预计本周产线检修影响产量 18.96 万吨。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3220 元（-），北京地区 3160（-10），上海地 ...