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黄奇帆:投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技,还应投生产性服务业
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 02:12
黄奇帆 中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、重庆市原市长 近日,重庆市原市长黄奇帆在2025·青岛创投风投大会上发表了题为《围绕生产性服务业投早投小投长期》的主题演讲。 黄奇帆认为,从国际衡量资本市场成熟度的指标来看,我国资本市场仍有较大的成长空间,把资本市场搞好也是我国推动金融强国建设的一个核心内容。 中国的资本市场总量今年初是70多万亿人民币,现在已经达到100万亿。中国GDP今年会达到140万亿。 我们的资本市场目前占GDP比例只有70%,还有 较大的成长空间。 我们即将进入到十五五规划和2040远景目标期。到2040年中国GDP会翻一番,按不变价格核算,从现在的约140万亿增长到280万亿。如果按可变价核算, 到2040年中国的GDP总量会达到350万亿左右。如果股票市场占GDP的100%-120%, 意味着15年后我国股票市场总量有可能在400万亿左右,较现在100万 亿的水平翻两番。 这是我国发展金融强国的内在目标之一。我们应该在15年后让国民经济的证券化率达到100%,这是推动金融强国建设的一个核心内容。它可以推动社会 资源优化配置,包括支持高科技独角兽企业健康发展;促进老百姓多渠 ...
黄奇帆:推动生产性服务业、高科技产业发展,有利于GDP增长|资本市场
清华金融评论· 2025-09-29 11:36
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's capital market has significant growth potential, as indicated by the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, which currently stands at 70%, suggesting room for expansion [6][11]. Group 1: Capital Market Maturity - A hard indicator for assessing a country's capital market maturity is the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, ideally between 1:1 and 1:1.2. A ratio below 1:1 indicates underdevelopment, while a ratio above 1:1.2 suggests potential bubbles [6]. - China's capital market total was over 70 trillion RMB at the beginning of the year and has reached 100 trillion RMB, with a GDP of approximately 140 trillion RMB, resulting in a market-to-GDP ratio of 70% [6][11]. - By 2040, China's GDP is projected to double, potentially leading to a stock market total of around 400 trillion RMB if the market-to-GDP ratio reaches 100%-120% [6][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article advocates for early, small, long-term investments in hard technology, aligning with recent government encouragement for venture capital and private equity to adjust their investment focus [7][8]. - Currently, about 40% of the total 30 trillion RMB in venture capital is invested in low-risk fixed-income assets, which distorts the intended investment direction [7]. - The ideal investment approach should start at the early stages of company development, focusing on transformative investments as companies grow [8]. Group 3: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is crucial for driving innovation and efficiency in manufacturing, serving as a foundation for high-value unicorn companies [9][12]. - This sector includes ten major categories, such as hard technology R&D, logistics, supply chain finance, and digital services, which are essential for enhancing productivity and economic growth [9][10]. - The productive service industry has shown a significant growth rate of 12.1% from 2021 to 2023, outpacing other sectors and contributing to GDP growth [10][12]. Group 4: Unicorn Companies and Investment Focus - The article highlights that many unicorn companies globally are rooted in the productive service industry, with a significant portion of their market value derived from this sector [12][13]. - Major tech companies like Apple and Microsoft exemplify how productive service industries can drive high margins and value creation, often outsourcing manufacturing while controlling the service aspects [13][14]. - Investment should target various categories of productive service companies, including small specialized firms and established leaders in the sector, to foster growth and innovation [15][17].
深圳市工商联主席张春华:生产性服务业推动新一轮经济增长
Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Langhua" China-Europe Railway Express marks a significant milestone for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, enhancing logistics and trade connections with Europe and contributing to the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - Langhua Group initiated the first China-Europe Railway Express from Shenzhen in 2017, establishing a logistics artery that connects China with Belt and Road countries [1][3] - The company has developed a comprehensive service platform that integrates industrial finance, warehousing, logistics, and testing, serving over 30,000 manufacturing enterprises [2][9] Group 2: Operational Achievements - The "Langhua" train has significantly reduced transportation costs and time, offering a more efficient alternative to sea and air freight, with time savings of 2/3 compared to sea transport and cost savings of 50% compared to air transport [5][9] - The train has gained recognition and support from European countries, facilitating increased trade and cultural exchanges between the Greater Bay Area and Central and Eastern Europe [5][6] Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - The collaboration between state-owned enterprises and Langhua has created a model that combines state resources with private sector efficiency, enhancing the overall logistics framework [6][4] - The company has established partnerships with various stakeholders, including the China Railway Corporation and customs authorities, to streamline operations and address challenges such as cargo supervision and return freight shortages [4][6] Group 4: Future Plans and Innovations - Langhua is focused on expanding its production service platform, with plans to establish service industry parks in Huizhou and Foshan to support Guangdong's industrial enterprises in going global [10][11] - The company aims to leverage advancements in artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies to enhance manufacturing processes and service offerings, positioning itself as a leader in the production service sector [7][9] Group 5: Industry Impact - The development of production service industries is seen as crucial for the evolution of China's manufacturing sector, with Langhua's initiatives expected to drive economic growth in the Greater Bay Area [8][10] - The company emphasizes the importance of integrating various service elements to create a robust industrial ecosystem that supports manufacturing efficiency and competitiveness [9][10]
黄奇帆:抓好生产性服务业,是高质量发展的“关键一招”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 13:14
将生产性服务业作为"投硬科技"的重要方向。 日前,重庆市原市长黄奇帆在"2025·青岛创投风投大会"上表示,我国即将进入"十五五"规划和2040年远景目标期,应该看到,生产性服务业是高质量经济 发展的关键所在,更要对生产性服务业具有GDP的增长极、独角兽的增长极、高附加值装备和终端产品价值增长极的功能有充分的认识。 此前,黄奇帆曾在多个场合呼吁重视发展生产性服务业,强调提高生产性服务业占GDP比重的多重意义。在最新演讲中,他建议,作为我国资本市场发展的 重要力量,以风投、创投为主的各类产业基金不仅要"投早、投小、投长",更应该将生产性服务业作为"投硬科技"的重要方向。 "还有30%左右的资金是投在比较晚的跟投方面。往往企业上市前或已经上市,大家会找各种机会跟投。这属于风险不那么大,且有一定的股权投资内涵的 投资。"他认为,真正"投早、投小、投长"应该是在"青萍起于微末"的"0~1"阶段就开始投资,到"1~100"阶段又有各类转化性投资,等到产业成型的"100~ 100万"阶段有更多的跟投。"这类投得比较好的、特别跟独角兽企业有关的投资,大体占30万亿元各类基金的30%左右。总体上现在情况在好转。"黄奇帆 称。 ...
黄奇帆:投早投小投长投硬科技,不从生产性服务业切入基本上是南辕北辙
和讯· 2025-09-28 08:31
Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of investing in productive service industries, particularly in hard technology, as a means to foster high-tech enterprises and drive economic growth [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry provides intermediate services to other sectors, indirectly promoting economic growth by enhancing production efficiency and resource allocation [2][3]. - This industry includes logistics, ICT services, financial services, R&D, human resources, and legal services, among others [2]. Economic Impact - The productive service industry is a key driver of innovation and profit in manufacturing, contributing significantly to GDP growth [3][4]. - In the U.S., the share of productive service industries in GDP increased from 10% in 1950 to 48% in 2023, while in China, it rose from 10% in 1980 to approximately 30% in 2024 [3][4]. Growth Rates - The average annual growth rate of the productive service industry from 2021 to 2023 was 12.1%, significantly outpacing the overall GDP growth rate of around 5% during the same period [4]. - This sector has been identified as crucial for local GDP growth, with a focus on high-tech industry development [4]. Unicorn Companies - Many unicorn companies are formed within the productive service industry, which is a major growth driver in the U.S. stock market, accounting for 30% of its total market value [5][6]. - Major tech companies like Apple and Microsoft are seen as chain-head enterprises in the productive service industry, leveraging their services to generate substantial profits [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - Investment funds should focus on five types of productive service enterprises: small and specialized firms, leading companies in the sector, hybrid firms like Haier, industrial internet platforms, and chain-head enterprises [8][9][10]. - Early, small, and long-term investments in these companies are recommended to foster the emergence of new trillion-dollar market cap companies in China [10].
市政府党组理论学习中心组开展专题学习:深学细悟《习近平谈治国理政》第五卷,凝聚推动武汉高质量发展的强大力量
Chang Jiang Ri Bao· 2025-09-28 01:17
9月26日,市委副书记、市长、市政府党组书记盛阅春主持召开市政府党组理论学习中 心组专题学习会,围绕《习近平谈治国理政》第五卷集中研讨。市政府党组成员、副市长联 系个人工作和思想实际作交流发言。 会议指出,《习近平谈治国理政》第五卷是全面系统反映习近平新时代中国特色社会主 义思想最新成果的权威著作,是坚持"两个结合"、推进马克思主义中国化时代化的光辉典 范。要深刻学习领悟《习近平谈治国理政》第五卷蕴含的思想伟力、真理伟力、实践伟力, 自觉从党的创新理论中找理念、找思路、找方法、找举措,进一步把准政治方向、扛牢使命 担当,加快推动"三个优势转化",重塑新时代武汉之"重",以实干实绩坚定拥护"两个确 立"、坚决做到"两个维护"。 会议强调,要坚持学以致用、以学促干,切实把治国理政的科学方法论融入奋力谱写中 国式现代化武汉篇章的生动实践。要牢牢把握坚持高质量发展这一新时代的硬道理,坚定扛 起经济大市挑大梁责任,多措并举激发消费潜力,千方百计扩大有效投资,坚定不移推动转 型发展,确保完成全年目标任务和"十四五"规划圆满收官。要因地制宜发展新质生产力,聚 力建设具有全国影响力的科技创新高地,抢抓人工智能战略机遇,加快发 ...
黄奇帆:2040年资本市场总市值有望翻两番
21世纪经济报道· 2025-09-27 11:26
Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on "early, small, long-term, and hard technology" investments in the productive service industry is crucial for promoting financial strength and nurturing high-value unicorn companies in China [3][4]. Group 1: Market Potential - The current total market capitalization of China's capital market is approximately 100 trillion yuan, which is about 70% of the GDP of around 140 trillion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [3]. - By 2040, China's GDP is projected to reach 350 trillion yuan, with the capital market's total market capitalization expected to reach 400 trillion yuan, potentially quadrupling from current levels [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The total amount of various funds, including venture capital and private equity, is close to 30 trillion yuan, with 40% currently invested in low-risk monetary funds and fixed-income bonds, which distorts the investment direction [3][4]. - True investment in hard technology should begin at the early stages (0-1 phase) and continue through various stages of development, ensuring a steady flow of capital from A, B, to C rounds [4]. Group 3: Role of Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is identified as the driving force for innovation in manufacturing, encompassing ten categories including core technology R&D, logistics, supply chain finance, and digital services [4][5]. - This sector is not only a service provider for manufacturing but also a critical environment for the growth of high-value unicorn companies, relying primarily on innovation and talent rather than traditional resource inputs [5]. Group 4: Focus Areas for Investment - Venture capital and private equity should concentrate on five categories within the productive service industry: specialized small and medium enterprises, top 50 professional service companies, hybrid manufacturing firms, industrial internet platforms, and leading companies like Apple and Microsoft [6]. - By adhering to the "early, small, long-term" investment strategy, these funds can support the development of these enterprises, fostering the emergence of high-value unicorns and contributing to the overall prosperity of China's stock market and economy [6].
黄奇帆:“投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技”还应“投生产性服务业”
Core Viewpoint - The development of the productive service industry is crucial for GDP growth, the emergence of unicorns, and the increase in high-value-added equipment and terminal product value [1][3] Group 1: Capital Market Development - The securitization rate is a key indicator of capital market maturity, with a ratio of total market value to GDP ideally between 1:1 and 1:1.2. China's current ratio is approximately 70%, indicating significant growth potential [1] - By 2040, China's GDP is projected to reach around 350 trillion yuan, suggesting that the stock market's total market value could potentially quadruple to about 400 trillion yuan if it reaches 100% to 120% of GDP [1][2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Various funds, including venture capital, private equity, and industrial funds, play a vital role in capital market development, with a total of nearly 30 trillion yuan, of which 40% is currently invested in low-risk monetary and fixed-income securities [2] - The focus should be on early-stage investments in hard technology, starting from the 0-1 stage and progressing through various investment phases to support the growth of high-tech enterprises [2][3] Group 3: Importance of Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is a key driver of innovation and development in manufacturing, serving as the foundation for new productive forces and high-quality economic growth [3] - In modern economies, the value of productive services is embedded in hardware and terminal equipment, contributing significantly to the overall value of products, such as software and patents in a smartphone [3]
规划引领和政策引导“双轮驱动”,威海服务业发展稳健向好
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-09-25 15:25
齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 连宁燕 9月25日上午,威海市政府新闻办举行新闻发布会。威海市委常委、常务副市长李建,威海市发展改革 委党组书记、主任张宗浩,威海市科技局副局长、三级调研员姜新,威海市商务局党组成员、副局长陈 金,威海市文化和旅游局党组成员、副局长刘爱春,介绍全市服务业高质量发展有关情况。 近年来,威海市上下深入贯彻落实中央、省、市关于加快服务业高质量发展部署要求,牢固树立大抓经 济鲜明导向,强化政策驱动、产业强基、消费引领,推动传统服务业转型升级、现代服务业做大做强, 各项工作取得明显成效。 坚持政策驱动构建良好发展环境 通过规划引领和政策引导"双轮驱动",推动服务业运行稳中向好。 一方面,强化顶层设计。用中长期规划引领指导经济社会发展是我们党治国理政的重要方式,近年来, 共编制市级服务业专项规划16个,涵盖科技创新、文旅发展、养老服务等多个领域,各级紧扣规划的时 间表、路线图,持续推动服务业重点行业平稳发展。尤其今年以来,全市服务业发展稳健向好、进中提 质,上半年实现服务业增加值1091.54亿元,占GDP比重达到55.7%;增长7.4%,居全省第1位,分别高 于全国、全省1.9个和1.6个百分点。 ...
两江潮涌处,“渝”见服务新未来——重庆建设现代服务业发展高地观察
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-09-17 02:26
Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Chongqing's manufacturing sector towards high-end services and digitalization, driven by innovation and modern service industries [1][2][5] - Chongqing is positioning itself as a key industrial base in China, with a significant focus on production-oriented service industries that are expected to account for 36% of the economy by 2030 [4][5] - The integration of advanced technologies such as AI and industrial internet platforms is enhancing production efficiency and enabling smart manufacturing in Chongqing [2][3][4] Group 2: Manufacturing and Service Industry Developments - The number of advanced intelligent factories in Chongqing has reached 178, with basic intelligent factories totaling 980, showcasing the rapid growth of smart manufacturing [4] - The production of motorcycles in Chongqing is projected to reach 3.622 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1%, surpassing the national growth rate [4] - The city has become a hub for laptop manufacturing, with over 2,300 supporting enterprises, producing one in three laptops globally [4] Group 3: Digital and Tourism Innovations - Digital upgrades in tourism have significantly increased visitor numbers, with projects like the "Chongqing 2088 Future Journey" enhancing the city's appeal [6][7][9] - The use of drone light shows has attracted over 4 million viewers, indicating a successful integration of technology into tourism experiences [8][9] - Smart tourism management systems are being implemented in various locations, improving service quality and visitor experience [9] Group 4: Open Economy and International Cooperation - Chongqing is recognized as a pilot city for expanding service industry openness, with significant achievements in international standard formulation and innovative cross-border trade initiatives [12][13] - The city has established partnerships with international entities, enhancing investment flows and cooperation in various sectors [13][14] - Projects like the establishment of the Singapore-Raffles Education Group's high school in Chongqing reflect the city's commitment to fostering international talent and educational exchanges [14]