尿素日报 | 2026-03-31 下游刚需拿货 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-30，尿素主力收盘1882元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1900元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1900元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤850元/吨（+0），山东基差：18 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：-22元/吨（-5）；江苏基差：18元/吨（+5）；尿素生产利润300元/吨（+0），出口利润3112 元/吨（+285）。 供应端：截至2026-03-30，企业产能利用率88.35%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为70.05 万吨（-10.84），港口样本 库存量为16.90 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2026-03-30，复合肥产能利用率51.24%（+1.27%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.98%（+6.67%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.24日（-0.05）。 尿素现货出厂报价已达3月指导价，国内正处春耕保供稳价关键时期，尿素现货出厂价稳定为主。淡储3月开始全 面投放。受地缘冲突消息影响大宗整体波动加剧，尿素盘面震荡，现货成交放缓，下游刚需采购。供应端临 ...

策略 价格与基差：2026-03-26，尿素主力收盘1875元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤850元/吨（+0），山东基差：15 元/吨（-12）；河南基差：-15元/吨（-12）；江苏基差：15元/吨（-12）；尿素生产利润290元/吨（+0），出口利润2829 元/吨（-4）。 供应端：截至2026-03-26，企业产能利用率88.35%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为70.05 万吨（-10.84），港口样本 库存量为16.90 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2026-03-26，复合肥产能利用率51.24%（+1.27%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.98%（+6.67%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.24日（-0.05）。 尿素现货出厂报价已达3月指导价，国内正处春耕保供稳价关键时期，尿素现货出厂价稳定为主。淡储3月开始全 面投放。受地缘冲突消息影响大宗整体回调，尿素盘面震荡，现货成交放缓。供应端临时故障增加，供应量小幅 下降。需求端中部地区返青肥接近尾声，华南西南地 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-03-25 新单成交放缓 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-24，尿素主力收盘1864元/吨（-20）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1880元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1880元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： 16元/吨（+30）；河南基差：-4元/吨（+20）；江苏基差：16元/吨（+30）；尿素生产利润315元/吨（+10），出口利润 2840元/吨（-16）。 供应端：截至2026-03-24，企业产能利用率92.19%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为80.89 万吨（-14.87），港口样本 库存量为16.70 万吨（-2.20）。 国内出口政策变动、农需跟进情况、下游采购节奏 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 需求端：截至2026-03-24，复合肥产能利用率49.97%（+4.41%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为59.31%（+5.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.29日（+0.23）。 尿素现货出厂报价已达3月指导价，国内正处春耕保供稳价关键时期，尿素现货 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-03-24 盘面提振成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-23，尿素主力收盘1884元/吨（+43）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1870元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1870元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-14 元/吨（-43）；河南基差：-24元/吨（-43）；江苏基差：-14元/吨（-33）；尿素生产利润305元/吨（+0），出口利润2857 元/吨（+486）。 供应端：截至2026-03-23，企业产能利用率92.19%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为80.89 万吨（-14.87），港口样本 库存量为16.70 万吨（-2.20）。 需求端：截至2026-03-23，复合肥产能利用率49.97%（+4.41%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为59.31%（+5.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.29日（+0.23）。 尿素现货出厂报价已达3月指导价，国内正处春耕保供稳价关键时期，尿素现货出厂价稳定为主。淡储3月开始全 面投放。受煤炭情绪偏强影响，尿素盘面提振，现货成交好转。供应端临时故障增加，供 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-03-20 下游开工继续提升 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-19，尿素主力收盘1859元/吨（+4）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1880元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1880元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：21 元/吨（-4）；河南基差：1元/吨（-4）；江苏基差：21元/吨（-4）；尿素生产利润315元/吨（+0），出口利润2353元/ 吨（-5）。 供应端：截至2026-03-19，企业产能利用率92.19%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为80.89 万吨（-14.87），港口样本 库存量为16.70 万吨（-2.20）。 需求端：截至2026-03-19，复合肥产能利用率49.97%（+4.41%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为59.31%（+5.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.29日（+0.23）。 尿素现货出厂报价已达3月指导价，国内正处春耕保供稳价关键时期，尿素现货出厂价稳定为主。淡储3月开始全 面投放。市场情绪略降温，市场价小幅下调。供应端本周临时故障增加，供应量小幅下降。需求端返青肥接近尾 ...

供应端：截至2026-03-17，企业产能利用率93.29%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为95.76 万吨（-14.05），港口样本 库存量为18.90 万吨（-0.10）。 尿素日报 | 2026-03-18 市场情绪略降温 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-17，尿素主力收盘1878元/吨（-22）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1890元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1890元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：12 元/吨（+12）；河南基差：-18元/吨（+12）；江苏基差：12元/吨（+12）；尿素生产利润325元/吨（-10），出口利润 2348元/吨（+18）。 需求端：截至2026-03-17，复合肥产能利用率45.56%（+8.54%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为53.35%（+3.90%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.06日（+0.35）。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 尿素现货出厂报价已达3月指导价，国内正处春耕保供稳价关键时期，尿素现货出厂价稳定为主。淡储3月开始全 面投放。市 ...

2026 年 3 月 18 日 碳酸锂：震荡格局，关注市场情绪 | | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 155,320 | -4,300 | -7,680 | 4,460 | 22,540 | 56,440 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 173,439 | -58,374 | -52,834 | -271,676 | -358,285 | -570,751 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 308,842 | -1,841 | -23,675 | -30,762 | -20,9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillations [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Urea spot ex - factory quotes have reached the March guidance price, and during the critical period of spring plowing supply guarantee and price stability in China, the urea spot price remains stable. When the urea futures price strengthens, spot traders actively enter the market to purchase, and spot transactions improve. On the supply side, some gas - based and technological transformation enterprises resume production, increasing the supply. The off - season reserves start to be fully released in March. On the demand side, the green - turning fertilizer application is in progress, the compound fertilizer production starts to pick up, and as it approaches the terminal fertilizer use, the market sentiment improves and the sales volume increases. The melamine market sentiment is good, the price rises, the production starts to pick up, and there is rigid demand for procurement. Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the sentiment in the futures market is strong, driving the improvement of spot transaction sentiment, with factory inventories decreasing and port inventories slightly increasing. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp rise in international urea prices, but there is no new news about the current domestic export quota, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On March 16, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1900 yuan/ton (+11); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1870 yuan/ton (0); the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1900 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - particle urea in Jiangsu was 1900 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-11); the basis in Henan was - 30 yuan/ton (-11); the basis in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (-11) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of March 16, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 93.29% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.76 million tons (-14.05), and the port sample inventory was 18.90 million tons (-0.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of March 16, 2026, the urea production profit was 335 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - As of March 16, 2026, the export profit was 2331 yuan/ton (+540) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of March 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 45.56% (+8.54%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 53.35% (+3.90%); the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 8.06 days (+0.35) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of March 16, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.76 million tons (-14.05), and the port sample inventory was 18.90 million tons (-0.10) [1]

复合肥开工继续提升 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-12，尿素主力收盘1875元/吨（+3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：15 元/吨（-3）；河南基差：-15元/吨（-3）；江苏基差：15元/吨（-3）；尿素生产利润325元/吨（+0），出口利润1796元 /吨（-17）。 供应端：截至2026-03-12，企业产能利用率93.29%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为95.76 万吨（-14.05），港口样本 库存量为18.90 万吨（-0.10）。 需求端：截至2026-03-12，复合肥产能利用率45.56%（+8.54%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为53.35%（+3.90%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.06日（+0.35）。 尿素现货出厂报价已达3月指导价，国内正处春耕保供稳价关键时期，尿素现货价格稳定为主。 尿素期货价格走 强时，期现商入市采购积极，现货成交好转。供应端部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。部分淡储3月开始 投放。需求端春节后返青肥陆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot ex - factory quotes have reached the March guidance price, and the domestic market is in a crucial period of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing. The spot price of urea remains stable. When the urea futures price strengthens, spot traders actively enter the market to purchase, and spot transactions improve. [2] - The supply has increased as some gas - based and technical - renovation enterprises have resumed production, and some off - season reserves will be released in March. After the Spring Festival, the demand for top - dressing fertilizer has gradually increased, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded, and as it approaches the terminal fertilizer - using period, market sentiment has improved, and sales volume has increased. Some melamine plants have temporarily shut down, with a decrease in operating rate and rigid - demand procurement. [2] - Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the sentiment in the futures market is strong, driving the improvement of the spot trading sentiment. Factory inventories are being depleted, while port inventories are slightly increasing. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp increase in international urea prices, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas, and the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. [2] - Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle prices, Henan basis, urea main contract closing price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Longzhong and Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][7][9][14] 2. Urea Output - The report shows urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [24] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes information on urea production cost, production profit, on - disk production profit, urea capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Longzhong and Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [22][29][32] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - The report provides data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle and large - particle FOB in China, the difference between Baltic Sea FOB and China FOB, the difference between Southeast Asian CFR and China FOB, export profit, and on - disk export profit, sourced from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][40][48] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report shows the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders, with data from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents data on factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, urea warehouse receipt quantity, urea main contract holding volume, and urea main contract trading volume, sourced from Longzhong, Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][57][62]