| | 发布日期:2025-09-01 | | --- | --- | | 最新 | 履约期临近,EUA继续与欧洲能源、股市脱钩,震荡上行 | | | 仁佳 【、一级:拍卖价格/1.3欧元/吨(0.17%),技标覆盖比1.8/ | | | 2、二级：EUA期货结算价72.99欧元/吨(1.77%)，成交2.34万手(-0.12)。 | | | 策略 高抛低吸,区间€63~76 | | | 利多:暂无新增。 | | 核心 | 利空:暂无新增。 | | 逻辑 | 其他:1冯德莱恩表示欧盟有战后在乌克兰部署部队的计划;2美国上诉法院认定特 | | | 朗普的全球关税非法，美国总统做出反应，称他将"在美国最高法院的帮助下"进行 | 反击。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹备资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第155期) 国泰君安期货 | EUA拍卖价格 CBAM证书价格 | | EUA拍卖量 | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (欧元/吨) | (欧元/吨) | (万吨) ...

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 149, 2025) [1] Report Date - August 21, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - TTF price surge drives EUA futures prices to turn positive; strategy is to buy low and sell high within the range of €63 - 76 [2] Market Summary Primary Market - EUA auction price is 70.47 euros/ton (-1.26%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.66 [2] Secondary Market - EUA futures settlement price is 71.29 euros/ton (0.18%), with a trading volume of 17,700 lots (-0.40) [2] Strategy - Adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy within the price range of €63 - 76 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - No new bullish factors [2] Bearish Factors - The latest CoT report shows that investment funds' net long positions decreased by 8.65 million tons last week due to significant long - position liquidation; under the newly passed regulations, European gas storage facilities must reach 90% of their capacity between October and December, and the current capacity utilization is 73.91%, indicating a loose EU natural gas supply [2] Other Information - Russia stated on Wednesday that it must participate in any discussions regarding Ukraine's security guarantees, weakening hopes for a quick peace agreement [2][3] Data Tables EUA Auction Information - On August 20, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.47 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.17 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.069 billion tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.66, and the auction revenue was 145.8 million euros [4] - On August 19, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.37 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.17 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 billion tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.59, and the auction revenue was 231.63 million euros [4] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price was 71.29 euros/ton (0.18% increase), the trading volume was 17,700 lots (-0.40), and the open interest was 335,200 lots (no change); the spot settlement price was 70.73 euros/ton (0.20% increase), and the trading volume was 1,233 lots (-5,020) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The EUA price showed a slight rebound, with the investment funds increasing long - positions. The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range of €63 - 76 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: On August 13, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was not available. On August 12, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324.55 million tons, the auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the bid - cover ratio was 1.58, and the auction revenue was 231.40 million euros [4]. - **Secondary Market**: - **Futures**: On August 13, 2023, the EUA futures settlement price was 71.74 euros/ton, up 0.34%, with a trading volume of 1.48 million lots, a decrease of 0.30 million lots. The futures open interest was 33.35 million lots, with no change [2][5]. - **Spot**: On August 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 71.13 euros/ton, up 0.35%, and the trading volume was 1579 lots less than the previous day, a decrease of 0.85%. The container shipping carbon cost was 659 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost accounted for 16.63% [5]. Strategy - The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range of €63 - 76 [2]. Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: - The latest CoT report shows that last week, the net long - positions of investment funds increased by 8.11 million tons, mainly due to long - position increases [2]. - The 27 EU countries have not sent a clear signal of willingness to relax sanctions on Russia [2]. - The restart of 4 reactors totaling 5.4GW affected by the storm has been postponed, and EDF expects the restart to be completed by August 15 at the earliest [2]. - High temperatures will increase the cooling demand this week, driving up fossil - fuel power generation and EUA demand [2]. - **Negative Factors**: German Chancellor Merz said after a video call with European leaders and Trump that there is hope for progress in the Ukraine peace talks after the meeting with Trump [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of €63 - 76. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the EU carbon market. Positive factors include increased buying due to approaching compliance deadlines and strong auctions in the German primary market. Negative factors are the widening short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal, which encourages power generation to use more natural gas [1]. 3. Market Conditions Summary Primary Market - The auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, with a 2.91% increase, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, the auction volume was 160,700 tons, and the auction revenue was 115.93 million euros. On August 7, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.10 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, and the auction revenue was 227.51 million euros [2]. Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.21 euros/ton, up 2.01%, and the trading volume was 28,200 lots, with an increase of 0.28 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, compared with August 7, 2025, the futures settlement price increased from 71.77 to 73.21 euros/ton, the trading volume increased from 2.54 to 2.82 million lots, and the open interest remained unchanged. The spot settlement price increased from 71.14 to 72.56 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume decreased from 2462 to 1602 lots [3]. 4. Strategy and Influencing Factors Strategy - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with the price range between €63 and 76 [1]. Influencing Factors - Positive: As the compliance deadline approaches, compliance demand drives buying, and the German primary market auction is strong [1]. - Negative: The short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal further widens, encouraging power generation to use more natural gas instead of coal [1]. - Others: Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss the Ukraine issue, and it is hinted that the final armistice agreement may involve territorial exchange [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy fundamentals are weak, and EUA prices follow this trend. The recommended strategy is to buy low and sell high within the range of €63 - 76. There are both利多 and利空 factors affecting the market. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 69.68 euros/ton (-0.53%), and the bid - cover ratio is 2.4. [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 69.89 euros/ton (-0.94%), with a trading volume of 18,000 lots (-0.20). [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to buy low and sell high within the price range of €63 - 76. [2] Core Logic - **利多**: The temperature in China and Europe will be higher than the same period of the year, which will increase the demand for cooling electricity. [2] - **利空**: The solar power generation increases, and the remaining load in Germany is expected to decline; the energy benchmark price weakens. [2] - **Other**: A new round of attacks by Russia in Ukraine has caused three deaths, and Zelensky has proposed a new round of peace talks with Russia. [2] Market Data - **Auction Data**: On July 18, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 70.08 million tons, the CBAM certificate price was 160.70 euros/ton, the auction price was 69.68 euros/ton, the auction revenue was 111.98 million euros, and the bid - cover ratio was 2.4. [2] - **Futures and Spot Data**: On July 18, 2025, the futures settlement price was 69.89 euros/ton (-0.94%), the trading volume was 18,000 lots (-0.20), and the open interest was unchanged. The spot settlement price was 69.18 euros/ton (-0.92%), and the trading volume was 685 lots (-875). [2]

Industry Investment Rating - Short-term bearish, medium-term oscillating, with a range of €67 - 76 [1] Core Viewpoints - The rise of European stock markets has led to a recovery in EUA prices. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. Positive factors include the easing of the Middle East conflict and the collective rise of European stocks. Negative factors include the weakening of the energy fundamentals due to Iran's acceptance of the US - proposed cease - fire plan with Israel, the sharp drop in crude oil and TTF, and the agreement between EU member states and the European Parliament to relax gas storage regulations [1] Summary by Related Content EUA Auction Information - On June 24, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.91 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.72 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.32, and the auction revenue was 23,663,000 euros. On June 23, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.00 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.11 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.43, and the auction revenue was 23,368,000 euros [2] EUA Futures and Spot Market - On June 24, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 73.54 euros/ton, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 38,600 lots, up 1.20. The spot settlement price was 72.67 euros/ton, up 0.40%, and the spot trading volume was 8,029 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.50 US dollars/TEU, with a freight - cost ratio increase of 0.68% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core Viewpoint - Weak demand offsets geopolitical risk premiums, causing the EUA price to continue to decline [1] Key Points from Related Content Market Data - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.05 euros/ton (-0.62%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.67 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), with 25,600 contracts traded (-0.41) [1] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Israel's air - strike on Iran and Iran's counter - attack led to concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle - East energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to surge over 4%. Austria denied considering resuming imports from Gazprom [1] - **Negative Factors**: Germany's energy minister reiterated Germany's "interest" in future nuclear technologies such as SMR and fusion reactors. OPEC+ will increase production from May to July, and its spare capacity can fill potential supply gaps, reducing investor panic [1] Market Information Tables - **Auction Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 74.05 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.11 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.61, and the auction revenue was 240.33 million euros [1] - **Futures and Spot Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), the trading volume was 25,600 contracts (-0.41), the spot settlement price was 74.41 euros/ton (-0.93%), the spot trading volume was 2,860 contracts (-820), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.74 US dollars/TEU, and the cost - to - freight ratio increased by 0.69% [2]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 97, 2025) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Report's Core View - EUA continues to decouple from TTF and closes higher again. The short - term outlook is neutral to bullish, while the medium - term outlook shows an oscillation range of €67 - 75. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - First - level (Auction): Auction price is not available, and the bid - coverage ratio is not available. Second - level (EUA Futures): The settlement price is 74.23 euros/ton (0.99% increase), and the trading volume is 21,700 lots (0.57 increase) [2] Strategy - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic - Positive factors: Most EU countries are on holiday, so there is no auction today; The Norwegian natural gas plant is still under maintenance [2] - Negative factors: Rising European temperatures suppress natural gas demand, but it is not enough to stimulate stable cooling demand; Low Asian natural gas demand leads to excess LNG being diverted to Europe, alleviating the pre - replenishment supply shortage and pushing down the TTF price [2] Data Charts - The report includes charts on EUA latest auction market information, EUA auction price trend - seasonal chart, EUA auction bid - coverage ratio - seasonal chart, EUA market information - futures and spot, EUA futures and spot prices and basis, and December contract positions - seasonal chart [2]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 92, 2025) [1] Report Release Date - June 3, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Fluctuation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Viewpoints - EUA is more correlated with TTF as it returns to the energy fundamentals [2] Market Conditions Auction - On June 2, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.58 euros/ton (0.06%), the auction volume was 324,550 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.5, and the auction revenue was 229.07 million euros [2][4] Secondary Market - EUA futures settlement price was 70.91 euros/ton (0.71%), with a trading volume of 26,300 lots (0.66) [2] Strategy - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Expected to fluctuate within the range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - Weaker renewable energy generation and rising electricity demand in Western Europe are expected to push up the residual load [2] Bearish Factors - The US announced to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, pressuring the European market; The June option expiration date is approaching, with the largest open interest of put options at €65 and call options concentrated at €80 [2] Other Factors - The US draft requires Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities, and Iran rejected the US proposal on its nuclear program; Russia proposed a short and limited ceasefire and agreed to exchange prisoners with Ukraine [2][3] Data Charts - There are 6 charts showing EUA auction price, bid coverage ratio, futures and spot market information, price and basis, and December contract positions [4][5]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Quotes Briefing (Issue No. 91, 2025) [1] Report Date - 2025-05-30 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - TTF dropped significantly, and EUA followed weakly [2] - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Primary Market**: The auction price and bid coverage ratio are not available [2] - **Secondary Market**: EUA futures settled at 70.94 euros/ton (-1.57%), with a trading volume of 24,700 lots (0.05) [2] Strategy - Short-term outlook is neutral to bullish, while the medium-term shows an oscillation range between €67 and €75 [2] Core Logic - **Likely Positive Factors**: German Economy Minister urges the EU Commission to approve electricity subsidies for German energy-intensive enterprises [2] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Thursday is a public holiday in most EU countries, potentially leading to weak buyer demand; The US Federal Appellate Court temporarily halted the ruling to enforce a tariff administrative order [2][3] Charts - **Chart 1**: EU Emission Allowance (EUA) latest auction market information, including auction volume, price, CBAM certificate price, bid coverage ratio, and auction revenue [4] - **Chart 2**: EUA auction price trend - Seasonal chart [4] - **Chart 3**: EUA auction bid coverage ratio - Seasonal chart [4] - **Chart 4**: EU Emission Allowance (EUA) market information - Futures and spot, including futures settlement price, trading volume, open interest, spot settlement price, trading volume, shipping carbon cost, and freight ratio [5] - **Chart 5**: EUA futures and spot prices and basis [5] - **Chart 6**: December contract open interest - Seasonal chart [5]