GUIDE 摘要 策面形成多重利好叠加，为市场提供强劲支撑。居民储蓄正在加速向资本市场转移，形成持续的增量资 金来源。A股上市公司整体盈利增速预期由负转正，结束此前连续四年的下滑趋势，其中科技创新领域 盈利弹性最为显著。美联储9月降息预期升温，美元走弱利于外资回流A股。 中长期来看，居民储蓄转 移、政策红利释放及盈利周期回升三大动力依然稳固，A股市场中期慢涨格局有望延续。 西部证券 坚定看好资本市场趋势性向上和风险偏好提升下券商股的配置机会 中原证券： A股市场中期慢涨格局有望延续； 西部证券：坚定看好资本市场趋势性向上和风险偏好提升下券商股的配置机会； 中信建投证券：当前券商板块配置价值提升的核心逻辑在于政策、资金及自身转型的三 方面支撑。 中原证券 A股市场中期慢涨格局有望延续 自身转型方面 ，行业正着力发展高附加值业务，尤其是财富管理和机构业务，优化收入结构并增强盈 利稳定性。因此，券商不仅受益于市场回暖的Beta弹性，更因成功转型而具备独特的Alpha增长潜力 （盈利质量提升）。政策预期、资金改善与内生动力共同作用，使得券商板块的盈利前景确定性提升， 当前具备较高的配置吸引力。 免责声明 以上观点来自 ...

券商板块22日盘中再度走强，截至发稿，光大证券、信达证券涨停，广发证券涨超7%，东方财富涨约4%。 机构表示，近期市场持续活跃，交易定价反映了公募考核新规基准回补效应、去产能、高层会议经济定调及美国关税等政策效应，市场量能及振 幅有所放大，两融波动新高，银行、保险板块高位波动，券商、多元金融板块震荡上行。历史上券商走强的因素主要系国内宏观政策放松+提振 股市、海外流动性宽松+风险事件缓和。交易节奏而言，经济数据走弱下流动性驱动市场走强的趋势或有望延续。 （原标题：券商板块强势上扬，光大证券、信达证券涨停，广发证券等走高） 中信建投证券认为，当前券商板块配置价值提升的核心逻辑在于政策、资金及自身转型的三方面支撑。政策端，"活跃资本市场"导向明确，注册 制深化、交易机制优化、引入中长期资金等举措持续落地，直接拓宽了券商投行、经纪、资管等业务空间。资金端，市场信心修复带动成交回暖 与两融回升，叠加养老金、保险等增量资金入市可期，为券商业绩提供弹性基础。自身转型方面，行业正着力发展高附加值业务，尤其是财富管 理和机构业务，优化收入结构并增强盈利稳定性。因此，券商不仅受益于市场回暖的Beta弹性，更因成功转型而具备独特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing a positive trend, with significant improvements in performance and market activity, driven by policy support, capital inflow, and transformation efforts within the firms [4][6]. Market Performance - As of August 18, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index (399975) decreased by 0.14%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1]. - Notable gainers included Great Wall Securities (up 7.46%), Western Securities (up 4.77%), and Tianfeng Securities (up 1.44%), while Bank of China Securities led the decline [1]. - The brokerage ETF (512000) saw a cumulative increase of 8.55% over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. Liquidity and Trading Activity - The brokerage ETF had a turnover rate of 1.48% and a trading volume of 395 million yuan [4]. - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume for the brokerage ETF was 1.617 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [4]. - The total margin financing and securities lending balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, indicating a recovery in market confidence [4]. Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the brokerage ETF reached 26.734 billion yuan, marking a six-month high [4]. - The ETF's share increased by 21.239 billion shares in the past month, the highest among comparable funds [4]. - In the last 11 trading days, there were net inflows on 7 days, totaling approximately 24.56 million yuan [4]. Sector Performance and Outlook - The brokerage sector showed a clear year-on-year improvement in performance, with 29 listed brokerages reporting profit increases [4]. - The sector's enhanced investment value is attributed to supportive policies, improved market confidence, and a focus on wealth management and institutional business [4]. - The brokerage ETF passively tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with a significant portion allocated to leading firms [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the A-share market, highlighting both the optimism and underlying vulnerabilities that could affect its sustainability [4][5][9]. Market Performance - On August 13, the A-share market saw a trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the previous year's high of 924 points, reaching a nearly four-year high [4]. - Despite this surge, there are signs of weak confidence among retail investors, as evidenced by 245 companies announcing share reductions in August alone [5]. Regulatory Environment - Since July 2023, the central government has implemented measures to stabilize the capital market, including adjusting IPO schedules, tightening quantitative trading, and addressing illegal share reductions [6][9]. - Lin Yixiang, a respected figure in the market, emphasizes the need for systemic reforms to address market vulnerabilities and restore investor confidence [6][9]. Future Market Outlook - Lin Yixiang believes that the current market is not at its peak and that with continued supportive policies, the index could reach 4000 points, indicating a potential 50% increase from current levels [8][18]. - He notes that the average price-to-earnings ratio in the market supports this projection, suggesting that the fundamentals are in place for further growth [18]. Challenges and Recommendations - The article identifies several challenges, including the need for reforms in IPO and share reduction mechanisms, which should not rely solely on administrative orders [23]. - Lin Yixiang advocates for a transparent and independent market stabilization fund to ensure long-term market health, emphasizing that funds should remain invested in the market [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the non-bank financial industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector relative to the broader market over the next six months [1][35]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.6% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.6 percentage points, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing synchronized upward trends [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new A-share accounts, with a year-on-year growth of 70.5% in July, reflecting improved market activity and investor sentiment [4]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing policy support for the commercial health insurance sector, which is expected to drive high-quality development and innovation within the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 both increased by 1.2% last week [8]. - The non-bank financial index saw a 0.6% increase, with the brokerage index up by 0.8% and the insurance index up by 0.3% [8]. Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 20,578 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.1% from the previous week [17]. - The margin trading balance reached 2.01 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.5% increase week-on-week [17]. Industry News - The Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau and other departments issued measures to promote the high-quality development of commercial health insurance, focusing on expanding coverage and encouraging innovation [33]. - The Securities Industry Association released a draft standard for the stability of information systems in the securities industry, aimed at enhancing the sector's resilience against technical risks [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the role of brokerages in stabilizing and activating the capital market through various measures [1][2] - Brokerages should actively cooperate with the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. to stabilize the market and provide policy interpretations to investors [1] - Brokerages are encouraged to leverage their professional advantages to support the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, enhancing underwriting and advisory services [1] Group 2 - Brokerages should focus on high-quality development of public funds by reducing investor costs and improving internal evaluation mechanisms [1] - The investment banking departments of brokerages can assist companies related to new productive forces in entering the A-share market for financing [1] - Brokerages must strengthen compliance and risk control, ensuring that all business operations are conducted in a compliant and stable manner [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive financial policy package launched by the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize and invigorate the capital market [1][2][3] - The financial policy package includes measures such as interest rate cuts, structural tools for supporting agriculture, technology innovation, and consumer services, which aim to lower financing costs and improve liquidity in specific sectors [1][2] - The regulatory bodies are focusing on supporting foreign trade enterprises through targeted financing and insurance services, which is crucial for stabilizing employment in labor-intensive private enterprises [2][3] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is committed to enhancing the role of the Central Huijin Investment Company as a stabilizing fund and is promoting the high-quality development of public funds to increase long-term capital market participation [3][4] - Securities firms are encouraged to actively cooperate with regulatory bodies to stabilize the market, educate investors, and improve service levels in underwriting and advisory roles [4][5] - The article highlights the need for securities firms to strengthen compliance and risk management while collaborating with other financial institutions to foster a healthy market environment [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese trust industry is experiencing a new phase of rapid development, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, an increase of 5.64 trillion yuan or 23.58% from the end of 2023, marking a historical high [1] Historical Development - The trust industry has gone through multiple stages, with assets growing from 3.04 trillion yuan in 2010 to 26.25 trillion yuan in 2017, driven by the real estate sector. However, the rapid expansion led to issues such as insufficient active management capabilities. Following regulatory guidance, assets decreased to 20.49 trillion yuan between 2018 and 2020, but have since shown recovery, reaching 21.14 trillion yuan at the end of 2022 and 23.92 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 [3] Structural Changes in Fund Allocation - The allocation of funds in trusts has shifted significantly, with the securities market becoming the largest investment area. By the end of 2024, the scale of fund trusts reached 22.25 trillion yuan, up 28.02% from 2023, with 10.27 trillion yuan directed towards the securities market, a 55.61% increase from 6.60 trillion yuan in 2023. This represents 46.17% of total fund trusts, aligning with policies aimed at invigorating the capital market [4] Industry Transformation and Business Model Upgrade - The year 2024 marks the first complete year of implementing the new classification regulations for trust companies. The industry has undergone profound changes, with 28.81% of the 22.25 trillion yuan in fund trusts directly supporting the real economy, and 46.17% indirectly through the securities market. The industry is transitioning from traditional non-standard financing to a more diversified and professional asset service model, with significant growth in wealth management trusts, which exceed 1 trillion yuan [5] Trust Property Registration Trials - Ongoing trials for trust property registration are creating new opportunities for industry development. In December 2024 and March 2025, Beijing initiated trials for real estate and equity trust property registration, respectively. By now, trust registration companies have issued several registration certificates for real estate and equity trusts [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant recovery in the brokerage industry, with a notable increase in both revenue and profit for listed brokerages in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven primarily by brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [2][12][17] - The competitive landscape remains concentrated, with leading firms continuing to strengthen their market positions, suggesting a trend of "the strong getting stronger" [2][65] Revenue and Profit Overview - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the adjusted operating revenue for listed brokerages increased by 3.1% and 27.9% year-on-year, respectively, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 15.1% and 79.0% [2][12] - The average annualized ROE for listed brokerages reached 8.2% in Q1 2025, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [17] Business Segment Performance - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates for proprietary trading, brokerage, credit, investment banking, asset management, and other businesses were +46.0%, +43.4%, +11.4%, -1.5%, -5.7%, and -20.2%, respectively [2][25] - Proprietary trading and brokerage businesses were the main drivers of revenue growth, contributing significantly to the overall performance of brokerages [2][25] Market Conditions and Policy Impact - The report highlights a favorable policy environment that is expected to support the brokerage sector, with ongoing efforts to stabilize and invigorate the capital market [3][77] - The active capital market signals are anticipated to improve the fundamentals of brokerages with high proportions of brokerage and margin financing business [3][77] Competitive Landscape - The top five brokerages accounted for 54.4% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025, indicating a continued increase in industry concentration [67] - The market share of leading firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities remains strong, with CITIC Securities holding a market share of 14.4% in Q1 2025 [66][67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerages with a high proportion of brokerage and margin financing business, as well as those with strong proprietary trading strategies and risk management practices [2][3][77] - Specific firms recommended for attention include China Galaxy and Guotai Junan for their robust business models and market positioning [2][3]