电力 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 22 年 月 日 三产&居民拉动全社会用电高增 10.4%，火电出力转增 事件：国家能源局发布 1-10 月电力消费情况，国家统计局公布 10 月份 能源生产情况。 需求端：10 月全国全社会用电量同比增长 10.4%。根据国家能源局发布 数据，1-10 月，全社会用电量累计 86246 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.1%，其中规 模以上工业发电量为 80625 亿千瓦时。10 月份，全社会用电量 8572 亿千瓦 时，同比增长 10.4%。 整体来看，10 月一产、三产以及居民用电需求增速均显著加快，二产用电需 求环比继续改善。第一产业 10 月单月用电增速增长至 13.2%，1-10 月累计 用电同比增速提升至 10.5%。在高技术及装备制造业快速扩张及"反内卷"稳 工业增长等一系列政策拉动的背景下，二产用能持续改善，10 月单月二产用 电同比增长 6.2%，1-10 月用电量累计同比增速 3.7%。第三产业 10 月单月 用电量同比增长 17.1%，较 9 月显著提升，1-10 月用电量同比增长 8.4%， 其中充换电服务业以及信息传 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power sector [4] Core Views - The rise in coal prices is expected to support electricity price expectations, with the current price of 809 CNY/ton for Q5500 coal, marking a new high for the year [12][10] - The continuous operation of the electricity spot market across 28 provinces indicates significant progress towards a unified national electricity market [12][10] Summary by Sections Industry Insights - Coal prices have surged, creating a favorable environment for the upcoming 2026 electricity price negotiations. The coal market is currently characterized by tight supply and demand, with coal production declining for three consecutive months from July to September [12][10] - The electricity spot market has entered continuous operation, with 28 provinces now participating. This transition marks a significant shift from a planned to a market-driven electricity production organization [12][10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,997.56 points, up 1.08%, while the CSI 300 Index rose 0.82%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index increased by 2.30%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.48 percentage points [58][59] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the thermal power sector, particularly companies like Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Zhejiang Energy, as coal prices rebound and performance expectations improve [3] - Emphasize investments in undervalued green energy sectors, particularly in Hong Kong-listed green energy and wind power operators [3] - Monitor the hydropower sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [3] Key Company Announcements - Huaneng announced a significant investment in a new integrated heat and power project in Heilongjiang, with a total investment of 12.043 billion CNY [69] - Shenzhen Nanshan Thermal Power received a government subsidy of 8.05 million CNY, representing 36.75% of its net profit for the last fiscal year [69]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities reaching 859 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 384.85% [3] - The company's non-net profit has continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 34.85% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][3] - The equipment and engineering business has rebounded, driven by demand for traditional boiler equipment and overseas market expansion, leading to a 52.33% year-on-year increase in revenue for the third quarter [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.662 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 344 million yuan, down 28.46% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 18.29%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 11.37% [3] - The company forecasts operating revenues of 8.271 billion yuan, 8.628 billion yuan, and 9.185 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to the parent company projected at 637 million yuan, 668 million yuan, and 734 million yuan for the same years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant revenue growth driven by its main business in environmental protection, with a strong outlook for overseas expansion [1][3] - The traditional business of slag treatment and low-temperature economizers is benefiting from the new wave of coal power construction and equipment upgrades [2] - The company is actively expanding into international markets and diversifying its product offerings, which are expected to become new growth engines [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 124 million yuan, up 267.1% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 284 million yuan, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 60.7% [1] Market Potential - The traditional business has a potential market space estimated to be between 700 million to 2.9 billion yuan annually over the next three years [2] - The flexibility transformation segment is expected to see a sustained demand, with a projected annual market space of 700 million to 1.7 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.99 billion, 2.38 billion, and 2.79 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.2%, 20.0%, and 16.8% [4] - Net profit projections for the same years are 212 million, 259 million, and 310 million yuan [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a subsidiary in Indonesia and signed a contract worth approximately 25.48 million USD (about 181 million yuan) for a project in Vietnam [3] - New business areas such as desulfurization wastewater and steel slag treatment are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in its equipment manufacturing and power plant engineering businesses, with a notable increase in revenue in Q3 2025 [2][4] - The company is expected to enter a new growth phase with its hydrogen energy and flexible coal power transformation projects nearing commercialization [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 22.45 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 52.33% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.92% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 3.44 billion yuan, down 28.46% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from significant asset disposals in the previous year [1][4] - The company's non-recurring net profit for the first three quarters was 3.08 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.85%, indicating improved profitability in core operations [1] Business Segments - The equipment manufacturing segment continued its strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth exceeding 20% in the first half of 2025, driven by demand for efficient boiler equipment and overseas market expansion [2] - The traditional power plant engineering business has shown signs of recovery, contributing positively to Q3 revenue growth [2] Future Outlook - The company is poised to realize new growth drivers from its hydrogen energy projects, with the first batch of large-scale electrolyzers successfully delivered for a hydrogen energy industrial park project [3] - The flexible transformation of coal power projects is also progressing, with successful field tests completed, indicating potential for future project orders [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 7.19 billion, 8.03 billion, and 9.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75, 0.84, and 0.95 yuan per share [4]

Summary of Xi Zi Energy Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Xi Zi Energy - **Industry**: Solar Thermal Power Generation, Energy Storage, Nuclear Power Key Points and Arguments 1. **Cost Reduction and Policy Support**: Xi Zi Energy benefits from the decline in solar thermal power generation costs and supportive policies, with the cost per kilowatt-hour in Qinghai dropping to around 0.5 yuan, and a benchmark price of 0.55 yuan being established. By 2026, subsidies for capacity will increase to 330 yuan per kilowatt, enhancing the profitability of molten salt storage to over 7% [2][5][10] 2. **Market Potential in Solar Thermal Power**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) encourages the construction of 3GW of solar thermal power annually. Xi Zi Energy, as a major equipment supplier, focuses on heat collectors, thermal storage tanks, and heat exchangers, with an estimated market share of 20%, translating to approximately 3 billion yuan in net profit annually [2][6] 3. **Molten Salt Storage Advantages**: Molten salt storage technology shows significant advantages in deep peak shaving for thermal power, allowing load reductions to around 10%. The cost of 1GWh is approximately 340 million yuan, significantly lower than chemical storage costs, with a design life of 30 years, leading to an expected profit increase of 3-4 billion yuan from flexible thermal power renovations [2][7][8] 4. **Future of Thermal Power**: The NDRC mandates the renovation of 200-400 million kilowatts of thermal power capacity by 2027, with 600 million kilowatts already partially renovated, indicating substantial market potential for molten salt storage systems [9] 5. **International Market Demand**: Xi Zi Energy's main business includes waste heat boilers used in gas and coal power generation, with strong demand anticipated in international markets, particularly the U.S. and developing countries. Domestic thermal power construction is expected to remain stable [3] 6. **Nuclear Power Opportunities**: The company has obtained a manufacturing license for civil nuclear safety equipment, aiming for a 10% market share in nuclear power equipment, with projected orders of 2-3 billion yuan and profits of 300-400 million yuan by 2030 [4][11] 7. **Diversification in Energy Technologies**: Xi Zi Energy is diversifying into various cutting-edge energy technologies, including solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and pumped storage, with a projected market valuation of over 20 times, corresponding to 600 million yuan in profits by 2030 [4][12] Other Important Insights - **Industrial Heating Projects**: A specific project in Shaoxing involves an investment of 320 million yuan, generating annual profits of around 10 million yuan, potentially increasing to 60 million yuan with sufficient transformer capacity, indicating a five-year payback period [4][10] - **Technological Advancements**: The company is actively exploring advancements in energy technologies, including collaborations with research institutions for next-generation nuclear reactors, showcasing a commitment to innovation and long-term growth [11][12]

Group 1: Company Overview - Xizi Clean Energy Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was established in 1955 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2011, focusing on waste heat boilers and clean energy equipment [3][4] - The company operates four main business segments: waste heat boilers, clean energy equipment, solutions, and spare parts & services [3][4] Group 2: Key Projects and Innovations - The company participated in the first "steam extraction and storage" molten salt energy storage project in China, which enhances load flexibility and can reduce the load to 51 MW (8.5% of Pe) for at least 4 hours [5] - The molten salt storage system achieves an internal heat exchange efficiency of no less than 98% and an electrical conversion efficiency of no less than 70% [5] Group 3: Market Opportunities - Future growth areas include the renewable energy market, nuclear power market, and international markets, leveraging molten salt storage technology and expanding into overseas markets [7][8][9] - The company aims to capture opportunities in the nuclear power sector by upgrading its manufacturing capabilities and establishing a joint venture for nuclear technology [10] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company has been involved in 17 solar thermal power demonstration projects since 2010, establishing a strong market presence and technical advantage [12] - The Qinghai Delingha 50 MW solar thermal project is recognized as a benchmark for solar thermal power generation, achieving a record annual output of 146.4 million kWh in 2022 [12] Group 5: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - Recent government policies encourage the development of green electricity projects and zero-carbon parks, which align with the company's initiatives in energy solutions [13] - The company has established China's first zero-carbon factory and is exploring market opportunities under the green electricity direct connection mechanism [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a decline in total revenue and net profit, primarily due to a decrease in engineering business revenue. However, the equipment manufacturing sector is recovering, with significant growth in energy-efficient power generation equipment [1][2][4]. - The company has successfully delivered its first batch of alkaline electrolyzers, which are expected to fill a gap in the domestic market for high-pressure electrolyzers. This development, along with advancements in flexible coal-fired power generation, is anticipated to drive future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.30%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 285 million yuan, down 28.16% year-on-year [1]. - The equipment manufacturing segment reported revenue of 929 million yuan, an increase of 26.51% year-on-year, driven by overseas market development and opportunities in energy-saving and low-carbon transformation [2]. Equipment Manufacturing - The revenue from energy-efficient power generation equipment surged to 620 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 223%. In contrast, revenue from environmental protection equipment fell to 310 million yuan, a decrease of 42% [2]. - The company has a total backlog of boiler equipment orders amounting to 1.66 billion yuan, with stable order volumes across various segments [2]. Engineering Business - The municipal engineering segment experienced a significant revenue decline of 64% year-on-year, totaling 440 million yuan in the first half of 2025. This decline is attributed to reduced government investment and a strategic shift towards higher-margin projects [2]. - The thermal power operation segment reported revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, down 25% year-on-year, but with an improved gross margin of 22.78%, up 5.27 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a rebound in net profit, with projections of 777 million yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.013 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Corresponding EPS estimates are 0.81 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 1.06 yuan per share [4][5]. - The report highlights the anticipated dual momentum from hydrogen production and flexible coal-fired power generation, which are expected to support rapid development [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.417 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.30%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 285 million yuan, down 28.16% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit increased by 27.41% year-on-year, indicating resilience in core business profitability [5][6] - The hydrogen energy business achieved a milestone delivery, completing the testing and delivery of the first batch of electrolyzers for a major project, which is expected to enhance the company's market reputation in the hydrogen sector [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 23.30% primarily due to a strategic contraction in municipal environmental engineering, which saw a revenue drop of 64.40%. Additionally, revenue from thermal power and photovoltaic operations fell by 25.13% due to lower upstream raw material prices [6] - The gross profit margin improved to 19.60%, up 4.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased slightly to 8.75%, down 0.22 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] Business Segments - The company is transitioning its municipal environmental engineering business towards higher-margin surveying and design services, which has led to a gross margin increase of 6.13 percentage points. The thermal power operations benefited from lower raw material costs and improved management, resulting in a gross margin increase of 5.27 percentage points [6] - The equipment manufacturing segment saw a revenue increase of 26.51% year-on-year, reaching 929 million yuan, supported by overseas market expansion and domestic equipment upgrades [6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 819 million yuan, 882 million yuan, and 984 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 25, 24, and 21 [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed growth in non-recurring net profit and significant improvement in cash flow from operating activities [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 4.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.30% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 285 million yuan, down 28.16% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 258 million yuan, an increase of 27.41% year-on-year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 281 million yuan, up 86.67% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.30 yuan, a decrease of 28.19% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Analysis - Equipment Business: Revenue reached 929 million yuan, a significant increase of 26.51% year-on-year, driven by industry equipment upgrades and overseas market expansion [2] - Engineering Business: Revenue from municipal environmental engineering was 439 million yuan, down 64.38% due to a strategic shift to reduce low-margin projects; power station engineering revenue was stable at 579 million yuan [2] - Operating Business: Environmental operation services generated 338 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.23%; thermal power operation revenue was 2.056 billion yuan, down 25.13% due to raw material price declines, but gross margin improved by 5.2 percentage points to 22.78% [2] Growth Opportunities - The company achieved a milestone in hydrogen energy with the successful delivery of the first batch of electrolyzers, which is expected to enhance market reputation and future order acquisition [3] - The successful verification of flexible coal-fired power technology indicates potential for commercial application, with ongoing discussions with potential clients for future orders [3] Capital Management - The company completed a share buyback plan worth 100 million yuan, representing 1.05% of total share capital, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [4] - The company successfully issued multiple medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds, with financing rates decreasing by 19.1% and 30.3% compared to the previous year, optimizing debt structure and reducing financial costs [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate operating revenues of 8.271 billion yuan, 8.628 billion yuan, and 9.185 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 637 million yuan, 668 million yuan, and 734 million yuan [4]