Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Supply is boosted by the restart of some plants and new production lines, while demand has mostly recovered to pre - second - quarter levels. Port inventory is likely to accumulate, and the potential early production of Yulong Petrochemical's pure benzene plant has affected market sentiment and widened the price difference with styrene [3]. - The styrene market's supply - demand pattern is weakening. Supply pressure is increasing as weekly production reaches a historical high, and demand from downstream industries is softening. Port inventory is rising, and styrene has entered an inventory - building phase. Attention should be paid to the basis adjustment rhythm and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals**: - **Price**: On July 7, the styrene main contract closed down 0.04% at 7337 yuan/ton, with a basis of 303 (+13 yuan/ton). - **Cost**: The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 67.0 dollars/barrel (+0 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil at 68.3 dollars/barrel (-0.5 dollars/barrel), and the East China pure benzene spot price was 5880 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton). - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.4 million tons (-0.6 million tons), a 3.0% de - stocking, while Jiangsu port inventory was 9.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 16.2% inventory build - up. - **Supply**: Styrene's maintenance devices are gradually returning, with a weekly output of 36.7 million tons (+0 million tons) and a factory capacity utilization rate of 80.0% (-0.1%). - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S industries have declined. EPS is at 55.9% (-3.84%), ABS at 65.0% (-1.0%), and PS at 52.4% (-5.0%) [2]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: - **Styrene**: The futures main - contract price dropped 0.04% to 7337 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 0.13% to 7914 yuan/ton. The basis increased 4.48% to 303 yuan/ton. - **Pure Benzene**: The East China price remained unchanged at 5880 yuan/ton, the South Korea FOB price dropped 0.42% to 711.5 dollars/ton, the US FOB price rose 2.29% to 817.8 dollars/ton, and the China CFR price dropped 0.41% to 727.5 dollars/ton. - **Spreads**: The pure benzene internal - benefit - CFR spread increased 6.60% to -398.1 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene East China - Shandong spread decreased 71.43% to -120.0 yuan/ton. - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil was flat at 67.0 dollars/ton, WTI crude oil dropped 0.73% to 68.3 dollars/ton, and naphtha dropped 0.39% to 7751.5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Output and Inventory**: - **Output**: China's styrene output was 36.7 million tons (-0.07%), and pure benzene output was 43.3 million tons (+0.16%). - **Inventory**: Jiangsu styrene port inventory increased 16.24% to 9.9 million tons, domestic styrene factory inventory decreased 2.99% to 19.4 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased 3.51% to 17.7 million tons [7]. - **Capacity Utilization**: - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: Styrene's capacity utilization dropped 0.05% to 80.0%, caprolactam rose 6.41% to 95.7%, phenol dropped 0.46% to 78.5%, and aniline dropped 0.10% to 69.2%. - **Styrene Downstream**: EPS dropped 3.84% to 55.9%, ABS dropped 0.96% to 65.0%, and PS dropped 5.00% to 52.4% [8]. 3.3. Industry News - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary admits it may be difficult to complete all negotiations. - Trump may lead a delegation to China, and US officials are formulating a plan for him to visit China with dozens of CEOs later this year. - The US Senate passed the Trump tax - reform bill in a key procedural vote with a 51 - 49 margin [9].

Core Viewpoint - The passage discusses concerns regarding the U.S. fiscal situation following the Senate's approval of President Trump's multi-trillion dollar tax reform, which is expected to significantly increase the national deficit and boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 1: Tax Reform and Fiscal Concerns - The tax reform bill is projected to expand the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [1]. - Investors are increasingly worried about the implications of Trump's trade and economic policies on U.S. assets [1]. Group 2: Gold Market Response - Gold prices have remained around $3,340 per ounce, reflecting a 2% increase over the previous two trading days [1]. - The ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar, currently at its lowest level since 2022, continues to support gold prices [1]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - A report indicating an increase in job vacancies in the U.S. has led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, although this pressure on gold prices is being offset by other factors [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate is preparing for a final vote on the Trump tax reform bill [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate has secured enough votes in a procedural vote to advance the Trump tax reform bill, increasing the likelihood of the bill's passage in the coming days [1]

Group 1 - The CBO and JCT estimate that Trump's spending and tax reform plan, if implemented, will increase federal debt by $2.8 trillion over the next decade [1] - The CBO's latest assessment includes macroeconomic impacts, projecting a 0.5% increase in real GDP but a 0.14 percentage point rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, leading to increased borrowing costs that outweigh tax revenue gains [1] - By 2034, the CBO expects public-held federal debt to rise by $3.3 trillion, reaching 124% of GDP, compared to the baseline forecast of 117% [1] Group 2 - The Senate is currently evaluating its version of the tax reform bill, which continues Trump's 2017 personal tax cuts and introduces new tax exemptions [2] - The House passed the bill with a narrow margin, while fiscal conservatives express concerns over its costs, and moderate Republicans from Democratic-leaning states demand an increase in the SALT deduction cap [2] - The Senate's version retains a $10,000 SALT deduction cap, significantly lower than the House's proposed $40,000 cap, leading to strong opposition from Republicans supporting SALT reform [2] Group 3 - The House version is viewed as the most fiscally prudent, while the Senate plans to use a "current policy baseline" for budget assessment, which may obscure the true costs of the bill [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects that the House version of the Trump tax reform bill will increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade despite its economic impacts [1] Group 1 - The tax reform bill is expected to have significant implications for the federal budget, leading to a substantial increase in the national deficit [1]

Core Points - Senate Republicans plan to propose a revised version of tax and healthcare provisions of President Trump's $3 trillion economic plan, aiming for passage before July 4 [1] - The Senate Finance Committee intends to cut spending on Medicaid and Medicare, which may differ from the large bill that barely passed in the House of Representatives in May [1] - The release of the committee's draft may spark renewed debates between fiscal conservatives and moderates [1] - Companies in the energy, healthcare, manufacturing, and financial services sectors will closely monitor the developments [1] - A White House official indicated that key congressional members and Trump administration officials will meet on Thursday to discuss the tax reform bill [1]

Core Points - The Senate plans to introduce significant adjustments to the Trump-backed tax reform bill this week [1] - Republican senators aim to finalize legislation before July 4, focusing on revised tax and healthcare provisions [1] - The Senate Finance Committee intends to achieve savings by cutting Medicaid expenditures, which may also affect Medicare [1] - The new proposal is expected to differ from the version that narrowly passed in the House in May [1] - Disclosure of the proposal's details may spark renewed divisions between fiscal conservatives and moderates within the Republican Party [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Senate Republicans are planning to propose a revised version of the $3 trillion economic plan supported by President Trump, aiming for its passage before July 4, despite criticisms from Elon Musk [1] Group 1: Economic Plan Details - The Senate Finance Committee intends to save costs on Medicaid and possibly Medicare, which may differ from the large version of the bill that narrowly passed in the House of Representatives in May [1] - The unveiling of the committee's draft could spark a new round of debate between fiscal conservatives and moderates [1]

Group 1 - The public feud between Elon Musk and former President Trump has caused significant market volatility, with Musk criticizing Trump's policies and linking him to the Epstein scandal [1][3][4] - Musk's sharp criticism of Trump's tax reform plan, which he claims will lead to bankruptcy and increased deficits, has contributed to their fallout [3][4] - The feud has resulted in a dramatic drop in Tesla's market value, losing $150 billion in a single day, and negatively impacting the broader stock market [4] Group 2 - A federal judge has temporarily blocked Trump's visa restrictions on international students at Harvard University, complicating his administration's plans [2][5][6] - The negative impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with May's private sector job growth slowing to 37,000, significantly below expectations [2][7] - The U.S. experienced a historic drop in imports in April, with a 20% decline, reflecting the immediate effects of the tariff policies [7]