交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-28 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货988元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1041元/吨，基差为-53元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6236.20万重量箱，较前一周减少1.49%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给低位企稳，下游深加工厂订单惨淡，玻璃厂库回升，预期玻璃低位震荡偏弱运 行为主。 2、风险点： "反内 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-27 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货988元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1037元/吨，基差为-49元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6330.30万重量箱，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 2、深加工行业资金回款不乐观，贸易商、加工厂心态谨 ...

Group 1 - Glass futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1013.00 yuan and closing at 1018.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.26% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the glass market outlook, with Hualian Futures suggesting a short-selling strategy during rebounds, while Zhonghui Futures emphasizes the importance of the 1000 yuan support level [2][3] - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures indicates that the main contract has a support range of 900-950 yuan, highlighting the potential for increased production if industry profits rise, despite high inventory levels [3] Group 2 - Hualian Futures notes that the glass market has seen a slight recovery in production and sales, but the overall supply-demand fundamentals remain weak, with high inventory levels persisting [2] - Zhonghui Futures points out that the domestic capacity reduction policies are expected to boost market sentiment, but the reality of demand constraints remains a concern [3] - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests that the glass market may have more elasticity compared to steel, particularly due to urban renewal projects, and recommends a strategy of long positions in glass while shorting rebar [3]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Policy benefits boost the market sentiment, but the fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. Section Summaries Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis shows that the production profit of glass is at a low level, the cold - repair of the industry increases, the start - up rate and output drop to the historical low, the deep - processing orders are weaker than the same period in previous years, and the factory inventory continues to accumulate, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is 4 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot, which is neutral [2]. - The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. Influencing Factors - **Likely factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continuously declined to a historical low. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to implement a production - cut plan, which boosts the market sentiment [3]. - **Negative factors**: The terminal demand in the real - estate sector is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4]. Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. It is the seasonal off - peak season for demand, and downstream enterprises purchase as needed. The factory inventory of glass continues to accumulate. Therefore, glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 980 yuan/ton to 1052 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.35% [6]. - The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass increased from 1052 yuan/ton to 1056 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.38% [6]. - The main basis decreased from 72 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 94.44% [6]. Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1056 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost side**: Negative feedback of production profit leads to a decrease in glass output [3]. - **Production and capacity**: The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 222, with an operating rate of 75.15%. The daily melting capacity is 156,800 tons, both at historical lows for the same period [21][23]. - **Demand**: In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [27]. - **Inventory**: The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [42]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance table of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in production, consumption, and other indicators over the years [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - Glass production profit is at a low level, industry cold repair increases,开工率 and output drop to historical lows; deep - processing orders are less than the same period in previous years, terminal demand is weak, and factory inventory continues to accumulate; the basis shows futures are at a discount to spot; inventory is above the 5 - year average; the price is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward; the main position is net short and short positions increase; it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. Influence Factor Summary - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, downstream purchases as needed, and the glass factory inventory continues to accumulate, so it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main basis is 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. Cost - Side of Fundamentals - The profit of the coal production line has rebounded, the loss of the natural gas production line has narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [19]. Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with an operating rate of 75.57%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period; the daily melting volume is 15.57 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [23][25]. Demand Analysis - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468.08 tons [29]. Inventory Analysis - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in production, consumption, and other indicators of float glass, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and volatile trend at a low level. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly operate with a strong and volatile trend at a low level [2][5]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - sized glass was 1084 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% from the previous value. The main basis was 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.83% from the previous value [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, was 1084 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The profit feedback in glass production is obvious. The coal production line's profitability has recovered, the loss of the natural gas production line has narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [3][17]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%. The glass production line operation number is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. Fundamental - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [27][4]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.769 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous week, and the inventory is operating above the five - year average [2][42]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in glass production, imports, exports, apparent supply, consumption, and other data over the years. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the apparent supply is 54.61 million tons, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons [43]. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: The negative feedback on production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continuously declined to a historical low. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [3]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [4]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly operate with a strong and volatile trend at a low level [5]. - **Risk Points**: The industry's resumption of production accelerates, and the macro and real - estate policies fall short of expectations [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with short - term expectations of mainly weak and oscillatory movements. Although the supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period, due to the still - weak terminal demand in the real estate sector, the market is under pressure. However, influenced by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream inventory replenishment has led to a reduction in glass factory inventories. Overall, it is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly stronger at a low level [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1071 yuan/ton, showing a decline of 1.02% compared to the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass is 1156 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. The main basis is 85 yuan/ton, up 3.66% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The profitability of the coal production line has recovered, the losses of the natural gas production line have narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [16]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 75.85%. The production line operation number and daily melting capacity are at historical lows for the same period [19][21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 431.43 tons. The terminal demand in the real estate sector is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw material inventories [25][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 64.989 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [43]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector is weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, and the capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [4]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main logic: With the glass supply declining to a relatively low level for the same period, influenced by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream inventory replenishment has led to a reduction in glass factory inventories. It is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly stronger at a low level [5]. - Risk points: Accelerated industry resumption of production and less - than - expected macro and real estate policies [5].

每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修减少，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及 往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库去化放缓；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1164元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1122元/吨，基差为42元，期货贴水 现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6507.80万重量箱，较前一周减少0.19%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏 空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-4-21 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、地 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The glass market is currently facing multiple negative factors, with demand being weak. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. Although there are some supply - side positive factors, overall, the market situation is not optimistic [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Tariff disputes have escalated, dragging down the macro - sentiment. Glass production profit is at a low level, cold - repair in the industry continues, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows. Deep - processing orders are rising, and mid - and downstream inventory replenishment has occurred, with the inflection point of factory inventory reached, but the seasonal peak season for demand is in doubt [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1,168 yuan/ton, and the closing price of FG2509 is 1,181 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 13 yuan, indicating a futures premium [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 65.203 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [4]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: Glass demand is sluggish, and it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner in the short - term [4]. Impact Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass output has continuously dropped to a historical low [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory. The full - scale escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Under the influence of the expectation of a seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream periodic inventory replenishment has led to the reduction of glass factory inventory. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a volatile and strong manner at a low level [7]. - **Risk Points**: The acceleration of industry复产 and the failure of macro and real - estate policies to meet expectations [7]. Glass Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Shahe Anquan Large - Plate Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,206 | 1,168 | - 38 | | Current Value | 1,181 | 1,168 | - 13 | | Change Rate | - 2.07% | 0.00% | - 65.79% | [8] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1,168 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [14]. Fundamental - Cost Side The profit of coal - petroleum coke production lines has rebounded, and the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed [21]. Fundamental - Production The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 224, with a start - up rate of 75.42%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass is 158,500 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [25][27]. Fundamental - Demand In December 2024, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.9225 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.61% [31]. Fundamental - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 65.203 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous week, and the inventory has declined to near the 5 - year average [46]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the annual supply - demand balance of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：关税争端全面启动，宏观情绪拖累；玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修延续，开工率、产量下 降至历史同期低位；深加工订单回升，中下游补库，厂库拐点已至，但需求季节性旺季存疑；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1156元/吨，FG2505收盘价为1180元/吨，基差为-24元，期货升水 现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6575.70万重量箱，较前一周减少1.87%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏 空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：宏观情绪悲观叠加玻璃需求提振乏力，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户 ...