供需矛盾不大，甲醇偏弱震荡 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年7月13日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 虽然近期商品情绪好转，但反弹主要集中在黑色及新能源相关行业，甲醇目前上游高利润、下游低利润， 不具备估值修复的逻辑，所以表现很平淡。就甲醇自身而言，中东地缘政治冲突降温，港口纸货结束挤仓， 现货流动性不再紧张，现货价格下跌，甲醇转入偏弱震荡。 甲醇基本面变动不大，甲醇自身供应压力还是比较大，高利润刺激上游形成高供应，下游需求增长乏力， 甲醇整体偏弱。我们建议谨防回调风险。 单边策略：偏弱震荡，谨防回调风险 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 现货 ...

甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 理 | 跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空甲醇期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | MA2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 2250-235 0 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心甲醇价格下 | 多 | | MA2509P2 | 买入 | | 15-20 | | | | | 买入看 ...

| | | 中煤榆林二期本周预期停车检修，烯烃行业开工或继续降低。MA2509合约短线预计在2400-2460区间波动 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2404 | 20 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -30 | 6 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 736161 | -20566 期货前20名持仓:净买单量 ...

波动。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2381 | -12 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -32 | -6 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 759976 | -24522 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -90502 | -8943 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7885 | -132 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2790 | -40 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1992.5 | -7.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 797.5 | -32.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 409 | -28 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 287 | -4 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 350 | 3 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 262 | 0 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -63 | - ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 延长中煤榆林二期下周预期停车检修，烯烃行业开工或继续降低。MA2509合约短线预计在2350-2450区间 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 甲醇产业日报 2025-06-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2417 | 26 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -16 | 10 | | | 主力合约 ...

国际形势变动。需求方面，中煤蒙大计划内检修，华东企业负荷稍降，本周国内甲醇制烯烃行业开工率有 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 所下降，下周随着中煤蒙大烯烃检修陆续进行，以及华东地区烯烃企业可能出现的降负荷预期，烯烃行业 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 开工或继续降低。MA2509合约短线预计在2460-2580区间波动。 免责声明 甲醇产业日报 2025-06-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2543 | 26 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 28 | 11 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 909435 | 17514 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -58566 | -6526 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7955 | -1804 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 27 ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2455 | -9 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 0 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 816410 | -3696 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -55866 | 28548 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 9759 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2570 | 30 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1950 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 620 | 30 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 115 | 39 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 298 | 13 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 325 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 275 | -2 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -27 | 13 | | 上游情况 | NYMEX ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-06-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2290 | 8 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -63 | 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 809827 | -17645 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -75600 | 4759 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 9120 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2375 | 20 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1897.5 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 477.5 | 20 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 85 | 12 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 271 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 276 | 1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -51 | 0 | ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2276 | -1 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -62 | -1 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 832017 | 12925 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -82869 | 7448 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8120 | 3520 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2360 | 35 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1895 | 12.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 465 | 22.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 84 | 36 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 266 | 3 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 275 | -1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -56 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the Xinjiang methanol market has ample supply due to new capacity, with an expected 1.3 million tons/year and a growth rate of about 28%. This may ease the previous supply tightness and benefit downstream enterprises, but there are still issues with goods circulation [1][13]. - The downstream consumption structure of methanol in Xinjiang is diverse, mainly including olefins, BDO, silicone, and formaldehyde. However, the overall profitability is weak, and the downstream demand is relatively weak compared to the previous year, resulting in a lackluster market price. External demand is needed to relieve the supply pressure [2][17]. - Transportation limitations restrict the circulation of methanol supply to some extent. The cancellation of hazardous chemical transportation qualifications at railway freight stations and high road - transport costs limit the connection between Xinjiang's methanol supply and the external market. However, it may promote the growth of local demand [3][18]. - From the cost perspective, the coal price in Xinjiang has dropped compared to the same period last year. Since the price is already at a relatively low level, the subsequent decline of Xinjiang methanol is expected to be limited, and the price has support [4][59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Background and Purpose of the Xinjiang Methanol Industry Chain Research - From 2020 to the present, the Xinjiang methanol market has developed rapidly. With policy support, downstream industries have been continuously put into production, driving the demand for methanol in the region. Most of the methanol in Xinjiang is for self - use, with a small amount for export. The research aims to understand the production and sales of regional enterprises in 2024 and 2025, raw material costs, the impact of methanol prices on production, and growth opportunities in the BDO industry [12] 2. Core Conclusions of the Research - **Supply Situation**: The Xinjiang methanol market has a relatively loose supply due to new capacity. The release of methanol capacity may ease the previous supply tightness, but there are problems with goods circulation [13] - **Downstream Consumption and Profitability**: The downstream consumption structure is diverse, but the profitability is weak. The profitability of BDO, formaldehyde, and silicone has declined compared to 2024, leading to weaker downstream demand and a lackluster market price [17] - **Transportation Impact**: Transportation limitations restrict the circulation of methanol supply but may promote local demand. The cancellation of railway transportation qualifications and high road - transport costs limit the connection with the external market [18] 3. Detailed Research on the Xinjiang Methanol Industry Chain 3.1 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise A - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol and downstream deep - processing enterprise with about 1 million tons of ethylene glycol, about 200,000 tons of BDO, and about 900,000 tons of methanol production capacity [29] - **Business Model and Sales Strategy**: It mainly sells within Xinjiang and exports a small amount outside. It can adjust the sales ratio according to price differences. Most of the long - term contracts are in the "locked - quantity and open - price" mode, and spot trading is the main sales method. It currently relies on road transportation, and the traditional export destinations are Southwest China, Shandong, Ningxia, and Hebei [30] - **Profitability and Operating Rate of Downstream Products**: The profitability of the BDO product has weakened, and the operating rate is low. The price is in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan. The core reasons for the market downturn are over - capacity and weak demand [31] - **View on Methanol Price**: The company expects that the methanol price in Xinjiang will not return to the high level at the beginning of the year in the second half of this year due to increased supply and a more relaxed supply - demand pattern [33] - **Problems and Challenges**: The company lacks railway transportation qualifications and is limited by storage tank capacity, which restricts inventory adjustment and price - fluctuation response [34] - **Transportation and Cost Optimization Strategies**: It plans to obtain railway transportation qualifications and explore cooperation with national pipelines for transportation. It will also optimize procurement and inventory strategies to control costs [35] 3.2 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise B - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol and downstream enterprise. After technological transformation, its methanol production capacity has reached 900,000 tons/year, but it is restricted by storage tank capacity and has high export pressure [36] - **Profitability and Operating Rate of Downstream Products**: The BDO industry is in a slump, with over - capacity, weak demand, and price decline, leading to losses and production cuts. The company plans to commission an acetic acid plant and install an acetic anhydride plant, which is expected to make a small profit [37] - **Strategic Planning and Future Strategies**: It explores a pricing mechanism based on the mainland's long - term contract settlement model, extends the industrial chain through methanol - to - ethanol projects, and promotes cooperation with enterprises like Geely to increase demand [38][39][40] - **Outlook on the Xinjiang Methanol Market**: The company expects that the methanol price in Xinjiang will not return to the high level at the beginning of the year in the second half of this year. In the long term, the industry may gradually get out of trouble with the promotion of methanol fuel applications and industrial chain extension [41] 3.3 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise C - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol downstream enterprise with two 100,000 - ton formaldehyde production lines, consuming about 100,000 tons of methanol annually [42] - **Profitability and Operating Rate**: Only formaldehyde can make a small profit, and the other three products are slightly in the red. The overall production load is about 70% [43] - **Future Planning**: It plans to build methanol storage and trading businesses to better handle price fluctuations and provide potential opportunities for industry cooperation [44] 3.4 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise D - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale chemical enterprise covering coal and coal - chemical industries, with 5 coal mines and production capacities of about 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 500,000 tons of urea, 300,000 tons of methanol, and 60,000 tons of melamine [45] - **Profitability and Business Planning**: The profitability of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde has declined since May due to the weakening of the national methanol price. The formaldehyde production line's operating rate has dropped to about 70% [46] - **Discussion on Downstream Application Market Expansion**: Methanol vehicles are expected to create incremental demand for methanol. The company also plans to extend the urea industrial chain and explore emerging fields such as methanol - to - olefins and green methanol [47][48] 3.5 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise E - **Enterprise Information**: It currently has a methanol output of about 500,000 tons, with a 100,000 - ton MTG (methanol - to - gasoline) device and a 60,000 - ton polyoxymethylene device under construction. In the future, it will use all its methanol self - sufficiently [49] - **Operating Conditions**: Last year, its production and sales were good, but the export volume decreased due to self - use. The MTG gasoline can basically break even, and the POM product is mainly sold to East and South China, with the market demand yet to be further observed [50] - **Discussion on Energy Prices**: The coal purchase price is in the range of 80 - 170 yuan/ton (including tax at the mine mouth), and the cost increases after adding freight. New energy projects in the Northwest have replaced some coal demand [51] 3.6 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise F - **Enterprise Information**: After technological transformation, its designed methanol production capacity has reached 1 million tons/year [52] - **Operating Conditions**: It uses a "two - on - one - standby" configuration of three furnaces, currently operating only one with a daily output of about 3,000 tons and an operating rate of about 50%. The methanol quality is high [53] - **Inventory Status**: It currently has zero inventory, but inventory pressure may increase if downstream demand is insufficient after double - furnace operation [54] - **View on the Downstream Market**: The demand for traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and acetic acid has decreased by about 10% due to the real - estate slump [55] - **Transportation Radius and Storage Layout**: The transportation radius within Xinjiang is 300 - 500 kilometers, and the long - distance transportation cost is high. It plans to build a 70,000 - ton warehouse for export storage and trading [56] - **Cost Difference between Coal - to - Methanol and Natural - Gas - to - Methanol**: The cash cost of coal - to - methanol in the Northwest is about 1,300 - 1,500 yuan/ton, while the cost of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest is about 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton [57] - **View on Methanol Price**: In the short term (June - August), the market may oscillate due to postponed maintenance and the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, it depends on macro - economic recovery and methanol - fuel policy implementation [58] 4. Investment Recommendations - Considering the cost side, the coal price in Xinjiang has dropped compared to the same period last year. Since the price is already at a relatively low level, the subsequent decline of Xinjiang methanol is expected to be limited, and the price has support [4][59]