盐湖等前期检修装置陆续重启，MTO行业整体维持高位开工，中原乙烯烯烃装置后期存在停车预期，其他 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 装置运行稳定，短期行业开工率或稍有下降。MA2601合约短线预计在2270-2350区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2290 | -38 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -56 | -22 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇 ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-09-30 注外轮卸货速度及提货量变动。需求方面，华东地区烯烃企业整体负荷略有提升，神华新疆以及宁夏宝丰 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 三期装置重启，带动上周国内甲醇制烯烃开工率继续提升，关注青海盐湖烯烃装置本周是否重启。国庆假 免责声明 期期间关注伊朗装置的开工情况以及伊朗政府对冬季限气的相关消息。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2328 | ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-09-25 注外轮卸货速度及提货量变动。需求方面，华东地区烯烃企业整体负荷略有提升，神华新疆以及宁夏宝丰 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 三期装置重启，带动本周国内甲醇制烯烃开工率继续提升，关注青海盐湖烯烃装置下周是否重启。MA2601 免责声明 合约短线预计在2300-2380区间波动。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2356 | 5 甲醇1- ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-09-24 有提升，宁夏宝丰三期以及神华新疆烯烃装置预计本周重启，行业开工率或继续提升。MA2601合约短线预 计在2300-2380区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2351 | 8 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -28 | 4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 929200 | -38232 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -134839 | 105 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory level of methanol in the mainland is still at a relatively low level, while the port inventory increased slightly last week. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu remained good, and the restart of olefin plants in Zhejiang supported the recovery of consumption capacity. With reduced unloading, the inventory in East China decreased, while the inventory in South China continued to accumulate. The short - term volume of incoming foreign vessels is still at a relatively high level, and it is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to accumulate next week. The specific accumulation range depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the提货 volume. In terms of demand, after the shutdown of the olefin plant in Qinghai Salt Lake and the restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing plant, the olefin operating rate increased last week. The olefin plants of Ningxia Baofeng Phase III and Shenhua Xinjiang are expected to restart this week, and the industry operating rate may continue to increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2343 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 967432 lots, an increase of 20442 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 145357 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8922, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2245 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2080 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 260 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 283 euros/ton, a decrease of 3 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 66 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.11 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 107.39 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 48.39 tons, an increase of 2.31 tons. The methanol import profit was 3.69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 175.98 tons, an increase of 65.71 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 340500 tons, a decrease of 2100 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 79.91%, a decrease of 4.67 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 42.92%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 6.29%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 82.41%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 63.57%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 83.81%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 987 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 11.35%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.5%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options of methanol was 15.67%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of September 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%. As of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 1.56 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.31 tons. The port inventory fluctuated slightly this week. As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 84.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.23% [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2376 | 1 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -21 | 1 -17656 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 836608 | 31213 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -166333 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10781 | -5350 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2275 | -20 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2115 | -20 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 160 | 0 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -101 | -21 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 265 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 326 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 292 | -1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -61 | 0 | | 上游情况 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The port methanol inventory is expected to continue accumulating due to high foreign vessel arrivals and weak downstream demand, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention. The olefin industry's operating rate is expected to increase after the restart of the Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin olefin plant to full - load operation. It is recommended to wait and see for the MA2601 contract, paying attention to the support level around 2370 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2391 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 106 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 686,276 lots, an increase of 20,648 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 117,839 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10,766, a decrease of 202 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2270 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2075 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 121 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 261 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 272 euros/ton, unchanged. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 63 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 2.91 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 68.7 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons; in South China ports, it is 33.48 tons, an increase of 5.13 tons. The methanol import profit is 41.49 yuan/ton, down 8.38 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 295,600 tons, an increase of 1900 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, an increase of 0.79% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, an increase of 0.43%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, an increase of 1.82%; the acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, an increase of 1.82%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, a decrease of 3.23%; the olefin operating rate is 83.12%, a decrease of 0.77%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 957 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.82%, down 1.82%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.41%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 14.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.41%, an increase of 2.3% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 13, the total methanol port inventory in China was 102.18 tons, an increase of 9.63 tons. The sample production enterprise inventory was 29.56 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons, a 0.64% increase; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 21.94 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons, an 8.90% decrease. As of August 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 84.71%, a 0.41% decrease [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels at ports will remain high, and downstream demand will remain weak. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports will continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs attention [2]. - After hedging, the olefin industry's开工 rate decreased slightly this week. As the olefin plant of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin restarts and operates at full capacity, the olefin industry's开工 rate will increase [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480 in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was -95 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 255,572 lots, a decrease of 52,659 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -102,203 lots, a decrease of 465 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 11,168, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 269 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 331 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 266 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was -62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.82 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 68.70 million tons, an increase of 4.50 million tons; the inventory at South China ports was 33.48 million tons, an increase of 5.13 million tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 45.99 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7 yuan; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 billion tons, a decrease of 72.1 million tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the methanol enterprise's开工 rate was 81.61%, a decrease of 3.75 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde's开工 rate was 41.62%, a decrease of 1.67 percentage points; the dimethyl ether's开工 rate was 5.33%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid's开工 rate was 89.24%, a decrease of 2.16 percentage points; the MTBE's开工 rate was 66.62%, a decrease of 1.17 percentage points [2]. - The olefin's开工 rate was 83.89%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin's on - disk profit was -1020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 25.39%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.27%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 2.06%, a decrease of 12.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.11%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of August 13, the total methanol inventory at Chinese ports was 1.0218 billion tons, an increase of 96.3 million tons from the previous period. East and South China ports both saw inventory accumulation [2]. - As of August 13, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons, a 0.64% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 219,400 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons, an 8.90% decrease [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 84.71%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points [2]. Suggestions - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Report Overview - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated August 12, 2025, providing comprehensive data and analysis on the methanol market [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2520 in the short - term. The overall methanol production decreased slightly recently as the output from restored capacity was less than the loss from检修 and production cuts. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased significantly. After offsetting the operations of various enterprise devices, the olefin industry's开工 rate increased slightly last week but is expected to decline this week due to the expected shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin device [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2391 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 105 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 344,949 lots, down 27,812 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 101,738 lots, down 8,751 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11,168, up 1080 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2370 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2102.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference was 267.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 21 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. CFR China Main Port was 269 dollars/ton (unchanged), CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton (unchanged), FOB Rotterdam was 265 euros/ton, down 5 euros, and the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference was - 64 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 2.98 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.02 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 64.2 tons (weekly), up 7 tons; in South China ports, it was 28.35 tons (weekly), up 4.71 tons. The methanol import profit was 32.79 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 293,700 tons (weekly), down 30,800 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 81.61%, down 3.75% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 41.62% (weekly), down 1.67%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.33% (weekly, unchanged); the acetic acid operating rate was 89.24% (weekly), down 2.16%; the MTBE operating rate was 66.62% (weekly), down 1.17%; the olefin operating rate was 83.89% (weekly), down 1.38%. The methanol - to - olefin's on - paper profit was - 848 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 24.9%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.11%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.85%, up 3.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.85%, up 3.03% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 6, the total methanol port inventory in China was 92.55 tons, up 11.71 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw inventory increases. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 29.37 tons, down 3.08 tons (a 9.50% decrease), and the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, up 1.01 tons (a 4.37% increase). As of August 7, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device's capacity utilization rate was 85.11%, up 1.5% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2500 in the short - term. Recently, the domestic methanol output has decreased slightly as the output from restored production capacity is less than the loss from maintenance and production cuts. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased significantly. After the offset of various enterprise device operations, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly last week, but it is expected to decline this week due to the expected shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin device [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2389 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 96 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 372,761 lots, down 34,313 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 92,987 lots, up 3,094 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10,088, up 1,400 [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2365 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2092.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 272.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 269 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.08 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 64.2 tons, up 7 tons; in South China ports, it is 28.35 tons, up 4.71 tons. The import profit of methanol is 42.79 yuan/ton, up 2.8 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 293,700 tons, down 30,800 tons. The methanol enterprise's start - up rate is 81.61%, down 3.75 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 41.62%, down 1.67 percentage points; dimethyl ether is 5.33%, unchanged; acetic acid is 89.24%, down 2.16 percentage points; MTBE is 66.62%, down 1.17 percentage points; olefin is 83.89%, down 1.38 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 872 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 25.24%, down 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 25.39%, down 2.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.83%, down 1.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.82%, down 1.04 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw inventory increases. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons from the previous period, a 9.50% decline; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons from the previous period, a 4.37% increase. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.11%, a 1.5% increase [2]