| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2365 | 186 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -2 | 52 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 942819 | -34450 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -111823 | 84915 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8931 | -48 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2145 | -35 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1835 | 5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 310 | -30 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -34 | -4 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 259 | -4 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 289 | 0 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -63 | -4 | | 上游情况 | NY ...

甲醇产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2249 | -36 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -38 | -19 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 795241 | 49800 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -133938 | -54682 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 9929 | -65 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2220 | 20 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1867.5 | 17.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 352.5 | NAN 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -65 | -77 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 269 | 5 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 299 | -1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/ ...

之后周均开工仍有走低，随着宁波富德MTO装置负荷提升，短期MTO行业开工预计稍有上涨。MA2605合约 短线预计在2220-2300区间波动，短期大宗商品价格受宏观情绪影响较大，建议观望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 甲醇产业日报 2026-02-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2252 | -68 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -26 | -2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 813310 | -13790 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -129806 | -3014 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7103 | -50 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2220 | -30 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic methanol production decreased this week as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output from restored capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. The MTO device has been operating stably this week with no obvious change plans, and the weekly average operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2170 - 2270 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2209 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is -23 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 848,962 lots, an increase of 18,039 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -169,532 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,075, a decrease of 280 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2210 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1820 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 365 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 1 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 262 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is -61 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.89 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.78 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. The import profit of methanol is -20.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.89 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.23%, an increase of 0.16%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.74%, an increase of 0.78%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 78.4%, an increase of 1.41%; the operating rate of MTBE is 67.57%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 85.77%, a decrease of 2.29%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is -942 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.77%, a decrease of 0.5%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.78%, a decrease of 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.53%, a decrease of 1.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.53%, a decrease of 1.66% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 21st, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% - As of January 21st, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.58 tons - As of January 15th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing has stopped, and some enterprises are still operating at a reduced load [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2170 - 2270 in the short - term. Although the methanol inventory at ports has decreased, the total inventory is still at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's weekly average operating rate is expected to decline, and currently, the MTO devices are operating stably with no obvious change plans [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2206 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 830923 hands, a decrease of 27596 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 168939 hands. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8355, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia is 1832.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 367.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 262 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 61 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons. The inventory at South China ports is 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. - The import profit of methanol is - 13.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.21 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 450900 tons, an increase of 3200 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.23%, an increase of 0.16%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.74%, an increase of 0.78%. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 78.4%, an increase of 1.41%. The operating rate of MTBE is 67.57%, unchanged. - The operating rate of olefins is 85.77%, a decrease of 2.29%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 957 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.27%, an increase of 0.42%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of methanol is 22.09%. - The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.86%, a decrease of 3.35%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of methanol is 22.19%, a decrease of 3.25% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 8.44 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.75 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing entered the parking state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. Although the port methanol inventory has decreased, the total volume remains at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate continued to decline this week, and the average weekly operating rate is expected to drop next week [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2273 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 829,376 lots, an increase of 5,592 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 170,691 lots, a decrease of 24,096 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,355, an increase of 700 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port was 268 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 22.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 450,900 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 91.42%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 34.07%, a decrease of 4.17 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 2.96%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 76.99%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 88.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points; the disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1027 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.16%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.12%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 27.55%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 27.56%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of January 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China decreased. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The Zhejiang Xingxing MTO plant entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 14th, China's methanol port inventory decreased significantly due to a small total unloading volume, but the overall volume remains at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. [3] - Although the load of many MTO enterprises in East China was reduced last week, the load of inland enterprises increased, resulting in a slight increase in the weekly average operation of domestic methanol - to - olefins. With the implementation of the later East China MTO maintenance plan, there is an expectation of a load reduction in the short - term MTO industry. [3] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The open interest of the main methanol contract was 823,784 lots, a decrease of 6,246 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 146,595 lots, an increase of 18,580 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 7,655, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2255 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 33 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at China's main port was 268 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, with no change. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, with no change; the price difference between China's main port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.38 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.1233 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 76,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 413,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,400 tons. [3] - The methanol import profit was - 32.17 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.22 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises was 450,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 34.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.17 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 2.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points. [3] - The acetic acid operating rate was 76.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.31 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 67.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points. [3] - The olefin operating rate was 88.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 1074 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 percentage points. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 25.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 25.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 14th, the inventory of China's sampled methanol production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%; the orders to be delivered by sampled enterprises were 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [3] - As of January 14th, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 17,500 tons. [3] - Recently, the production loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the production increase due to recovery, resulting in an overall decrease in production. [3] - As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has decreased recently as the capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The average weekly operating rate of domestic methanol-to-olefins has increased slightly due to the offset between the load reduction of multiple MTO enterprises in East China and the load increase of inland enterprises. With the implementation of the later maintenance plan of East China MTO, there is an expectation of a short - term load reduction in the MTO industry. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. In January, there is an expectation of a decrease in imports, and the port methanol inventory may decline from a high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2263 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest of methanol is 863591 lots, an increase of 50636 lots. The net long order volume of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 173209 lots. The number of warehouse receipts of methanol is 7655 sheets [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1847.5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 382.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 43 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 266 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 112.33 tons, an increase of 7.62 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.39 tons, a decrease of 1.64 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 22.95 yuan/ton, down 1.93 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 447700 tons, an increase of 25100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.42%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.07%, down 4.17 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 2.96%, down 0.64 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid is 76.99%, down 3.31 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 67.57%, down 0.44 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins is 88.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points. The disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1029 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.42%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.79%, up 0.48 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of methanol is 23.68%, up 1.82 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of methanol is 23.7%, up 1.85 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of January 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 44.77 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.75 tons, an increase of 2.95 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16%. As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 153.72 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 5.72 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.64 tons. The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, mainly in Zhejiang. As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62% [3].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025 - 12 - 25 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [3] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Main contract closing price of methanol: 2162 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - 5 - 9 spread of methanol: 7 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - Main contract open interest of methanol: 794,131 lots, down 3,810 lots [3] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: -142,531 lots, down 32,156 lots [3] - Warehouse receipt quantity of methanol: 6,748 sheets, unchanged [3] Spot Market - Price in Jiangsu Taicang: 2150 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [3] - Price in Inner Mongolia: 1870 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [3] - East - Northwest spread: 280 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Basis of Zhengzhou methanol main contract: -22 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3] - CFR China Main Port: 252 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [3] - CFR Southeast Asia: 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - FOB Rotterdam: 253 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton [3] - China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread: -68 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas: 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory: 100.73 tons, up 20.77 tons [3] - South China port inventory: 40.52 tons, down 1.4 tons [3] - Methanol import profit: 4.53 yuan/ton, up 1.39 yuan/ton [3] - Import volume: 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons [3] - Inland enterprise inventory: 404,000 tons, up 12,900 tons [3] - Methanol enterprise operating rate: 90.52%, up 0.71% [3] Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate: 42.58%, up 1.09% [3] - Dimethyl ether operating rate: 7.09%, down 1.89% [3] - Acetic acid operating rate: 76.51%, up 2.62% [3] - MTBE operating rate: 68.9%, down 0.85% [3] Option Market - Olefin operating rate: 89.51%, down 0.44% [3] - Methanol - to - olefin disk profit: -1020 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [3] - 20 - day historical volatility: 13.78%, up 0.1% [3] - 40 - day historical volatility: 14.81%, down 0.02% [3] - At - the - money call option implied volatility: 17.92%, down 0.15% [3] - At - the - money put option implied volatility: 17.93%, down 0.14% [3] Group 3: Industry News - As of December 24, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 40.40 tons, up 3.28% from the previous period; sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 19.36 tons, down 12.16% from the previous period [3] - As of December 24, China's total methanol port inventory was 141.25 tons, up 19.37 tons from the previous data. East China had inventory build - up, while South China had inventory drawdown. The significant inventory build - up in ports was mainly due to more output from restored capacity than capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts, increasing overall production and market supply [3] - As of December 25, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 88.68%, down 0.44%. The load of MTO enterprises in East China and Northwest decreased slightly, and the weekly average industry operating rate continued to decline [3] Group 4: Core Views - Inland enterprise inventory increased. In the short - term, with relatively abundant supply, weak winter demand expectations are unfavorable for upstream production end sales, and inventory is expected to increase overall [3] - Methanol port inventory increased significantly this week, mainly in Jiangsu. Weakening inland market led to weaker提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu, contributing to significant inventory accumulation. Next week, the arrival volume of foreign vessels will remain high, and import demand may remain weak. Port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase, subject to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and specific提货 volume changes [3] - The load of MTO enterprises in East China and Northwest decreased slightly, and the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry operating rate continued to decline this week. In the short - term, individual enterprises in East China and Northwest will continue to reduce their loads, and the industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short - term [3] Group 5: Suggestions - Pay attention to the inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate due to a slight decline in inland enterprise inventory and abundant supply in the main production areas. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, and the future situation of foreign vessel unloading should be continuously monitored. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2129 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 price difference is - 50 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 896,627 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 526,136 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 146,999 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,435, with a week - on - week decrease of 188 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2095 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 1960 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between the East and the Northwest is 135 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 34 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese ports is 245 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, both unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 254 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese ports and Southeast Asia is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 83.06 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.82 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.38 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 tons. The methanol import profit is 7.52 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27.08 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.81%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 41.49%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.89%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.27 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 69.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 89.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 931 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 0.55%, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers was 35.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 tons or 2.40%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.22 tons or 13.45%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous period. As of December 11, the overall domestic methanol output increased, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68% [2]