SDICSI 2025 年 11 月 24 日 电力运营商 10 月月度全社会用电量数据发布 事件：国家能源局公布 2025 年 10 月全社会用电量数据。10 月全社会用电量同 比增长 10.4%，增速环比大幅提升 5.9 个百分点；1-10 月全社会用电量累计增速 5.1%，持续回升。根据国家统计局数据，10 月规上工业发电量同比增长 7.9%， 环比大幅提升 6.4 个百分点。我们认为 10 月全社会用电量大幅增长，电力需求 累计增速持续回升。目前港股电力运营商板块整体估值低，业绩增速快于行业增 速，多个股票的股息率超过或接近 6%；煤炭价格走低，对火电盈利有支撑。我 们建议投资者关注低估值、高股息、资产优质的电力运营商如中国电力 2380.HK 及华能国际电力 902.HK。 报告摘要 10 月全社会用电量同比增长 10.4%，增速环比大幅提升。根据国家能源局公布 的数据，10 月全社会用电量达到 8572 亿千瓦时，同比增长 10.4%，受季节因素 影响，环比增长降低 3.5%；同比增速较 9 月大幅提升 5.9 个百分点。1-10 月全 社会用电量累计达到 86246 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.1% ...

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华源证券表示，AI运行缺乏足够电力，到2030年全球数据中心电力需求或将达945TWh。2025年11 月3日，微软CEO萨提亚·纳德拉在与OpenAICEO萨姆·奥特曼日前共同接受采访时表示，当前人工智能 行业面临的问题并非算力过剩，而是缺乏足够的电力来支撑所有GPU运行。2024年全球数据中心耗电量 已达415太瓦时，占全球电力消耗的1.5%，相当于英国全年用电总量，这一数字正以每年12%的速度递 增，预计到2030年翻倍至945太瓦时。电力需求的飞速增长或将全球能源系统推向了关键转折点。 电网ETF（561380）跟踪的是恒生A股电网设备指数，该指数从市场中选取电网设备相关领域的上 市公司证券作为指数样本，以综合反映电网设备产业链上市公司证券的整体表现。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 异常高温带动电量加速增长，水电延续强势火电 显著修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 10 月份全国统计口径发电机组发电量同比增长 7.9%，受 10 月中上旬南方异常高温影响，创 下年内单月最高增速。细分来看，用电需求高增叠加清洁能源挤压减弱，火电单月增速大幅转 正，10 月份火电发电量同比增长 7.3%，带动 1-10 月降幅收窄至 0.4%。水电方面，来水持续 改善叠加去年同期基数偏低，水电延续强势表现，10 月发电量同比提升 28.2%。非水清洁能源 方面，10 月风况延续偏弱叠加基数偏高，风电发电量同比减少 11.9%，降幅扩大 4.3pct，光伏 发电量同比增长 5.9%，增速环比回落 15.2pct；核电发电量同比增长 4.2%，保持稳健增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% % ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Custom Truck One Source reported $482 million in revenue for Q3 2025, an 8% increase year-over-year, with adjusted gross profit of $156 million and adjusted EBITDA of $96 million, reflecting increases of 13% and 20% respectively compared to Q3 2024 [11][4][9] - Average OEC on rent was over $1.26 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, with average utilization at just over 79%, up more than 600 basis points from Q3 2024 [6][11] - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance in the range of $1.97 to $2.06 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $370 to $390 million [18][19] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ERS segment generated $169 million in revenue, up more than 12% from $151 million in Q3 2024, with rental revenue increasing by 18% year-over-year [12][4] - The TES segment reported $275 million in equipment sales, a 6% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 15%, down from the previous year [14][15] - APS business revenue was $38 million, up 3% year-over-year, with an adjusted gross margin over 26% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The utility contractor customers in the ERS segment are experiencing sustained activity levels, driven by increased electricity demand and projected T&D CapEx of approximately $600 billion from 2025 to 2029 [5][4] - The overall annual growth rate of spending in the T&D market is expected to be nearly 10%, with transmission spending projected to grow over 15% annually through 2029 [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest more than previously expected in its rental fleet, with net rental CapEx projected at approximately $250 million for the year [18][19] - Custom Truck One Source aims to reduce inventory by $125 million to $150 million compared to the end of the previous year, targeting a reduction to six months of inventory by the end of fiscal 2026 [18][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about sustained demand in the utility sector and the overall positive business outlook despite macroeconomic uncertainties [9][20] - The company noted that strong year-to-date results and robust order flow support expected growth across its consolidated business [9][20] Other Important Information - The company has seen a significant increase in signed orders, with a year-over-year growth of over 30% in the TES segment [7][39] - Management highlighted the importance of long-term relationships with strategic suppliers and a diversified customer base as key to success [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility for 2026 to sustain momentum - Management noted strong demand in the utility sector, particularly in transmission, and investments made in Q3 are expected to support growth into 2026 [22][23] Question: Clarification on inventory reduction timing - Management clarified that the $125 million to $150 million reduction in inventory is expected by the end of the current year, with a target of six months of inventory by the end of next fiscal year [27][29] Question: Update on utility T&D customers' project execution - Management confirmed that distribution and transmission projects are back on track, with good demand for new equipment [33][34] Question: Drivers of organic growth within TES - Management indicated strong demand from utility and forestry contractors, with a notable increase in signed orders [35][39] Question: Update on large transmission pipeline projects - Management reported good demand for transmission utilization and ongoing projects that are driving demand [42][43]

Core Viewpoint - CenterPoint Energy plans to invest a record $65 billion by 2035 to expand its power grid capacity, enhance resilience, and digitize operations in response to significant growth in electricity demand, particularly in Texas [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Plans - The $65 billion investment is part of a ten-year infrastructure plan focused on grid capacity expansion, resilience strengthening, and digitalization [1][5]. - CenterPoint forecasts a nearly 50% increase in peak load demand for its Houston utility by 2031, potentially doubling to around 42 GW in the next decade [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in electricity demand is driven by major tech companies like Tesla, Microsoft, Google, and Meta establishing and expanding AI data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations, and large-scale industrial manufacturing [1][4]. - The electricity demand from AI data centers is expected to significantly increase, with projections indicating a doubling of peak electricity demand in the next five years [1][4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity demand will more than double by 2030, reaching approximately 945 TWh, with AI applications being the primary driver of this growth [4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 165% increase in global electricity demand by 2030 due to the rapid rise of AI data centers, necessitating changes in infrastructure and energy strategies [4]. Group 4: Company Performance - CenterPoint Energy's stock has surged nearly 30% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, driven by unprecedented valuation expansion in the utility sector due to AI data center demand [2]. - The company has raised its annual earnings forecast and aims for a long-term growth target of 7% to 9% before 2028, maintaining this growth rate until 2035 [1].

Group 1 - Constellation Energy's stock price experienced a slight decline of 3.02%, but reached a new high since August 2025 during intraday trading, indicating market activity and investor optimism about the company's prospects [1] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce recently rated Constellation Energy and several other U.S. independent power producers as "outperform," boosting market confidence and attracting investor attention [1] - Analyst Andrew Weisel highlighted Constellation Energy's strong performance across various industry metrics, particularly its competitive power plant portfolio amid high electricity demand, and noted its innovative strategies in data center contracts and organic growth [1] Group 2 - NRG Energy was rated as a "value pick" despite lacking the highest quality assets, while Vistra Energy was described as a "straightforward and high-quality" company with a compelling growth story and attractive asset portfolio [2] - The Canadian bank expressed confidence in the future of the entire electricity sector, emphasizing the increasing competition among companies as electricity demand grows, particularly in data centers and renewable energy [2] - Investors are encouraged to closely monitor the developments of companies like Constellation Energy, as they are expected to deliver substantial returns in a rapidly changing electricity market driven by strong demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in electricity consumption in China, indicating robust economic growth and the emergence of new industries, particularly in high-tech and renewable sectors [2][4][5]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption Data - In July, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, and the first time it surpassed the trillion-kilowatt-hour mark in a month [2]. - The average temperature in July was the highest since 1961, contributing to record electricity loads and a 18.0% increase in residential electricity consumption, which totaled 2,039 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. - From January to July, the second industry's electricity consumption was 37,400 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, and July alone saw a 4.7% increase [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Growth - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a 4.6% increase in electricity consumption from January to July, outpacing the average growth of the manufacturing sector by 2.3 percentage points [3]. - The new energy vehicle manufacturing sector experienced a remarkable 25.7% increase in electricity consumption [3]. - The third industry's electricity consumption reached 11,300 billion kilowatt-hours from January to July, with a 7.8% year-on-year increase, and July's consumption grew by 10.7% [4]. Group 3: Future Projections - The China Electricity Council anticipates that electricity consumption growth in the second half of the year will exceed that of the first half, projecting a 5% to 6% increase in total electricity consumption by 2025 [4][5]. - By 2030, total electricity consumption is expected to exceed 13,000 billion kilowatt-hours, driven by the growth of new industries such as computing infrastructure and hydrogen production [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the economic focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development will remain unchanged through 2025, leading to sustained growth in electricity demand [1] - The record high temperatures since June have resulted in continuous breakthroughs in peak electricity load, indicating strong resilience in electricity demand growth [1] - The expectation for electricity demand growth to outpace GDP growth in 2025 is supported by new productive forces, secondary industry exports, and residential consumption [1] Group 2 - The growth in electricity demand is expected to drive investment in power equipment and power generation industries [1] - The investment in power equipment is anticipated to resonate with the demand for primary network infrastructure and base-load supportive power generation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities emphasizes that the economic focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development will remain unchanged through 2025, with electricity demand expected to continue growing at a rate that outpaces GDP growth due to new productive forces, secondary industry exports, and residential consumption [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Electricity Demand - The peak electricity load has been consistently breaking records since June due to historical high temperatures, indicating strong electricity demand [1] - The expectation for electricity demand growth remains robust, driven by various factors including new productive forces and residential consumption [1] Industry Trends - The growth in electricity demand is anticipated to stimulate investment in power equipment and power supply equipment industries [1] - There is a positive outlook for the power equipment sector, particularly in relation to the investment in main distribution networks and the demand for base-load supportive power sources [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hongyuan Co., Ltd. (920018.BJ) has initiated its subscription with an issue price of 9.17 CNY per share and a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.34, focusing on the development, production, and sales of electromagnetic wires, primarily used in high-voltage and large-capacity power transmission equipment [1]. Company Overview - Hongyuan Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of various types of electromagnetic wires, including switch wires, paper-wrapped wires, enamelled wires, and composite wires [1]. - The company's products are mainly applied in large power transmission equipment such as high-voltage transformers, converter transformers, and reactors [1]. - Major clients include significant manufacturers in the power transmission sector, such as Tebian Electric Apparatus, China XD Electric, and Hitachi Energy [1]. Industry Insights - According to the IEA Power Market Report, global electricity demand grew by approximately 2.2% in 2023, with an expected average growth rate of 3.4% annually until 2026 [1]. - From 2012 to 2023, the cumulative capacity of high-voltage transformers (220kV and above) in China increased from 262,365 million kVA to 542,400 million kVA, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.83% [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of approximately 1.311 billion CNY, 1.461 billion CNY, and 2.072 billion CNY for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [2]. - Net profits for the same years were approximately 49.997 million CNY, 64.466 million CNY, and 101.631 million CNY [2]. - The total assets of the company as of December 31, 2024, are projected to be approximately 1.349 billion CNY, with total equity of about 543.338 million CNY [4]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 2023 was reported at 8.54%, with a net profit margin of 4.42% [4].