SDICSI 2025 年 11 月 24 日 电力运营商 10 月月度全社会用电量数据发布 事件：国家能源局公布 2025 年 10 月全社会用电量数据。10 月全社会用电量同 比增长 10.4%，增速环比大幅提升 5.9 个百分点；1-10 月全社会用电量累计增速 5.1%，持续回升。根据国家统计局数据，10 月规上工业发电量同比增长 7.9%， 环比大幅提升 6.4 个百分点。我们认为 10 月全社会用电量大幅增长，电力需求 累计增速持续回升。目前港股电力运营商板块整体估值低，业绩增速快于行业增 速，多个股票的股息率超过或接近 6%；煤炭价格走低，对火电盈利有支撑。我 们建议投资者关注低估值、高股息、资产优质的电力运营商如中国电力 2380.HK 及华能国际电力 902.HK。 报告摘要 10 月全社会用电量同比增长 10.4%，增速环比大幅提升。根据国家能源局公布 的数据，10 月全社会用电量达到 8572 亿千瓦时，同比增长 10.4%，受季节因素 影响，环比增长降低 3.5%；同比增速较 9 月大幅提升 5.9 个百分点。1-10 月全 社会用电量累计达到 86246 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.1% ...

Summary of North International's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: North International - **Industry**: Power Generation and Engineering, Resource Supply Chain Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, North International reported a revenue of 9.9 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 485 million yuan, showing a positive trend compared to Q2 2025 with a 30% increase in net profit [3][2][4] - The overall sales volume of coking coal in the first three quarters reached 3.76 million tons, with Q3 alone contributing 1.5 million tons [7][2] Project Contributions - The Croatian project has stable electricity generation and favorable pricing, significantly contributing to profits [2][3] - The Laos Nantai power station benefited from a decrease in USD interest rates, accelerating repayments and improving profits [2][3] - The integrated mining project in Mongolia gained from a rebound in coal prices, providing a profit cushion [2][3] Market Outlook - The coking coal market experienced a downturn in H1 2025, negatively impacting performance, but prices began to rebound in Q3, leading to optimistic projections for Q4 sales [6][8] - Analysts expect coking coal prices to stabilize and recover, which would further support profits from the Mongolian project [8][6] Future Development Strategy - North International plans to focus on stable growth over the next five years, emphasizing the construction of renewable energy power stations in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia [2][5] - The company aims to enhance its power operation segment and invest in energy storage for the Croatian project [5][14] International Projects - The Bangladesh thermal power station has one unit ready for commercial operation, with another expected to complete testing by January 2026, projected to generate profits of 200 to 300 million yuan in 2026 [4][13] - The company has signed a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for the Bangladesh project, ensuring a defined pricing model and addressing local electricity demand [12][4] Market Expansion - North International has not yet entered the North American market due to the complexity of policies and resources compared to its traditional markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [16][14] - The company is focusing on wind, solar, and energy storage projects in its key markets, which are supported by favorable policies and abundant resources [15][14] Competitive Landscape - The overseas construction market is becoming increasingly competitive, with North International leveraging its platform model to integrate domestic resources and achieve breakthroughs in new markets [17][2] Dividend Policy - Following a significant 72% increase in dividends for 2024, North International aims for a modest increase in 2025, maintaining a stable growth approach [18][2]

Group 1: Investment Plans and Strategies - The company plans to expand its overseas renewable energy power asset layout and explore investment opportunities in energy storage projects to enhance the efficiency and stability of its power operations [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the company will focus on international engineering transformation, renewable energy investments, and extending its industrial chain through overseas investments [2] Group 2: Performance and Financial Highlights - In the first three quarters, the power operation segment showed stable performance with a cumulative power generation of 289 million kWh from the Croatia Sene Wind Project, maintaining an average electricity price of €0.099 per kWh [3] - The company has achieved a cash dividend ratio of 15% for the 2024 fiscal year, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year, with a total cash dividend amounting to ¥158 million, reflecting a 72.55% year-on-year growth [3][4] Group 3: Corporate Governance and Shareholder Relations - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy, achieving 17 consecutive years of cash dividends, and aims to balance long-term strategic development with shareholder returns [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, North International (000065), is actively engaging with institutional investors to enhance communication and improve its operational quality, focusing on its role in international engineering and capacity cooperation, particularly in relation to the Belt and Road Initiative [2][3]. Group 1: Company Positioning and Strategy - The company is positioned as a key player in supporting national strategies, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to strengthen its international operations in civilian products [2]. - North International leverages its Norinco brand and overseas investment network to establish a strong presence in key markets, especially along the Belt and Road, focusing on energy, resource, and industrial engineering projects [3]. - The company emphasizes a market-oriented approach to resource integration, maintaining close partnerships with leading global enterprises to enhance its operational capabilities [4]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has implemented an investment-driven transformation, integrating investment, construction, and operation to enhance its management capabilities and achieve good returns on investment projects [5]. - A high-quality, professional talent pool familiar with international operations supports the company's ability to manage overseas projects effectively [6]. - The company adopts a localized operational strategy, establishing a comprehensive management system to support its international business across various countries [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 9.915 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.79%, and a net profit of 485 million, down 36.02% [12]. - The company’s electricity operation segment showed stable performance, with significant growth in generation and revenue, particularly from projects in Croatia and Laos [8][9]. - The company plans to continue expanding its overseas electricity asset portfolio and explore new revenue channels, enhancing the profitability and strategic value of its electricity operations [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - The company has a long-standing commitment to stable shareholder returns, with a cash dividend ratio of 15% for 2024, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year, amounting to 158 million, a 72.55% increase year-on-year [11]. - Future dividend policies will balance operational funding needs with shareholder returns, aiming to gradually enhance dividend levels [11].

Group 1: Investor Activity Overview - On November 4, 2025, Northern International Cooperation Co., Ltd. participated in an investor communication event organized by China Ordnance Industry Group in Xi'an, receiving five institutional investors [1] Group 2: Core Business Insights - Northern International positions itself as a key player in the "Belt and Road" initiative, focusing on international engineering and capacity cooperation, and aims to enhance the internationalization of the group's civilian products [2] - The company highlighted five core competitive advantages: brand and market advantage, global resource integration capability, investment-driven and integrated operation advantage, high-quality international talent support, and localized operational advantages [2] Group 3: Power Operations Performance - The power operations segment has shown strong performance, with the Croatia wind power project generating 289 million kWh in the first three quarters, and the average electricity price maintained at 9.9 euro cents per kWh, leading to significant revenue growth [3] - The Laos hydropower project saw a substantial profit increase due to accelerated loan principal repayment and decreased interest expenses [3] - The company plans to expand its overseas quality power asset layout, focusing on European renewable energy investments and exploring new revenue channels such as energy storage projects and virtual power plants [3] Group 4: Mining Business Transformation - Northern International is transitioning from a traditional EPC contractor to a comprehensive service provider across the entire mining industry chain, extending its business scope from construction to mining operations and support services [4] - The company aims to strengthen its integrated industry chain advantages and enhance its core competitiveness in the mining service sector [4] Group 5: Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy with cash dividends for 17 consecutive years, planning a cash dividend payout ratio of 15% for 2024, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year, totaling 158 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 72.55% [5]

Group 1: Company Positioning and Strategy - The company is positioned as a key player in supporting the "Belt and Road" initiative, focusing on international engineering and capacity cooperation [1] - The company aims to enhance its international operations in consumer goods, striving for growth and optimization [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - **Brand Advantage**: Leveraging the Norinco brand and overseas investment network, the company has established a strong presence in key markets, particularly along the "Belt and Road" [2] - **Global Resource Integration**: The company maintains close partnerships with leading enterprises in the global supply chain, fostering a mutually beneficial ecosystem [2] - **Investment-Driven Growth**: The company has implemented an investment-driven transformation, enhancing its project management capabilities and achieving good returns on several projects [2] - **High-Quality Talent Pool**: The company boasts a skilled workforce adept in international operations and project management, crucial for executing overseas projects [2] Group 3: Localization Strategy - The company has established a broad international presence, with operations in dozens of countries across three continents, emphasizing localized strategies tailored to specific markets [3] Group 4: Business Performance - The power operation segment has shown stable growth, with a reported electricity generation of 289 million kWh and an average electricity price of €0.099 per kWh, leading to significant revenue increases [4] - The company plans to expand its overseas power asset portfolio and explore new revenue channels, including energy storage projects [4] Group 5: Future Development and Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a consistent cash dividend policy for 17 years, with a planned cash dividend ratio of 15% for 2024, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year, totaling ¥158 million, a 72.55% increase [5]

Group 1: Power Operations Performance - The company's power operations segment showed stable performance in the first three quarters, with a total power generation of 289 million kWh and an average electricity price of €0.099 per kWh, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in revenue [1] - The Croatia Senj Wind Power Project's generation met expectations, while the Laos Nam Phak Hydropower Station saw accelerated loan principal repayment and reduced interest expenses due to declining USD interest rates, leading to a substantial profit increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Future Development Strategies - The company plans to continue expanding its overseas quality power asset portfolio and explore investments in energy storage projects, enhancing the efficiency and stability of its power operations [1] - The company is actively developing new revenue channels such as green certificate trading and virtual power plants to further enhance the profitability of its power segment [1] Group 3: Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The company's operating cash flow has shown steady growth, attributed to a focus on risk-controlled, timely payment projects and ongoing cost reduction efforts, leading to improved cash flow quality [2] - The company has enhanced inventory turnover efficiency, contributing to the overall improvement in cash flow [2] Group 4: Mining Project Development - The company is transitioning from a pure EPC contractor to a full-service provider in the mining industry, extending its business scope to mining operations and support services, thereby establishing closer, long-term relationships with clients [2] - Future strategies include maintaining an integrated development approach in the mining sector to strengthen and expand its core competitive advantages [2] Group 5: Coal Sales Performance - The company's coal sales in Mongolia improved significantly in Q3, achieving a sales volume of 1.54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32%, with both sales volume and gross profit showing notable improvement compared to the first half of the year [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 212.09 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.802 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.72%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.521 billion yuan, up by 8.32% year-on-year [2][6] Financial Performance - In Q2, the company recorded a revenue of 111.72 billion yuan, which is a 15.35% increase year-on-year. The core businesses in energy, electricity, and water conservancy showed steady growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 18.58% [13] - The overall gross margin for the first half of the year was 11.29%, a decrease of 0.91 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 1.32%, down by 0.11 percentage points year-on-year [13] - The company signed new contracts worth 775.36 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 4.98%. The overseas new contracts increased by 13.74% year-on-year [13] Business Segments - The company’s installed capacity for controlled grid-connected projects reached 20.2871 million kilowatts, with significant contributions from wind and solar power. The traditional energy segment saw a growth of 44.90%, while the new energy segment grew by 5.47% [13] - The company is expected to benefit from major hydropower infrastructure projects, including the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan and the South-to-North Water Diversion West Line project with an estimated investment of 257.6 billion yuan [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak coking coal prices and trade volumes, but maintains a positive outlook on its transformation and future profitability potential [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, down 35% year-over-year (yoy), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million yuan, down 43% yoy [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 3.1 billion yuan, 130 million yuan, and 130 million yuan, respectively, reflecting yoy declines of 43%, 52%, and 51% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's coking coal sales volume in H1 2025 was 2.22 million tons, compared to 3.16 million tons in H1 2024, indicating a significant decrease [2]. - Revenue from engineering, resource equipment supply chain, and power operations in H1 2025 decreased by 25%, 51%, and increased by 55% to 3.1 billion yuan, 2.66 billion yuan, and 330 million yuan, respectively [2]. - The increase in power operations revenue is attributed to better performance from the Croatia wind power project, with generation volumes increasing by 21% yoy [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's overall gross margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 13.1% in H1 2025, with specific margins for engineering, resource equipment supply chain, and power operations at 17.4%, 0.7%, and 70.5%, respectively [3]. - The increase in gross margin is linked to changes in revenue structure and improved profitability of certain projects, such as the Croatia wind power project [3]. - However, the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 4.6% in H1 2025 due to rising fixed costs and reduced foreign exchange contributions [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenues of 20.8 billion yuan, 22.7 billion yuan, and 24.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 9% yoy [4]. - Net profits are projected to be 1.2 billion yuan, 1.3 billion yuan, and 1.41 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 14%, 9%, and 8% yoy [4]. - The company is advancing its integrated investment and operation model, with key projects in Mongolia and Croatia serving as benchmarks for its transformation [4]. - Recent improvements in coking coal prices since H2 2025 may provide better profit elasticity, supporting a "buy" rating with a projected PE of 10x for 2025 [4].

Group 1 - The stock price of the company is 12.19 yuan, down 0.06 yuan or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 277,565 hands and a transaction amount of 336 million yuan [1] - The company operates in four main business areas: engineering construction and services, resource supply chain, power operation, and industrial manufacturing [1] - In the first half of the year, the company made breakthroughs in mid-to-high-end markets in Egypt and the UAE, signing multiple international projects including the Alexandria Abu Qir Metro vehicle project in Egypt [1] Group 2 - The company’s wind power project in Croatia generated 215 million kWh in the first half of the year, while the gold mining project in Nigeria produced 40,300 ounces of gold [1] - The company reported a revenue of 6.735 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 35.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 309 million yuan, down 42.71% year-on-year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly to 147 million yuan [1] Group 3 - The total balance of external guarantees by the company and its subsidiaries is 10.969 billion yuan, accounting for 115.96% of the most recent audited net assets [1]