--- 在很多人印象里，中东似乎是"土豪遍地"的地方。但很少有人知道，在不久前，当地人想要像中国人一样在电商平台上轻松"买买买"，其实非常困难。 这种困境，直到一家来自中国的公司——iMile出现，才被逐渐改变。 中东电商的最大痛点 2022年卡塔尔世界杯期间，很多中东消费者惊讶地发现：自己订购的球衣、球鞋，居然能在一周内送到家门口。而商家也因"物流提速"，收获了大批好评。 要知道，在这之前，中东消费者网购往往需要等待数周甚至数月——哪怕发货地就在隔壁城市。货物常常"神秘消失"，最后不经意才被找到。电商的"最后 一公里"配送，始终是这里最大的难题。 相比之下，中国消费者早已习惯"江浙沪隔日达""偏远地区五日达"。在"石油富国"的中东，这样的速度曾是一种奢望。原因就在于基础设施落后，很多地方 甚至没有明确的门牌号，人们写地址往往是"清真寺旁边""家乐福超市附近"，让配送公司摸不着头脑。 这直接影响了电商市场的发展。2022年，中东电商总额约285亿美元，看似庞大，但只有中国浙江省网购额的7%左右。主要原因就是：货到得慢、甚至收不 到。 国际快递巨头DHL、UPS虽然早已入驻，但同样拿"地址模糊"没办法。再加上中 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：国金证券研究所） 新市场：复制东南亚路径，构筑新增长曲线。2025H1公司在中东、拉美等新兴市场实现收入达3.62亿美 元，同比增长24.3%；包裹量为1.7亿件，同比增长21.7%。新市场电商渗透率提升空间大，中东与非洲 渗透率仅为4%、拉美为10%，未来有望成为公司的新增长曲线。当地平台选择快递服务商，公司已与 多家跨境（Shein、TEMU、TikTok）及本地电商（Mercado Libre）合作。伴随件量提升规模效应释放， 公司新市场业务盈利能力有望改善。 中国："反内卷"下单票价格有望企稳，资源投入助成本改善。2025H1中国区收入为31.37亿美元，同比 增长4.6%；包裹量为106亿件，同比增长20.0%。随着广东等地率先推动快递"反内卷"，行业单票价格 降幅有望缩窄。公司持续加码自建转运中心、干线车辆及自动化设备布局，与"通达系"成本差距持续缩 小至约0.1元，2025年有望进一步下降0.1元，有助于盈利进一步改善。 风险提示 东南亚市场增速不及预期，中国区竞争压力加剧，新市场拓展不及预期，平台客户体系变动，关税风 险，成本控制风险。 目录 一、东南亚快递龙头，业务覆 ...

降息周期开启，周期有何投资机会？20250921 摘要 BDI 指数在历史降息周期中显著上涨，当前干散货运价仍处底部。关注 招商轮船、海通发展等标的，以及在新兴市场具有成长性的嘉友国际。 降息利好新兴市场基建和消费，推动资金流入。看好极兔速递在新兴市 场电商爆发期的发展潜力，尤其是在东南亚和拉美地区。 美元贬值及人民币升值利好航空板块，带来汇兑收益。推荐华夏航空、 港股中的国航、东航、南航，以及 A 股中的吉祥航空和春秋航空。 游轮运价近期大幅上涨，供需关系反转是主因。OPEC 恢复产量， VLOC 游轮交付量减少，美国制裁影响供给。推荐具备游轮和干散货双 重优势的招商轮船。 8 月通达系快递单票价格上涨，9 月涨价区域扩大至全国 90%件量份额 区域，快递行业反内卷成功，业绩有望改善。推荐圆通、申通及极兔速 递。 美联储降息打开国内降息空间，中美关系缓和利好风险偏好。化工行业 PPI 降幅收窄，景气度见底。关注烯烃（宝丰能源、卫星化学）、涤纶、 有机硅（新安股份、三友化工、东岳硅材）和农化（亚钾国际、东方铁 塔）子板块。 市场对有色金属板块看多，预计下周将交易降息预期。铜和黄金预计领 涨，关注紫金矿业、中国 ...

Group 1 - JD Logistics (02618) saw a nearly 5% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 13.91 with a trading volume of HKD 422 million [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for August was 112.3, up 0.3 points from the previous month, marking a new high for the year and indicating six consecutive months of growth [1] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics surpassed 131 points, increasing by 0.5 points from the previous month, indicating accelerated growth [1] Group 2 - Bank of America released a report stating that the express delivery industry in China lacks positive catalysts in the short term due to the effects of price adjustments from the anti-involution trend [1] - JD Logistics is viewed as having a particularly good entry point, as third-quarter profit expectations have been reset [1] - Bank of America maintains a target price of HKD 16 for JD Logistics and has given it a "Buy" rating [1]

8月29日盘后，港股极兔速递公布2025年中期业绩。上半年，公司总收入达到55.0亿美元，同比增长 13.1%，其中，核心业务快递服务收入为53.4亿美元，同比增长12.7%；净利润录得8893.2万美元，去年 同期为3102.6万美元，同比大幅增长186.6%；经调整净利润为1.6亿美元，同比增长147.1%；经调整 EBITDA达到4.4亿美元，同比增长24.2%；经调整EBIT达到2.0亿美元，同比增长65.4%。 今年上半年，极兔速递总包裹量达到139.9亿件，同比增长27%；日均包裹量7690万件。截至2025年6月 30日，极兔在全球共拥有约19200个网点，运营着239个转运中心，配备了337套自动化分拣线。 极兔速递的业务主要集中在东南亚和中国市场，以及部分新市场（包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、墨西哥、 巴西及埃及）。其中，中国市场仍占主要地位，而东南亚市场增长较快，新市场则首次实现EBITDA转 正。 具体来看，上半年，极兔在东南亚市场的包裹量同比增长57.9%至32.3亿件，市场份额由去年同期的 27.4%增加5.4个百分点至32.8%，连续6年稳居行业首位。报告期内，极兔在东南亚市场的收入同比 ...

Core Insights - The launch of the Silk Road e-commerce train (X387) from Xi'an to Urumqi has surpassed 500 trips since its inaugural run on March 26, 2024, transporting a total of 20,619 freight cars of e-commerce goods, significantly enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing costs for e-commerce companies [1][2] Group 1: Operational Efficiency - The X387 train operates daily, departing at 9:09 AM from Xi'an International Port and reaching Urumqi in an average of 36.18 hours, with a speed of 120 km/h [1] - The train service reduces transportation time by approximately 5 hours compared to road transport and lowers logistics costs by 10%, while also significantly decreasing cargo damage rates, resulting in a 70% increase in customer satisfaction [1] Group 2: Customer and Service Expansion - The number of clients for the Silk Road e-commerce train has grown from 3 to 10 stable partners, including major brands like JD.com, SF Express, and others, indicating a rising brand appeal [2] - The variety of transported goods has expanded from 650 to over 2,000 types, covering sectors such as auto parts and daily necessities [2] - The introduction of a mixed booking model (contract and open booking) has enhanced service flexibility, allowing even single shipments to be sent, which attracts more scattered cargo sources [2] Group 3: Performance During Peak Seasons - The train service has successfully completed the transportation of over 20 million express parcels, particularly excelling during peak sales seasons like the "6.18" promotion, with delivery times reduced to as fast as 48 hours [2]

Core Insights - The logistics industry is becoming increasingly important in the modern economy, with the Qingdao to Hangzhou route playing a crucial strategic role in the national logistics network [1][4]. Group 1: Qingdao as a Logistics Hub - Qingdao, with its advantageous geographical location and thriving port economy, stands out in the logistics sector, facilitating the flow of various goods across the country [4]. - The range of products exported from Qingdao includes famous local specialties like seafood and beer, as well as modern industrial products such as electronics and machinery [4]. Group 2: Hangzhou's E-commerce Influence - Hangzhou, known as the e-commerce capital and home to Alibaba, has significantly driven the growth of logistics demand, highlighting the importance of the Qingdao to Hangzhou logistics route [5]. - Major logistics companies are increasing their investments in this key route to meet the rising market demand for quality services [5]. Group 3: Transportation Methods and Technology - The logistics transportation between Qingdao and Hangzhou utilizes both land and sea transport, each with its advantages; land transport is faster, while sea transport is cost-effective for bulk goods [8]. - The rapid advancement of technology, including drone delivery and smart warehouse management, is enhancing the efficiency and convenience of logistics operations [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the rapid growth of the logistics industry along the Qingdao to Hangzhou route, challenges such as improving transportation efficiency while being environmentally friendly and managing rising transportation costs remain [9]. - Continuous innovation and exploration of effective solutions are essential for logistics companies to address these challenges [9].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68% to close at 24,902.53 points on August 5 [1] - Jun Gao Holdings (08035.HK) closed at HKD 0.09 per share, up 8.43%, with a trading volume of 27.31 million shares and a turnover of HKD 2.6027 million, showing a volatility of 45.78% [1] Group 2 - Over the past month, Jun Gao Holdings has experienced a cumulative decline of 12.63%, but has seen a year-to-date increase of 62.75%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's rise of 23.3% [2] - As of December 31, 2024, Jun Gao Holdings reported total revenue of HKD 232 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -HKD 17.041 million, a decrease of 1.26% [2] - The gross profit margin stands at 9.07%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 69.82% [2] Group 3 - Currently, there are no institutional investment ratings for Jun Gao Holdings [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the industrial transportation sector is 9.14 times, with a median of 7.29 times. Jun Gao Holdings has a P/E ratio of -2.71 times, ranking 64th in the industry [3] - Other companies in the sector include Far East Port (08502.HK) with a P/E of 3.22 times, COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) at 3.8 times, and Orient Overseas International (00316.HK) at 4.59 times [3] Group 4 - Jun Gao Holdings is primarily engaged in freight forwarding and providing one-stop logistics services, having been established in 1990 [3] - The company has expanded its services to include customized logistics solutions, B2B bulk shipping, and B2C parcel delivery, catering to both online and offline retailers [3] - Jun Gao Holdings emphasizes customer-centric service, aiming to deliver efficient and cost-effective logistics solutions while continuously striving for excellence in a rapidly changing market [3]

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express has reported significant growth in its operational data for Q2, particularly in Southeast Asia, where parcel volume increased by 66% year-on-year, indicating strong market performance and potential for continued expansion [1][2][3] Group 1: J&T Express Operational Performance - In Q2, the total average daily parcel volume for the group reached 81.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with Southeast Asia contributing 18.5 million parcels daily, reflecting a 66% growth [1] - For the first half of the year, the group's average daily total parcel volume was 76.9 million, up 26% year-on-year, with Southeast Asia showing a 57% increase [1] - The company’s parcel volume in China grew by 14.7% in Q2, reaching an average of 61.7 million parcels daily [1] Group 2: Southeast Asia E-commerce Growth - According to Momentum Works, the total GMV for Southeast Asian e-commerce platforms is projected to reach $128.4 billion by 2024, dominated by Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop [1] - TikTok Shop's GMV in Southeast Asia is expected to grow from $163 million in 2023 to $226 million in 2024, increasing its market share from 13.2% to 17.6% [2] - During a recent promotional event, TikTok Shop achieved a GMV growth of 123% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer engagement [2] Group 3: Market Position and Growth of J&T Express - J&T Express has maintained its position as the leading courier operator in Southeast Asia since 2020, with a market share of 28.6% projected for 2024, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from 2023 [2] - The company has experienced substantial growth in parcel volume, with year-on-year increases of 87.3%, 16.3%, and 28.9% from 2021 to 2023, culminating in 3.24 billion parcels in 2023 [3] - In Q1 2025, J&T Express's parcel volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 50%, with Q2 showing an even larger increase of 66% [3] Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at $3.80 billion, $5.76 billion, and $8.23 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of $4.67 billion, $6.63 billion, and $9.09 billion [4] - The estimated market value for the Southeast Asian segment is projected at $10 billion based on an EBITDA multiple of 11x for 2026 [4] - The total target market value across three markets is estimated at HKD 100.1 billion, with a target price of HKD 11.16, indicating a potential upside of 33% [4]

Core Insights - In June, China's e-commerce logistics index reached 111.8 points, marking a 0.2 point increase from the previous month and achieving a new high for the year [1] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics was 130.8 points, up 0.6 points from last month, indicating sustained growth in logistics activities [1] - The rural business volume index rose to 130.4 points, with an increase of 0.8 points, reflecting a significant uptick in rural e-commerce activities [1] Demand and Supply Analysis - Consumer enthusiasm for online shopping surged in June due to "national subsidies" and promotional activities, with businesses reporting record-high order volumes and user engagement [2] - The rural business volume experienced a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 30% for the first time this year, showcasing a diverse and complex consumption landscape [2] - The demand for household goods and seasonal purchases was robust, while the digital home appliance sector saw increased activity due to trade-in policies, putting pressure on logistics efficiency and service quality [2] Future Outlook - Although e-commerce logistics demand may see a slight decline as mid-year promotional activities wind down, the upcoming graduation season and summer consumption peak are expected to sustain growth in the e-commerce logistics market [2]