Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to be in a strong upward trend due to high international oil prices and major sugar - producing countries' downward - adjusted sugar production forecasts. Domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly, considering the current low sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international sugar prices, although there is pressure on the supply side [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou sugar at low prices and close positions at high prices in the short - term. Also, it is suggested to go long on ICE sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar, and sell put options [10][11][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,467, down 20 (-0.36%), with a trading volume of 251,879 and an increase in open interest of 27,251; SR01 closed at 5,615, down 19 (-0.34%), with a trading volume of 18,810 and an increase in open interest of 4,589; SR05 closed at 5,441, down 23 (-0.42%), with a trading volume of 405,297 and a decrease in open interest of 8,802 [3] - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the price in Liuzhou was 5,480 with no change, in Kunming was 5,325 with no change, in Wuhan was 5,790 with no change, in Nanning was 5,480 (up 10), in Rizhao was 5,650 with no change, and in Xi'an was 5,920 with no change [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis in Liuzhou was 39, in Kunming was - 116, in Wuhan was 349, in Nanning was 39, in Rizhao was 209, and in Xi'an was 479. The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 174 (down 4), the SR09 - SR05 spread was 26 (up 3), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 148 (down 1) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract price was 14.77, the quota - in price was 4,430, the quota - out price was 5,641, the spread with Liuzhou was - 161, the spread with Rizhao was 9, and the spread with the futures price was - 200. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract price was 14.77, the quota - in price was 4,254, the quota - out price was 5,441, the spread with Liuzhou was 39, the spread with Rizhao was 209, and the spread with the futures price was 0 [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.67%; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 88.60%. As of the first half of March in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 603.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.21%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.71% [5] - As of the end of March, more than half of the sugar mills in Guangxi had completed the sugar - making process. The single - month sugar production in March was expected to be between 1.4 and 1.5 million tons, reaching the second - highest level in the past ten sugar - making seasons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.1 to 1.2 million tons. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi as of the end of March in the 2025/26 sugar - making season was expected to exceed 7 million tons. The single - month sugar sales volume in March was expected to be about 600,000 tons, basically the same as the previous year [6][8] - From March 27th to 30th, 9 more sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - making process, including 4 large - scale sugar mills with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of over 10,000 tons. As of now, 37 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the sugar - making process in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 36 less than the previous year [8] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India this sugar - making season is likely to be lower than market expectations, and global sugar production forecasts for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 sugar - making seasons have been lowered. Domestically, the domestic sugar market is in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production is likely to increase significantly this sugar - making season, putting pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly [9] - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be in an upward trend, so it is recommended to go long at low prices and close positions at high prices. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to go long on ICE sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar. For the options strategy, it is recommended to sell put options [10][11][12] Part 3: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory, monthly production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain in a volatile and slightly upward - trending pattern. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to show a generally upward trend, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell put options [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures盘面**: SR09 closed at 5,460, down 22 (-0.40%); SR01 closed at 5,589, down 31 (-0.55%); SR05 closed at 5,429, down 24 (-0.44%). The trading volume of SR09 was 119,614, a decrease of 42,499; SR01 was 5,993, a decrease of 3,461; SR05 was 270,323, a decrease of 132,250. The open interest of SR09 was 248,977, an increase of 5,812; SR01 was 24,855, an increase of 1,761; SR05 was 328,849, a decrease of 11,829 [3] - **Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the price in Liuzhou was 5,480, down 20; in Kunming was 5,320, down 10; in Wuhan was 5,790, unchanged; in Nanning was 5,470, down 20; in Rizhao was 5,650, unchanged; in Xi'an was 5,920, down 20. The basis in Liuzhou was 51, in Kunming was - 109, in Wuhan was 361, in Nanning was 41, in Rizhao was 221, and in Xi'an was 491 [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 160, up 7; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 31, up 2; the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 129, up 9 [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.36, and a freight of 44.25, the in - quota price was 4,299, the out - of - quota price was 5,471, the difference with Liuzhou price was 9, the difference with Rizhao price was 179, and the difference with the futures price was - 42. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 1.20, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,210, the out - of - quota price was 5,355, the difference with Liuzhou price was 125, the difference with Rizhao price was 295, and the difference with the futures price was 74 [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information** - As of March 24, 2026, 27 sugar mills in Guangxi had completed the sugar - pressing process in the 2025/26 season, with 46 still in operation, 45 more than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane pressing capacity of the completed mills was 256,500 tons per day, a decrease of 332,500 tons per day compared to the previous year. Sugar mills in Chongzuo and Laibin had relatively fast completion progress, while those in Liuzhou and Guigang had not completed yet, with the earliest completion expected at the end of March [5] - Due to the recent Middle East conflict driving up oil prices, Brazil is expected to divert more sugarcane to ethanol production, leading to a tightening of global sugar supply and higher prices. Indian sugar exports have recovered, with about 100,000 tons contracted, and the total exports in this season are expected to reach 1.5 million tons [6] - On March 24, the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,421 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,420 - 5,510 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price was 5,280 - 5,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5,680 - 5,890 yuan/ton, down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The spot trading atmosphere was weak [8] - **Logical Analysis** - Internationally, the sugar production increase in India this season is likely to be lower than expected, and major global sugar institutions have lowered their sugar production forecasts for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, which supports international sugar prices. Given high international oil prices and lower sugar production expectations in major producing countries, international sugar prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly upward [9] - Domestically, the domestic sugar - pressing season is at its peak, and sugar production is likely to increase significantly this season, putting pressure on the supply side. The large sugar imports from January to February have a negative impact on the market, causing short - term price drops. However, considering the relatively low sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international prices due to the recent sharp rise in international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to rise slightly [9] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side trading**: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly upward in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to show an upward trend, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [10] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing monthly inventory, monthly production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of white sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][15][19][21][23][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain in a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term due to high international oil prices and major producing countries lowering their sugar production forecasts [10][11] - Domestic sugar prices may start to rise earlier but are expected to have a relatively gentle trend considering the current low sugar prices, potential tightening of import policies, and high oil prices, despite the pressure on the supply side during the peak domestic sugar - pressing season [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,436, down 65 (-1.18%); SR01 closed at 5,569, down 57 (-1.01%); SR05 closed at 5,406, down 66 (-1.21%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan showed different degrees of change. The basis in each region also varied, with Liuzhou at 84, Kunming at -76, etc [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 163, down 9; SR09 - SR05 spread was 30, up 1; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 133, down 8 [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand were calculated, and the spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market were also provided [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information** - As of March 17, 2026, 14 sugar mills in Guangxi had completed the crushing process in the 2025/26 season, 53 less than the same period last year. The total production capacity of the crushed mills was 11.35 tons per day, a year - on - year decrease of 43.5 tons per day. The first round of concentrated crushing is expected to occur in the second half of the week [5] - Brazil exported 72.43 tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of March 2026, with a daily average of 7.24 tons, a 25% decrease compared to the daily average of 9.65 tons in March last year [5] - Egypt extended the commercial sugar import ban until the end of April 2026 to protect domestic producers and regulate the domestic market [6] - As of March 15, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 10.2696 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 549,600 tons (5.6%) [9] - **Logical Analysis** - Internationally, the sugar production increases in India and Thailand in this season are likely to be lower than market expectations. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has lowered its global sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 480,000 tons, and the expected global sugar surplus has been reduced by 410,000 tons. Most global institutions are also lowering their 2026/27 global sugar production forecasts, which supports international sugar prices [10] - Domestically, the domestic sugar market is in the peak crushing season, and the domestic sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, putting pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low sugar prices, potential tightening of import policies, and high oil prices, domestic sugar prices may start to rise earlier but with a relatively gentle trend [10] - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar is also expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term [11] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12] - **Options**: Sell put options [13] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, white sugar basis for different months, and Zhengzhou sugar spreads for different months [15][19][23][26][29][31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong upward trend in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are also expected to be in a slightly strong upward trend in the short - term [9][10] - For the domestic sugar market, the prices are likely to be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. In the short - term, the prices are expected to oscillate slightly upwards [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a long position in the single - side trade, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and sell put options [10][11][12] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,447, down 1 (-0.02%); SR01 closed at 5,568, down 1 (-0.02%); SR05 closed at 5,416, down 7 (-0.13%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou increased by 30 to 5480 yuan/ton, while the prices in Kunming, Wuhan, etc. remained unchanged [3] - **Basis**: The basis in different regions varied, such as 64 in Liuzhou, - 96 in Kunming [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 152, down 6; SR09 - SR05 spread was 31, up 6; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 121, unchanged [3] - **Import Profit**: The import profit from Brazil and Thailand was calculated, with the quota - free price and out - of - quota price and their spreads with domestic prices provided [3] Market Judgment - **Important Information**: As of the current incomplete statistics, 8 sugar mills in Zhanjiang have completed the crushing process in the 25/26 sugar - making season, and 9 are yet to finish, with the progress slower than the same period last year. As of the end of February in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 49.67 million tons, lower than 52.98 million tons in the same period last year, and the sugar yield rate was 10.14%, slightly lower than 10.30% in the same period last year [5] - **Important Information**: The spot quotes of sugar in the main producing areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6] - **Important Information**: The well - known consulting firm StoneX recently adjusted the estimated global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 sugar - making season from 2.9 million tons to about 0.87 million tons, a decrease of 70%. The main reduction in the global surplus expectation came from India. For the 2026/27 sugar - making season in the central - southern region of Brazil, StoneX expected the sugarcane crushing volume to reach 620.5 million tons, but due to the decreased attractiveness of sugar compared to ethanol, the sugar - making ratio dropped from the previously estimated 49.3% to 48.7%, and the sugar production in this region was expected to drop to about 40 million tons, about 0.7 million tons less than the previous forecast [8] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand in this sugar - making season is likely to be lower than market expectations, especially India has repeatedly lowered its sugar production forecast. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has also lowered its global sugar production and surplus forecasts. Most global institutions are lowering their 2026/27 global sugar production expectations, which strongly supports international sugar prices. Domestically, the domestic sugar is in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this sugar - making season is likely to increase significantly, putting pressure on the supply side. However, considering the relatively low sugar prices and the possible tightening of import policies in the future, the sugar prices are expected to be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. In the short - term, due to the high price of crude oil and the sharp rise in international sugar prices, the domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate slightly upwards [9] Related Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the monthly inventory and production of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of different contract months, and the price difference between different contracts [14][19][21]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: March 3, 2026 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] - Researcher's Qualifications: Futures Practitioner Certificate No. F3013727, Investment Consulting Certificate No. Z0014425 [7] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,332, down 21 (-0.39%); Volume 44,224, down 6,768; Open interest 150,412, up 3,627 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,448, down 32 (-0.58%); Volume 1,117, down 447; Open interest 8,371, up 70 [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,321, down 24 (-0.45%); Volume 289,757, down 64,119; Open interest 453,444, down 16,529 [3] Spot Market - Prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5390, Kunming 0, Wuhan 5630, Nanning 5370, Bayuquan 0, Rizhao 5510, Xi'an 0 [3] - Price changes: Liuzhou 0, Kunming -5200, Wuhan 0, Nanning -10, Bayuquan -5435, Rizhao 0, Xi'an -5790 [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 69, Kunming -5321, Wuhan 309, Nanning 49, Bayuquan -5321, Rizhao 189, Xi'an -5321 [3] Inter - month Spreads - SR05 - SR01 spread: -127, up 8; SR09 - SR05 spread: 11, up 3; SR09 - SR01 spread: -116, up 11 [3] Import Profits - Brazil: ICE main contract 14.77, premium 0.24, freight 38.50; In - quota price 3854, out - of - quota price 4890, spread with Liuzhou 500, spread with Rizhao 620, spread with futures 558 [3] - Thailand: ICE main contract 14.77, premium 0.85, freight 18.00; In - quota price 3795, out - of - quota price 4813, spread with Liuzhou 577, spread with Rizhao 697, spread with futures 635 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - As of March 3, 2026, 3 sugar mills in Guangxi have finished crushing in the 2025/26 season, 44 less than the same period last year; Crushing capacity is 14,000 tons/day, 390,500 tons/day less than last year. It is expected that more than 3 sugar mills will finish crushing this week [5] - On March 3, spot prices in major producing areas were basically stable, with general trading volume [6] - Tensions between the US, Israel and Iran may slow sugar exports from India to the Gulf region. The Indian government approved 2 million tons of sugar exports this season, but actual shipments may be only 500,000 tons, leaving 1.5 million tons in the domestic market [9] Logical Analysis - International market: The sugar production increase in India and Thailand this season is likely to be less than expected. The ISO predicts that global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, 480,000 tons less than the previous forecast; The global sugar surplus is expected to be 1.22 million tons, 410,000 tons less than the previous forecast. Considering the start of the new Brazilian season in April and May, international sugar prices are likely to fluctuate at the bottom [10] - Domestic market: China's sugar is in the peak crushing period, and production is likely to increase significantly. However, due to the low sugar price and possible tightening of import policies, domestic sugar prices are affected by both long and short factors, with a general trend of bottom - level fluctuation. In the short term, considering the optimistic commodity atmosphere, domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are likely to range - bound. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [11] - Arbitrage: Hold off [12] - Options: Sell put options in the short term [13] Group 4: Related Figures - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar basis for different months, and spreads between different futures contracts [15][19][21][24][27][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil's sugar - cane crushing season is nearing its end, having little impact on the market. India's expected production cut is bullish for sugar prices, but with limited exports currently, raw sugar futures prices have changed little. The short - selling force has been largely consumed, and sugar prices show signs of bottoming out. If there are bullish factors later, the marginal impact will be significant [8][53]. - Around the Spring Festival, the domestic sugar market didn't change much, but trading funds were very active. At the end of the month, Zhengzhou sugar futures rose sharply due to the expected production cut in India, while raw sugar remained flat. This may be because long - position funds aimed to squeeze speculative short - sellers into stopping losses. If raw sugar fails to rise and there is no substantial bullish news from domestic policies, the strength of Zhengzhou sugar may not last and could return to a weak oscillation [8][53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market Review - In February, the raw sugar index generally bottomed out, oscillated, and then moved sideways. After breaking below the 14 - cent mark, the price stabilized and rebounded, but the rebound was capped by the middle line of the weekly Bollinger Bands [14]. - The Zhengzhou sugar index showed a weak oscillation in the first three weeks of February and rose strongly in the last week. The price rebound was resisted by the 10 - week moving average, and on the monthly chart, it rebounded to the 5 - month moving average, which is a technical resistance level [14]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - In February, the spot price of sugar generally increased slightly. The spot price of Nanning sugar of Guangxi Nanhua Group rose from 5,295 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5,315 yuan/ton at the end, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan decreased from 5,180 yuan/ton to 5,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of processed sugar in Rizhao, Shandong rose from 5,420 yuan/ton to 5,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [16]. - In February, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus valid forecasts continued to increase. At the beginning of the month, there were 14,266, and at the end of the month, it increased to 15,949. Among them, registered warehouse receipts increased from 14,069 to 14,461, and valid forecasts decreased from 197 to 1,488 [16]. 3.3 Futures Market Structure Analysis - In February, both futures and spot markets were weak. The spot market continued to weaken, while futures first fell and then rose, resulting in a slight contraction of the basis. The basis of the 2605 contract against Nanning spot decreased from 88 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 67 yuan/ton at the end; the basis of the 2609 contract decreased from 73 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton [20]. - In February, the spread between the main May contract and the secondary September contract of Zhengzhou sugar changed little. The spread was - 15 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and - 16 yuan/ton at the end [20]. - In February, the spread between the London white sugar futures and the New York raw sugar futures main contracts widened slightly, reaching 98 US dollars/ton at the end of the month. The current spread is at the break - even point for raw sugar processing enterprises [22]. - As of February 17, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar reached 253,592 contracts, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the total open interest of raw sugar futures increased significantly to 1,099,675 contracts [22]. 3.4 Production and Sales Situation - As of the end of January 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,800 tons. The single - month sugar production in January was 3.21 million tons, the highest in the same period in the past five years. Among them, Guangxi produced 4.029 million tons of blended sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 788,000 tons; Yunnan produced 984,100 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 147,000 tons; Guangdong produced 344,400 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 3,000 tons [26]. - As of the end of January 2026, the national cumulative sugar sales in this sugar - making season were 2.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.035 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 39.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.75 percentage points. The single - month sugar sales in January were 1.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 105,600 tons. The sales volume in January was relatively high in the same period in the past five years [29]. - At the end of January 2026, the national sugar industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 432,200 tons, the highest in the past five years [32]. 3.5 Import and Export Situation - In December 2025, the imported sugar was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, the highest in the past five years. As of the end of December, the cumulative imported sugar in this sugar - making season was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31 tons [35]. - Mutiantian Technology expects that the imported sugar volume in January 2026 will still reach about 300,000 tons, significantly higher than 60,000 tons in the same period last year, and most of it is expected to be within the quota or carried over from December for customs clearance in January [35]. - In February, the price of external raw sugar oscillated weakly at the bottom, while the domestic sugar price trended strongly. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets widened. At the beginning of February, the processing profit of Brazilian raw sugar within the quota was around 1,532 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota was around 485 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the processing profit of Brazilian raw sugar within the quota was 1,634 yuan/ton, and outside the quota was about 600 yuan/ton [35][36]. 3.6 Overseas Major Producing Countries' Production Situation - In the second half of January 2026 in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was only 5,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36%. The proportion of sugar - cane used for sugar production was only 6.63%, compared with 23.57% in the same period of the 2024/25 season. There were 22 production units in operation, including 4 sugar - cane crushing plants, 10 corn - based ethanol enterprises, and 8 flexible sugar plants. The total ethanol production reached 439.44 million liters, of which 90.67% was corn - based ethanol, with a production of 398.45 million liters, a year - on - year increase of 2.78%. The sugar - cane sugar yield (ATR) was 121.18 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 11.06% [40]. - As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 40.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar - making ratio remained at 50.74%, an increase compared with 48.14% in the same period of the previous season. The cumulative ethanol production was 31.71 billion liters, including 12.15 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.54%, 19.56 billion liters of hydrous ethanol, a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%, and 7.65 billion liters of corn - based ethanol, a year - on - year significant increase of 13.05%. The cumulative sugar - cane ATR was 138.34 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.20% [40][43]. - At the end of February, the ethanol - to - sugar conversion price in the central - southern region of Brazil was 17.89 cents/pound, higher than the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract at 13.87 cents/pound. This means that sugar - cane factories are more willing to produce ethanol. The obvious premium of ethanol over sugar will reduce the sugar - making ratio, which is the main reason for the expected decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season [45]. - The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) estimated the net sugar production in the 2025 - 2026 sugar - making season to be about 29.3 million tons (a 12% increase from the previous year), but 1.65 million tons lower than the November estimate. The reasons for the production cut include lower - than - expected sugar - cane yield in Uttar Pradesh due to the variety replacement plan, and lower - than - expected unit - area yield in Maharashtra and Karnataka due to early sugar - cane flowering caused by abnormal weather [46]. 3.7 Exchange Rate Factors - In February, the US dollar index oscillated. The Brazilian real and the Thai baht appreciated slightly against the US dollar. At the end of the month, the US dollar to real exchange rate was 5.1376, compared with 5.2581 at the beginning; the US dollar to baht exchange rate was 30.8249, compared with 31.3839 at the beginning [51]. - In February, US core data showed a mixed but hawkish pattern. In terms of inflation, the CPI in January decreased to 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI was 2.5% year - on - year. However, the core PCE in December rebounded to 3%, and in January, it was still 2.8%. Super - core services and housing inflation were sticky, and new tariff policies brought the risk of rising prices of imported goods, making the Fed doubt the sustainability of inflation decline. In terms of employment, the non - farm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The market now expects the first interest - rate cut to be postponed from June to July, and the number of expected interest - rate cuts this year has been reduced from 3 to 1 - 2 times. The Fed will maintain the interest rate unchanged in March, and the core PCE and employment data from March to April will determine whether the interest - rate cut rhythm can restart in the middle of the year [52]. 3.8 Market Outlook - From the fundamental perspective of raw sugar, Brazil's sugar - cane crushing season is ending, having little impact on the market. India's expected production cut is bullish for sugar prices, but with limited exports currently, raw sugar futures prices have changed little. The short - selling force has been largely consumed, and sugar prices show signs of bottoming out. If there are bullish factors later, the marginal impact will be significant [53]. - For the domestic sugar market, there were not many changes around the Spring Festival, but trading funds were very active. At the end of the month, Zhengzhou sugar futures rose sharply due to the expected production cut in India, while raw sugar remained flat. This may be because long - position funds aimed to squeeze speculative short - sellers into stopping losses. If raw sugar fails to rise and there is no substantial bullish news from domestic policies, the strength of Zhengzhou sugar may not last and could return to a weak oscillation [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar will also maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the long run. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the previous high can be effectively broken through [9][10] - For trading strategies, for the single - side, maintain the bottom - oscillating view; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, sell put options in the short term [10][11][12] Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,301, up 34 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 51,265 (an increase of 25,547) and an open interest of 137,901 (an increase of 9,758); SR01 closed at 5,423, up 28 (0.52%), with a trading volume of 1,484 (a decrease of 15) and an open interest of 6,647 (an increase of 376); SR05 closed at 5,285, up 37 (0.71%), with a trading volume of 341,075 (an increase of 166,563) and an open interest of 462,071 (an increase of 15,849) [3] - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou was 5,380 (up 10), in Kunming was 5,190 (up 20), in Wuhan was 5,630 (unchanged), in Nanning was 5,370 (up 20), in Bayuquan was 5,435 (unchanged), in Rizhao was 5,510 (up 35), and in Xi'an was 5,770 (up 10). The corresponding basis was 95, - 95, 345, 85, 150, 225, and 485 respectively [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 138 (up 9), the SR09 - SR05 spread was 16 (down 3), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 122 (up 6) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.25, and a freight of 38.00, the in - quota price was 3,846, the out - of - quota price was 4,880, the spread with Liuzhou was 500, the spread with Rizhao was 630, and the spread with the futures market was 543. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 3,798, the out - of - quota price was 4,817, the spread with Liuzhou was 563, the spread with Rizhao was 693, and the spread with the futures market was 606 [3] Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: On February 25, India's Food Ministry announced a domestic sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons for March 2026, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The domestic market is expected to remain bullish. Since mid - February, sugar mills in Maharashtra have begun to end their crushing operations, which will help reduce the market's oversupply. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast data for the 2025/26 sugar - making season on February 25. The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) is expected to be 32.409 million tons, the ethanol diversion is expected to be 3.1 million tons, and the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. As of the end of February, Nanning and Qinzhou in Guangxi are expected to have one sugar mill each stop crushing, but due to rainfall, the plan may change, and the first wave of stops is expected to be concentrated in early March. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be around 7 million tons, but the production estimate is still unclear due to the delayed progress [5][6] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugarcane crushing is almost over, and its sugar exports have decreased, so the market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. Although India's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, the recent increase has significantly narrowed, and the final output may be slightly higher than expected but with a small increase. After the US Supreme Court overturned Trump's global tariffs during the holiday, Brazil may export more sugar and ethanol to the US, and the US sugar price has risen after hitting the bottom. In the domestic market, the domestic white sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low futures price and the sharp rise in international sugar prices during the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [9] - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar will also maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the long run. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the previous high can be effectively broken through. Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Options: Sell put options in the short term [10][11][12] Third Part: Relevant Diagrams - The report provides 10 diagrams, including those showing monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and price spreads of white sugar futures [14][16][18]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to whether the support at the previous low is effective. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. After the Zhengzhou sugar price slightly rises to near the upper edge of the previous range, it is expected to face significant upward pressure. For arbitrage and options, the report suggests waiting and seeing [9][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of SR09, SR01, and SR05 are 5,288, 5,395, and 5,278 respectively, with increases of 14, 16, and 17, and increases of 0.27%, 0.30%, and 0.32%. The trading volumes are 26,559, 726, and 257,845, with changes of -748, -340, and 4421. The open interests are 123,081, 4,146, and 458,435, with increases of 2021, 519, and 4522 [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions vary. For example, the price in Liuzhou is 5370 yuan/ton with an increase of 10, and the price in Kunming is 5175 yuan/ton with an increase of 20. The basis differences also vary in different regions [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread is -117 with an increase of 1, the SR09 - SR05 spread is 10 with a decrease of 3, and the SR09 - SR01 spread is -107 with a decrease of 2 [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price is 3897, the out - of - quota price is 4946. For Thai imports, the in - quota price is 3888, the out - of - quota price is 4933 [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the first week of February, Brazil exported 76.24 tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 34.28%. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' prediction of China's sugar supply and demand situation remains the same as last month. As of January 31, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased by 34.9%, 17.7%, and 28.9% year - on - year respectively. The global market remains in a situation of loose supply and demand [5] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar influence is declining, while India's sugar production may increase more than expected, but some institutions predict a decrease in sugar production and an increase in consumption in the 2026/27 season, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, although there is pressure on the supply side due to increased production, the increase in international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment are expected to relieve the pressure on domestic sugar prices, and domestic sugar prices are also expected to oscillate at the bottom [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, pay attention to the support of international and domestic sugar prices at the previous lows. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot price and the price difference with Kunming, and various futures basis and spreads [14][18][22]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily sugar report dated January 29, 2026, focusing on sugar market analysis and trading strategies [2] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,269, up 71 (1.37%) with a trading volume of 39,061 and an open interest of 110,211 [3] - SR01 closed at 5,358, up 50 (0.94%) with a trading volume of 902 and an open interest of 1,279 [3] - SR05 closed at 5,257, up 70 (1.35%) with a trading volume of 342,769 and an open interest of 463,208 [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5370 yuan/ton, Kunming 5190 yuan/ton, Wuhan 5630 yuan/ton, Nanning 5340 yuan/ton, Bayuquan 5460 yuan/ton, Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton, Xi'an 5790 yuan/ton [3] - Price changes: Liuzhou up 40 yuan/ton, Kunming up 35 yuan/ton, Wuhan unchanged, Nanning up 40 yuan/ton, Bayuquan unchanged, Rizhao unchanged, Xi'an up 30 yuan/ton [3] Basis and Spread - Basis: Liuzhou 113, Kunming -67, Wuhan 373, Nanning 83, Bayuquan 203, Rizhao 158, Xi'an 533 [3] - Spread: SR05 - SR01 spread was -101, up 20; SR09 - SR05 spread was 12, up 1; SR09 - SR01 spread was -89, up 21 [3] Import Profit - Brazilian imports: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.17, freight 32.75, in - quota price 3982, out - of - quota price 5057, spread with Liuzhou 313, spread with Rizhao 358, spread with the futures market 301 [3] - Thai imports: ICE主力 14.77, premium 1.05, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4033, out - of - quota price 5124, spread with Liuzhou 246, spread with Rizhao 291, spread with the futures market 234 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - As of the week of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54 (previously 51), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons (previously 1.7816 million tons) [5] - The EU Commission proposed to suspend duty - free sugar imports to relieve pressure on sugar producers. In the 2024/25 season, EU's raw sugar imports reached 587,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year), about 95% from Brazil; refined sugar imports were 155,000 tons (up 5% year - on - year), about 43% from Brazil [5] - Main sugar - producing areas' spot prices were generally stable with fair trading volume [5][7] Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar supply pressure will ease as the harvest season approaches. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. Indian sugar production may exceed expectations, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to low sugar prices and strong commodities, US sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestically, China's sugar production is at its peak, and this season's output is likely to increase significantly. In 2025, China imported 4.9188 million tons of sugar, an increase of 562,200 tons year - on - year, adding pressure to the domestic market. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to continue to decline, but considering the low prices and cost support, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is under supply pressure above and cost support below, and is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high according to macro sentiment, as the upward space is limited [9] - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures on monthly inventory, production, spot prices, basis, and spreads in Guangxi and Yunnan, as well as other related data [14][16][18][20][21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of December 2025 decreased year - on - year, and as the crushing season nears its end, the available sugarcane for crushing is decreasing. It is expected that future supply will decline, providing some support for raw sugar prices. The domestic fundamentals are relatively flat. With the Spring Festival stocking almost over and the continuous increase of goods at sales - area ports, the spot price has been lowered under the background of a lackluster peak season. The futures market may continue to decline due to lack of spot support [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4; the main contract's open interest was 472,603 lots, an increase of 4628. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 13,715, unchanged. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 76,951 lots, a decrease of 1387. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 132, unchanged. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4049 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 [2] 3.2现货市场 (Spot Market) - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5129 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5196 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; in Nanning, Guangxi it was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, Guangxi it was 5310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi were 88.48 million tons, an increase of 79.54. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan was 39.23 million tons, a decrease of 34.75. The total sugar exports from Brazil were 291.3 million tons, a decrease of 38.9. The monthly import volume of sugar was 58 million tons, an increase of 14; the cumulative import volume was 492 million tons, an increase of 58 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 359.04 million tons, an increase of 228.74. The monthly output of soft drinks was 1342.1 million tons, an increase of 296.4 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.35%, an increase of 0.17; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 9.35%, an increase of 0.17. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.52%, a decrease of 0.04; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.27%, a decrease of 0.03 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazilian foreign trade secretariat data showed that Brazil exported 1.7376 billion tons of sugar in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export of 108,600 tons, a 16% increase compared to the daily average export of 93,700 tons in January of the previous year when the total export was 2.062 billion tons. ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday, supported by short - covering by speculators. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.06 cents or 0.41% to settle at 14.79 cents per pound. According to Unica, in the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 billion tons of sugarcane, a 26.6% year - on - year increase; sugar production was 56,000 tons, a 14.90% year - on - year decrease [2]