1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. The fundamentals of raw sugar are weak, and the long - term trend is downward. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar price of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [11][12] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for the domestic market, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,403 with an increase of 5 (0.09%), trading volume of 1,703 (an increase of 116), and an open interest of 10,961 (a decrease of 108); SR01 closed at 5,475 with an increase of 18 (0.33%), trading volume of 139,545 (a decrease of 1,192), and an open interest of 373,243 (an increase of 1,282); SR05 closed at 5,405 with an increase of 8 (0.15%), trading volume of 21,900 (an increase of 6,805), and an open interest of 115,922 (an increase of 2,673) [6] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,730, 5,905, 6,000, 5,760, 6,015, 5,820, and 6,130 respectively. The price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, while others remained unchanged [6] - **Basis**: The basis in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 255, 430, 525, 285, 540, 345, and 655 respectively [6] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 70 (a decrease of 10), SR09 - SR5 spread was - 2 (a decrease of 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 72 (a decrease of 13) [6] - **Import Profit**: The quota - within price and quota - outside price for Brazilian imports were 3,952 and 5,002 respectively, with a spread of 728 compared to Liuzhou, 818 compared to Rizhao, and 473 compared to the futures price; for Thai imports, the quota - within price and quota - outside price were 4,007 and 5,075 respectively, with a spread of 655 compared to Liuzhou, 745 compared to Rizhao, and 400 compared to the futures price [6] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: India allows 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, lower than the industry's request of 2 million tons, and cancels the 50% export tariff on molasses; the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi starts no earlier than November 30, and enterprises need to abide by relevant regulations; the FAO sugar price index in October was 94.1, down 5.3 points (5.3%) from September and 35.4 points (27.4%) year - on - year, reaching the lowest level since December 2020 [8][9][10] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is at a historically high level, the support of ethanol for sugar weakens, and India's sugar exports may be higher than expected, so the raw sugar fundamentals are weak. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar supply is expected to increase, but the import of syrup and premixed powder is tightened, and the previous pricing cost is relatively high, so the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and be weak in the long term [11][12] - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, the international sugar price resumes the downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile, so it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations; for the arbitrage strategy, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar; for the options strategy, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratio trends in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, basis and inter - monthly spreads of different contract months [16][17][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international raw sugar market has a weak fundamental outlook with a downward trend due to high sugar production in Brazil, a lower support level for sugar from ethanol as Brazil cuts oil prices, and potentially higher - than - expected sugar exports from India [10]. - The domestic white sugar market has a weak fundamental situation as well, but considering factors such as sugar mills starting to crush and tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [11]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for the domestic market, an arbitrage strategy of shorting foreign sugar and going long on Zhengzhou sugar, and taking a wait - and - see approach for options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,393 with a decline of 42 points (-0.77%), SR01 at 5,441 with a decline of 40 points (-0.73%), and SR05 at 5,393 with a decline of 38 points (-0.70%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of white sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan decreased to varying degrees. The basis between spot and futures prices was positive in all regions [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 48 with a change of 2, the SR09 - SR5 spread was 0 with a change of - 4, and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 48 with a change of - 2 [6]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 3914, the quota - out price was 4968, and the spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market were 752, 852, and 473 respectively. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 3979, the quota - out price was 5053, and the corresponding spreads were 667, 767, and 388 [6]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: India's 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 3435 million tons (excluding ethanol use) and 3095 million tons (net production after ethanol use), with potential exports of nearly 2 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is slightly higher than the previous estimate, while the ethanol production shows mixed changes [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar market is bearish due to high production in Brazil and potential high exports from India. Domestically, although the fundamentals are weak, short - term price fluctuations are expected [10][11]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Trade within a range for the domestic market [12]. - Arbitrage: Short foreign sugar and go long on Zhengzhou sugar [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The part includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, and various basis and spreads [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Globally, the increase in production in major sugar-producing regions is being realized. Brazil's cumulative sugar production is expected to reach a historically high level, and the fundamental outlook for raw sugar is weak, with a potential short - term rebound after over - decline. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to factors such as lower - than - expected domestic sugar production increase and the suspension of imports of some enterprises' syrups and premixes [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: For futures contracts SR09, SR01, and SR05, the closing prices are 5,434, 5,499, and 5,433 respectively, with price increases of 12, 16, and 20, and price increase percentages of 0.22%, 0.29%, and 0.37% respectively. The trading volumes are 1,509, 173,994, and 20,199, and the changes in trading volumes are 817, 6,995, and 6,306. The open interests are 9,065, 372,791, and 97,748, with changes of - 2, 21, and 2,235 [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Dali, Wuhan, Nanning, etc. are reported. For example, the price in Liuzhou is 5,760 with no change, while the price in Dali is 5,905 with a decrease of 15 [3] - **Spread Analysis**: The SR5 - SR01 spread is - 66, the SR09 - SR5 spread is 1, and the SR09 - SR01 spread is - 65, with changes of 0, - 8, and - 4 respectively. The import profit analysis shows that for Brazilian imports, the in - quota price is 3,961 and the out - of - quota price is 5,030, with spreads of 730, 820, and 469 compared to Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market respectively. For Thai imports, the in - quota price is 4,020 and the out - of - quota price is 5,107, with corresponding spreads [3] 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Important Information**: In the first half of October 2025, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.30%. The sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. India's Uttar Pradesh government raised the sugarcane purchase price, which is expected to bring an additional income of about 300 billion rupees (about 24.1 billion yuan) to local sugarcane farmers. The sugar production situation in the main domestic producing areas in the 2025/26 season is relatively clear, with an expected national sugar production of 11.56 million tons, an increase of 394,000 tons compared to the previous season [5][7][8] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the increase in Brazilian sugar production is approaching reality, and the support of ethanol for sugar has weakened, so the raw sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term with a short - term rebound. Domestically, considering the start of sugar mills and the lower - than - expected increase in sugar production, as well as the suspension of some imports, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and may rebound in the short - term, and the domestic sugar price may be slightly stronger in the short - term. For arbitrage and option trading, it is also recommended to wait and see [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, the sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of different futures contracts, and the spread between different futures contracts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][17]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Data Daily [3] - Date: October 23, 2025 [4] - Analyst: Xie Wei, with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Sugar Price Data Domestic Spot Prices - In Nanning warehouse, Guangxi, the price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 374 yuan to SR01, up 2 yuan [4] - In Kunming, the price is 5730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 404 yuan to SR01, up 2 yuan [4] - In Dali, Yunnan, the price is 5575 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, with a basis of 289 yuan to SR01, down 13 yuan [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price is 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 344 yuan to SR01, up 12 yuan [4] Domestic Futures Prices - SR01 is 5426 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; SR01 - 05 is 43 [4] - SR05 is 5383 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [4] International Data - The exchange rate of RMB to USD is 7.1416, up 0.0036; ICE raw sugar主力 is 15.24, unchanged [4] - The exchange rate of Brazilian real to RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3 [4] - The exchange rate of Indian rupee to RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004; Brent crude oil主力 is 61.66, unchanged [4] Group 3: Core View - Typhoons around the National Day have adversely affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, with sugarcane lodging and flooding in the producing areas. Also, there is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices during the short - term gap between old and new crops after the festival. In the medium term, the rain - heat conditions in the southern main producing areas are suitable this year, and the sugarcane growth is very good. After the new sugar is launched, the expected rebound space is relatively limited [4] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts show domestic white sugar industrial inventory, Brazilian sugar out - of - quota import profit, Liuzhou - 01 basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 month spread [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Globally, the sugar production increase in major producing areas is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, with a significant increase in sugar production. The cumulative sugar production is almost the same as last year, and it is expected to remain high in the near - term. With the recent decline in crude oil prices, the support from ethanol for sugar has weakened, and the fundamental situation of raw sugar is weak. The main contract has fallen below the previous low, and the downward space has been opened, indicating a generally weak trend. - In the domestic market, the supply is mainly from imported sugar recently. Given the weak price trend of foreign sugar, it is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will follow the trend of the foreign market in the short - term. The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies, and recommends a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [11][12]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,391 with a 0.04% increase; SR01 closed at 5,408 with a 0.09% increase; SR05 closed at 5,374 with a 0.06% increase. The trading volume of SR01 was 144,443, with a decrease of 19,746, and the open interest increased by 4,928 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The basis in Liuzhou was 402 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 34, down 2; SR09 - SR5 spread was 17, down 1; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 17, down 3 [5]. - **Import Profits**: The in - quota price for Brazilian imports was 4,278 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,444 yuan/ton. The in - quota price for Thai imports was 4,299 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,470 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: Brazil's estimated sugarcane planting area in 2025 is 9.355219 million hectares, up 1.5% from last month's estimate and the same as in 2024. The sugarcane production is estimated to be 695.532937 million tons, the same as last month's estimate but down 1.6% from 2024. As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.7272 million tons, up 3.3% from the previous week [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global sugar production increase is being realized, and the raw sugar market is weak. The domestic market is expected to follow the foreign market in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - side Trading**: Short - sell on rallies. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and price spreads of sugar futures contracts [14][18][21][28][31][36].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, September 18, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D Report [1] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,474, down 45 (-0.82%), volume 724 (increase of 499), open interest 1,376 (increase of 546) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,474, down 55 (-0.99%), volume 315,458 (increase of 155,951), open interest 432,454 (increase of 44,260) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,456, down 54 (-0.98%), volume 34,171 (increase of 22,477), open interest 52,980 (increase of 9,066) [5] Spot Market - Prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,960 (down 10), Kunming 5,905 (down 10), Wuhan 6,150 (unchanged), Nanning 5,840 (down 30), Bayuquan 6,100 (up 85), Rizhao 6,000 (unchanged), Xi'an 6,330 (down 10) [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 486, Kunming 431, Wuhan 676, Nanning 366, Bayuquan 626, Rizhao 526, Xi'an 856 [5] Spread - SR5 - SR01: Spread -18 (up 1); SR09 - SR5: Spread 18 (up 9); SR09 - SR01: Spread 0 (up 10) [5] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 15.51, quota - within price 4,452, quota - outside price 5,670, spread with Liuzhou 290, spread with Rizhao 330, spread with futures -196 [5] - Thailand: ICE主力 15.51, quota - within price 4,410, quota - outside price 5,616, spread with Liuzhou 344, spread with Rizhao 384, spread with futures -142 [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, imports were 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons (4.86%). From the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season to August, imports were 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 277,200 tons (6.37%) [7] - In the second half of August, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.832 million tons (10.68%); sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 596,000 tons (18.21%) [8] - As of the week of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 85, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.2827 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,700 tons (3.1%) [10] - In August 2025, China's refined sugar production was 454,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%; from January to August, it was 10.284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [10] Logic Analysis - International market: Brazil is in the supply peak, global inventory is accumulating. Although the latest data shows an increase in sugar production, the international sugar price is at a low level, so it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [11] - Domestic market: In August, China's sugar imports remained high. Domestic sugar inventory is low, and the sales - to - production ratio is high. Affected by the international sugar price, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short term [11] Trading Strategies - Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and Zhengzhou sugar has limited downward space [12] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13] - Options: Wait and see [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales - to - production ratio trends, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, sugar basis and futures spreads [17][18][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both sugar futures and spot prices have risen, driven by increased sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil [1] - As of Friday's close, the white sugar futures contract 2601 settled at 5540 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [1] - In the Guangxi Nanning region, the spot price of white sugar was 5890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - An industry survey of 11 analysts predicts that Brazil's central-south region will crush 49.5 million tons of sugarcane in the second half of August, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Sugar production is expected to reach 3.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while ethanol production is forecasted at 2.4 billion liters, a decrease of 2.5% [1] - Domestic forecasts indicate that 48.94 million tons of raw sugar will arrive at ports outside the quota by August 2025, with 30.43 million tons expected in September [1] Group 3 - Market analysis suggests that the acceleration of sugarcane crushing in Brazil since August has led to a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production, with a record high sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - Despite the pressure on raw sugar futures prices due to increased production expectations in the northern hemisphere, the ethanol market provides some support, limiting the short-term downside for raw sugar [1] - The domestic sugar market has faced poor production and sales in August, raising concerns about potential policy relaxations on syrup, leading to a weaker market trend [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 2, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recovery of sugar production in Brazil suppresses sugar prices, while Zhengzhou sugar shows relatively strong performance compared to the external market, with the 5600 mark having strong support [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: On Friday, the New York raw sugar futures weakened slightly, with the main October contract closing down 0.85% at 16.34 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed down 0.1% at $492.70 per ton. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to weaken yesterday, with the 01 contract closing at 5623 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan or 0.45%, and reducing positions by 264 lots. Today, Zhengzhou sugar 01 fluctuated narrowly, performing slightly stronger than the external market, with three consecutive lower shadow lines on the technical chart and strong support at the 5600 mark. After the market, the previous speculative long positions started to turn short [7][8] - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: According to the Unica report, in the first half of August, the total sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.17%, and the sugar production increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons [7] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in the producing areas decreased slightly, with the price of Nanning sugar at 5960 yuan and that of Kunming sugar at 5790 yuan [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Brazil's Port Shipping**: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons in the previous week. Among the total sugar waiting for export in the week, the quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.4764 million tons. The quantity of sugar waiting for export at Santos Port was 1.7817 million tons, and that at Paranagua Port was 0.6127 million tons [9] - **Brazil's Sugar Production Forecast**: Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for the country's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million tons, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast due to adverse weather affecting sugarcane cultivation. The sugar production in the central - southern region is currently estimated at 40.6 million tons, a 2.8% decrease from the April forecast of 41.8 million tons. Despite the downward adjustment, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [9] - **ICE Position Data**: As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 lots, a decrease of 2,291 lots from the previous week. Speculative long positions were 179,365 lots, a decrease of 11,403 lots from the previous week; speculative short positions were 310,352 lots, an increase of 4,227 lots from the previous week; speculative net short positions were 130,987 lots, an increase of 15,630 lots from the previous week [9] - **Guangxi Sugar Inventory**: According to data from the Pan - Sugar Technology Smart Storage and Transportation Platform, as of August 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 770,000 tons, an increase of about 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year, slightly lower than the average level of the past five years. In August, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi decreased by about 140,000 tons compared to July, and the de - stocking speed slowed down significantly [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][14][16] - **Top 20 Seats' Trading and Position Data**: The total trading volume of the top 20 seats was 187,750 lots, a decrease of 12,543 lots; the total long position was 252,364 lots, a decrease of 178 lots; the total short position was 269,805 lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil reaches its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The actual sugar production in Brazil is currently lower than expected, and the final output remains uncertain. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. The domestic sugar price is greatly affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of external sugar [11]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is greatly affected by the international market and is expected to follow the trend of external sugar, with prices fluctuating slightly within a range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, a strategy of selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles can be considered [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,678, down 42 (-0.73%); SR01 closed at 5,632, down 56 (-0.98%); SR05 closed at 5,599, down 47 (-0.83%). The trading volume of SR01 increased by 78,039, and its open interest decreased by 1,534 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan were reported. The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The basis in different regions ranged from 227 to 692 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 33, up 9; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 79, up 5; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 46, up 14 [5]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand were calculated, along with their spreads to the Liuzhou and Rizhao spot prices and the futures price [5]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: - Brazil exported 281.39 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of August 2025, a 0.27% increase from the same period last year. The daily average export volume was 17.58 million tons [7]. - The quotes of processing sugar in various regions such as Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong remained unchanged, with general trading volume [8]. - As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 from the previous week. Speculative long positions decreased by 11,403, short positions increased by 4,227, and the net short position increased by 15,630 [10]. - **Logical Analysis**: - Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected due to low cane crushing volume and sugar content. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways [11]. - Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is arriving, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price and fluctuate slightly in the short - term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Consider selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles [14]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those related to Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, sugar basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [15][19][24][25][28][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 0.84%. Globally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are favorable, and Brazil shows strong production signs, leading to a loose supply expectation and pressuring the raw sugar price. In China, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up. Currently, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The estimated sugar production for the 2025/26 season is 1120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the expected increase in imports and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch: consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. The import expectation increase and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.05% this week. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar were 199,477 contracts, a 0.36% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short positions were 261,625 contracts, a 1.21% increase; the non - commercial net positions were - 62,148 contracts, a 4.05% decrease. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 30,938 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 18,545 contracts [11][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5830 yuan/ton. As of August 5, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5584 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4398 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5683 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4474 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease. As of August 5, the profit of imported Brazilian sugar inside the quota was 1457 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase from last week; outside the quota, it was 271 yuan/ton, a 7.97% increase. The profit of imported Thai sugar inside the quota was 1381 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; outside the quota, it was 172 yuan/ton, a 12.42% increase [24][27][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [37][41][45]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a 12.00% increase from the previous period, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% decrease from the previous period; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% increase [49][54]. 3.4 Option and Stock - related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented, but specific data is not summarized here. - **Stock Market**: Information about Nanning Sugar Industry's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but specific data is not summarized here.