[ 2026年的全球经济将进入一个由非线性、路径依赖与适应性共同塑造的复杂系统，表现出高度不稳定 却韧性犹在的双重特征。对中国而言，既是外部压力的延续，也是出口结构升级的机遇。 ] 2026年1月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.32，较上月回升，维持景气 状态。经济学家们认为2025年我国经济运行稳中有进，顺利收官。 首席经济学家们对2025年12月CPI同比增速的预测均值为0.8%，PPI同比预测均值为-2%。2025年12月工 业增加值增速预测均值4.9%，固定资产投资累计增速预测均值为-2.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速 预测均值为1.8%，贸易顺差预测均值为1113.5亿美元，新增贷款预测均值为7182.5亿元，社会融资总量 预测均值为1.8万亿，M2同比增速预测均值为8%。 1月5日至6日，中国人民银行工作会议围绕货币政策实施、金融服务实体经济、风险防控、金融改革开 放等核心领域，明确行动路径。货币政策方面，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。经济学家们预计未来政策将保持连 续性、稳定性兼顾灵活 ...

咱们今天不纠结城市优越感，也不评判哪种消费习惯更好，就单纯聊聊最近刷屏的京沪社零数据。 很多人看了数据就下结论，说上海人精致爱打扮，北京人低调爱存钱，这话听着像那么回事，但真要细究，可能就是被数据牵着走了。 毕竟这俩城市是全国消费的风向标，它们的消费变化，其实藏着咱们普通人接下来该怎么花钱的信号，所以今天就从这组反差数据切入，把背后的逻辑扒清 楚。 先把最火的这组数据摆出来：今年前十一个月，上海的服装、化妆品消费规模，分别是北京的六倍和四倍；反过来北京的黄金珠宝消费，却是上海的两倍。 | | 2025年1-10月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 质 물 | 10月 | 同比增长(%) | 1-10月 | | 社会消费品零售总额 | 14454364 | 12.6 | 112485646 | | 其中:限额以上批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业网上零售额 | 7715676 | 21.2 | 47380672 | | 技消费形态分 | | | | | 餐饮收入 | 1070392 | -0. 1 | 11170510 | | 商能变 | 13383972 | 13.7 | 10131 ...

每经AI快讯，12月30日，西班牙12月份CPI同比上升2.9%，预估为2.8%。西班牙11月季调后实际社会消 费品零售总额同比增长6.0%。 ...

11月份，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额39444亿 元，增长2.5%。1—11月份，社会消费品零售总额456067亿元，增长4.0%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品 零售额411637亿元，增长4.6%。 按经营单位所在地分，11月份，城镇消费品零售额37684亿元，同比增长1.0%；乡村消费品零售额6214 亿元，增长2.8%。1—11月份，城镇消费品零售额394544亿元，增长3.9%；乡村消费品零售额61523亿 元，增长4.4%。 按消费类型分，11月份，商品零售额37841亿元，同比增长1.0%；餐饮收入6057亿元，增长3.2%。1— 11月份，商品零售额403822亿元，增长4.1%；餐饮收入52245亿元，增长3.3%。 按零售业态分，1—11月份，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店、品牌专卖店零售 额同比分别增长6.0%、4.7%、0.7%、3.4%、0.1%。 1—11月份，全国网上零售额144582亿元，同比增长9.1%。其中，实物商品网上零售额118193亿元，增 长5.7%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为25.9%；在实物商 ...

固定资产投资方面，1—11月，全市固定资产投资同比下降4.2%，降幅较1—9月收窄1.0个百分 点。分领域看，基础设施投资同比增长4.3%，制造业投资增长11.9%。高技术产业投资增长9.3%，其 中，航空航天器及设备制造业、计算机及办公设备制造业、医疗仪器设备及仪器仪表制造业投资分别增 长45.9%、21.5%、23.7%。 居民消费价格方面，11月份，全市居民消费价格同比上涨0.4%，涨幅较上月提高0.3个百分点。分 类别看，食品烟酒价格同比下降0.8%，衣着价格上涨2.1%，居住价格下降0.6%，生活用品及服务价格 上涨1.6%，交通通信价格下降2.5%，教育文化娱乐价格上涨2.2%，医疗保健价格上涨2.5%，其他用 品及服务价格上涨15.9%。1—11月，全市居民消费价格同比下降0.3%。 工业方面，1—11月，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%。分经济类型看，国有控股企业增加 值同比增长7.8%，股份制企业增长9.3%，私营企业增长10.7%。分行业看，仪器仪表制造业、通用设 备制造业、专用设备制造业增加值同比分别增长13.5%、10.3%、10.1%。分产品看，3D打印设备、工 业机器人、新能 ...

格隆汇12月23日｜广州市统计局公布2025年1-11月广州经济运行情况。数据显示，今年前11个月，规模 以上工业增加值同比增长1.3%，其中新能源车累计产量增长22.6%，民用无人机产量增长41.1%；社会 消费品零售总额同比增长4.2%，总量突破万亿元；全市完成客运量3.11亿人次，同比增长1.1%。 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of Jiangsu Province is stable and progressing in 2023, with industrial value-added growth of 6.6% year-on-year from January to November [1] - In November, the industrial value-added increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing (7.5%), high-tech manufacturing (10.4%), and digital core product manufacturing (10.2%) [1] Industrial Performance - The manufacturing sectors such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment saw a growth of 13.5%, while railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment grew by 13.3% [1] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 9.1% year-on-year from January to November, with infrastructure investment down by 2.9% [1] - Manufacturing investment declined by 4.4%, accounting for 46.2% of total investment, which is an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Service Sector - The revenue of the service industry increased by 7.5% year-on-year from January to October, with notable growth in resident services (15.5%), repair and other services (13.4%), and scientific research and technical services (10.1%) [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 42,586.8 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% year-on-year from January to November [2] - In November, retail sales of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and audio-visual equipment grew by 26.2%, 13.1%, and 12.0% respectively [2] - The wholesale and retail sectors saw sales growth of 5.1% and 7.1% year-on-year, while accommodation and catering sectors grew by 2.5% and 5.4% respectively [2] Financial Sector - By the end of November, the balance of RMB deposits in financial institutions reached 27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [2] - The balance of RMB loans was 28.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [2] Price Trends - In November, the consumer price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while the cumulative index from January to November showed a decrease of 0.3% [3] - The producer price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative decline of 2.7% from January to November [3]

固 定 收 益 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 10 证 固定收益周报 短债利率下行，超长债波动幅度较大 ――利率债周报 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 12 月 19 日 统计区间：2025 年 12 月 12 日至 2025 年 12 月 18 日 重要事件点评 金融、经济和财政数据：11 月企业和居民信贷数据依然不佳，工增、固 投和社零同比增速也有一定放缓，和 10 月数据特征相近，增值税和企业 所得税收入累计同比涨幅收窄也与 10-11 月数据降温有关。展望来看，未 来的积极因素在于政策性金融工具对信贷的撬动，以及年末财政"赶进 度"集中支出，有望为 2026 年打下良好开局。 资金价格：央行投放跨年资金 统计期内，央行超量 2000 亿元续作 6 个月买断式逆回购，并开展 1000 亿元 14 天逆回购操作呵护跨年资金面，DR014 和 R014 在 12 月 18 日分 别上行 10bp 和 6bp，DR001 和 DR007 保持平稳，同业存单收益率小幅 回落，符合年末存单收益率下行的季节性特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mixed performance in industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales for November 2025, suggesting underlying economic challenges and a need for cautious optimism in investment strategies [4][5][6][7]. Industrial Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease from 4.9% in October. However, the month-on-month growth rate improved to +0.44%, indicating a positive trend in short-term production [5]. - Among the three major sectors, the mining industry saw an increase in year-on-year growth, while the manufacturing and utilities sectors experienced a decline [5]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6%, marking a widening decline. However, the month-on-month growth rate for November showed a smaller decline of -1.03% [6]. - Investment in real estate, manufacturing, and broad infrastructure remained weak, contributing to the overall decline in fixed asset investment [6]. Retail Sales - The year-on-year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month. The month-on-month growth rate was -0.42%, which was weaker than seasonal expectations [7]. - Sales growth across different types of consumer goods also showed a decline compared to the previous month [7]. Bond Market Insights - Since August 2025, the yield on government bonds has shown a clear divergence, with short-term yields remaining stable and declining, while long-term yields, particularly the 30-year yield, have been on an upward trend, resulting in a steeper yield curve [8]. - The current liquidity in the market is relatively loose, and despite weak fundamentals, there is a growing optimism among investors regarding the bond market, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% [8]. - In the convertible bond market, as of December 12, 2025, the performance of convertible bonds has lagged behind the equity market, with a year-to-date increase of 16.5% compared to 21.8% for the broader index. However, convertible bonds are still considered relatively high-quality assets in the long term [8].

Group 1: Industrial Growth - The industrial added value in Sichuan Province increased by 6.8% year-on-year from January to November [1] - Among 41 major industries, 33 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (18.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (13.7%), and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (12.7%) [1] - The natural gas production in Sichuan rose by 11.5%, while the output of lithium-ion batteries surged by 45.9% and industrial robots increased by 42.1% [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the primary industry grew by 10.8%, while the secondary industry saw a 7.7% increase, with industrial investment specifically rising by 8.0% [1] Group 3: Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 26,395.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales in urban areas amounted to 21,378.2 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, while rural retail sales increased by 6.0% to 5,017.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The catering revenue was 3,614.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and retail sales through the internet by large enterprises grew by 21.2% [2]