港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包新消费龙头，成分股近乎 囊括港股消费的各个领域； 旅游ETF（562510）跟踪中证细分旅游指数，专注服务消费，不含商品消费，覆盖免税、航空公 司、酒店餐饮等细分行业。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 消息面上，今年春节，是海南自贸港岛内居民消费的进境商品"零关税"政策落地后迎来的首个长 假，数据显示，春节假期全市预计实现社会消费品零售总额34.9亿元，同比增长2.6%。据统计，春节假 期全市离岛免税店累计销售额12.06亿元，同比增长12.7%。 近期，春节消费呈现结构性回暖特征，餐饮链表现尤为亮眼。国金证券指出，春节假期延长叠 加"乐购新春"消费补贴、以旧换新置换补贴等政策持续发力，显著拉动餐饮出行数据向好；调味品、速 冻食品等餐饮链板块节前经销商备货谨慎、库存处于合理水平，2月末至3月有望开启补库存行情，叠加 去年一季度基数偏低，板块需求有望逐步触底改善。同时，零食板块维持高景气，节前礼盒装产品动销 旺盛，量贩渠道大幅上新礼包并加速开店扩张，后续有望通过渠道渗透与新品推广实现业绩高增。 低位关注消费相关行业主题ETF修复机会： ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail sales of consumer goods (社零) across 31 provinces in China for 2025 reflect the spending capacity of these regions, indicating economic potential and resilience in the context of expanding domestic demand [1][4]. Group 1: Overall Retail Sales Data - Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong are the top three provinces in terms of total retail sales, with figures of 4.64 trillion, 4.60 trillion, and 4.21 trillion yuan respectively, showing growth rates of 3.3%, 2.8%, and 5.1% compared to 2024 [5][6]. - The average growth rate of retail sales across the provinces is 2.70%, with notable increases in provinces like Shaanxi, Hebei, and Henan, which exceed the average by 2.3, 1.9, and 1.9 percentage points respectively [3][11]. Group 2: Factors Supporting High Retail Sales - The large population base and economic scale of Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong create a natural advantage for consumer spending [6][7]. - Jiangsu's retail sales growth is attributed to the strong performance of green and smart products, with significant increases in sales of electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances [8][12]. Group 3: Regional Insights and Strategies - Shaanxi's retail sales growth is driven by effective policy measures, including subsidies for vehicle purchases and a focus on cultural tourism, which enhances consumer spending [11][14]. - Hebei and Henan also benefit from consumption subsidy policies that boost sales in automotive and upgraded goods, with Henan's per capita disposable income growing by 5.4% [12][14]. Group 4: Recommendations for Enhancing Retail Sales - To further increase retail sales, strategies such as optimizing consumption scenarios, developing night-time economies, and focusing on digital consumption innovation are recommended [14][15]. - Emphasizing income growth and job stability is crucial for enhancing consumer spending capacity [14].

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year at constant prices, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [1][8] - The contribution rates to economic growth from final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services were 52%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively for the year [7][8] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods for 2025 amounted to 501202 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, slightly up from 3.5% in the previous year [3][10][11] - In December, retail sales showed a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.12% [3][10] Fixed Asset Investment - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for 2025 was 485186 billion yuan, down 3.8% from the previous year, with a notable decline in real estate development investment by 17.2% [5][12] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment saw a slight increase of 0.6% [12] Economic Trends - The economic performance in 2025 exhibited a pattern of high growth in the first half followed by a slowdown in the second half, attributed to reduced fiscal support and a weakening real estate market [9] - The decline in investment was a significant drag on economic performance, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need to stabilize investment in 2026 [12][15] Future Outlook - For 2026, there are expectations for a rebound in consumer spending, with potential increases in fiscal support for consumption, aiming for a retail sales growth rate of around 5.0% [16] - Investment in infrastructure is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on high-quality projects and strategic emerging industries, despite challenges from high base effects and external demand fluctuations [16][17]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [1][8] - The contribution rates to economic growth from final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services were 52%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively for the year [7][8] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods for 2025 amounted to 501202 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, slightly up from 3.5% in the previous year [3][10] - In December, retail sales showed a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.12% [3][10] Fixed Asset Investment - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for 2025 was 485186 billion yuan, down 3.8% from the previous year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 17.2% [5][12] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment saw a slight increase of 0.6% [12] Economic Trends - The economic performance in 2025 exhibited a pattern of high growth in the first half followed by a slowdown in the second half, attributed to reduced fiscal support and a weakening real estate market [9] - The decline in investment growth since the second quarter has been a significant drag on economic performance, prompting a focus on stabilizing investment in 2026 [12][15] Future Outlook - For 2026, there are expectations for a stabilization in investment, particularly in infrastructure, with a potential recovery in consumer spending driven by increased fiscal support [15][16] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to continue evolving, focusing on high-tech industries and technological upgrades, despite short-term fluctuations [17]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the various policy initiatives being implemented by multiple government departments to boost employment, consumption, and innovation in the current year [1] Group 2 - In terms of employment, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to introduce new employment policies specifically targeting college graduates and young people, as well as initiatives to support migrant workers through both outbound and local employment opportunities [1] Group 3 - Regarding consumption, the Ministry of Commerce has announced that new subsidies will include smartwatches, smart bands, and smart glasses, thereby expanding the market for new products and technologies [1] Group 4 - On the innovation front, the Ministry of Science and Technology emphasizes the need to strengthen original innovation and tackle key core technologies, aligning with the strategic goal of building an international technology innovation center [1] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicates that a series of measures will be taken to ensure seamless integration between the innovation chain and the industrial chain, reflecting a strong commitment to implementing these policies effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The subsidy program in Heze City aims to stimulate consumer spending and support local businesses through a comprehensive appliance and digital product replacement initiative, running from January 16 to December 31, 2026 [1][8]. Group 1: Subsidy Program Details - The subsidy program covers 10 categories of products, including major appliances like refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, as well as digital products such as smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart glasses [2]. - Consumers can receive a subsidy of 15% off the final sales price after discounts, with a maximum of 1500 yuan for appliances and 500 yuan for digital products per item [2]. Group 2: Market Response and Participation - Local businesses have reported increased customer traffic and sales, with some experiencing a doubling of daily sales due to the subsidy program, which has boosted market confidence [4]. - Consumers have expressed high enthusiasm for the subsidy, with early adopters already benefiting from significant savings on their purchases, demonstrating the program's immediate impact on consumer behavior [5][7]. Group 3: Application Process - The application process for the subsidy is designed to be user-friendly, allowing consumers to apply through the "Love Shandong" government service platform or the Heze City recycling platform, ensuring quick access to subsidies [8]. - Each consumer can claim a subsidy for one item per category, with a total of three opportunities to claim within each category, emphasizing the program's structured approach to consumer engagement [8].

Core Insights - The 2026 Shanghai National Consumption Subsidy Coupons have been officially issued, with a focus on digital and home appliance products, aiming to stimulate consumer spending and enhance the shopping experience for residents [1][3]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - The new subsidy policy includes a 15% discount on digital products such as smartphones, smartwatches, and smart glasses, with a maximum subsidy of 500 yuan per item, and up to 1500 yuan for major home appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners [4]. - The inclusion of smart wearable devices in the subsidy program is seen as a strategic move to attract younger consumers and meet their demands for technology and fashion [4][7]. Group 2: Market Response - Major retail channels in Shanghai, including Suning and JD.com, are actively promoting the subsidy program, enhancing their service offerings to facilitate consumer access to the subsidies [6]. - Retailers are implementing a seamless online and offline experience, with nearly 30,000 stores prepared to assist consumers in redeeming their subsidies [6]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The subsidy program is designed to promote green and smart products, aligning with broader trends in consumer preferences and enhancing overall quality of life [7]. - The initiative is expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the Shanghai market, while also supporting the integration of physical retail and digital economy [7].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 商品日报 20251231 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金属价格重回涨势，2026 年消费补贴政策优化 海外方面，美联储内部偏鸽——多数官员认为在 12 月后、若通胀按预期回落，继续降 息是合适的；少数主张阶段性观望。支持降息的核心理由在于就业下行风险上升、需防止劳 动力市场进一步恶化；同时亦有声音警惕通胀再度固化。技术层面一致认定准备金已处充足 区间，必要时将通过短期国债开展准备金管理（RMP）。市场近期较为亮眼的金属在经历短 暂调整后表现分化，白银强势反弹、黄金冲高回落；基本金属全面走强，伦铜涨近 4%，伦 镍涨超 6%创 14 个月新高，伦锡、伦锌同步上行。 国内方面，2026 年"两新"国补政策出炉，补贴结构调整、标准下调。补贴对象新增智 能眼镜、智能家居等智能产品，家装、电动自行车退出国补范围；汽车补贴按车价 10%–12% 执行，封顶标准延续 2025 年（2 万元/1.5 万元）；家电补贴范围收窄，一级能效补贴比例由 20%降至 15%，单件上限由 ...

Group 1 - In 2026, China's economic development will focus on using domestic circulation stability to counter international circulation uncertainties, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts in both supply and demand to solidify consumption growth [1][12] - The transition from "incremental pull" to "structural optimization" in consumption policies is necessary to better align supply with the evolving demand for upgraded consumption, addressing both supply shortages and oversupply issues [3][4] - Monetary policy tools have ample room for action, with expectations for continued reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, alongside innovative structural monetary policy tools to stimulate credit without causing fund "idle" [5][6] Group 2 - The core constraint on consumer spending is the need for stable income expectations, which can be addressed through policies that enhance income stability and reduce precautionary savings pressures in housing, education, and healthcare [4][5] - The RMB is expected to experience a "strong first, weak later" trend against the USD in 2026, influenced by both domestic monetary easing and external factors such as US interest rate changes and geopolitical dynamics [6][7] - The "Five Major Articles" in financial services for the real economy are anticipated to make significant progress in areas such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, contingent on regulatory support and policy breakthroughs [8][9][10][11]

Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference indicates a moderate approach to policy, focusing on stability rather than strong stimulus, with no significant adjustments expected for 2025 policies [1] - The policy tone aims for gradual progress to stabilize growth and alleviate deflationary pressures, without strong measures for re-inflation or breaking the deflation cycle [1] - The nominal GDP growth forecast for 2026 is conservatively maintained at just over 4%, which is more cautious than market consensus [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit, including both explicit and implicit components, is set to be similar to 2025 levels, but with a noticeable front-loading towards infrastructure investments [2] - Key areas for fiscal spending include urban renewal, underground infrastructure, green transition projects, and public expenditures related to AI computing centers [2] - There is potential for an additional fiscal space equivalent to 0.5% of GDP if economic conditions worsen in the first half of the year [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The actual space for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is limited, with a focus on structural and quasi-fiscal tools [2] - Any interest rate cuts in the coming year are expected to be modest, around 10 to 20 basis points, which is relatively small compared to the Federal Reserve's potential cuts [2] Group 4: Real Estate Policy - Further support for the real estate sector, such as mortgage rate subsidies, is likely to be detailed after the national two sessions, with implementation expected in the second quarter of 2026 [2] - A broad and sustained approach to mortgage rate subsidies could stabilize expectations in major cities, potentially aligning mortgage rates closer to local rental yields [2] Group 5: Consumer Policy - The continuation of the national subsidy for trade-ins is expected, but there is uncertainty about the introduction of new consumer support measures like service industry subsidies or consumption vouchers [3] - Direct subsidies for mortgage rates and service industry consumption may be necessary to stimulate consumer spending, with implementation likely pushed to the second half of next year [3] Group 6: Export Outlook - Despite concerns about export sustainability, the outlook remains positive, with China's share of global exports currently at 15% and expected to rise to 16-17% over the next five years [3] - The competitive landscape for Chinese industries is expected to improve, with significant advantages in emerging sectors such as batteries, new energy vehicles, and robotics [5] Group 7: Structural Changes in Global Trade - The trend of de-China-ization is not expected to reduce China's market share, as trade chains are lengthening rather than replacing Chinese enterprises [4] - China's competitive edge in high-value segments and its talent pool, with 11 million engineering graduates annually, positions it favorably in key industries [5] Group 8: Consumer Transition - A shift towards consumer-driven growth is anticipated, with a focus on enhancing social security and welfare, particularly for farmers and migrant workers, to boost consumption capacity [6] - Support for durable goods and broader service sector consumption is essential for economic recovery, alongside measures to stabilize the real estate market [6]