Core Insights - The 2026 Shanghai National Consumption Subsidy Coupons have been officially issued, with a focus on digital and home appliance products, aiming to stimulate consumer spending and enhance the shopping experience for residents [1][3]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - The new subsidy policy includes a 15% discount on digital products such as smartphones, smartwatches, and smart glasses, with a maximum subsidy of 500 yuan per item, and up to 1500 yuan for major home appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners [4]. - The inclusion of smart wearable devices in the subsidy program is seen as a strategic move to attract younger consumers and meet their demands for technology and fashion [4][7]. Group 2: Market Response - Major retail channels in Shanghai, including Suning and JD.com, are actively promoting the subsidy program, enhancing their service offerings to facilitate consumer access to the subsidies [6]. - Retailers are implementing a seamless online and offline experience, with nearly 30,000 stores prepared to assist consumers in redeeming their subsidies [6]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The subsidy program is designed to promote green and smart products, aligning with broader trends in consumer preferences and enhancing overall quality of life [7]. - The initiative is expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the Shanghai market, while also supporting the integration of physical retail and digital economy [7].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 商品日报 20251231 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金属价格重回涨势，2026 年消费补贴政策优化 海外方面，美联储内部偏鸽——多数官员认为在 12 月后、若通胀按预期回落，继续降 息是合适的；少数主张阶段性观望。支持降息的核心理由在于就业下行风险上升、需防止劳 动力市场进一步恶化；同时亦有声音警惕通胀再度固化。技术层面一致认定准备金已处充足 区间，必要时将通过短期国债开展准备金管理（RMP）。市场近期较为亮眼的金属在经历短 暂调整后表现分化，白银强势反弹、黄金冲高回落；基本金属全面走强，伦铜涨近 4%，伦 镍涨超 6%创 14 个月新高，伦锡、伦锌同步上行。 国内方面，2026 年"两新"国补政策出炉，补贴结构调整、标准下调。补贴对象新增智 能眼镜、智能家居等智能产品，家装、电动自行车退出国补范围；汽车补贴按车价 10%–12% 执行，封顶标准延续 2025 年（2 万元/1.5 万元）；家电补贴范围收窄，一级能效补贴比例由 20%降至 15%，单件上限由 ...

北京商报：2025年内，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构 优化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期 可持续增长，政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破？ 转自：北京日报客户端 2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，中国经济在多重变局中展现出韧性， 金融市场在政策合力下保持稳健运行。 步入2026年，"十五五"启幕之际，如何进一步释放消费潜能？货币政策如何从总量宽松转向结构优化？ 人民币汇率如何在内外挑战中保持基本稳定？债市供需结构将如何演化？"内循环"与"高水平对外开 放"又该如何协同发力？ 针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了兴业银行首席经济学家，兴业研究学术评审委员会主席鲁政 委，在他看来，2026年"以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性"将成为我国经济发展的必然选 择，应从供需两端协同发力稳固消费增长根基；步入"十五五"后，传统货币政策工具与创新货币政策工 具均有发力空间，预计人民银行将继续降准降息；在结构性货币政策工具方面，可对当前效果较好的工 具进行"加量降价"；同时，金融服 ...

地产和消费的进一步政策，可能要经过上半年的演绎之后，才会相机抉择。 中央经济工作会议定调是比较温和的托底而非强刺激，更多是对 2025 年已有政策的延续，没有较大的 调整转向。 政策基调是稳妥布局、渐进推进，想要稳住目前的增长水平、部分减轻通缩压力，但没有体现出对实现 再通胀、打破通缩循环进行强刺激或较大路径调整的诉求。 考虑到这些因素，我们对 2026 年的增长，特别是名义 GDP 增长的预期，还是保持在大概 4% 出头的名 义 GDP 增速，这比市场的一致预期更保守一点。 对于明年的财政政策、货币政策、房地产和消费政策而言：财政尽管总量上比较温和，但可能会前置到 一季度和上半年，用基建投资作为抓手；货币政策真正降息降准空间不是特别大；地产的进一步扶持政 策和消费的进一步刺激政策，可能要靠形势的演绎，也就是形势比人强，要经过上半年的演绎之后，政 策才会相机抉择。 特别是中国占全球出口市场的份额已经15%，未来五年有望再上层楼，达到16%~17%。也就是说中国 出口增速依然会高于全球贸易增长，会得到更多的市场份额。 为什么去中国化不会使得中国份额下降？总体而言，这里面有很多所谓的贸易转移，还是中国企业走向 了 ...

0:00 / 0:23 "更新"是今年经济主要的变化之一，从消费场景的"更新"、基础的设备"更新"，再到城市"更新"，不断地"更新"，持续激发中国经济的活力，也为百姓 带来"更新"的生活。 今年，更新的产品供给、更新的服务推送，让消费者的个性化需求不断得到满足，消费作为中国经济增长主引擎的作用更加稳固，让我们一起听听大家 都更新了哪些新产品和新服务？ 0:00 / 1:17 青岛市民 刘华英："以旧换新"我换了一台热水器，原价应该是五千多元，政府补贴以后花了不到三千块钱。另外，我这个老太太现在还很时髦啊，还 会网购衣服。 江西师范大学学生 黄姿燕：我最近其实观察到了，周边出现了很多比如说24小时无人健身房、室内的滑雪场，这都是我之前没有体验过的一种新型运 动方式。 南充市民 唐鑫：今年换了一个新能源车，它的科技感包括它的智能性，比以前油车开起来体验感会好很多，会让开车变得更有意思。 上海市民 单女士：我的钱更多的"更新"到了体验上面，比如我会去体验网球课，然后打发球机之类的，这些体验会有一种比较幸福的感觉。 攀枝花市民 艾茜丽奥：玻璃可以自动清洗，炒菜也有机器炒，家电类的都是一键AI就唤醒了，我希望以后我的家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market has significantly improved due to the year-end shopping season, driving the performance of REITs related products higher [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since 2025, 18 public REITs have been listed, with 5 in the consumer infrastructure category, achieving an average first-day increase of 20%, much higher than the 1.5% for 8 similar products in 2024 [1]. - As of November 9, the 12 listed consumer REITs have an average annual increase of 24%, with notable performers like the Jiashi Wumei Consumer REIT exceeding 50% and the Huaxia Jinmao Commercial REIT over 40% [2]. - The total market capitalization of the 12 consumer REITs has surpassed 42 billion [2]. Group 2: Subscription and Demand - The recent subscription for consumer REITs has been robust, with the Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT receiving nearly 160 billion in subscriptions before its listing on October 31 [4]. - The effective subscription multiples for the Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT were 535.2 times for public investors and 252.6 times for institutional investors [4]. - The strong demand reflects market recognition of quality commercial assets and the scarcity of foreign brands in the public REITs sector [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3 of this year, 9 disclosed consumer REITs generated a total revenue of 598 million, with a net profit of 20.11 million [5]. - The Huaxia Huayun Commercial REIT led in revenue with 197 million, followed by Huaxia Dayuecheng Commercial REIT and Zhongjin Yinli Consumer REIT [5]. - The income of consumer REITs primarily comes from rent, accounting for approximately 65% to 80% of total revenue [5]. Group 4: Operational Insights - The operational capabilities of shopping centers, including renovation and innovation, remain core competitive advantages for consumer REITs [6]. - The rental market is currently under pressure, with structural differences observed between first-tier and second-tier cities [5][6]. - Future performance will depend on the continuation of consumer policies and their actual implementation [5][6].

Core Insights - The consumer market's heat has significantly boosted the REITs market, particularly in consumer infrastructure REITs, driven by the consumption peak during events like "Double Eleven" [1][2] - The overall public REITs market has shown strong performance this year, with consumer infrastructure REITs leading in growth due to consumption subsidy policies and improved market expectations [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 9, the average increase for 12 listed consumer REITs this year is 24%, with notable performers like the Jiashi Wumei Consumer REIT exceeding 50% growth and Huaxia Jinmao Commercial REIT over 40% [3] - The total market capitalization of the 12 consumer REITs has surpassed 42 billion [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - The recent surge in consumer REITs has led to high subscription rates, with the Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT receiving nearly 160 billion in subscriptions before its listing [5] - The demand reflects market recognition of quality commercial assets and the scarcity of foreign brands in the public REITs sector [5] Group 3: Performance Disparities - In Q3, consumer REITs collectively reported revenues of 598 million and net profits of 20.11 million, with Huaxia Huarun Commercial REIT leading in revenue [7] - There is a notable performance disparity among different REITs, with some achieving significantly higher revenues than others [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The operational capabilities of shopping centers, including renovation and innovation, remain core competitive advantages for consumer REITs [8] - The macroeconomic environment and interest rates will continue to influence REIT pricing and investor returns [9]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company has an annual production capacity of 480,000 tons of polystyrene products, ranking second nationally and first in South China in the polymer new materials sector [5]. - In the first half of 2025, the company's operating revenue and net profit continued to grow, supported by strong sales and profit margins of high-impact polystyrene (HIPS) products [7]. - As of September 2, 2025, the company completed a share buyback of 3,500,608 shares, accounting for 1.4415% of the total share capital [5]. Group 2: Market and Competitive Strategy - The company is enhancing its competitiveness in various fields, including new energy vehicles, medical devices, and food packaging, by accelerating the launch of low-temperature resistant HIPS products [3]. - To address intense industry competition, the company is increasing investment in product formulation R&D and expanding downstream application areas [3]. - The company is actively seeking overseas market opportunities to boost export growth, as the export scale of polystyrene has been steadily increasing in recent years [7]. Group 3: Financial Health and Shareholder Relations - The significant decline in cash flow from operating activities in the first half of 2025 was primarily due to increases in inventory and operating receivables and payables [5]. - The company maintains a sales policy of "payment before delivery" for most customers to ensure healthy revenue quality while offering credit terms to a select few [6]. - The management is committed to reasonable dividend arrangements while ensuring normal operations and long-term development [7]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Stock Performance - The company noted that the stock price decline is influenced by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment, despite the overall market recovery [8]. - The management emphasized that there are no undisclosed significant issues affecting the company, and they are focused on improving operational quality to enhance market value [8].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.4%, while the PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.9%[2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9%, marking a continuous expansion for four months[3] - The food component of CPI fell by 4.3%, contributing approximately 0.51 percentage points to the overall CPI decline[3] Group 2: PPI Insights - The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed by 0.7 percentage points, the first contraction since March 2025[3] - PPI remained flat month-on-month after a decline of 0.2% in the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization[3] - The prices of production materials increased by 0.3% month-on-month, while living materials saw a slight recovery[3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall price data indicates an improvement, with core CPI steadily rising and PPI showing signs of stabilization[3] - The supply pressure from pork prices is expected to persist into the first quarter of next year, impacting CPI[3] - Continued improvement in price data may influence asset reallocation strategies in equity and bond markets[3]

Core Insights - The PC market in mainland China is projected to reach 10.2 million units in Q2 2025, marking a 12% year-on-year growth, driven by strong demand from both consumer and commercial sectors [1] - Apple has shown remarkable performance due to the new MacBook Air, supported by policy subsidies, while Huawei continues to lead the tablet market [1] - The growth is primarily attributed to ongoing consumer subsidy policies and robust demand from state-owned enterprises and government procurement [1] PC Market Overview - The PC market (excluding tablets) in mainland China is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and by 3% in 2026 [1] - The tablet market is projected to grow by 8% in 2025 but is expected to decline by 9% in 2026 [1] AI PC Segment - AI PCs are emerging as a new market driver, accounting for 28% of the overall PC market in Q2 2025, with an expected penetration rate of 34% for the entire year [1] - By 2026, the penetration rate of AI PCs is anticipated to rise to 52% [1] - Cumulative shipments of AI PCs in the Greater China region are projected to reach 107 million units by the end of 2029, laying a solid foundation for the proliferation of AI applications [1]