Group 1: Export Forecasts - Thailand's total export value is expected to shrink by 1.2% in 2026, primarily due to the potential expansion of U.S. tariff measures and a slowing global trade outlook [1] - The export growth to major markets is projected to slow down, with key products experiencing declines [1] Group 2: Electronic Products - The export value of Thailand's electronic products is anticipated to decrease by approximately 3.1% in 2026, mainly due to pressures in the U.S. market, particularly for integrated circuits and semiconductor products facing tariff risks under Section 232 [1] - Other electronic products, such as hard disk drives and mobile phone components, are also expected to see a slowdown after previous export acceleration [1] Group 3: Home Appliances - Thailand's home appliance export value is forecasted to decline by 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to a slowdown in air conditioner and refrigerator exports, partly because some production bases have shifted from Thailand to Vietnam [1] Group 4: Automotive and Parts - The export value of Thailand's automotive sector is expected to shrink by 3.0% in 2026, driven by increasing competition from Chinese products [1] - Additionally, stricter carbon emission and safety standards in Australia, a key export market, pose further challenges for Thai automotive exports [1] - The automotive parts exports to the U.S. are predicted to be significantly impacted by Section 232 import tariffs [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Thailand's agricultural product export value is projected to decrease by 1.4% in 2026, mainly due to stable prices and intensified global market competition, particularly with rice exports facing pressure from India's expanding exports [2] - Agricultural production is also expected to decline due to a shift from favorable La Niña conditions in 2025 to a neutral state, potentially leading to water shortages for agriculture [2] Group 6: Agro-Industrial Products - The export value of Thailand's agro-industrial products is expected to maintain growth, but the growth rate will slow to 1.0% in 2026 [3]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision to lower rates comes amid a complex economic environment, influenced by both domestic and international factors, including unprecedented challenges to the Fed's independence from political interference [1] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of volatility, with GDP growth rebounding in Q2 primarily due to a decline in imports rather than significant internal demand growth [2] - Employment trends indicate a cooling labor market, with June marking the first decline in job growth in five years [2] - The overall inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, reflecting moderate price increases despite tariff pressures [2] - Future rate cuts may occur if there are no significant changes in domestic or foreign policy, with expectations for additional cuts in the coming year [2][3] - The Fed's approach to rate cuts appears to be cautious, balancing the need to monitor economic conditions while retaining policy flexibility to address potential inflationary pressures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P Global Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.7 in August, significantly above July's 49.2, marking the first return to expansion territory in seven months, indicating a notable improvement in the business environment [1] Group 1: Business Environment - The increase in PMI reflects a significant improvement in the business environment, despite ongoing declines in overseas and mainland orders due to U.S. tariff measures [1] - Overall order demand remains stable, primarily supported by the local Hong Kong market [1] Group 2: Employment and Production - Private enterprises have resumed hiring, although the increase is modest, as business operations become more active and order demand stabilizes [1] - The pace of procurement activity contraction has slowed down [1] Group 3: Cost and Pricing - Rising raw material prices have led to an increase in input costs, although the rise is more moderate compared to the previous month, while output prices remain largely stable [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - Several forward-looking indicators continue to trend downward, with businesses still working through backlogged orders and further reducing procurement activities, suggesting that production may rely on clearing backlogs for support [1]

Core Point - The visit of Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizawa Ryozo, to the United States for tariff negotiations has been canceled due to the need for further clarifications during discussions with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Visit Cancellation - Akizawa Ryozo was scheduled to depart from Tokyo's Haneda Airport on August 28 for Washington [1] - The meetings were intended to discuss U.S. tariff measures with members of the Trump administration [1] - It remains uncertain whether Akizawa Ryozo will reschedule the visit to the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai government has approved a memorandum of understanding for the import of labor from Sri Lanka, with an immediate provision of 10,000 workers, amidst a broader strategy to supplement the workforce with labor from other countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Nepal [1] Group 1: Labor Import Strategy - The Thai government plans to introduce 10,000 workers from Sri Lanka, with over 30,000 registered applicants currently [1] - Additional labor groups will be sourced from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Nepal to meet workforce demands [1] Group 2: Labor Market Outlook - The Labor Minister expressed confidence that the domestic job market remains robust, asserting that there are ample employment opportunities available for job seekers who are flexible in their job choices [1] - The minister believes that U.S. tariff measures will not negatively impact the Thai labor market or lead to increased unemployment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's economy continues to show resilience with a GDP growth of 3.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly higher than the previous quarter's growth of 3.0% [1][2] Economic Performance - The GDP for Q2 2025 increased by 0.4% compared to Q1 2025 after seasonal adjustment [1][2] - Private consumption expenditure rose by 1.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, recovering from a decline of 1.2% in Q1 2025 [1] - Government consumption expenditure recorded a real increase of 2.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 0.9% in Q1 2025 [1] - Gross fixed capital formation increased by 2.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, following a 1.1% rise in Q1 2025 [1] - Goods exports saw a significant increase of 11.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, accelerating from 8.4% in Q1 2025 [1] - Goods imports rose by 12.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025, compared to a 7.2% increase in Q1 2025 [1] - Service output grew by 7.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 6.3% in Q1 2025 [1] - Service input increased by 7.0% year-on-year in Q2 2025, compared to 4.7% in Q1 2025 [1] External Factors - Strong external demand and improved local demand supported the economic expansion in Q2 2025 [2] - The "export rush" effect was driven by robust goods exports and a temporary easing of U.S. tariff measures [2] - The tourism sector's growth and increased cross-border transport contributed to the significant expansion of service output [2] Future Outlook - The outlook for Hong Kong's economy remains positive, supported by steady growth in the mainland economy and government measures to boost consumption and attract investment [3] - However, uncertainties in the external environment, including renewed U.S. tariffs and unclear interest rate policies, may impact future economic performance [3] - The anticipated decline of the "export rush" effect later in the year could also influence economic dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The Japanese government and the United States reaffirmed their positions regarding U.S. tariff measures and engaged in in-depth discussions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is almost no evidence suggesting that any country can avoid the tariff measures imposed by the United States [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese government, led by Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroshi Matsuno, is committed to addressing fiscal issues, including rice prices and energy concerns, as well as responding to U.S. tariff measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, indicated that if the impact and uncertainty of U.S. tariff measures continue to spread in the economy, and if cost pressures on inflation are controlled, a rate cut may be necessary [1] Group 1 - The potential need for interest rate cuts is linked to the ongoing effects of U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy [1] - The statement highlights the importance of managing inflationary cost pressures in the context of economic uncertainty [1] - The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring external economic factors that could influence domestic monetary policy decisions [1]