Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cuts that began in September 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current indicators show that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a steady pace, with employment growth at low levels but a stabilizing unemployment rate [1] - Inflation levels remain high, and uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook is still significant [1] - The unemployment rate is stabilizing around 4.4%, expected to remain below 4.5% in the first half of 2026, indicating insufficient employment pressure to support rate cuts [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's statement and Chairman Powell's remarks indicate a more optimistic view of the current economic situation, which is the primary reason for pausing rate cuts [1] - There were two dissenting votes from Fed governors advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting some internal disagreement on the decision [2] - The Fed is expected to enter a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, particularly focusing on economic and inflation data [2] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a slow pace of rate cuts, with inflation becoming a central consideration for monetary policy [3] - The next potential rate cut is anticipated around June 2026, with expectations of one to two rate cuts throughout the year, totaling around 50 basis points [3]

来源：智通财经 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.50%-3.75%不变，这是去年9月以来美联储首次按下"降息"暂停键。 美国官方数据显示，2025年第三季度，美国GDP环比折年率为4.3%，较二季度的3.8%进一步提升。12 月，失业率环比下降0.1个百分点至4.4%，当月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，和前值持平。 凯投宏观北美地区副首席经济学家斯蒂芬·布朗对智通财经表示，和12月的政策声明相比，本次政策声 明对经济增长的描述从"温和"改为"稳步"，并特别指出失业率已"显现出一些企稳迹象"。"最新的政策 声明承认GDP的稳健增长和失业率的稳定，这进一步证实美联储至少在未来几次会议上不太可能再次降 息。"布朗说。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对智通财经表示，美联储对当前经济形势更加乐观，这与近期经 济、就业数据走势相印证，是本次会议暂停降息的主要原因。经过去年9-12月连续三次"预防式"降息 后，美联储需要时间来评估前期降息的政策效果，尤其是通胀走势。 FOMC在政策声明中称，现有指标显示，经济活动在稳步扩张，就 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts [1][5] - The market is more focused on the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate rather than the rate decision, with speculation surrounding potential nominees [2][3] - The selection process for the next Chair, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, began in September 2025 and has narrowed down from 11 candidates to a final list of 2 to 4 [2] Group 2 - Current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, but he can remain on the Board until 2028, complicating the nomination process for a new Chair [3] - If Powell stays on the Board, it may limit Trump's ability to nominate a new Chair unless a vacancy is created [3] - Analysts expect Powell may continue as a Board member after May, which could disrupt current market expectations for a dovish stance [3][6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts aligns with market expectations, with 10 out of 12 members supporting the decision [5] - Economic indicators show high uncertainty, with slow job growth and stable unemployment rates, while inflation remains elevated [5] - Future rate decisions will depend on political factors and economic conditions, with potential for two more rate cuts later in the year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights President Trump's assertion that his first year of the second term has been "fantastic," claiming unprecedented success compared to previous presidents [2][3]. Economic Performance - Trump emphasizes the strong state of the U.S. economy, stating that there is "almost no inflation," despite many Americans feeling financial pressure [2][3]. - He claims that prices are continuing to decline, indicating a positive economic trend [2][3]. Immigration Policy - The administration's crackdown on immigration is cited as one of the significant successes of the year [2][3]. Inherited Challenges - Trump acknowledges that he inherited a difficult situation, referring to it as a "mess," but asserts that the country is now the strongest in the world [2][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 14, platinum and palladium prices generally rose. The PT2606 contract closed up 3.67% to $630.6 per gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 1.69% to $495.5 per gram. The escalating geopolitical situation in Iran has boosted the precious metals market, and platinum and palladium have followed the upward trend. However, the better-than-expected US retail sales data and higher PPI in November indicate that the US economy is still performing well, and the probability of interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The price movement of platinum and palladium may still fluctuate as the results of the US 232 investigation are about to be announced. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand gap of platinum and the relatively loose supply of palladium, strategies such as buying platinum at low prices or implementing a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures was $630.65, up 4.23% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) was $626, up 5.39%; the platinum basis (spot - futures) was -$4.65, down 57.92%. The closing price of palladium futures was $495.5, up 2.53%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was $476, up 2.48%; the palladium basis was -$19.5, up 4.00% [4]. - **International Prices (15:00)**: London spot platinum was $2390.2, up 3.28%; London spot gold was $1861.863, up 3.65%; NYMEX platinum was $2408.5, up 3.73%; NYMEX gold was $1924, up 3.83% [4]. - **Internal - External 15:00 Spread**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.012, up 0.02%. The spread between Guangdong platinum and London platinum was $21.75, up 39.17%; the spread between Guangdong platinum and NYMEX platinum was $17.09, up 25.03% [4]. Ratio and Inventory Information - **Ratios**: The ratio of Guangdong Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.2728, an increase of 0.0207; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2838, a decrease of 0.0046 [5]. - **Inventory (in troy ounces)**: NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,345, unchanged; NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908, unchanged. Note that due to inconsistent closing times, some platinum and palladium inventory and position data are lagging [5][6]. Position Information - **Total Positions**: NYMEX total platinum positions decreased by 4.57% to 82,836; NYMEX total palladium positions decreased by 6.04% to 19,349 [5]. - **Non - commercial Net Long Positions**: NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum positions increased by 0.38% to 18,110; NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium positions decreased by 201.40% to - 571 [5].

Core Insights - The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve indicates that as of January 5, 2026, economic activity in 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts is showing slight to moderate growth, with 3 districts remaining stable and 1 experiencing a slight decline, reflecting an overall improvement compared to previous periods [1] Economic Activity - Economic activity is characterized by slight to moderate growth in 8 districts, stability in 3, and a slight decline in 1 [1] - Overall performance has improved relative to prior periods [1] Employment Trends - Employment changes remain relatively stable, with companies increasingly relying on temporary workers and filling vacant positions to manage uncertainty [1] - Wage growth has returned to more normal levels [1] Price Trends - Prices are primarily experiencing moderate increases, with widespread cost pressures related to tariffs [1] - Some companies are beginning to pass on costs to downstream customers [1] - Energy and insurance costs are exerting pressure on profit margins [1]

Core Insights - The BlackRock Investment Institute indicates that the U.S. economic data schedule is returning to normal after delays caused by last year's government shutdown, which aids investors in assessing economic conditions, particularly labor market data [2] - The December employment report is set to be released on Friday, with analysts from The Wall Street Journal forecasting an increase of 73,000 jobs in December, up from 64,000 in November, making this data crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's next policy moves [2] Economic Data Recovery - The return to a normal economic data schedule is expected to clarify the labor market situation, which had been obscured by previous delays [2] - The focus on December's employment data is significant for market participants as it serves as a key indicator for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [2] Employment Forecast - Analysts predict a rise in non-farm payrolls for December to 73,000, indicating a positive trend in job creation compared to the previous month's figure of 64,000 [2] - This employment data is critical for market assessments regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities provides an outlook for U.S. Treasury yields in Q4, emphasizing the importance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions following the initiation of rate cuts in September. The current economic environment presents a trade-off between preventing excessive economic downturns and managing inflationary pressures, leading to uncertainty in the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Scenarios - Neutral Scenario: If the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4%-4.6% and core PCE inflation remains below 2.9%-3.1%, the Fed has a remaining rate cut space of 25-50 basis points (BP), allowing for 1-2 additional cuts of 25 BP each. The potential range for the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to be 3.8%-4.3% [2]. - Downside Employment Risk Scenario: If the unemployment rate accelerates above 4.6% and average non-farm payrolls drop below 30,000, the economy may face recessionary pressures, prompting the Fed to adopt a more aggressive easing policy. The remaining rate cut space would be 50-75 BP, allowing for 2 additional cuts of 25-50 BP each. Coupled with increased safe-haven flows into Treasuries, the potential range for the 10-year Treasury yield is estimated at 3.5%-3.8% [2]. - Inflation Rebound Scenario: If inflation accelerates due to structural and external shocks (core PCE surpassing 3.1%) while the labor market shows no significant improvement (unemployment at around 4.5%), the risk of stagflation increases. The Fed would likely adopt a hawkish stance with a remaining rate cut space of 0-25 BP, allowing for at most one additional cut. This scenario could lead to a return to an upward trend in the 10-year Treasury yield, with a potential range of 4.3%-4.7% [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - The potential early announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair and their monetary policy stance, along with market concerns regarding the Fed's independence, may cause disturbances in Treasury yields [3].

Group 1: Market Performance - On September 25, major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 45,947.32 points, the Nasdaq down 0.5% at 22,384.70 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.5% at 6,604.72 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline for these indices [1] - Intel shares surged by 8.87% following reports of discussions with TSMC regarding potential investment or manufacturing collaborations [2][3] Group 2: Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced a general decline, with Tesla falling 4.38%, marking its largest single-day drop in two months, attributed to a nearly 37% decrease in new car registrations in the EU for August [3] - Other tech stocks showed mixed performance: Apple rose by 1.81%, Nvidia by 0.41%, while Google, Microsoft, and Amazon saw declines of 0.56%, 0.61%, and nearly 1% respectively [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US economy's second-quarter GDP was revised upward to a 3.8% annualized growth rate, surpassing the initial estimate of 3.3%, driven by unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decrease in imports [6]

Core Viewpoint - A recent poll indicates that over half of American respondents are concerned about the economic situation and the Republican Party's ability to control inflation [1] Economic Sentiment - Approximately 54% of respondents believe the U.S. economy is "on the wrong track," an increase from 53% in August and 52% in July [1] - Only 35% of respondents approve of President Trump's economic measures, and just 28% approve of his performance in reducing living costs, both figures lower than previous polls [1] Political Support - Trump's approval rating stands at 41%, down one percentage point from earlier in the month [1] Economic Indicators - The Trump administration's tariffs have contributed to stock market declines and heightened public concern about the economy [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an unemployment rate of 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years [1] - Inflation has also accelerated in August [1]