美联储决议公布后，全球金融市场"波澜不惊"，美股和美债短线波动不大，美元指数短线走高，但此后 也快速回落。贵金属市场依旧火热，伦敦金现货价格在1月29日一度大涨超3%，再创历史新高。 "本次会议声明与鲍威尔的讲话均显示，美联储对美国当前经济形势更加乐观，这与近期美国经济、就 业数据走势相印证，是本次会议暂停降息的主要原因。"东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪在接受 《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 值得一提的是，美联储此次决议出现2张反对票——美联储理事米兰和沃勒主张在本次会议上降息25个 基点。威灵顿投资管理研报认为，尽管美联储声明在描述美国就业市场和经济增速时语气更趋强硬，略 显"鹰派"，但充其量仅是边际上的微调。美联储理事米兰和沃勒均对本次利率决议持反对意见，主张降 息25个基点，不过这两张反对票也基本在意料之中。 据新华财经消息，1月29日，美联储公布了2026年首次利率决议，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.50%至3.75%不变，暂停了自2025年9月份以来的连续3次降息操作，符合市场普遍预期。 美联储在会后的声明中表示，现有指标显示美国经济活动以稳健速度扩张。美国就业增长虽仍处低位， 但其失业率已 ...

来源：智通财经 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.50%-3.75%不变，这是去年9月以来美联储首次按下"降息"暂停键。 美国官方数据显示，2025年第三季度，美国GDP环比折年率为4.3%，较二季度的3.8%进一步提升。12 月，失业率环比下降0.1个百分点至4.4%，当月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，和前值持平。 凯投宏观北美地区副首席经济学家斯蒂芬·布朗对智通财经表示，和12月的政策声明相比，本次政策声 明对经济增长的描述从"温和"改为"稳步"，并特别指出失业率已"显现出一些企稳迹象"。"最新的政策 声明承认GDP的稳健增长和失业率的稳定，这进一步证实美联储至少在未来几次会议上不太可能再次降 息。"布朗说。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对智通财经表示，美联储对当前经济形势更加乐观，这与近期经 济、就业数据走势相印证，是本次会议暂停降息的主要原因。经过去年9-12月连续三次"预防式"降息 后，美联储需要时间来评估前期降息的政策效果，尤其是通胀走势。 FOMC在政策声明中称，现有指标显示，经济活动在稳步扩张，就 ...

当地时间1月28日，美国联邦储备委员会（FOMC）宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75% 之间的水平不变。这是美联储在连续三次降息后首次选择"按兵不动"。 然而，若鲍威尔留任美联储理事，且没有其他理事主动辞职或被成功免职，美联储理事会将没有空缺席 位提供给特朗普提名的新主席候选人。于是，特朗普要么在鲍威尔任期结束前，先行将其选择的主席候 选人提名填补另一个即将届满的理事席位，即米兰（Stephen Miran，米兰的理事任期至今年1月31 日），要么就必须设法"清理"出一个理事席位。 被问及下一任美联储主席的问题时，鲍威尔表示，美联储的独立性极为重要，他建议继任者与政治保持 分离，并明确美联储接受问责的渠道在于国会。 嘉盛集团分析师指出，预计鲍威尔可能在今年5月后继续以理事身份留在FOMC。一旦鲍威尔以理事身 份留任，这可能扰乱当前市场的鸽派预期。 此外，在美国联邦储备委员会中，7名美联储理事全部都是永久投票成员，且任期长达14年，而12家地 区联储主席只有5人有投票权，其中纽约联储主席为固定席位，其余4个轮值席位由11位地区联储主席轮 流担任，任期一年，新一轮任期自本次会议开始。市场预计，此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights President Trump's assertion that his first year of the second term has been "fantastic," claiming unprecedented success compared to previous presidents [2][3]. Economic Performance - Trump emphasizes the strong state of the U.S. economy, stating that there is "almost no inflation," despite many Americans feeling financial pressure [2][3]. - He claims that prices are continuing to decline, indicating a positive economic trend [2][3]. Immigration Policy - The administration's crackdown on immigration is cited as one of the significant successes of the year [2][3]. Inherited Challenges - Trump acknowledges that he inherited a difficult situation, referring to it as a "mess," but asserts that the country is now the strongest in the world [2][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 14, platinum and palladium prices generally rose. The PT2606 contract closed up 3.67% to $630.6 per gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 1.69% to $495.5 per gram. The escalating geopolitical situation in Iran has boosted the precious metals market, and platinum and palladium have followed the upward trend. However, the better-than-expected US retail sales data and higher PPI in November indicate that the US economy is still performing well, and the probability of interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The price movement of platinum and palladium may still fluctuate as the results of the US 232 investigation are about to be announced. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand gap of platinum and the relatively loose supply of palladium, strategies such as buying platinum at low prices or implementing a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures was $630.65, up 4.23% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) was $626, up 5.39%; the platinum basis (spot - futures) was -$4.65, down 57.92%. The closing price of palladium futures was $495.5, up 2.53%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was $476, up 2.48%; the palladium basis was -$19.5, up 4.00% [4]. - **International Prices (15:00)**: London spot platinum was $2390.2, up 3.28%; London spot gold was $1861.863, up 3.65%; NYMEX platinum was $2408.5, up 3.73%; NYMEX gold was $1924, up 3.83% [4]. - **Internal - External 15:00 Spread**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.012, up 0.02%. The spread between Guangdong platinum and London platinum was $21.75, up 39.17%; the spread between Guangdong platinum and NYMEX platinum was $17.09, up 25.03% [4]. Ratio and Inventory Information - **Ratios**: The ratio of Guangdong Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.2728, an increase of 0.0207; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2838, a decrease of 0.0046 [5]. - **Inventory (in troy ounces)**: NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,345, unchanged; NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908, unchanged. Note that due to inconsistent closing times, some platinum and palladium inventory and position data are lagging [5][6]. Position Information - **Total Positions**: NYMEX total platinum positions decreased by 4.57% to 82,836; NYMEX total palladium positions decreased by 6.04% to 19,349 [5]. - **Non - commercial Net Long Positions**: NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum positions increased by 0.38% to 18,110; NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium positions decreased by 201.40% to - 571 [5].

来源：市场资讯 吴说获悉，美国联邦储备系统发布的最新褐皮书显示，截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日收集的信息，美国 12 个联 储辖区中有 8 个经济活动呈现轻微至温和增长，3 个基本持平，1 个小幅下降，整体表现较此前数个周 期有所改善。就业整体变化不大，企业更多通过临时用工和填补空缺岗位应对不确定性，工资增速恢复 至较为正常水平。价格仍以温和上涨为主，关税相关成本压力普遍存在，部分企业开始向下游转嫁，能 源和保险成本对利润形成挤压。 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Insights - The BlackRock Investment Institute indicates that the U.S. economic data schedule is returning to normal after delays caused by last year's government shutdown, which aids investors in assessing economic conditions, particularly labor market data [2] - The December employment report is set to be released on Friday, with analysts from The Wall Street Journal forecasting an increase of 73,000 jobs in December, up from 64,000 in November, making this data crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's next policy moves [2] Economic Data Recovery - The return to a normal economic data schedule is expected to clarify the labor market situation, which had been obscured by previous delays [2] - The focus on December's employment data is significant for market participants as it serves as a key indicator for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [2] Employment Forecast - Analysts predict a rise in non-farm payrolls for December to 73,000, indicating a positive trend in job creation compared to the previous month's figure of 64,000 [2] - This employment data is critical for market assessments regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities provides an outlook for U.S. Treasury yields in Q4, emphasizing the importance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions following the initiation of rate cuts in September. The current economic environment presents a trade-off between preventing excessive economic downturns and managing inflationary pressures, leading to uncertainty in the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Scenarios - Neutral Scenario: If the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4%-4.6% and core PCE inflation remains below 2.9%-3.1%, the Fed has a remaining rate cut space of 25-50 basis points (BP), allowing for 1-2 additional cuts of 25 BP each. The potential range for the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to be 3.8%-4.3% [2]. - Downside Employment Risk Scenario: If the unemployment rate accelerates above 4.6% and average non-farm payrolls drop below 30,000, the economy may face recessionary pressures, prompting the Fed to adopt a more aggressive easing policy. The remaining rate cut space would be 50-75 BP, allowing for 2 additional cuts of 25-50 BP each. Coupled with increased safe-haven flows into Treasuries, the potential range for the 10-year Treasury yield is estimated at 3.5%-3.8% [2]. - Inflation Rebound Scenario: If inflation accelerates due to structural and external shocks (core PCE surpassing 3.1%) while the labor market shows no significant improvement (unemployment at around 4.5%), the risk of stagflation increases. The Fed would likely adopt a hawkish stance with a remaining rate cut space of 0-25 BP, allowing for at most one additional cut. This scenario could lead to a return to an upward trend in the 10-year Treasury yield, with a potential range of 4.3%-4.7% [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - The potential early announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair and their monetary policy stance, along with market concerns regarding the Fed's independence, may cause disturbances in Treasury yields [3].

Group 1: Market Performance - On September 25, major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 45,947.32 points, the Nasdaq down 0.5% at 22,384.70 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.5% at 6,604.72 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline for these indices [1] - Intel shares surged by 8.87% following reports of discussions with TSMC regarding potential investment or manufacturing collaborations [2][3] Group 2: Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced a general decline, with Tesla falling 4.38%, marking its largest single-day drop in two months, attributed to a nearly 37% decrease in new car registrations in the EU for August [3] - Other tech stocks showed mixed performance: Apple rose by 1.81%, Nvidia by 0.41%, while Google, Microsoft, and Amazon saw declines of 0.56%, 0.61%, and nearly 1% respectively [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US economy's second-quarter GDP was revised upward to a 3.8% annualized growth rate, surpassing the initial estimate of 3.3%, driven by unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decrease in imports [6]

Core Viewpoint - A recent poll indicates that over half of American respondents are concerned about the economic situation and the Republican Party's ability to control inflation [1] Economic Sentiment - Approximately 54% of respondents believe the U.S. economy is "on the wrong track," an increase from 53% in August and 52% in July [1] - Only 35% of respondents approve of President Trump's economic measures, and just 28% approve of his performance in reducing living costs, both figures lower than previous polls [1] Political Support - Trump's approval rating stands at 41%, down one percentage point from earlier in the month [1] Economic Indicators - The Trump administration's tariffs have contributed to stock market declines and heightened public concern about the economy [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an unemployment rate of 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years [1] - Inflation has also accelerated in August [1]