中国银河固收认为，随着美联储在9月议息会议上启动降息，探寻后续降息路径变得关键。当前美国经 济正处于劳动力市场持续放缓与通胀持续回升的组合之中，美联储面临着在防范经济过度下滑和抑制潜 在通胀压力之间的权衡。因此，未来降息的节奏与幅度仍存在一定不确定性，因此对未来降息进行多路 径展望，并判断年内美债收益率的可能区间。 就业下行风险爆发情形：若失业率加速攀升并突破4.6%、平均新增非农就业回落至3万人以内，则经济 将面临衰退压力，美联储将转向更激进的宽松政策，美联储年内剩余降息空间50-75BP，对应后续还有 2次降息，单次幅度25-50BP，叠加避险情绪下资金流入美债市场，年内10年期美债收益率可能的区间 为【3.5%-3.8%】。 通胀回升情形：若美联储启动降息后，通胀因结构性与外生冲击而加速上行（核心PCE通胀加速突破 3.1%），而劳动力市场未有明显改善（失业率升至4.5%左右），导致滞胀风险增加。美联储将采取鹰 派降息，年内剩余降息空间0-25BP，对应后续还有至多1次降息，同时点阵图显示2026年不降息（目前 显示降息1次），参考去年降息周期的经验，这将导致10年期美债收益率重回上行通道，年内可能的区 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - On September 25, major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 45,947.32 points, the Nasdaq down 0.5% at 22,384.70 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.5% at 6,604.72 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline for these indices [1] - Intel shares surged by 8.87% following reports of discussions with TSMC regarding potential investment or manufacturing collaborations [2][3] Group 2: Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced a general decline, with Tesla falling 4.38%, marking its largest single-day drop in two months, attributed to a nearly 37% decrease in new car registrations in the EU for August [3] - Other tech stocks showed mixed performance: Apple rose by 1.81%, Nvidia by 0.41%, while Google, Microsoft, and Amazon saw declines of 0.56%, 0.61%, and nearly 1% respectively [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US economy's second-quarter GDP was revised upward to a 3.8% annualized growth rate, surpassing the initial estimate of 3.3%, driven by unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decrease in imports [6]

新华财经华盛顿9月24日电近日公布的民意调查结果显示，超过半数受访美国民众对美国经济形势以及 共和党平抑物价的能力"感到担忧"。 民调还显示，特朗普的支持率为41%，比本月初下滑一个百分点。 今年初以来，特朗普政府出台一系列加征关税措施，引发股市接连下跌，美国民众对经济的担忧加剧。 美国劳工部本月5日公布的非农业部门就业数据显示，美国8月份失业率升至4.3%，创近4年来新高。此 外，美国8月的通胀也在加速。 （文章来源：新华社） 这项线上调查由路透社与民调机构益普索集团在全美范围内于19日至21日进行，共1019人参与。 根据民意调查结果，认为美国经济"正走在错误轨道上"的受访者约占54%，高于8月份的53%和7月份的 52%。同时，仅35%受访者认可美国总统特朗普的经济措施，仅28%受访者认可其在降低生活成本方面 的表现，这两个数字均低于之前的民调结果。 ...

新华社华盛顿9月24日电 近日公布的民意调查结果显示，超过半数受访美国民众对美国经济形势 以及共和党平抑物价的能力"感到担忧"。 这项线上调查由路透社与民调机构益普索集团在全美范围内于19日至21日进行，共1019人参与。 根据民意调查结果，认为美国经济"正走在错误轨道上"的受访者约占54%，高于8月份的53%和7月 份的52%。同时，仅35%受访者认可美国总统特朗普的经济措施，仅28%受访者认可其在降低生活成本 方面的表现，这两个数字均低于之前的民调结果。 民调还显示，特朗普的支持率为41%，比本月初下滑一个百分点。 今年初以来，特朗普政府出台一系列加征关税措施，引发股市接连下跌，美国民众对经济的担忧加 剧。美国劳工部本月5日公布的非农业部门就业数据显示，美国8月份失业率升至4.3%，创近4年来新 高。此外，美国8月的通胀也在加速。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 ...

在经济上，今年以来美国经济呈现一个宽幅震荡的趋势，虽然第二季度美国GDP增速有反弹，但更多的 是因为进口退坡带来的数据繁荣，并不是它的内需在显著扩大和增长。此外，关税也是一种课税，它会 对内需产生抑制和收缩效应。美国就业的转冷也比较明显，六月美国新增就业人数也是五年来首次由增 长转为萎缩。在物价方面，由于美国的进口商承担了大部分的关税，加上前期加征关税是分阶段实施， 且很多商品也进行了进口关税的豁免，所以物价的总体上涨是相对温和的。美国8月消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨2.9%，相对来说也是近期比较高的水平。但是整体的关税压力现在传导得并不完全， 从美国大的外部环境来说，其关税措施及后期的贸易谈判还充满了很多的不确定性。 这次降息之后，如果没有大的一个变动，美国内政外交没有一个非常剧烈的波动，今年年底以前可能还 会有降息，那么明年也会有几次的降息。 目前来看，降息的进程主动权还是更多掌握在美联储手里，它或许更多是一种边降边看、边降边看的降 息方式。这次降息主要是考虑到八月美国对绝大多数国家实施的对等关税落地之后，物价的传导，特别 是对商品端及相关物流仓储服务的价格会走高。此外，降息的频次及幅度也要为将来防 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director by President Trump, amid claims of manipulated employment data, has raised significant concerns about the integrity and reliability of U.S. economic statistics [1][2][3] Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Impact - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a rise in the unemployment rate and only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added in July, which fell short of market expectations [1] - The downward revisions of job numbers for May and June, now reported as 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, indicate a cooling job market and may reflect previously underestimated economic concerns [1][2] - Economic analysts suggest that the weak employment data aligns with broader economic growth issues, influenced by tariffs, federal layoffs, and funding cuts [2] Group 2: Political Implications and Data Integrity - Trump's actions are viewed as an attempt to deflect blame for poor employment figures, akin to blaming referees after a sports loss, which could undermine public trust in economic data [2] - The intervention in the BLS raises fears that future data may be politically influenced, potentially damaging the credibility and authority of the agency [2][3] - The former BLS director emphasized the importance of reliable data for decision-making by businesses and policymakers, warning that political interference could lead to poor economic decisions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged, amidst speculation about potential rate cuts [1][3]. Economic Data and Market Reactions - Prior to the meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut were over 65%, with a nearly certain outlook for a cut by the end of October. However, the Fed's decision dampened these expectations significantly [3]. - Following the announcement, the likelihood of a September rate cut dropped to approximately 40%, while the probability for an October cut rose to about 80% [3]. - Economic indicators show a mixed picture: the U.S. economy rebounded strongly in Q2 2025 with an annualized GDP growth rate of 3%, surpassing the expected 2.4% [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, with the core CPI increasing by 2.9%, slightly below expectations [3]. - The unemployment rate has decreased to 4.1%, but job growth in the private sector has slowed significantly, with new jobs primarily coming from the public sector [4]. Internal Fed Dynamics - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, indicating internal divisions regarding the need for a rate cut [5]. - Some members of the Fed believe the current economic conditions do not warrant a rate cut, fearing potential inflation and long-term economic stability issues [7]. - Conversely, proponents of a rate cut argue that the slowing job market and global economic uncertainties necessitate action to stimulate growth [7]. Future Outlook - The outlook for a September rate cut remains uncertain, as the Fed will closely monitor economic developments and additional data before making decisions [8]. - Upcoming employment and inflation data will play a crucial role in influencing the Fed's rate decisions leading up to the next meeting [8]. - External factors such as international trade dynamics and geopolitical risks may also impact the Fed's policy decisions [10].

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of August 1, the gold ETF holdings were 953.08 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On August 1, the spot gold price closed at $3362.52 per ounce, reflecting a 2.23% increase, with an intraday high of $3363.20 and a low of $3281.29 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that only 73,000 new jobs were added in July, significantly below expectations, with downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June [3] - Economic output and consumer spending in the U.S. showed signs of slowing in the first half of the year, indicating a deteriorating economic situation [3] - President Trump controversially fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, claiming the data was "manipulated" to undermine him and the Republican Party, without providing substantial evidence [3] - The firing sparked widespread controversy, with criticism from senior Republican lawmakers, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, who stated that firing the director for accurate data that does not align with the president's expectations is problematic [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the current economic situation in the U.S., acknowledging a slowdown in overall economic activity while noting a stable job market and low unemployment rates [3] - High inflation remains a significant concern, preventing the Fed from lowering interest rates despite weakening growth momentum [3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had 12 voting members, with 9 supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while 2 members voted for a 25 basis point cut, indicating internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [5] - The differing opinions among Fed members highlight concerns about high inflation versus the potential negative impacts of economic downturns and tariff policies on the U.S. economy [6] - The dissenting votes from two members, both nominated by former President Trump, suggest potential political influences on the Fed's independence and decision-making process [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 29-30 meeting, with no rate cuts so far this year[1] - Market expectations for rate cuts this year have decreased from 2 times to 1 time following the meeting, aligning with the Fed's cautious stance[1] - The Fed acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, shifting from a previous optimistic outlook[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, reversing a -0.5% contraction in Q1, with net exports contributing positively[6] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49% in June, indicating slight improvement but still in contraction territory[6] - The July CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to 4.4%[7] - Risks include financial instability, unexpected Fed policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, and potential inflation rebounds[14]