开泰研究中心预计，2026年泰国对主要出口市场的出口增长趋向放缓，主要商品的出口均趋于萎缩。 中新社曼谷1月9日电泰国开泰研究中心9日发布报告称，预计2026年泰国出口总值将萎缩1.2%，主要因 素是美国关税措施可能进一步扩大，同时全球贸易前景趋于放缓。 农产品：预计2026年泰国农产品出口值将萎缩1.4%，主要源于价格相对稳定以及全球市场竞争加剧， 尤其是大米出口仍面临印度持续扩大出口的压力。同时，农产品产量也呈下降趋势，因为气候从2025年 水量充沛、更有利于支持农业生产的拉尼娜状态转为中性状态，导致农业用水可能出现不足。 涉农工业产品：预计2026年泰国涉农工业产品出口值仍可保持增长，但增速将放缓至1.0%。(完) 电子产品：预计2026年泰国电子产品出口值将在上年强劲增长后萎缩约3.1%，主要源于对美国市场出 口面临压力，尤其是集成电路和半导体产品面临被美国依据232条款加征进口关税的风险，其他电子产 品如硬盘驱动器、手机零部件等也将在此前出口加速之后出现放缓。 家用电器：预计2026年泰国家用电器出口值将萎缩1.5%，主要由于空调机和电冰箱出口放缓，部分原 因是某些电器生产基地从泰国转移至越南。 汽 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision to lower rates comes amid a complex economic environment, influenced by both domestic and international factors, including unprecedented challenges to the Fed's independence from political interference [1] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of volatility, with GDP growth rebounding in Q2 primarily due to a decline in imports rather than significant internal demand growth [2] - Employment trends indicate a cooling labor market, with June marking the first decline in job growth in five years [2] - The overall inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, reflecting moderate price increases despite tariff pressures [2] - Future rate cuts may occur if there are no significant changes in domestic or foreign policy, with expectations for additional cuts in the coming year [2][3] - The Fed's approach to rate cuts appears to be cautious, balancing the need to monitor economic conditions while retaining policy flexibility to address potential inflationary pressures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P Global Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.7 in August, significantly above July's 49.2, marking the first return to expansion territory in seven months, indicating a notable improvement in the business environment [1] Group 1: Business Environment - The increase in PMI reflects a significant improvement in the business environment, despite ongoing declines in overseas and mainland orders due to U.S. tariff measures [1] - Overall order demand remains stable, primarily supported by the local Hong Kong market [1] Group 2: Employment and Production - Private enterprises have resumed hiring, although the increase is modest, as business operations become more active and order demand stabilizes [1] - The pace of procurement activity contraction has slowed down [1] Group 3: Cost and Pricing - Rising raw material prices have led to an increase in input costs, although the rise is more moderate compared to the previous month, while output prices remain largely stable [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - Several forward-looking indicators continue to trend downward, with businesses still working through backlogged orders and further reducing procurement activities, suggesting that production may rely on clearing backlogs for support [1]

Core Point - The visit of Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizawa Ryozo, to the United States for tariff negotiations has been canceled due to the need for further clarifications during discussions with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Visit Cancellation - Akizawa Ryozo was scheduled to depart from Tokyo's Haneda Airport on August 28 for Washington [1] - The meetings were intended to discuss U.S. tariff measures with members of the Trump administration [1] - It remains uncertain whether Akizawa Ryozo will reschedule the visit to the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai government has approved a memorandum of understanding for the import of labor from Sri Lanka, with an immediate provision of 10,000 workers, amidst a broader strategy to supplement the workforce with labor from other countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Nepal [1] Group 1: Labor Import Strategy - The Thai government plans to introduce 10,000 workers from Sri Lanka, with over 30,000 registered applicants currently [1] - Additional labor groups will be sourced from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Nepal to meet workforce demands [1] Group 2: Labor Market Outlook - The Labor Minister expressed confidence that the domestic job market remains robust, asserting that there are ample employment opportunities available for job seekers who are flexible in their job choices [1] - The minister believes that U.S. tariff measures will not negatively impact the Thai labor market or lead to increased unemployment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's economy continues to show resilience with a GDP growth of 3.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly higher than the previous quarter's growth of 3.0% [1][2] Economic Performance - The GDP for Q2 2025 increased by 0.4% compared to Q1 2025 after seasonal adjustment [1][2] - Private consumption expenditure rose by 1.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, recovering from a decline of 1.2% in Q1 2025 [1] - Government consumption expenditure recorded a real increase of 2.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 0.9% in Q1 2025 [1] - Gross fixed capital formation increased by 2.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, following a 1.1% rise in Q1 2025 [1] - Goods exports saw a significant increase of 11.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, accelerating from 8.4% in Q1 2025 [1] - Goods imports rose by 12.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025, compared to a 7.2% increase in Q1 2025 [1] - Service output grew by 7.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 6.3% in Q1 2025 [1] - Service input increased by 7.0% year-on-year in Q2 2025, compared to 4.7% in Q1 2025 [1] External Factors - Strong external demand and improved local demand supported the economic expansion in Q2 2025 [2] - The "export rush" effect was driven by robust goods exports and a temporary easing of U.S. tariff measures [2] - The tourism sector's growth and increased cross-border transport contributed to the significant expansion of service output [2] Future Outlook - The outlook for Hong Kong's economy remains positive, supported by steady growth in the mainland economy and government measures to boost consumption and attract investment [3] - However, uncertainties in the external environment, including renewed U.S. tariffs and unclear interest rate policies, may impact future economic performance [3] - The anticipated decline of the "export rush" effect later in the year could also influence economic dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The Japanese government and the United States reaffirmed their positions regarding U.S. tariff measures and engaged in in-depth discussions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is almost no evidence suggesting that any country can avoid the tariff measures imposed by the United States [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese government, led by Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroshi Matsuno, is committed to addressing fiscal issues, including rice prices and energy concerns, as well as responding to U.S. tariff measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, indicated that if the impact and uncertainty of U.S. tariff measures continue to spread in the economy, and if cost pressures on inflation are controlled, a rate cut may be necessary [1] Group 1 - The potential need for interest rate cuts is linked to the ongoing effects of U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy [1] - The statement highlights the importance of managing inflationary cost pressures in the context of economic uncertainty [1] - The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring external economic factors that could influence domestic monetary policy decisions [1]