Group 1: Export Forecasts - Thailand's total export value is expected to shrink by 1.2% in 2026, primarily due to the potential expansion of U.S. tariff measures and a slowing global trade outlook [1] - The export growth to major markets is projected to slow down, with key products experiencing declines [1] Group 2: Electronic Products - The export value of Thailand's electronic products is anticipated to decrease by approximately 3.1% in 2026, mainly due to pressures in the U.S. market, particularly for integrated circuits and semiconductor products facing tariff risks under Section 232 [1] - Other electronic products, such as hard disk drives and mobile phone components, are also expected to see a slowdown after previous export acceleration [1] Group 3: Home Appliances - Thailand's home appliance export value is forecasted to decline by 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to a slowdown in air conditioner and refrigerator exports, partly because some production bases have shifted from Thailand to Vietnam [1] Group 4: Automotive and Parts - The export value of Thailand's automotive sector is expected to shrink by 3.0% in 2026, driven by increasing competition from Chinese products [1] - Additionally, stricter carbon emission and safety standards in Australia, a key export market, pose further challenges for Thai automotive exports [1] - The automotive parts exports to the U.S. are predicted to be significantly impacted by Section 232 import tariffs [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Thailand's agricultural product export value is projected to decrease by 1.4% in 2026, mainly due to stable prices and intensified global market competition, particularly with rice exports facing pressure from India's expanding exports [2] - Agricultural production is also expected to decline due to a shift from favorable La Niña conditions in 2025 to a neutral state, potentially leading to water shortages for agriculture [2] Group 6: Agro-Industrial Products - The export value of Thailand's agro-industrial products is expected to maintain growth, but the growth rate will slow to 1.0% in 2026 [3]

Economic Outlook - The Korea Financial Institute predicts a 2.1% growth in the South Korean economy by 2026, primarily driven by a recovery in domestic demand [1] - Private consumption growth is expected to rise to 1.6%, while construction investment is forecasted to rebound from -8.9% to 2.6% [1] Export and Trade - Export growth is anticipated to decline to 0.8% due to the slowdown in global trade, leading to a narrowing of the current account surplus [1] Inflation and Prices - The consumer price inflation rate is projected to decrease to 1.8%, although uncertainties remain regarding U.S. policy direction and geopolitical risks [1] Financial Sector Challenges - The financial sector faces multiple challenges, including potential volatility in the stock market due to credit financing [1] - The banking industry may experience deterioration in soundness indicators due to pressure on net interest margins and adjustments in risk-weighted assets [1] - The insurance industry is expected to see slowed growth due to the impacts of an aging population [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) highlights that recent tariff measures are significantly impacting global trade, with tariff uncertainty putting pressure on business confidence, investment, and supply chains, making it one of the most destructive forces in the global trade environment [6]. Group 1: Current Trade Environment - Global trade is currently stagnant, and recent data suggests that this slowdown may deepen due to weak consumer demand, high interest rates, and tighter fiscal policies, which are suppressing cross-border goods flow [4][6]. - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% in June to $60.2 billion, with the goods trade deficit dropping by 10.8% to its lowest level since September 2023 [6]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policies - The "reciprocal tariff" policy initiated during President Trump's second term has been fully implemented, creating a differentiated tariff system covering strategic industries like steel, aluminum, and copper, affecting 69 trade partners with tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% [5]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has surged from 2%-3% before Trump's potential return to 18.3%, marking the highest level since 1934 [6]. Group 3: Future Trade Projections - The WTO has downgraded the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, warning that recent tariff adjustments will negatively impact global trade prospects [9]. - Analysts from Capital Economics indicate that the post-pandemic trade rebound has ended, with trade volumes now stagnating, and structural and cyclical factors are dragging down trade [9]. Group 4: Challenges for Developing Countries - A recent UN report highlights that landlocked developing countries face significant structural inequalities in the global economic system, with transportation costs being 40% higher than coastal countries due to geographical disadvantages [10]. - Exports from landlocked developing countries to China have doubled since 2015, but imports have grown even faster, reaching approximately $78.3 billion in 2024, indicating a trade imbalance [10].

Group 1 - The central bank of Malaysia indicates that the economic growth outlook is skewed to the downside, primarily due to a slowdown in global trade [1] - Future economic growth is expected to be supported by resilient domestic demand [1] - The decision to lower the benchmark interest rate is a preemptive measure to address moderate inflation prospects, aimed at maintaining stable economic growth [1]