1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

本文源自：格隆汇 12月5日，光大证券国际产品开发及零售研究部预期，2026年上半年主要央行维持宽松政策以稳定经 济。美国关税政策及美国政府停摆天数创纪录，虽然短期影响市场情绪，但明年上半年美国仍可能降息 一次，将支持资金流向新兴市场，有利内地及香港股市向上。 光大证券国际证券策略师伍礼贤表示，该行认为恒指明年有机会再次见到30000点以上的水平。在可关 注板块方面，该行认为在2026年，中资金融、智能科技、能源有色、本地金融等四大板块仍存在不错的 投资机遇。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices remain stable and are expected to achieve a fourth consecutive month of gains, supported by indications that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates next month [1][4] - As of Friday, gold prices approached $4,170 per ounce, with a weekly increase of over 2% [1] - Swap traders anticipate an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - A record U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economy for both the Federal Reserve and investors [4] - Precious metal prices have been rising almost every month this year, potentially achieving the best annual performance since 1979 [4] - Significant central bank purchases and inflows of non-sovereign funds into exchange-traded funds have driven metal prices to a historical high of over $4,380 last month [4] - Gold prices have remained stable above $4,000 per ounce this month after a pullback from peak levels [4] - As of the report, gold prices increased by 0.3% to $4,171.18 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index slightly declined [4]

Retail Data Overview - In September 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4% and down from the previous 0.6%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rose by 0.3%, matching expectations but revised down from a previous 0.6%[2] Market Reaction - Following the retail data release, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.43%, 0.91%, and 0.67% respectively[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.01%, while the 2-year yield also decreased by 3 basis points to 3.43%[3] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Consumer confidence index dropped from 58.2 to 55.1 in September, indicating reduced consumer spending willingness[7] - Non-essential spending decreased in categories such as non-store retail (-0.7%), sports and hobbies (-2.5%), and clothing (-0.7%)[5][9] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the combination of tariff policies and government shutdown risks has negatively impacted consumer spending capacity[4] - Despite the weak September data, the potential for a December interest rate cut remains uncertain, with a 50% probability forecasted[4][12] Future Consumption Trends - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption season in the U.S., with events like Thanksgiving and Christmas expected to boost demand[8] - The easing of trade tensions and the resumption of government operations are anticipated to improve consumer sentiment moving forward[8]

从之后的走势看，昨日周二亚盘开盘后，黄金小幅冲高，涨至4155美元遇阻，亚盘盘中金价继续试探， 但均在4150美元附近遇阻，欧盘盘中金价回落4109美元企稳，美盘开盘时再探4150美元遇阻，回落4111 美元企稳后，黄金继续上探，刷新日高4159美元，但很快遇阻回落，最终回吐全天涨幅，录得一根阴十 字星。总体来看，黄金虽然存在反弹需求，但短期压制明显，且临近感恩节，市场行情略显平淡。 市场对美联储12月降息的预期再次升温，推动黄金价格反弹，短期技术面也显示，黄金短线存在反弹需 求，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4100美元，其次4070美元，上方压力关注4150美元附近的突破 情况，向上突破可以关注4200美元。 分析，早些时候由于美国政府停摆，大量关键经济数据缺失，美联储多位官员讲话，对12月是否继续降 息持谨慎立场，导致12月降息概率，从一个月前的9成降至不足4成，支撑美元刷新半年新高，黄金价格 因此承压，此后随着停摆结束，缺失的经济数据逐渐公布，特别是美联储三把手讲话，表示劳动力市场 降温，近期仍有进一步降息的空间，美联储12月降息概率，一天时间从不足40%上升至70%，本周继续 升至81%，市场重新 ...

晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝高位运行。宏观上市场目前押注美联储将在下个月再次 降息。周四推迟公布的美国非农就业报告对劳动力市场的描述喜忧参半， 几乎没有改变美联储在 12 月降息的预期，因为决策者们仍在美国政府停摆 带来的经济迷雾中犹豫不决。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观 ...

上周五，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，鉴于劳动力市场逐渐放缓，短期内仍有降低借贷成本的空间，不 过其他官员的态度则更为谨慎。在威廉姆斯发表此番言论后，黄金价格一度回升至4100美元，随后走 低，最终回落至4050美元附近。 智通财经APP获悉，周一亚洲早盘，黄金价格保持稳定。市场正在评估美联储在年底前再次降息的可能 性。截至发稿，现货黄金价格在4050美元/盎司附近波动，此前在周五下跌了 0.3%。美元现货指数上涨 了 0.1%。银、铂和钯的价格也都小幅上涨。 美国政府停摆导致经济数据的发布被推迟，而这些数据通常是市场用来评估降息可能性的重要依据。定 于本周二公布的美国 9 月零售销售和生产者价格数据，以及定于周三公布的失业金申请数据，将为经济 状况提供一个急需的温度检测。期货交易员预计美联储下个月降息25个基点的可能性略高于69%。 自 10 月 20 日金价飙升至每盎司 4380 美元的纪录高位以来，黄金市场一直处于盘整阶段。今年迄今， 金价仍上涨了约 55%，这得益于贸易和地缘政治的不确定性加剧，以及对许多政府财政状况恶化状况 的担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic despite recent fluctuations, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened at $4084.59 per ounce, hitting a weekly low of $3997.78 before reaching a high of $4132.38, ultimately closing at $4064.80, reflecting a weekly range of $134.6 and a decline of $19.79 or 0.48% [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with expectations of a bullish trend in the longer term, despite short-term resistance [3][5]. Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve has not indicated an end to the easing cycle, with many officials suggesting further policy loosening over time, which supports the case for future rate cuts [5]. - Recent strong employment data and mixed signals from Fed officials have tempered immediate rate cut expectations, but the overall sentiment remains that a rate cut in early next year is likely [5][9]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for a global rate cut cycle in 2026 are providing strong support for gold prices [5]. - The absence of employment data due to government shutdowns raises concerns about decision-making and unemployment rates, further underpinning gold's appeal as a safe haven [5]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices closed above the 10-week moving average, indicating potential for further gains, with the 10-week moving average serving as a key support level [7]. - The current price action suggests a consolidation within a triangular pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support levels at $3930 and $4045 [9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal significant divisions regarding future monetary policy adjustments, indicating uncertainty in the direction of future rate changes [1][2] - In October, the Federal Reserve implemented its second rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the fifth cut since September 2024 [1] - The minutes show that several participants opposed the October rate cut, while others believe a December cut is likely, but many think it may not be appropriate due to ongoing inflation risks [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days has hindered the availability of economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2] - Current economic data does not strongly support a third consecutive rate cut, as overall inflation remains above target levels, with no clear signs of a return to the 2% target [2] - The Federal Reserve plans to officially stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, which may influence future rate adjustments [2] Group 3 - The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, reaching a four-year high, has created divergent market expectations [3] - The December meeting of the Federal Reserve will be closely watched, as its decisions significantly impact global financial markets [3] - Following the meeting minutes, the U.S. dollar strengthened while the Japanese yen weakened, with the dollar index reaching 100.35, close to a six-month high [3] Group 4 - The future trajectory of gold prices is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with central bank policies influencing market directions as year-end approaches [4]

我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性；已有数据完全足 以支撑12月再次降息的发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 在10月的FOMC中，鲍威尔将当前环境称之为"迷雾中开车，需小心行驶"，并将市场预期向12月不降 息方向引导。自那之后，联储官员普遍转向鹰派，强调通胀的上行风险并支持12月暂停降息：12月降 息预期一度从完全定价跌至不足30%。 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9月非农的数据指向了12月继续降息的必要性。 由于非官方的ADP小非农以及谘商会等数据在9-10月表现较差，此前市场对于9月非农的新增就业预 期并不高（约5万人左右水平）；与此同时，在"供需双弱"的背景下，市场却并没有对失业率的上行形 成一致预期。换言之，此前6-8月失业率的再度上行并没有得到足够的重视，但这恰恰是9月非农报告 中最"扎眼"的部分。 哪怕9月新增就业再怎么超预期，也仅在11.9万人水平；考虑到6月与8月都是负增长，在如此大的波 动中，更无法得出非农已经"企稳"的结论。更何况，从三个月平均增长水平来看，与今年上半年都有 明显差距。 在劳动力 ...