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瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251105
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2512 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6321 yuan/ton. Last week, the production and capacity utilization of styrene decreased due to the shutdown and maintenance of some devices. The downstream operating rate mainly declined, and the consumption of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS decreased slightly. Factory and port inventories decreased, but the inventory pressure remained high. The spot price of pure benzene and ethylene CFR Northeast Asia continued to be weak, the cost of non - integrated processes decreased, and the profit was repaired. This week, the impact of shutdown devices is expected to expand, and the production and capacity utilization of styrene are expected to continue to decline. Downstream devices have the expectation of increasing load, which may further deepen the short - term tight balance of styrene supply and demand, but the positive impact of supply - demand improvement is limited under high inventory pressure. The current integrated profit of styrene is close to the break - even line, indicating low valuation. Pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 6214 for the daily K - line of EB2512 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6321 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 389,583 lots, a decrease of 125,523 lots; the long position of the top 20 holders was 438,372 lots, a decrease of 2,383 lots; the net long position was - 26,139 lots, a decrease of 9,518 lots; the short position was 464,511 lots, an increase of 7,135 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 6358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the open interest was 384,902 lots, a decrease of 16,126 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of styrene was 6752 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 660 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price was 794 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton; the mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 6075 yuan/ton (a decrease of 100 yuan/ton), 6540 yuan/ton (a decrease of 65 yuan/ton), 6370 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 6400 yuan/ton (a decrease of 60 yuan/ton) respectively [2] 3.3上游情况 - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 741 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 731 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 662 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 662.52 US dollars/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 244 cents/gallon; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 675 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the market prices in the South, East, and North China regions were 5450 yuan/ton, 5405 yuan/ton (a decrease of 15 yuan/ton), and 5230 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4产业情况 - The total styrene operating rate was 66.72%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 186,036 tons, a decrease of 10,231 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 109,800 tons, a decrease of 11,200 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 62.24% (an increase of 0.26 percentage points), 72.1% (a decrease of 0.7 percentage points), 52% (a decrease of 1.8 percentage points), 35% (an increase of 1 percentage point), and 66.71% (a decrease of 3.86 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6行业消息 - From October 24th to 30th, China's styrene production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week to 323,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.53% week - on - week to 66.72%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 0.18% week - on - week to 271,500 tons. As of October 30th, the styrene factory inventory was 186,000 tons, a decrease of 5.21% week - on - week. As of November 3rd, the inventory in the East China port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 7.10% week - on - week; the inventory in the South China port was 27,900 tons, a decrease of 10% week - on - week. From October 24th to 30th, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 6,860.06 yuan/ton, and the profit of non - integrated devices was repaired to - 400 yuan/ton [2]
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251022
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 10:30
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cost of non - integrated styrene decreased and the loss deepened as the prices of pure benzene and ethylene remained weak. The supply of styrene is expected to decline slightly due to the expanding impact of previously shut - down plants. The mismatch between upstream and downstream production capacity launches may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. Terminal demand is weak, and the demand growth space of styrene may be limited. However, due to the low profit of integrated plants, the cost support is gradually strengthening. In the short term, styrene is expected to strengthen with the rise of oil prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6538 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the trading volume was 205,417 lots, down 88,489 lots; the long position of the top 20 was 434,796 lots, down 15,741 lots; the short position was 442,328 lots, down 16,687 lots; the net long position was - 7,532 lots, up 946 lots; the open interest was 160,726 lots, down 45,267 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,107 lots, unchanged; the closing price of the November contract was 6538 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of styrene was 6834 yuan/ton, unchanged; FOB South Korea was 791.5 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars; CFR China was 801.5 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars; the mainstream price in the Northeast was 6450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in the South China was 6550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in the North China was 6395 yuan/ton; in the East China was 6465 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia price of ethylene was 781 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 771 dollars/ton, unchanged; CIF Northwest Europe was 683.5 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars; FD US Gulf was 457 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 671.33 dollars/ton; in the US Gulf's FOB was 251 cents/gallon; in Rotterdam's FOB was 649 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; the market price in the South China market was 5450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in the East China market was 5435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the North China market was 5300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 71.88%, down 1.73 percentage points; the national inventory was 193,420 tons, down 443 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 202,500 tons, up 6,000 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 122,500 tons, up 1,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 62.53%, up 21.79 percentage points; ABS was 73.1%, up 0.6 percentage points; PS was 53.8%, down 0.8 percentage points; UPR was 34%, up 14 percentage points; styrene - butadiene rubber was 70.28%, up 0.23 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, styrene production decreased by 2.33% to 339,400 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%. The downstream operating rate of styrene mainly increased, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 13.93% to 273,200 tons. As of October 16th, the factory inventory decreased by 0.23% to 193,400 tons, the East China port inventory increased by 3.05% to 202,500 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 8.2% to 33,000 tons. The non - integrated cost decreased to 7128 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 588 yuan/ton [2]
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251020
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 09:48
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of styrene is expected to decline slightly due to the expanded impact of previously shut - down plants, with no new maintenance or restarting plants this week [2]. - There is a mismatch in the production schedules between upstream and downstream, which may deepen the supply - demand contradiction as 1.2 million tons of styrene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in October, while the downstream EPS, PS, ABS production capacity is concentrated from November to December [2]. - The terminal demand is weak, and the growth space of styrene demand may be limited due to high inventory and low profit in some downstream sectors [2]. - The cost of non - integrated styrene has decreased, and the loss has deepened. The cost support is gradually strengthening as the profit of integrated plants is low [2]. - Although the supply - demand situation of styrene is weak, the valuation of the November contract is low, and there is an expectation of positive macro - policies in late October, so the downward space in the future may be limited [2]. - Technically, the short - term downward trend of EB2511 may continue, but the decline space may be limited as the RSI indicators show the price is in the oversold range [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract is 453,930, and the closing price of the November contract is 6,365 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 9,570 hands to 263,109 hands [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 35,433 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB South Korea intermediate price is 793 US dollars/ton [2]. - The mainstream prices in different regions have declined to varying degrees, such as the Northeast region at 803 yuan/ton, the South China region at 6,610 yuan/ton, and the North China region at 6,515 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of ethylene and pure benzene in different regions have declined, such as the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene at 781 US dollars/ton, and the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf at 655 US cents/gallon [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the national inventory decreased by 443 tons to 193,420 tons [2]. - The inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons, and the trade inventory increased by 0.51 million tons to 12.15 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products such as EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber have changed to varying degrees, with the operating rate of EPS at 21.79% and that of ABS at 73.1% [2]. Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, styrene production decreased by 2.33% to 339,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88% [2]. - The downstream operating rate of styrene mainly increased, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, ABS increased by 13.93% to 273,200 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the factory inventory of styrene decreased by 0.23% to 193,400 tons, and the East China port inventory decreased by 2.67% to 196,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 11.59% to 30,500 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 7,128 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 588 yuan/ton [2].
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250922
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 09:46
苯乙烯产业日报 2025-09-22 预计小幅调整、变化不大。库存回归去化周期,只是目前库存压力仍偏高。成本方面,OPEC+增产影响持 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 续,全球原油中长期供强于需预期给到油价一定压力,只是短期地缘局势仍有不确定性。EB2511盘面趋势 免责声明 偏弱,日度K线关注6800附近支撑。 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 6928 405128 | -64 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 手) 19939 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 253473 6928 | -10606 -64 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 379614 | 43085 前20名持仓:净买单 ...
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250915
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 11:03
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 67 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) -12432 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7087 369534 | | 218394 7097 | 28213 67 | | | 手) | | | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, -35506 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 220017 | | -30154 | -2856 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) -9576 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) -80 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 399688 7314 | | 1498 862 | -283 -7 | | | 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 872 | | 7080 | 0 | | ...
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250901
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 09:32
下游行业开工负荷预计小幅调整,目前下游利润偏低、库存偏高仍抑制苯乙烯需求端增长。短期来看供需 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 矛盾难有改善,库存压力持续偏高。成本方面,全球原油供需偏弱,俄乌和谈持续推进,只是短期中东地 免责声明 缘恶化对油价仍有一定支撑。短期盘面趋势偏弱,技术上EB2510关注6800附近支撑。 苯乙烯产业日报 2025-09-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7013 392772 | -71 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 268617 7036 | 36043 -71 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | | 21811 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | ...
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in the styrene spot market is expected to remain with supply exceeding demand, and inventory pressure may continue to rise. The cost side shows that the supply - demand situation of crude oil remains with supply exceeding demand, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Technically, EB2510 should focus on the support around 7130 and the pressure around 7380 [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 7,285 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 59 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 360,058 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 238,288 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders are 314,773 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 21,036 lots. The closing price of the November contract is 7,295 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton. The open interest of the active contract is 256,661 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 47,741 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 holders are - 27,402 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 11,380 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders are 342,175 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 32,416 lots [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of styrene is 7,572 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 887 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The CFR China intermediate price is 897 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 7,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), 7,430 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton), 7,315 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), and 7,280 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf intermediate prices of ethylene are 826 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 821 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 852 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton), and 457 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf, Taiwan, and Rotterdam are 261 US cents/gallon (a decrease of 5 US cents/gallon), 744.67 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 686 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 18 US dollars/ton) respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China are 6,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6,095 yuan/ton (a decrease of 5 yuan/ton), and 6,130 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] Industrial Situation - The overall styrene plant production capacity utilization rate is 78.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. The national styrene inventory is 208,717 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,738 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 161,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons. The trade inventory in the East China main port is 76,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 58.08% (a month - on - month increase of 14.41%), 71.1% (unchanged), 56.4% (a month - on - month increase of 1.4%), 32% (a month - on - month increase of 2%), and 72.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%) respectively [2] Industry News - Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government is about to conduct a comprehensive rectification of the petrochemical and refining industries, gradually phasing out small - scale facilities and upgrading backward production capacity, while directing investment towards advanced materials. From August 8th to 14th, the overall output of Chinese styrene plants was 369,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76%, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 78.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. The main styrene contract changed to the October contract. EB2510 fell and then rebounded, closing at 7,285 yuan/ton. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene was 263,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.54%. As of August 14th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 208,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29% [2]
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250806
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 09:52
苯乙烯产业日报 2025-08-06 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 。国内供需矛盾缓解,但库存去化难度仍较大。成本方面,近期由于OPEC+增产影响持续、美国7月非农数 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 据不及预期,国际油价大幅回落;华东纯苯市场价波幅预计不大。技术上,EB2509关注7180附近支撑与74 免责声明 40附近压力。 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7285 | 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 3 手) | 190047 | 33369 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 309216 | -6946 10月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7314 | 6 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯( ...
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250709
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 09:46
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7350 | 74 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 295912 | -120401 69 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 383288 | -2062 9月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 7263 | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 263168 | -9774 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -13915 | 8848 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 397203 7914 | -10910 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 0 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 0 895 | -7245 -10 | | | 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 905 | -10 市 ...
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250701
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 09:33
研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7275 | -12 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 313250 | -379 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 369587 | 11875 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 7408 | 0 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 287004 | 6038 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -21961 | -1424 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 391548 8050 | 13299 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) -34 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 0 906 | -7245 - ...